All Time Baseball

Team Defense

2012-02-12T10:33:00.002-05:00

We've all recognized how much more competitive and challenging the draft has been this year. Between the 79 resims, the 1800s reset, and the focus an defense, great value picks have been hard to come by. The last reason is where I want to focus today. I've added defensive ratings to the roster grid to see how much teams are actually prioritizing overall defense, or whether or it simply appears that way.

The findings are quite interesting. While this has most certainly has been a defensive minded draft, not all owners have taken to theory. Below is my rough analysis of which teams have attempted to put a premium on the defender and which have ignored them.

(5 Points for Great defenders, 3 for a very good one, 1 for a good one. Plus 1.5 points for Ex armed catcher and 1 point for Vg catcher)

There is quite a bit of subjectivity here. For example, I considered a Av/50 infielder roughly the same as a Vg/110 one, or an Ex/110 is about the same as a Vg/60.

Opening Day Matchups

2012-02-12T08:32:00.003-05:00

With opening day a just a few short weeks ahead we can predict our Game 1 probable starters for the majority of home openers. First line below contains real life stats, second line is ATB historical.

Brad H @ Brian B
Sandy Koufax vs Addie Joss
(26-8, 2.04) vs (24-11, 1.16)
(7-18, 6.02) vs (11-12, 3.80)

Mike S @ Jay H
Pedro Martinez vs Cliff Lee
(18-6, 1.74) vs (17-8, 2.40)
(18-7, 2.70) vs (never used)

Mike G @ Joe T
Kevin Millwood vs John Tudor
(18-7, 2.68) vs (21-8, 1.93)
(9-7, 4.16) vs (7-9, 4.03)

Justin P @ Ivar A
Babe Adams vs Cy Young
(17-10, 1.98) vs (28-9, 2.08)
( 13-10, 3.93) vs (9-12, 4.15)

Jason S @ Matt B
Randy Johnson vs Garland Braxton
(21-6, 2.49) vs (13-11, 2.51)
(Never Used) vs (11-9, 3.77)

Steve C @ Sean S
Bill Bernhard vs Kevin Brown
(18-5, 2.15) vs (17-11, 1.89)
(12-7, 3.68) vs (10-10, 3.95)

Jeff B @ Shotgun S
Greg Maddux vs Al Orth
(19-2, 1.63) vs (20-12, 2.77)
(17-7, 2.77) vs (12-10, 3.80)

Lou P @ Fred B
Pete Alexander vs Walter Johnson
(31-10, 3.22) vs (36-7, 1.14)
(13-12, 4.11) vs (12-12, 3.78)

Joe V @ Dave K
Bill Swift vs Justin Verlander
(15-8, 2.70) vs (24-5, 2.40)
(1-4, 7.99) vs (Never Played)

Justin B @ Paulie N
Carl Hubbel vs Roger Clemens
(26-6, 2.31) vs (21-7, 2.05)
(Never Played) vs (11-12, 3.80)

Both Starters Not Determined
Brad P @ Allen C
TJ O @ Jason B

Sim Schedule

2012-02-12T07:28:00.001-05:00

Our season schedule has been posted - link to the right and here.

Season start date is Sunday, February 26. There is a chance this might be pushed out a week, as I will not be available much the week leading up to opening day. The volume of new players and handling of owner submitted lineups might be too much to accomplish in a few days after the draft ends (Feb 21st). We'll give it a shot though.

In a nutshell.

Lineups due every Sunday by 8PM except the first week. First week they are due by Saturday 8 PM.
I sim 2-3 games per night on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
The process starts again

We have a 12-week regular season, ending on May 18th. The playoffs start that Sunday, May 20th and run 3-weeks, ending the first week in June.

Of course, I will not be able to post sims 5 days a week for 12 weeks without missing a night. When occasions like that do occur, I will catch up on the sims the next night. (If I miss 3 games on Monday, 6 Games will be run on Tuesday).

Playoffs are simmed 1 game per series per night only.

Regular season lineup changes are permissible during the week only if an injury has occurring. If one has occurred, you can change any part of your lineup.

Playoff lineup changes can be made for each game.

Any questions let me know!

Battle of the Division Exhibition

2012-02-11T19:51:00.001-05:00

Combined all players from each division into a single team. Turned the AI loose and simmed 12 games per team.

Stats here.

8-4: NL West
6-6: AL East
6-6: NL East
4-8: AL West

The Party is Over

2012-02-09T20:27:00.003-05:00

Just a reminder that beginning tomorrow the draft timeslots will be 10 minutes instead of 30. This will continue through the end of the draft. Everyone will have between 2-4 picks each day.

I also added a new tab called "Drafted Players". It simply lists all selections in the order they were taken in one spot. Will be useful if you want to copy and paste into your own excel sheets.

The Barnstormers

2012-02-09T08:27:00.001-05:00

In what surely will go down as the best kept secret of the 21st century, the four top draft picks of ATB XIV organized a barnstorming league, playing twelve charity contests across the country.

Pedro's Bullets and Barry's Longballers each went 4-2, while Babe's Babe's and Mick's Commets finished 2-4. The best game of the bunch was a 14-12 Longballer win over the Babe's. Nobody pitched well, as the offenses combined for 33 hits, 6 of them home runs. Mel Ott had 5 RBI for Barry's team while Ty Cobb smacked 3 hits for Ruth's. The game ended when Nap Lajoie and Oscar Charleston each smacked run scoring singled in the Top of the 10th.

The highlight of the game though, was the mayhem and madness than ensued in the 8th. Down 6-4, the Longballers scored four runs speared by an Ott 2-run double. Not to be outdone, Ruth's squad came back with five of their own in the bottom half of the inning. After a lead off Ruth homer, Cobb later cleared the bases with a 3-run triple.

All the box scores and stats can be found here. Some quick items of interest I found:

Jesse Burkett batted .500 (10-20)
Ted WIlliams hit 5 HR and 10 RBI
Joe Morgan stole 5 bases
Pitching in general took a hit, with an average league ERA of 4.75. This can be expected as only the great batters have been drafted so far
Randy Johnson had a great game, 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 11K
So did Pedro, Maddux, Orth, Braxton, Young, Tannehill, and Blanton
Just about every one else got shelled.

Enjoy! Please note that obviously these stats are absolutely meaningless and purely for our own amusement.

List of Player Corrections

2012-02-08T21:24:00.000-05:00

Fred Carroll 1889 now as an Av catcher arm instead of no rating
Charles Johnson 1997 is now Av/1 at Catcher instead of Av/12. Catcher arm remains Vg

Chase Utley 2007 is now Ex/84 at 2b instead of Av/84
Adrian Gonzalez 2009 is now Ex/56 instead of Av/56

Roger Clemens 1986 had no fielding rating at pitcher, he is now Av/135
Nels Potter 1945 was listed as a Pr fielding pitcher, he is now Av
Fergie Jenkins 1971 had no fielding rating as pitcher, he is now Av/179
Mordecai Brown 1908 had no fielding rating as pitcher, he is now Av/1

2011 Miguel Cabrera now Fr/157 range at 1B, down from Av/157

1914 Eddie Collins is now Iron Man and Ex/61 at defense instead of Ex/59

2001 Luis Gonzalez fielding now Ex/1 from Ex/20
2007 Alex Rodriguez fielding now Vg/70 from Av/130
1933 Chuck Klein now Iron Man
1912 Joe Jackson no Ex/119 instead of Ex/85

~~All Ken Griffey Jr years are now Vg range. In 1993 he is now Vg/54 in CF instead of Ex/100~~
1884 Orator Shaffer is now Ex/105 and not Ex/82

1948 Stan Musial is now Av/75 in RF instead of Fr/75
1908 Christy Mathewson now has a Vg Durability instead of Av

Ack. Found the season disk that proved Grffey was in fax an Ex range defender. Officially Ex in every year and Ex/54 in 1993.

Pitchers Range and Error rates will be updated as I see mistakes. These ratings have never been entirely accurate, as studies have shown DMB doesn't really pay much attention to them. Especially the ranges. I am not going to post every correction in this thread.

1930 Wood English has a 68 error rating at SS, not 8

1913 Miller Huggins is now Vg/58 instead of Vg/500
2008 and 2010 Josh Hamilton OF Arm now Ex instead of Av

And a special thanks to Dave and Fred who have found almost all of these. Thanks!

This list will be updated as needed

An Exercise Meant to Depress

2012-02-08T17:46:00.001-05:00

In the hopes that misery loves company, I thought I would post the general differences in where players are going from this year versus last year.

The reasons are three fold
- There are 6 more teams this year, meaning each round is longer of course.
- The new resims added a lot of clarity
- In a league steadily increasing the value put on defense, the Gossamer's drove the point home last year with a great team

Anyway you slice it though, the options presented to owners each round are simply not as good as they were a year ago, forcing us to draft players not as good as we're used to.

Below is a quick summary of what I mean. Each player drafted so far is categorized into groupings of how much earlier they have been taken this year.

Players Taken in the Same Round Each Year
Allen C - Jimmie Foxx(Rd1)
Brad H - Oscar Charleston(Rd1)
Brad P - Ross Barnes(Rd1)
Brad P - Dan Brouthers(Rd2)
Brad P - Mike Schmidt(Rd3)
Brian B - Honus Wagner(Rd1)
Dave K - Barry Bonds(Rd1)
Dave K - Jason Giambi(Rd3)
Fred B - Eddie Collins(Rd2)
Ivar A - Jeff Bagwell(Rd2)
Jason B - Mickey Mantle(Rd1)
Jay H - Rogers Hornsby(Rd1)
Jeff B - Greg Maddux(Rd1)
Joe T - Willie McCovey(Rd2)
Joe T - Harry Heilmann(Rd3)
Joe T - Chipper Jones(Rd4)
Joe V - Norm Cash(Rd1)
Justin B - John McGraw(Rd2)
Justin P - Mark McGwire(Rd2)
Lou P - Ty Cobb(Rd1)
Matt B - Tip O'Neill(Rd1)
Michael G - Rickey Henderson(Rd3)
Mike S - Pedro Martinez(Rd1)
Mike S - King Kelly(Rd2)
Mike S - Hughie Jennings(Rd3)
Sean S - Joe Jackson(Rd2)
Shotgun S - Ted Williams(Rd1)
Shotgun S - Al Orth(Rd3)
Steve C - Babe Ruth(Rd1)
Steve C - Billy Hamilton(Rd3)
TJ O - Lou Gehrig(Rd1)

Players Taken 1-2 Rounds Earlier This Year
Allen C - Bill Dickey(Rd2)
Allen C - Dick Allen(Rd3)
Brad H - Sandy Koufax(Rd2)
Brian B - Addie Joss(Rd2)
Brian B - Jesse Tannehill(Rd3)
Brian B - Dizzy Dean(Rd4)
Dave K - Pop Lloyd(Rd2)
Fred B - Walter Johnson(Rd1)
Ivar A - Joe DiMaggio(Rd1)
Jason B - Mickey Cochrane(Rd3)
Jason S - Randy Johnson(Rd1)
Jason S - Christy Mathewson(Rd2)
Jay H - Al Rosen(Rd2)
Jeff B - Josh Gibson(Rd2)
Jeff B - Duke Snider(Rd3)
Joe T - Stan Musial(Rd1)
Joe V - Benny Kauff(Rd3)
Joe V - Al Simmons(Rd4)
Justin B - Tris Speaker(Rd1)
Justin P - Fred Dunlap(Rd1)
Justin p - Babe Adams(Rd3)
Justin P - Jesse Burkett(Rd4)
Lou P - Frank Baker(Rd3)
Matt B - Garland Braxton(Rd3)
Michael G - George Brett(Rd1)
Michael G - Joe Morgan(Rd2)
Paulie N - Nap Lajoie(Rd1)
Paulie N - Lou Boudreau(Rd2)
Paulie N - Roger Clemens(Rd4)
Sean S - Arky Vaughan(Rd1)
Sean S - Ed Delahanty(Rd3)
Steve C - Bill Bernhard(Rd2)
TJ O - Cy Blanton(Rd2)
TJ O - Eddie Mathews(Rd3)

Players taken 3-5 Rounds Earlier
3 Earlier - Luis Gonzalez(Rd4)-Brad P
3 Earlier - Frank Robinson(Rd4)-fred b
3 Earlier - Buck Leonard(Rd2)-Jason B
3 Earlier - Mel Ott(Rd2)-Joe V
3 Earlier - Ken Griffey Jr(Rd4)-Michael G
3 Earlier - Cy Seymour(Rd4)-Sean S
4 Earlier - Willie Mays(Rd3)-Fred B
4 Earlier - Pete Alexander(Rd4)-Lou P
4 Earlier - Fred Lynn(Rd4)-Matt B
4 Earlier - Wade Boggs(Rd4)-Shotgun S
5 Earlier - Jackie Robinson(Rd3)-Jason S

Players taken 6-9 Rounds Earlier
6 Earlier - Cal Ripken(Rd4)-Jason S
6 Earlier - Cupid Childs(Rd3)-Justin B
8 Earlier - Alex Rodriguez(Rd4)-Ivar A
9 Earlier - Sammy Sosa(Rd3)-Paulie N

Players Taken 10 or More Rounds Earlier (we're only in Rd 4!)
11 Earlier - Tom Seaver(Rd3)-Brad H
11 Earlier - Cliff Lee(Rd3)-Jay H
12 Earlier - Cy Young(Rd3)-Ivar A
14 Earlier - Roger Connor(Rd4)-Justin B
17 Earlier - Orator Shaffer(Rd2)-Lou P
Not Picked - George Davis (Rd4)-Brad H
Not Picked - Bert Blyleven (Rd4)-Allen C

Times sure have changed!

But, two owners did find value. Congratulations Shotgun and Matt B, your 2nd round picks this year, were first rounders last year (Hugh Duffy and Larry Walker)

Roster Grid

2012-02-07T15:29:00.002-05:00

I'll update this occasionally as I have time. It's the roster grid form drafts past. Good tool to see what is going on in our division.

Linked to the right as well.

Non Critical Player Card File Updates

2012-02-07T11:00:00.000-05:00

Wanted to keep a log of any changes. These are non critical updates and only require a new download of the file if you want to utilize them.

Changes - 11:00 AM, February 7
- Mass update to pitcher defensive ratings
- Added team to the stat lines

Changes - 2:30 PM, February 6
- Included Team Name for Historical ATB stat lines
- Minor adjustments to Traffic Light parameters for BB/9

Quick Draft Recap

2012-02-06T21:40:00.002-05:00

I won't be doing this regularly, but thought it would be interesting to look at some draft strategies so far. Of course, many of these teams can fit into more than one category at this point; this was simply my initial reaction and purely for fun.

Team Balance
Jeff B - Maddux and Josh Gibson
Mike S - Pedro and King
Steve C - Ruth and Bernard
TJ O - Gehrig and Blanton
Dave K - Bonds and Pop

Pitching and Defense
Fred B - Big Train and Collins
Brian B - Addie and the Flying Dutchman
Brad H - Koufax and Charleston

Positional Scarcity
Mike G - Morgan and Brett
Paulie N - Boudreau and Nap

Great Deadball Hitters, Defense Matters
Justin B - Speaker and McGraw
Lou P - Cobb and Shaffer
Sean S - Arky and Shoeless
Brad P - Barnes and Brouthers (not the book store)

Offensive Power
Allen - Foxx and Dickey
Jay H - Hornsby and ? (hasn't made Rd 2 pick)
Joe T - Musial and McCovey
Joe V - Cash and Ott

Pitching Pitching Pitching
Jason S - Randy J and Christy

Complete Offense
Ivar A - Joe D and Bagwell
Jason B - Mantle and Leonard
Justin P - Dunlap and McGwire
Matt B - Tip and Canadian Walker
Shotgun - Teddy and Duffy

Rosters Beginning to be Posted

2012-02-06T21:19:00.000-05:00

With two rounds complete (or close enough) I've started to load up all of your team pages and rosters. As with years past, please check your players for data entry errors. Any errors found before the start of the season will be fixed. Once the season begins, your locked into the faulty player.

The reports are linked in various places on the blog and site, all under "League Results" headings.

Draft Procedure Clarification

2012-02-06T20:32:00.001-05:00

I have done a poor job of explaining the skip rules.

1) If your miss your time slot, you are skipped.
2) Once your skipped, the draft proceeds as fast as possible until the end of the day.
3) At the end of the day, the draft stops if their are any unfilled skips
4) If there are no unfilled skips, we may proceed to the second day.

Basically, we want to draft as fast as possible every day, regardless of time slots. Time slots are their as a worst case scenario - picks have to be in by "X" or you get skipped.

Today we has a situation were a person had the 2:00-2:30 slot and missed it. The person drafting at 2:30 made their pick right at 2:30. The person in the 3:00-3:30 time slot made their own pick seconds later at 3:31. This is valid.

(the above times are made up)

However, we are all friends. While the above is 100% valid and within all our rules, I do ask that everyone try to be courteous to others.

If you are skipping someone but see they are on the board, shoot them a board message that you are going to pick in 5 minutes or something. The poor guy could be in the can or something, or feeding a crying baby, unexpectedly away from his computer for a few minutes. If he doesn't respond in 5 minutes - go ahead and post.

I full realize the above is not enforceable and likely open to more questions than answers. My personal rule of thumb - if you wouldn't do it to your 85 year old grandmother, don't do it to your fellow ATB neighbor.

Draft on!

Introducing the ATB Player Cards

2012-02-06T11:39:00.000-05:00

I am giddy about an excel spreadsheet and not ashamed to say so. For years I have wished Diamond Mind Baseball would develop "Player Profile Pages" that would give owners a quick glance at how good the player is, what he's done in the past, etc. Unfortunately, the company has been putting most of its funding into an online version of the game and new enhancements have been hard to come by.

I've created an Excel workbook that summarizes the kinds of data you would expect on Player Profile. I tend to think of it as a digital baseball card.

An overview of functionality:

Historical Stat Lines
ATB Career Averages
79 and 100 Resim stat Lines
Real Life Stat Lines
Highlights to great stat occurrences (100 RBI, 20 Wins, etc)
Player Ratings such as Base Running, Durability, Clutch, etc
Fielding Ratings
Charts and Graphs (whoo hoo!)
Searchable Drop Down box that allows you to select the player in question.

The file is rather large and meant to updated annually much like a baseball card. Download it one time, and refer to it for you draft and during the season.

If there are fellow excel nerds out there, the sheet is protected, but if you want to monkey around with the formula's and functionality, just un-protect it - there is no password.

Finally, to entice you, below are some screens shots. The file can be downloaded here and is linked in various other parts of the site, including the owners resource box on the right.

If you run into any difficulties, drop me a note and I can address if possible.

Batters

Ratings and Player Selection Drop Down

Fielding Ratings for each eligible position

Historical Register

Charts

Full View

Pitchers

Pitcher Ratings

Charts

Pitcher Register

Full View

Introducing the ATB Historical Registers

2012-02-04T18:53:00.001-05:00

I was attempting to explain to one of the new owners the best place to get data to prepare for the draft. It starts with the 79 resims, but then we go to the 100 resims (for which I provide 6 files), and of course each individual season is loaded into separate season capsules. We also have the defense file, and to top it off, players are named differently across each of them.

Its bush league. Can't believe no one has shouted at me to make amends.

Now loaded to the ATB History Page is the new "ATB Historical Registers". This file outlines the known history of each player:

Results for every ATB Season
Career averages for ATB
100 Resim Results
79 Resim Results

All laid out in an intuitive manner, somewhat similar to Baseball-Reference or the back of a baseball card, only not nearly as awesome.

Here are some screen shots:

Enjoy!

Facebook Newsfeed

2012-02-04T07:11:00.001-05:00

Just a reminder to the new guys. If you are a heavy facebook user you can save some time and get these blog posts on your facebook news feed by clicking the like button on the lower right hand side of the blog.

Welcome Paulie N!

2012-02-03T05:58:00.001-05:00

Chris P ultimately decided he had too much going at work to give ATB the attention it needs. He's bowed out for the season, but I hope to have back next spring.

Please welcome Paulie N to the league, who will be taking over for Chris.

His picks are up, draft on!

Diamonds in the Rough

2012-02-02T22:22:00.002-05:00

If you're like me, the horror we call a draft board has already been wrecked. The early value picks are gone and one can predict the 2nd and 3rd rounds won't be much better. Last year our champion DC Chips drafted Ty Cobb and Stan Musial as their first and second round choices. This year, the two players were both mid 1st rounders selected at 13th and 14th. Last year Randy Johnson was a late 2nd rounder, selected 33rd overall. This year 22nd. The draft has tightened up as owners get smarter and I continue to publish resims (sorry JP!).

Given the competitiveness, I thought I would take a look back in our history to try to identify the Top-5 surprising seasons of all time. After all, it may come down to an unlikely hero to get our teams into the playoffs.

This is purely a subjective exercise. My definition of a surprise is certainly different than yours. In no particular order:

1973 Willie Stargell (MIC)

79 Resims: .267 / .322 / .527

ATB VIII : .282 / .341 / .644, 60 HR, 117 R, 145 RBI

Much of the data from ATB VIII has been lost so we don't know exactly where Stargell was drafted. Last season he went in the 4th round, at the 60th overall pick. We do know that no one expects 60 homers and 145 RBI that late in the draft.

Stargell didn't even lead the league in home runs or RBI, but he did lead a poor on paper Lakers squad to almost a .500 record.

1914 Steve Evans (WPP)

79 Resims: .296 / .351 / .443 in a platoon

ATB XI :: .361 / .407 / .539, 35 2B, 18 3B

Incredibly, Evans was an 11th Rounder picked 260th overall, and helped lead the Windy City Potato Pickers to one of the best records in our league's history. Evans was injured for about 30 games, keeping his Runs and RBI totals down to a meager 78 and 69 respectively, but he did bat 2nd against righties and 5th against lefties when healthy.

As a testament to how much better we are at drafting nowadays, he had many teammates that are now 1st or 2nd round picks - Ty Cobb, Babe Adams, Randy Johnson, Jeff Bagwell, and one of the league's best catchers, Bill Dickey. It's no wonder Windy City went 111-51.

1972 Don Sutton (FRL)

79 Resims: 11 W, 4.24 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

ATB VII :: 14-7, 2.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

And frankly, that 79 Resim ERA seems awfully low.

Sutton is so ill thought of by ATB owners he wasn't even drafted last year, but the Franklin Lakes Pillpoppers saw something in the righty, taking him in the 11th round and inserting him into the third spot in the rotation. It paid dividends, as the squad won 108 games before bowing out in the 1st round of the playoffs.

1966 Gary Peters (P10)

79 Resims: Did Not Get Drafted

ATB IX: 7-2, 1.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP,

What did I stumble upon here? 1966 Gary Peters has only been used twice in ATB history. Once for the Rocherster Beau Brummels he stunk, giving up 119 hits in 88 innings and amassing a 5.95 RCERA. He was truly bad, but also played in an extreme batters park, so forgive him a bit.

A few years earlier in ATB IX, Peters was a monster. His line: 125 IP, 108 H, 55 K in 58 games. He played in a batters park but did have very good defense behind him.

I wonder which Peters is real?

1912 Frank Baker (STL)

79 Resims: .285 / .328 / .415, 262 TB

ATB VIII:: .301 / .342 / .534, 380 TB

We all know Frank Baker is a good player, but would you have ever guessed he holds the 8th best single season mark for total bases in history? Better than Stan Musial ever did, better than Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Tip O'Neill, and a score of other batters typically picked ahead of him.

In ATB VIII Baker had what now must be ruled my favorite season of all time - 47 2B, 25 3B, and 23 HR. No other player has ever had 40 doubles, 20 triples, and 20 homers in the same season.

The St Louis Slammers were a PC run powerhouse that year, winning 88 games with Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Roger Maris, Carl Yastrzemski, Javy Lopez, and Baker all belting over 20 home runs. The scored 1001 in total but missed the playoffs.

Gavvy Cravath - Modern Day Saberist

2012-02-02T06:42:00.002-05:00

Gavvy Cravath, a career .747 OPS hitter in ATB, was well ahead of his time. In the 1910s there was no MVP award, but there was a Chalmer's award given to the league's best batter along with a shiny new car. Here's Joe Posnanski's summary of an article written by Cravath that will undoubtedly ring true to most ATB'ers today

...but I do want to point out that among the many anti-batting average articles in Baseball Magazine was an absolute classic called “What the Records Cost Me,” written by Cactus Gavvy Cravath, a Deadball Era slugger who led the league in home runs six times in the seven years from 1913 to 1919. He also led the league in runs scored once, in walks once, in RBIs twice, in slugging twice, and in OPS+ three years in a row from 1913 to 1915. His 24 home runs were the “modern” record until Ruth came along.

But, of course, nobody really cared about any of that because batting average ruled the times. And Cravath never led the league in batting average.

“Very likely many people will look upon what I am going to say as the crabbing of an old fossil,” Cactus Cravath wrote (undoubtedly in the words of F.C. Lane. “It makes very little difference to me, however, what they think.”

Well, that wasn’t true. He obviously did care. Cravath believed that he should have been better respected (and better paid) as a player, but wasn’t because everybody kept looking at batting averages instead of player value.

More: “There is a certain charm about the phrase ‘.300 hitter,’ which seems to appeal to the crowd. If a man is a .300 hitter he is a star. … I am not a statistician myself. I claim no ability to advise a system of batting averages which would be perfect or anywhere near it. But I do think that batting averages should do more than record the mere frequency of hits. They should do something to record the quality of hits. I do not even suggest that the present system should be discontinued. But I do claim that some system ought to be put in operation which would indicate a player’s actual batting ability as expressed in the length as well as the number of hits made.

“It is the real batter, according to my way of thinking, the man who wins games with his bat, who is being discriminated against by the present system.”

Cravath proceeded to explain why he, and not Jake Daubert, should have won the Chalmers Award in 1913. (The Chalmers Company would give a car to the best hitter in the league, as expressed by the highest batting average.) Jake Daubert hit .350 to Cravath’s .341. But Cravath hit 19 homers to Daubert’s two, drove in 128 runs to Daubert’s 55, and outscored him 78-76. What Cravath really was suggesting was some kind of slugging percentage, and he was smart to suggest it — he outslugged Daubert by 145 points.

“Someone will say I am complaining because I didn’t get the automobile,” Cravath wrote. “True, I think I earned it, but that isn’t the main thing.“

The whole article is actually about FC Lane, an early baseball Sportswriter who despised batting average and thought all hits are not created equal. In fact, he pegged modern day Linear Weight values for each type of hit almost exactly like Pete Palmer derived 50 years later. The article is well worth the read, and can be found here.

My favorite FC Lane line

He made the point that if someone has a 50-cent piece, a quarter, three times, four nickels and three pennies, we would say he has $1.28 and NOT that he has 12 coins. (“Anyone who offered such a system would deserve to be examined as to his mental condition,” Lane wrote — he did not suffer fools.)

Hat tip to Sean S for making me realize how perfect this was for ATB!

Changing Years After Draft Pick Rules

2012-01-31T20:17:00.001-05:00

Gents

Reminder on a rule. Everyone has second thoughts on a draft pick, you may request a year change once for each of your picks. Once you request a change, you cannot change it again.

For example, I drafted Ty Cobb 1917. I may change it once, to 1914 for example, but then he is locked in at 1914 for the rest of the year.

Changes are only allowed while the draft is running. Once the draft is over, you year is locked in.

History of Picks Eight Through Ten

2012-01-31T06:01:00.002-05:00

1876 Ross Barnes
ATB 13 - 0.361 / 0.428 / 0.409, 0.918 OPS, 0 HR, 100 R, 94 RBI

1941 Ted Williams
ATB 6 - 0.354 / 0.464 / 0.591, 1.055 OPS, 34 HR, 96 R , 97 RBI
ATB 7 - 0.326 / 0.460 / 0.531, 0.991 OPS, 33 HR, 103 R, 101 RBI
ATB 8 - 0.340 / 0.467 / 0.550, 1.017 OPS, 32 HR, 112 R, 114 RBI
ATB 9 - 0.347 / 0.444 / 0.539, 0.983 OPS, 31 HR, 121 R, 150 RBI
ATB10 - 0.344 / 0.442 / 0.510, 0.951 OPS, 23 HR, 106 R, 129 RBI
ATB11 - 0.344 / 0.462 / 0.585, 1.047 OPS, 30 HR, 89 R , 95 RBI
ATB12 - 0.313 / 0.428 / 0.485, 0.913 OPS, 30 HR, 110 R, 136 RBI
ATB13 - 0.317 / 0.418 / 0.494, 0.912 OPS, 30 HR, 120 R, 133 RBI

1995 Greg Maddux
ATB 6 - 15-7, 2.99 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 186 IP, 104 K, 36 BB
ATB 7 - 15-9, 3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 216 IP, 139 K, 43 BB
ATB 8 -15-10, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 211 IP, 120 K, 50 BB
ATB 9 - 16-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 211 IP, 121 K, 37 BB
ATB10 - 21-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 274 IP, 173 K, 41 BB
ATB11 - 13-7, 2.26 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 191 IP, 115 K, 33 BB
ATB12 - 14-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 IP, 120 K, 30 BB
ATB12 - 23-3, 1.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 262 IP, 160 K, 48 BB

History of Picks Five through Seven

2012-01-30T13:55:00.002-05:00

1927 Lou Gehrig
ATB 6 - 0.280 / 0.370 / 0.545, 0.915 OPS, 36 HR, 99 R , 104 RBI
ATB 7 - 0.305 / 0.381 / 0.607, 0.988 OPS, 41 HR, 118 R, 119 RBI
ATB 8 - 0.279 / 0.370 / 0.569, 0.939 OPS, 32 HR, 115 R, 110 RBI
ATB 9 - 0.313 / 0.438 / 0.620, 1.059 OPS, 31 HR, 71 R , 101 RBI
ATB10 - 0.319 / 0.390 / 0.614, 1.004 OPS, 40 HR, 103 R, 133 RBI
ATB11 - 0.272 / 0.389 / 0.533, 0.922 OPS, 35 HR, 98 R , 125 RBI
ATB12 - 0.314 / 0.407 / 0.621, 1.028 OPS, 44 HR, 114 R, 110 RBI
ATB13 - 0.309 / 0.396 / 0.588, 0.984 OPS, 34 HR, 88 R , 109 RBI

1924 Rogers Hornsby
ATB 6 - 0.304 / 0.379 / 0.483, 0.862 OPS, 17 HR, 121 R, 87 RBI
ATB 7 - 0.302 / 0.372 / 0.432, 0.804 OPS, 12 HR, 89 R , 88 RBI
ATB 8 - 0.292 / 0.372 / 0.468, 0.840 OPS, 24 HR, 95 R , 118 RBI
ATB 9 - 0.326 / 0.383 / 0.492, 0.875 OPS, 24 HR, 97 R , 87 RBI
ATB10 - 0.304 / 0.370 / 0.453, 0.823 OPS, 18 HR, 79 R , 92 RBI
ATB11 - 1925 USED
ATB12 - 0.322 / 0.392 / 0.485, 0.877 OPS, 19 HR, 105 R, 111 RBI
ATB13 - 0.334 / 0.408 / 0.461, 0.869 OPS, 15 HR, 93 R, 94 RBI

1932 Jimmie Foxx
ATB 6 - 0.232 / 0.319 / 0.456, 0.775 OPS, 40 HR, 91 R , 109 RBI
ATB 7 - 0.218 / 0.299 / 0.429, 0.728 OPS, 38 HR, 87 R , 94 RBI
ATB 8 - 0.267 / 0.336 / 0.514, 0.849 OPS, 46 HR, 102 R, 133 RBI
ATB 9 - 0.256 / 0.334 / 0.487, 0.821 OPS, 46 HR, 111 R, 115 RBI
ATB10 - 0.305 / 0.391 / 0.546, 0.937 OPS, 43 HR, 101 R, 115 RBI
ATB11 - 0.250 / 0.347 / 0.455, 0.802 OPS, 35 HR, 93 R , 98 RBI
ATB12 - 0.286 / 0.388 / 0.569, 0.957 OPS, 52 HR, 100 R, 123 RBI
ATB13 - 0.275 / 0.373 / 0.468, 0.841 OPS, 36 HR, 93 R , 110 RBI

ATB History of Top 4 Draft Picks

2012-01-28T19:05:00.001-05:00

1920 Babe Ruth
ATB 6 - 1921 USED
ATB 7-.237 / .400 / .563, 0.963 OPS, 42 HR, 102 R, 125 RBI
ATB 8-.324 / .453 / .744, 1.197 OPS, 63 HR, 144 R, 159 RBI
ATB 9-.252 / .411 / .574, 0.985 OPS, 45 HR, 98 R , 129 RBI
ATB10-.349 / .481 / .724, 1.205 OPS, 61 HR, 136 R, 151 RBI
ATB11-.290 / .480 / .625, 1.106 OPS, 51 HR, 127 R, 114 RBI
ATB12- 1921 USED
ATB13-.255 / .416 / .569, 0.984 OPS, 50 HR, 128 R, 112 RBI

2000 Pedro Martinez
ATB 6 - 21-7, 2.40 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 277 IP, 67 BB, 272 K
ATB 7 - 17-4, 2.29 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 232 IP, 50 BB, 238 K
ATB 8- 15-10, 3.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 236 IP, 48 BB, 211 K
ATB 9 - 19-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 229 IP, 51 BB, 237 K
ATB10 - 15-6, 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 269 IP, 52 BB, 291 K
ATB11 - 21-9, 2.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 257 IP, 55 BB, 267 K
ATB12- 15-10, 2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 213 IP, 47 BB, 224 K
ATB13 - 22-7, 2.63 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 260 IP, 69 BB, 269 K

2002 Barry Bonds
ATB 6-2004 USED
ATB 7-2001 USED
ATB 8-.275 / .453 / .576, 1.029 OPS, 45 HR, 127 R, 121 RBI
ATB 9-.313 / .470 / .547, 1.017 OPS, 36 HR, 125 R, 108 RBI
ATB10-.330 / .490 / .615, 1.105 OPS, 47 HR, 157 R, 125 RBI
ATB11-.308 / .452 / .580, 1.032 OPS, 42 HR, 120 R, 101 RBI
ATB12-2001 USED
ATB13-.283 / .460 / .549, 1.009 OPS, 41 HR, 125 R, 100 RBI

1957 Mickey Mantle
ATB 6- 1956 USED
ATB 7-.365 / .485 / .530, 1.015 OPS, 53 EBH, 124 R, 94 RBI
ATB 8-.342 / .463 / .547, 1.010 OPS, 63 EBH, 121 R, 118 RBI
ATB 9- 1956 USED
ATB10- 1956 USED
ATB11- 1956 USED
ATB12- 1956 USED
ATB13-.351 / .451 / .528, 0.980 OPS, 49 EBH, 119 R, 106 RBI

The Draft Underway

2012-01-28T13:21:00.001-05:00

Yesterday afternoon we commenced an ATB first, the casual draft, to start off the grueling 28 round process. Owners were allowed to begin drafting at their leisure, without slot time constraints. This period will last until February 6, were we'll then need to adhere to strict predetermined time slots to move things along. There will be no skips during the casual period.

The first four picks followed the blueprint of most ATB drafts. Babe Ruth at #1, followed by Pedro Martinez or Barry Bonds at #2 and #3 in no particular order, then Mickey Mantle at #4. If the typical path continues, we should expect Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig to fall next.

After that, things are likely to diverge from past drafts. Lady Baldwin is no longer a viable starter while Ross Barnes and to a certain extent, Fred Dunlap, have emerged as arguable Top 10 selections. We should not neglect Rogers Hornsby either, a typical 8-11 pick and it'll be interesting the order in which these big-3 second basemen fall.

There are several options for those looking to take take a starting pitcher as well. Outside of Martinez, only four other starters had ERA's under 3.15 and WHIP's under 1.20. If you desire an elite starter the 79-Resims show the only true options are Greg Maddux, Bill Bernhard, Walter Johnson, or Addie Joss.

Looking back on the past two drafts, two other players have caught they eyes of owners for Top-10 picks - Jimmie Foxx and Honus Wagner. The first basemen Double X hits for great power with good on base percentage while the Flying Dutchman is clearly the best shortstop on the draft board, batting .322 / .364 / .458 with Ex/74 defense.

Happy Drafting!

List of Reset Players

2012-01-28T06:00:00.000-05:00

This post will be updated as any requests come in.

All players 1872-1900
Mike Scott 1986
Johan Santana 2004
Eddie Mathews 1954
Eddie Plank 1915
Claude Hendrix 1914
Dave Davenport 1915
Cy Falkenberg 1914
Benny Kauff 1914 and 1915
Steve Evans 1914
Ed Lennox 1914
Bill Kenworthy 1914
Art Wilson 1914
Ted Easterly 1914
Bill Swift 1935 (not in 79 Resims)

Now that the draft has begun, the reset process is closed. However, if we find errors in players they can still be corrected up until opening day.

How Good Will Jose Bautista Be?

2012-01-25T20:46:00.000-05:00

The 2011 batter pool leaves a lot to be desired. According to my own personal draft board, not many batters from last season are worthy of entry into ATB. (Pitchers however, have some hidden gems).

The best of them, on paper at least, is likely to be Jose Bautista. For Toronto last year the right fielder batted .302 / .447 / .608 with 43 home runs. Historically, those are good but not great numbers, with the most important being the on-base percentage, ranked 237th all time. Digging deeper however, we find some telling statistics. When removing multiple seasons of the same player, Bautista jumps to 103rd all time. When looking at just righties, Bautista jumps up to 38th all time. Now we're on to something.

It's vital not to overlook the 'era' that DMB factors into the game engine so prominently. Run scoring in the AL was down to levels not seen since the early 1990s, so lets pretend I know what I am doing and compare Bautista's raw stats to AL seasons between 1988-1993 and see if we can gleam a look into how DMB might handle him. That 6-year period has roughly the same run scoring environment as the last two years.

The closest comp appears to be Ken Griffy Jr, circa 1992. No other batter had a combination of .300 / .400 / .600 with good home run power.

JB - .302 / .447 / .608, 43 HR, 24 2B, 132 BB

KG - .309 / .408 / .617, 45 HR, 28 2B, 96 BB

Bautista edge in on base is almost exactly due to his patience at the plate, drawing 36 more walks then "The Kid". Unfortunately for Bautista, Griffey isn't exactly a great ATB player, clocking in with an average of .255 / .317 / .434 with 28 home runs in the 79 resims. All in all it's about 17 points better then the average OPS in the study, with more power and less on base.

I found a nother comp, one of a much more recent vintage. In 2010 Josh Hamilton of Texas batted .359 / .411 / .633 with 40 2B and 32 HR. Lining up stats again:

JB - .302 / .447 / .608, 43 HR, 24 2B, 132 BB

JH - .359 / .411 / .633, 32 HR, 40 2B, 43 BB

Here, Hamilton was more of a free swinger with a large majority of his OBP due to his high batting average. DMB loves the center fielder, as he batted .318 / .385 / .461 in the 79 resims.

Comparing Griffey and Hamilton's 79 resim results:

KG - .255 / .317 / .434, 16 2B, 28 HR

JH - .318 / .385 / .461, 21 2B, 13 HR

To my eyes, Bautista has a good chance at being a blend of the two. His ability to draw more walks will likely put him north of Griffey's on base, but since he is batting 'only' .302 we cab predict a sub .275 Average limiting his OBP short of Hamilton's.

DMB also seems to like the blend of 40 doubles and 30+ home runs more than 40 home runs and almost 30 doubles. It's seems reasonable to assume his slugging will be close to Griffey's.

Having very little idea if the above is valid, I feel confident enough (ha ha) to project a line of .260 / .330 / .440. That .770 OPS for a right fielder is nothing to sneeze at. It's worthy of a starting job in our league, somewhere between Frank Robinson (.780 OPS) and Paul O'Neil (.765 OPS).

79 Resims

2012-01-24T20:19:00.001-05:00

(Posting the email from this morning here at the blog).

File can be downloaded here. Computer Draft here.

Well, after 14 hours of processing only 79 of 100 seasons were completed and I called it. Our 100 sim re-baseline has turned into 79 sims. Still, that's 2.7 million plate appearances and 4.1 million innings pitched - plenty to give us all an idea of general ranking.

A few things to sink your teeth into:

As I mentioned, this all PC driven. Joe Neale wasn't drafted, and not in the sim. In fact, 110 pitchers in all weren't drafted including years from Cannonball Titcomb, Jesse Tannehill, and Roy Halladay. 13 Batters weren't drafted, with most of them being modern time DH types like Edgar Martinez, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, and Milton Bradley.

We normally have 16-24 teams in a league. This sim had 56, so the player pool is thinned out considerably. This means fringe players will tend to do better in this type of league than in ATB. Don't get too excited over Al Wingo's .360 OBP, it will likely be much lower in an ATB league when he is facing better pitching every day. Personally, I feel the relative order of the players is more important than the stats they are putting up.

The pitching file includes each team's average defensive alignment. Since defense is critical to pitcher success, you can't evaluate a pitcher without it. Greg Maddux had a 2.92 ERA with a defense that averaged an Av/73 in the infield, AV/81 in the outfield, and an Av Catchers Arm. This is poor compared to other teams, so expect Maddux to be a bit better than he showed. Dick Donovan on the other hand, had stellar defense behind him and his ERA is likely too good to be true.

Finally, please pay attention to the total innings pitched or at bats. The aforementioned Donovan shows 6th best, but this is only a sample size issue - he averaged less than 10 IP per season.

All Time Great Team Update

2012-01-23T19:35:00.000-05:00

Last summer I ran an All Time Greatest team competition, where 32 teams were selected to compete in a series of 100 sims, including postseasons. Ultimately, a team of my own, the Manetheren Red Eagles, narrowly beat out the Lusitania Death Speakers squad for the title.

By the end of the last ATB season it was clear at least one new team could make a claim for being the all time greatest in our league's history. During the seasonal wrap up I quickly ran 50 seasons and found that yes, the Gold Country Gossamers may in fact be the best team of all time.

This weekend I re-did the 100 sims, only without keeping track of the playoffs. I ran 117,800 games to see which squad truly should be considered the best ever.

ATB XIII also was home to two other very good teams, the Newark Slam Dumps and "Big Dan and the Lady's". In the 20-sim wrapup, these two teams were #2 and #3 in the league by a healthy margin. These squads too were added to the latest All Time Great team competition.

To make room, the bottom three teams in the original competition were eliminated: Harlem Rangers (ATB X), John McDonald Fanclub (ATB XI), White Meadow Lake Black Stones (ATB XI). Congrats to these teams for making the competition, it's not a knock to be eliminated from this mix of teams.

Still #1, and by a large margin again, are Justin B's Gold Country Gossamers.

1) 0.586 Wpct - Gold Country Gossamers XIII (Justin B)
2) 0.554 Wpct - Lusitania Death Speakers XII (Mike S)
3) 0.554 Wpct - Manetheren Red Eagles IX (Lou P)
4) 0.550 Wpct - Pangea Tyrannosaurus Rex X (Justin P)
5) 0.540 Wpct - Newark Slam Dumps XIII (Sean S)
6) 0.539 Wpct - DC Chips X (Steve C)
7) 0.534 Wpct - Franklin Lakes Pill Poppers VII (Justin P)
8) 0.519 Wpct - DC Chips XII (Steve C)
9) 0.519 Wpct - La Chap au Sts Neanderthals XI (Justin P)
10) 0.518 Wpct - Big Dan and the Lady's XIII (Mike S)
11) 0.515 Wpct - Sonoran Black Diamonds XII (Justin P)
12) 0.513 Wpct - Dumai's Wells Oathbinders XII (Lou P)
13) 0.506 Wpct - Bellevue Freakin' Franch XI (Brad P)
14) 0.505 Wpct - Malkier Golden Cranes X (Mike S)
15) 0.500 Wpct - Franklin Lake Pillpoppers VIII (Justin P)
16) 0.497 Wpct - CosaNostra Deliverators IX (Mike S)
17) 0.494 Wpct - Hudson County Holy Rollers VIII (Mike S)
18) 0.494 Wpct - County Wicklow Ftg Shillelaghs IX (TJ O)
19) 0.491 Wpct - Dyersville Black Sox IX (Mike T)
20) 0.490 Wpct - Staten Island Dumpers X (Sean S)
21) 0.480 Wpct - Van Nest Phight Philben VIII (Jeff B)
22) 0.478 Wpct - Windy City Potato Pocketers XI (Lou P)
23) 0.478 Wpct - Helena Handbasket XII (Joe T)
24) 0.476 Wpct - Winterfell Direwolves X (Lou P)
25) 0.471 Wpct - Discordia Low Men VII (Lou P)
26) 0.466 Wpct - Lima de Equipo X (Brad P)
27) 0.463 Wpct - Pittsburgh Pulverizers VII (Sean S)
28) 0.460 Wpct - John McDonald Fanclub X (Jason B)
29) 0.459 Wpct - John McDonald Fanclub XII (Jason B)
30) 0.453 Wpct - Planet 10 XI (Ivar A)
31) 0.450 Wpct - Team Chutney VII (Brad P)
32) 0.450 Wpct - St. Louis Slammers VIII (PC)

One other time to note - the Red Eagles and Death Speakers are still virtually identical. After 117,000 games the two are only separated by a grand total of 6 wins. With such a large sample, 6 games is meaningless. Quite amazing.

Here's a file with a bit more detail.

To Baseline or Not to Baseline?

2012-01-23T16:21:00.003-05:00

Recently I have been thinking on another 100 Sim Baseline exercise. I feel I owe everyone something for the1800s fiasco, but don't want to do anything the majority disagrees with.

Would like to know your thoughts. Please vote to the right.

Pros

I've confused the heck out of everyone with the 1800s player issues. This will eliminate that confusion
New owners would benefit, making the league more competitive from top to bottom
For players in the database more than once (i.e., Ruth, Bonds, Schmidt, Pedro) we would have proof which year is better.

Cons

It may take away from the draft by eliminating a piece of the unknown.

It comes down to a preference for as competitive a league as possible vs. preserving the unknown.

Proposed Methodology

Computer Draft
56 Teams
25 man rosters
multiple players OK
Computer Manager Profile
No human tinkering. We will have a few players in the database that won't get playing time.

Please add comments via the comment box as opposed to email.

Ben Sanders Gaffe

2012-01-23T11:01:00.000-05:00

All - apologies. Looks like I neglected to reset Ben Sanders. He stinks too. The file in the original post has been updated.

Updated Eligibility Files

2012-01-22T09:42:00.002-05:00

The eligible batter and pitcher lists have been updated to reflect the new ballpark factors that are used when entering players into the system.

Baldwin, Titcomb wrecked; Dunlap emerges as star

2012-01-22T08:54:00.001-05:00

With the potential of league altering changes as a result tinkering with the 1800s player set I decided it was only fair to run and publish some tests. I cannot imagine having the #2 pick overall only to choose, for example, a version of Ross Barnes that is terrible.

To do this equitably, I only chose players from last season that had regular playing time, replaced them with the new and improved version, and ran 20 sims. This is not a 100 resim type of exercise that would baseline players in a neutral environment. It is a resim of last season, ripe with differing park factors, great or bad defense, and an unbalanced schedule. This exercise merely gives you a means to compare last seasons 20 sim results to a new data point, nothing more.

Many changes are off the charts, others will go unnoticed. Overall though, folks that were displeased the 1800s player set was ever created will undoubtedly rejoice as expectations will now be tempered across the board. More than twice as many players saw a decreases in OPS or ERA rather than an increase (26 vs 12, with 4 unchanged).

Notes:
- Keep in mind I updated the entire 1800s set, not just the players listed below.
- 20 sims is not nearly enough to prove anything. It's about 1/5th the at bats (or innings) generally considered necessary to peg a players true average stat line. Use your judgement

Batters
Fred Dunlap is now a star. I feel a bit vindicated here, since Dunlap has always ended up very high on my draft board but the DMB game engine always disagreed with me. With Vg/111 defense and a .900+ OPS at second base, Dunlap is now a legit Top-10 pick. However, keep in mind what I said earlier regarding ballparks - last season Dunlap did play in an extreme hitters park so these totals are assuredly inflated.

Cupid Childs, Ed Delahanty, Roger Connor, Ross Barnes, and George Wright all improved. Of interest among these few is the fact Childs increase his ability to hit singles making him a .300 batter and Delahanty had marginal improvements just about everywhere.

As mentioned, not everyone fared so well. Ed McKean took the biggest hit dropping from a .696 OPS to .551. I hadn't heard of him either, so not sure it matters. What does matter is some of the following names: Mike Tiernan, George Hall, Hughie Jennings, Fred Carroll, Candy Nelson, King Kelly (no!!!!!), Pete Browning, and Ed Swartwood all saw drops in results that are enough to impact the draft. Most lost 20-30 OPS points but Hall and Tiernan lost over 50.

All other batters stayed relatively the same. Big Names such as Hugh Duffy, John McGraw, Dan Brouthers, and Willie Keeler appear not to be impacted. Of those big names - Keeler and Jennings each lost about 15 points in batting average and their OBP's took a corresponding hit.

Pitchers
Toss those draft boards away! It's time to start anew as Cannonball Titcomb and Lady Baldwin have been wrecked. I say good riddance, they never should have been great in the first place. Baldwin went from a 3.44 ERA/1.27 WHIP to 5.03/1.61. Titcomb even worse - 3.54/1.29 to 5.37/1.73. Elsewhere, Pete Conway and Charlie Buffinton appeared to be set for rotation slots this season but each struggled, especially Conway who ended up with an ERA north of 5.00.

Just about every one else struggled too. Tim Keefe, Scott Stratton, Henry Boyle, Silver King, and Charlie Sweeney still are draftable, but experience 15-35% increases to their ERA's.

There were few bright spots. Bert Dorr and Kid Nichols had reputable ERA's around 4.25 but the big news is Ben Sanders and Joe Neale. Both we already considered upper tier pitchers, and both improved especially Neale. Neal's WHIP went from 1.15 to 0.94.

Overall, these changes are an obvious positive. First and foremost, we strive for accuracy. The more accurate the data, the better the league. Secondly, intuitively we all knew the 1800s players were better than we expected. We lived with it because it was fun to have new greats to draft in the first few rounds, but nobody really believed Lady Baldwin was that good. Turns out he's not, and that's ok.

Here's a file with the differences outlined by player.

League Era Correction

2012-01-21T07:21:00.001-05:00

While I was spending time correcting the park factors for the 1800s players, I thought I might as well spend time correcting the 'eras' too. In DMB speak, an era is the league totals for that specfic year. Errors in the era (ha) will impact how much better or worse than average the computer thinks a player is.

There was on error, but looking at the player impacted I don't think it will make much of a difference.

1885 AA - 14 league HR's coded instead of 149. These players will likely have a reduction in HR
Dave Orr
Pete Browning
Henry Larkin

New Ball Park Factor Calculation Methodology

2012-01-20T23:40:00.000-05:00

I do need to get out more.

Well, scratch the resolution idea from the previous post, I found a much better way to create frictional ball parks. Earlier this evening I had wanted to find real life parks that seemed to result in a Baseball-Reference-esque type number.

It was a futile exercise. There were wild swings in DMB park data - a 120 / 100 / 75 / 49 park might add up to Neutral. I didn't want to use something like this for all 1800s batters and pitchers in a neutral park.

Instead, I believe I have devised a method to auto calculate any generic park factor I wish:

The Historical league average player hits .257 / .331 / .375
In 550 AB lets estimate he hit 20 doubles, 3 triples, and 12 home runs
Reverse engineering we get 133 Runs Created
We know RC is a fairly good estimator of teams runs scored
We know the BR park factor equates to the percentage of runs scored above or below average. Ex: 104 = 4% more runs scored.
Therefore, we can surmise that the average batter would increase their runs created by 4% as well.
Knowing all the above, we can back into a 4% Runs Created increase by monkeying with a batters singles, doubles, triples, and home runs.
The percentages we change those stats, are the percentages we change the DMB park factors.
Whoila! Below is the chart I will use

If for some reason you are still reading this post, the left hand column is the BR Park Factor. The next four are the park factors I will use for DMB purposes. And the rest are the stat lines of the average player in each of those parks.

The best part (or worst) my original way of doing it was probably close enough anyway. Testing out a 110 BR BPF the old way (110 across the board) yields 10% more Runs Created. Mother of all that is good and holy.

Solving the 1800s Dillema

2012-01-20T21:11:00.001-05:00

Earlier today I sent an email to league owners announcing the ability to request a reset on certain players. The reset covered every era, but in reality, most issues we have encountered were from the relatively new 1800s player sets.

I was digging into the issue (again) and discovered what likely is a critical flaw for certain players. The ballpark. For players from 1901 through today, DMB provides a ball park database that is used when entering new players into the game. Prior to 1901 users are left to fend for themselves so I turned to baseball-reference.com and used their ball park data.

As most know, DMB provides ball park data splits for singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns for both lefties and righties. Baseball-Reference provides one consolidated number. In a moment of apparent stupidity, I simply used the b-r.com number without attempting to convert to DMB language.

For example, 1888 West Side park has a baseball-reference.com ballpark factor of 107. While entering this into DMB, I used 107 for the singles, doubles, triples, and homer run rate. Had I thought for more than a second, I would have realized if one increases singles, doubles, triples, and home runs across the board by 7%, overall scoring would increase a heck of a lot more than 7% - the number that b-r.com's factor implies.

My sincere apologies to everyone! Those with weak stomachs may not want to read on. Here are some players I think will suffer

PITCHERS
104 - Ben Sanders
102 - Pete Conway

BATTERS
97 - Ed Delahanty
84 - Dave Orr

And Players I think will improve

PITCHERS
96 - Cannonball Titcomb

BATTERS
114 - King Kelly
113 - Hugh Duffy
111 - Tip O'Neill

In the coming days I am going to reset every 1800s player using valid looking park factors. I propose to use examples of what the park could have look like by utilizing real life dmb park factors from the early 1900s that match with the B-R.com values.

For instance, if B-R.com has 104 and I find a real life dmb park of 105 / 95 / 100 / 102 that also has a B-R.com factor of 104 I'll use the DMB values.

All of this will be published as well. The good news is that most players already played in parks that were close to neutral and their impact would be minimal.

Again, sorry for the inconvenience! Look for more on this soon.

Gossamers Trade Down

2012-01-17T17:43:00.001-05:00

Our first trade of the season, and it's an interesting one. The Gold Country Gossamers trade the 16th draft position to Michael G for the 21st draft position.

It's in interesting move. Sources close to Justin B of the Gossamers, speculate that time considerations as well the benefit of picking virtually back to back were at play.

For Michael - his first week on the job and looks like a genius. Had this been last year, he would have traded up for the likes of Ty Cobb (Rd 1), Randy Johnson (Rd 2), Frank Robinson (Rd 3), Lefty Grove (Rd 7), and Huston Street (Rd 16)

Welcome New Owners!

2012-01-17T17:33:00.003-05:00

This is a bit late in coming, but wanted to officially welcome our newest owners - Brad H, Chris P, Michael G, and Jason S.

Brad found us on the internet while the other three found us thanks to Shotgun.

Welcome Gents!

Overview of Resources Available to Owners

2012-01-17T14:59:00.002-05:00

By my count, we have 8 owners that have been in the league for a year or less. The rest of us have lived through the evolution of the blog and website, growing accustomed to some of its quirks and hidden secrets.

I wanted to provide a rundown of all possible aids to the draft. No one I know uses all of these tools, but everyone should at least be aware of them and can pick and choose at their own discretion.

If you interested in seasons past, everything you wanted to know about previous seasons of ATB can be found at the History main page. There is some real fluff there, such as the leaderboards and the Hall of Fame, but two sections can quickly allow you to become an expert.

The Compiled Raw Data of Each ATB Season is a zipped file that houses each season's pitching and batting registers in recorded history. Every final batting and pitching line has been dumped into excel for your enjoyment.

Secondly, this History page also houses the 100 Re-sim Compilation. The 100 re-sims were an off-season study, performed between ATB XII and ATB III, that attempted to baseline the results of the common players selected in drafts up to that time. Simply, I created a dummy league with a few hundred players and compiled the results. Each "team" played in fictitious park and the schedule was 100% balanced. On this 100 Re-sim page you can find the Min, Max, and Average stat line for each player in the study, a quick summary of everything for the impatient, and the full raw detail of each of the 100 seasons for each player for the nerds. These are particularly invaluable as it can point out some of the follies and gems that are otherwise unpredictable.

There is also a section of useful tools under the Draft Day main page. Some of the more useful:

default player ratings information
eligible player sets
Real life era's (Average real life Batting and Pitching Stats by year)
Ballpark data

We have a Rules main page, that also links to DMB help files should you need to know something specific about the software.

Finally, over the years I've penned a few Analysis articles on the blog that might interest you. Some of the more popular articles outlined the impact of draft order, an analysis of how critical defense is, and a small book on how the draft seems to shape up year in and year out.

Oh, one more thing to note. Nothing is certain. Not in MLB and certainly not in DMB. Between 1921 and 1926 Babe Ruth batted: .378, .315, .393, .378, .290, and .372. That is a wild ride and the same thing can happen in ATB.

Sticking with Ruth, in the 100 re-sims he was an animal, easily rating the best batter in the game with an average line of .282 / .481 / .630. Just as in real life, he won't repeat that line every single year and in one of the sims he batted .333 / .506 / .723 (!) and another just .221 / .419 / .528.

Good luck!

Team Schedules Posted

2012-01-16T21:58:00.002-05:00

Teams schedules have been posted and can be found under the normal league reports links. There are 18 games against teams in your own division, and 12 games against teams in the other. There are no inter-league games and we play 162 between April 5 and October 2 (Sim time, not real life).

We're keeping 8 playoff teams in total, 4 from each league. There will be two division winners obviously, and the 2 Wild Card teams from each league. The Wild Card is specific to a division, meaning two teams from each division makes the playoffs. This is because of the unbalanced schedule.

Looking around the league, something quite remarkable has taken place, entirely without planning for it in advance. Every season ending series is an intra-division rivalry. With 4 of the 6 teams in each division heading home, it promises to be a nerve racking last week to the season.

New Draft Board Posted

2012-01-16T21:30:00.001-05:00

With the addition of the new owners it was necessary to recreate the draft board. I had to delete the old version, and re-upload a new one. This unfortunately means that the file needs to be re-shared with everyone. I believe I was able to do this, but if you did not get an email stating the file has been shared again, please let me know.

Also, this year I've made a minor improvements in that your personal tabs now show your daily pick times.

Finally, the years listed for each player has been updated for the 2011 season (where applicable) too.

Happy Drafting! Feb 6th remains the start date.

Adding 4 Teams

2012-01-16T09:24:00.001-05:00

Recently, a flurry of new owners have surfaced. I originally turned away the first three as the in season schedule wouldn't work with 21-23 teams. However, when the fourth request for a team came in, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to expand ATB to a mega, 24-human controlled team league.

I wish there were a perfect way to do this, but in the end the addition of four new teams outweighs any negative repercussions from monkeying with the draft order and divisional alignment that were previously announced.

The four new teams will be inserted into the draft slots 21-24. As for the divisions, we'll keep the American vs National alignment as is, adding two teams to each. However, each of these leagues will need to be split into East vs West.

Here's how it works out (all via Random Number Generator)

AL - East
Justin B
Lou P
Justin P
Steve C
Joe V (New This Year)
Jason S (New This Year)

AL - West
Sean S
Matt B
Ivar A
Fred B (New This Year)
Dave K (New This Year)
New Guy (New This Year)

NL - East
TJ O
Mike S
Brad P
Jeff B
Michael G (New This Year)
Brad H (New This Year)

NL - West
Jason B
Brian B
Joe T
Jay H
Alan C
Shotgun S

For the 21-24 slots in draft:
21 - Michael G
22 - Jason H
23 - Don't Know Name
24 - Brad H

The New ATB Value Metric

2012-01-15T08:06:00.000-05:00

A few years ago, ATB Value was introduced as a recurring stat aimed at pegging the overall value each batter brings to the league. It's base was a modified OPS which was then put on the scale of batting average and adjusted for defense and park factor, and finally position.

There were two issues with this metric. First, it ignored another key facet of baseball, the ability to steal and run the bases. Second, it was on the scale of batting average, a quickly dying stat that should not be given any chance at a new life.

This off-season I've revamped ATB Value, hopefully mitigating these issues and giving us a true stat to measure batter value. Here's how it works:

Instead of modified OPS, which was really a stat called GPA currently published by The Hardball Times, I turned to wOBA (Weighted on Base Average). While not as mathematical as stats such as WAR or VORP or Win Shares, it's the foundation for many sabermetrically-minded stats often used today, including WAR. It's formula as it originally appeared in "The Book"

With this foundation established, each players raw wOBA is further adjusted for:

Park Factor
Defensive Range and Error Rate, using the defense analysis previously discussed
Stolen Base success, using linear weights which values each SB as earning .22 Runs, and each CS losing .45 Runs
each batters "Running" factor given by DMB (Pr, Fr, Av, Vg, Ex)
And finally positional scarcity. This is critical as it allows for comparison across positions

Last season, the Top 5 in ATB Value were:

.411 - Mickey Mantle

.387 - Ross Barnes

.367 - Rogers Hornsby

.365 - Fred Dunalp

.361 - Arky Vaughan

.360 - Larry Walker

.357 - Barry Bonds

.352 - Hughie Jennings

.351 - Babe Ruth

.345 - Ted Williams

It's fairly safe to say Mantle was the best player in the game last year, batting .351 / .451 / .528 playing center field with great defense. However, normally we'd expect someone like Babe Ruth at #2 and not a second basemen who failed to hit anything out of the park. Comparing those two in detail:

RB - .361 / .428 / .490, 38 2b, 21 3b, 0 hr

BR - .255 / .416 / .569, 29 2b, 3 3b, 50 hr

Each had relatively similar on base-percentages, but Barnes worked harder to attain his. His OBP was so high because he had so many hits. Ruth on the other hand, walked his way to first, which while still great, provides less value than a single which can advance runners multiple bases. Further, Ruth also led the league in Intentional Walks for which he doesn't get full credit.
Ruth obviously has a lot more power and his 82 extra base hits easily outpace the 59 posted by Barnes
Ruth ultimately wins the raw wOBA .407 to .395

The raw wOBA is then adjusted for other value each player provides:

Barnes was successful on 41 of 56 stolen base attempts; Ruth on just 2 of 8.
Barnes has Ex/124 defense; Ruth just Av/168
Barnes has a Vg running rating; Ruth just Av
Both played the majority of their games in a batters park, but Barnes was aided a bit more (104 BPF vs 101)

After these adjustments, Barnes ends up with more overall value - .405 to .389.

Still, we haven't taken into account positional scarcity. Ruth roamed right field last season, where the position averaged a .330 ATB value score, the second highest in the game after first base. His peers included:

.310 / .362 / .510, Ex/33 Defense - Larry Walker

.283 / .331 / .569, Vg.52 Defense - Frank Robinson

.344 / .384 / .531, 30 triples - -- George Hall

.319 / .356 / .429, Ex/91 defense - Joe Jackson

.316 / .365 / .447, 50 EBH - - - -- Harry Lumley (!)

Plus a host of others that were good options. At second, the overall ATB Value score was just .314 and players like Joe Morgan (.609 OPS) and Buddy Myer (.627 OPS) played full time. Still others like Ryne Sandberg (.249 OBP) were in steady platoons.

Because of this, Ruth takes a major hit, reducing his ATV Value to .351 while Barnes takes less of a hit, reducing to .387.

Last season we saw the following average positional ATB Value scores:

.337 - 1b

.330 - rf

.330 - lf

.324 - cf

.323 - dh

.321 - league average

.321 - 3b

.314 - 2b

.306 - ss

.301 - c

During the season the ATB Value stat will be published weekly.

Sneak Peak - ATB Hall of Fame

2012-01-14T23:07:00.000-05:00

I'm working on an ATB Hall of Fame based upon a revamped ATB Value score. The score is meant to be in scale with on-base average.

Here are the top two seasons - what an incredible two years for Bonds.

In ATB VI he had the best raw stats we've ever seen in ATB batting .331 / .472 / .751 with 65 HR's. It works out to be an all time record high "Raw wOBA" (unadjusted) of .487.

Four years later in ATB X he batted .330 / .490 / .615 in an extreme pitchers park (92 BPF). He hit 47 homers and swiped 24 of 27 bases. His pure ATB Value Runs score is the best all time at 184.2.*

*ATB Value is the rate stat; ATB Value Runs is the rate stat converted to a run based stat, taking into consideration plate appearances and the overall league average ATB Value.

Is there now more reason to doubt Ruth as the #1 overall pick (100-resims be damned)? Here are the all time career leaders in ATB Value Runs:

979.0 - Bonds,Barry (lf)

929.9 - Ruth,Babe (lf)

888.2 - Williams,Ted (lf)

851.2 - Mantle,Mickey (cf)

815.3 - Wagner,Honus (ss)

803.5 - Gehrig,Lou (1b)

786.5 - Vaughan,Arky (ss)

753.2 - Hornsby,Rogers (2b)

746.8 - Lajoie,Nap (2b)

705.2 - Speaker,Tris (cf)

695.7 - Brett,George (3b)

694.8 - Musial,Stan (rf)

687.2 - Cash,Norm (1b)

679.7 - Foxx,Jimmie (1b)

663.2 - Bagwell,Jeff (1b)

More soon on ATB Value. All the above is preliminary, but I do like the results so far as it mixes in middle infielders quite nicely when thinking in terms of positional scarcity.

Eligible Batter File Posted

2012-01-14T20:41:00.005-05:00

Well, that was relatively easy. Thought it would take several hours to compile. Anyway, eligible batters here and on the website.

As always, this is my best view of eligible players. There are 16,106 batterr seasons on this file, it is possible if not likely that I missed one. The eligibility rules override this file if there is ever any doubt about a specific player/season.

Eligible Pitcher File Updated

2012-01-14T19:56:00.001-05:00

The Lahman database is still not yet complete. I turned to alternate source to give everyone time to peruse the 2011 statistics prior to draft day. If Lahman updates prior the to the season, I will use it as the definitive source.

However,there would be no statistical alterations by switching to Laman. Rather, the differences would be in the player names. Different sources have varying ways to handle names - De La Rosa vs DeLaRosa vs De_La-Rosa types of issues. Or is it Dan or Danny Haren.

Eligible Pitchers here and posted in all the usual spots on the website. Batters to follow as soon as I get through them.

As always, this is my best view of eligible players. There are 22,656 pitcher seasons on this file, it is possible if not likely that I missed one. The eligibility rules override this file if there is ever any doubt about a specific player/season.

Fishbiscuits Return

2012-01-14T19:21:00.002-05:00

Earlier today Brian B announced his franchise will remain in Otherton, retaining the Fishbiscuits name and logo.

Otherton Fishbiscuits

Gold Country Returns

2012-01-14T06:15:00.001-05:00

Justin B has announced the Gold Country Gossamers are returning for a sophomore campaign. The Franchise has a new look:

Gold Country Gossamers

Is Babe Ruth The Best Choice at #1?

2012-01-12T21:33:00.001-05:00

Well, yes, but this is interesting nonetheless. Ruth has never won a World Series, at least going back as far as we have records. In fact, only 25% of the time has a slugger been the first pick of a World Series champion.

ATB VI --- Greg Maddux (North Dakota No Scorers)
ATB VII -- Rogers Hornsby (Pittsburgh Pulverizers)
ATB VIII - Pedro Martinez (Lake Hopatcong Marauders)
ATB IX --- Arky Vaughan (Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs)
ATB X ---- Barry Bonds (DC Chips)
ATB XI---- Nap Lajoie (Bellevue Freakin Franchise)
ATB XII -- Barry Bonds (Sonoran Black Diamonds)
ATB XIII - DC Chips (Ty Cobb)

I am currently in the process of revamping my ATB Value metric. And while premature to call it ready for prime time, the results do show that an all around great player such as Mickey Mantle may be more valuable than the Ruth's and Bonds of the world. More valuable in terms of winning an ATB league anyway. Look for a writeup on the topic soon.

First Two Owners Announce Franchises

2012-01-12T18:45:00.002-05:00

Earlier this afternoon, Dave K announced that his franchise will hail from Brighton and be named the Shadows. A few hours later, Lou P staked a claim to Bertrand Island, with his squad named the Carnies. Here are their respective logos.

Brighton Shadows

Bertrand Island Carnies

Off Topic - Pedro on Game 7 in 2003 ALCS

2012-01-11T06:21:00.000-05:00

Nothing we all didn't already know - "Why didn't Grady take him out"! - but interesting to see Pedro's take on the matter anyway. All is forgiven when it works, but don't blame the player when it doesn't...

I thought I was out in the seventh inning, because I was told by [pitching coach] Dave Wallace that was my last inning. Also, the head trainer that we had, Chris Correnti, told me you might be looking at your last batter or so. When I came out, I was pretty sure I was out. Then, Grady asked me to get Nick Johnson out, because [left-handed reliever Alan] Embree could not get him out whatsoever. [Little] said, ‘After that, I’ve got the bullpen ready for you.’

So I went in and I did that. But you know what? I did that so many times. I was out to get one batter and I would get one inning. As a matter of fact, that ’99 game when I came out hurt in Cleveland, I was supposed to pitch one inning just to hold them there, and I ended up pitching six complete innings. Nobody asked about it, because it looked good when we finally won it. But I went over my head, I went over everybody’s head. I went over Jimy Williams’ head. I went over the rules they had for me that night. I just took it upon me to do it, and I did it. I disobeyed what Jimy wanted to do. Jimy wanted to take me out. I said no. He didn’t want me to pitch at that time that I went in, and I said, ‘No, I want to go in.’ When it goes good, everything tends to be overlooked. When it goes wrong, it comes back to bite you.

Grady’s decision, if you ask me today the same thing, can you get Nick Johnson out? I would say yes. Can you get [Jorge] Posada? Yes. Can you get [Hideki] Matsui? Yes. Can you get anybody – can you get any of those players? I would say yes, and I would take the ball again because I never back off a challenge.

Don’t ask me. If you want to take me out, just don’t ask me. Take me out right then.

Original Story

Welcome Joe V!

2012-01-10T19:07:00.000-05:00

Everyone - Joe V. Joe V - everyone. Joe joins us via a connection with Mr Lima himself, Brad P. Joe will be taking over the PC2 franchise which means we're all full!

The website is just about updated. One major remaining piece is adding the 2011 batters and pitchers to the eligible players files. My source, the lahman database, has not bee completed yet. It is typically finished by now so I am hoping any day it will be posted. If not, there are alternate sources to use, but not as easy to manipulate.

I am giving them 1 more week before going somewhere else.

Welcome Fred B!

2012-01-10T14:12:00.000-05:00

Everyone, please welcome Fred B who will be taking over the placeholder team PC1. Fred is a contributor to our friends at Razzball and promised to set a new world record for the number of transactions requested :)

Draft Board Posted

2012-01-10T12:06:00.000-05:00

The draft board has been posted. If you want to know your times by day you can check here.

ATB XIII Pitching Records

2012-01-09T18:10:00.000-05:00

Earlier this year I posted the batting records established this past season. Below are the pitching records:

New Single Season Records

W - 23 - Greg Maddux
ERA - 1.92 - Greg Maddux
QS - 28 - Pedro Martinez
G - 110 - Joe Neale
Reliever WHIP - 0.80 - Joe Nathan

New "Best Seasons"

Greg Maddux - Best Starting Season All Time
Joe Nathan - Best Reliever (non-closer)

The all time batting and pitching leader boards have been updated, as well as the season capsule for ATB XIII. All can be found under the History links on the page..

Welcome David K!

2012-01-09T12:20:00.002-05:00

Hi Everyone

Wanted to introduce David K to ATB.

David comes to us via Justin B (Gold Country) and has had much experience with Diamond Mind baseball and leagues similar to ours.

Welcome David!

ATB XIV Details - Draft Order, Divisional Alignment, and More

2012-01-09T09:14:00.001-05:00

A few items to go over

1. Draft is now officially set to kick off on Monday, February 6.

2. For game scheduling reasons, we must have 20 teams in the league. Right now we're stuck at 17 total confirmed owners which means we'll likely have some PC led teams this year. This is a good news/bad news situation.

On one hand, 20 teams dilutes the player pool a bit and make the draft more challenging.
On the other, in previous seasons the PC team has never made the playoffs and their presence does not add a challenge to the regular season.

3. With the 20 teams confirmed, I am able to set the Draft Order and Divisional Alignment (Career Wpct listed first and draft position in parenthesis):

American League

.630 - Justin B (16)

.599 - Steve C (1)

.589 - Justin P (11)

.589 - Lou P (13)

.537 - Sean S (18)

.491 - Matt B (20)

.460 - Ivar A (15)
New - Dave K (3)

New - Fred B (17)

New - Joe V (19)

National League
.586 - Mike S (2)
.576 - Jason B (4)
.549 - Joe T (14)
.526 - Brad P (8)
.501 - Jeff B (10)
.485 - TJ O (5)
.479 - Shotgun S (9)
.441 - Jay H (6)
.427 - Brian B (12)
.362 - Alan C (7)

Draft Order
1) Steve C
2) Mike S
3) Dave K
4) Jason B
5) TJ O
6) Jay H
7) Alan C
8) Brad P
9) Shotgun S
10) Jeff B
11) Justin P
12) Brian B
13) Lou P
14) Joe T
15) Ivar A
16) Justin B
17) Fred B
18) Sean S
19) Joe V
20) Matt B

Regular Season and Playoffs

162 Game Season
No Interleague Play
Top 4 Teams in each league make the playoffs, with home field advantage being determined by 1) Overall Record, 2) Head to Head Record, 3) Pythagorean Winning Percentage
Three rounds of playoffs, all series 7 games.

Going with Standard ATB

2012-01-07T08:13:00.000-05:00

Dissension in the ranks! Well, not really, but there is definitely a dividing between the 10 year veterans and the 3-5 year veterans when discussing the new proposal to eliminate seasons.

As a result, for the current ATB XIV we will not be eliminating any seasons. Last year we opened up hundreds of new players with the new playing time rules, so the pool is still fresh enough.

I do believe shaking things up is good idea, and we'll work towards it for ATB XV - maybe along with an Auction style draft as well. Or perhaps a hybrid, I'll think on it.

We're up to 17 owners, 1 short of last season. If you know of anyone, send them my details - thanks!

Current Owner List for ATB XIV

2012-01-05T06:10:00.000-05:00

If you are not listed below and want in, please let me know - up to 15 confirmed:

Allen C
Brad P
Brian B
Jason B
Jay H
Jeff B
Joe T
Justin B
Justin P
Ivar A
Lou P
Matt B (w/ Paresh G)
Mike S
Sean S
Shotgun S
Steve C
TJ O

Previous Owners who I have not heard from yet
Jay S
Kevin C
Leanne
Paul T

One Last New Idea - Eliminating Random Player Seasons

2012-01-04T20:40:00.002-05:00

Note: Input requested at the end!

I mentioned earlier I am searching for new owners. The reason for this is to shake up the player pool a bit, the more owners the deeper into the player pool we have to search.

Absent an influx of new owners there are others ways to accomplish the goal. The most common in the world of DMB leagues is a progressive league. Meaning, a player is drafted and season after season his real life year is to be used. (Ruth '20 drafted in ATB V, then Ruth '21 be used in ATB VI). I love this idea, but frankly it is an incredibly arduous task and until DMB allows importing of player data it is off the table for ATB.

Other ideas such as Keeper Leagues or Contract Leagues can work, but that seems to stray to far from what the heart of ATB has always been - a fresh start each and every year and a good old fashion snake draft.

To make sure interest remains high and a fresh crop of talent is always being used, I would like to randomly eliminate some of the Top Seasons from the player pool. This is not to say eliminate a player entirely, rather remove a single season for certain players

To do this I plan to removed 20% of the top 15 at each position from the draft. To be clear, if 1920 Babe Ruth gets this treatment, then his 1921 season along with every other is available.

Purely as an example, I have done this based upon last years draft, and the following player seasons would be ineligible:

Catcher

Pick 76 - 1933 Mickey Cochrane
Pick 200 - 2009 Joe Mauer
Pick 230 - 1947 Walker Cooper

First Base

Pick 36 - 1969 Willie McCovey
Pick 50 - 1920 George Sisler
Pick 90 - 1977 Rod Carew

Second Base

Pick 27 - 1884 Fred Dunlap
Pick 39 - 1976 Joe Morgan
Pick 155 - 1990 Ryne Sandberg

Third Base

Pick 72 - 1966 Dick Allen
Pick 95 - 2004 Adrian Beltre
Pick 210 - 1894 Lave Cross

Shortstop

Pick 151 - 1936 Luke Appling
Pick 152 - 1884 Candy Nelson
Pick 198 - 1896 Bill Dahlen

Left Field

Pick 12 - 1887 Tip O'Neill
Pick 118 - 1928 Goose Goslin
Pick 123 - 2001 Luis Gonzalez

Center Field
Pick 26 - 1941 Joe DiMaggio
Pick 73 - 1885 Pete Browning
Pick 80 - 1915 Benny Kauff

Right Field

Pick 52 - 1990 Rickey Henderson
Pick 92 - 1914 Steve Evans
Pick 146 - 1927 Paul Waner

Designated Hitter

Pick 97 - 1969 Reggie Jackson
Pick 247 - 1995 Edgar Martinez
Pick 296 - 2006 Travis Hafner

Starting Pitcher

Pick 13 - 1995 Greg Maddux
Pick 30 - 1914 Dutch Leonard
Pick 65 - 1888 Ben Sanders

Relief Pitcher

Pick 167 - 2003 Eric Gagne
Pick 173 - 1999 Jeff Zimmerman
Pick 172 - 2003 John Smoltz

What say you? Good idea? Bad idea? Suggested changes?

The Impact Of Draft Order

2011-12-22T15:53:00.004-05:00

The Random Number Generator (of Death, mwahahaha!) can be an owner’s best friend or worst nightmare come draft day. With a Top-2 pick you’re guaranteed a superstar in the form of Babe Ruth or Pedro Martinez, and with a 3-4 pick you have an elite list of players to pick from, be it Lady Baldwin for your staff or someone like Mickey Mantle to anchor a lineup and defense simultaneously.

But where is the trade off? Is it better to have an 8th pick and land a player like Rogers Hornsby, but then have to wait 22 rounds for a Dan Brouthers or Randy Johnson; or pick last and pick up a Ty Cobb and John McGraw back to back at the turn?

I ran some numbers on the past 5 drafts – the only in which we haven’t used any PC teams – and the results while not necessarily groundbreaking, can lead is to some potentially vital conclusions.

In general terms it makes little difference if you pick in the first or second half of the draft. Owners picking earlier in the first half have a cumulative .505 winning percentage and those picking in the latter have average a .495 winning percentage. Over 162 games, that works out to be a 2.4 game difference, appreciable for certain, but in the grand scheme of things the difference between an 88 and 90 win team is very small.

Note: I hit a bit of a snag in how best to compile the data. We have 16 round draft days as well as 24 round drafts, and the difference in 8 rounds is crucial. To mitigate these differences I decided to normalize the rounds by separating each draft into buckets of 10% increments, and comparing the results by each increment.

Digging deeper into the results, a dangerous trend emerges. Obviously with a Top 4 pick team success is all but assured, but as you approach the 7/8 picks, team success drops off the table before rising and eventually leveling off. This implies one should wish for a Top 4 pick, perhaps Top 5, but then anything else in the Top-10 is a hindrance and not a benefit.

We’ll come back to this point in a moment but first need to spend some time dissecting that 11-12 selection. With a .549 winning percentage sandwiched between a .479 and .484, this slot sticks out like a sore thumb. On one hand, the small sample size of just five drafts in the study needs to be considered since one or two abnormal teams can really skew the results. Similarly, it’s important to note that five historically great owners (Jason B, Justin P, Lou P, Mike S, Steve C) have just happened to have picked in this slot. Is the cumulative .549 winning percentage a result of the slot or of the general ability of the owners?

On first glance I assumed it was the owner base, but even if you take out the five, the balance of the teams have averaged a .528 winning percentage, considerably better than all but two other slots.

We can draw a simple conclusion: This spot is the best place to capitalize on another’s mistake:

Last year Tip O’Neill and Greg Maddux were nabbed here? Why? Two other owners stumbled early and took Jimmy Foxx and Hugh Duffy ahead of them.
In ATB XII again it was Tip O’Neill this time by Steve C, only available because Jimmy Foxx was again selected too early. The Chips ended with a .617 Wpct.
ATB XI was infamous, as Ted Williams was passed on for Hugh Duffy, Roger Connor, Randy Johnson, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, and Fred Dunlap among others. Justin happily grabbed him and won 96 games.
In ATB X Jason B selected Honus Wagner, only available because someone else thought Addie Joss was a Top 10 pick. Jason’s Fanclub won 95 games.
Finally, in ATB IX yours truly ended up with Ted Williams by way of a too early Mark McGwire pick, my Red Eagles won 104 games.

Year in and year out owners make mistakes early in the draft. If you happen to land a draft pick immediately after these one or two gaffes, you can easily end up with Top 5 value while not having to wait so long for the Round 2 pick to come back.

Getting back to the original point of poor winning percentages immediately after pick 5. I believe this is occurring not because the talent after pick 5 is so bad; rather, the talent is not so obvious. Everyone knows what do with the Top 5 picks in the draft but once the superstars are off the board, owners are forced to think and mistakes can happen.

I am generalizing here, but my conclusions:

A Top 4 or 5 pick is still the best place to draft, especially Top 2
The rest of the draft is relatively equal – if you make a good pick
However, the easiest place to make a mistake in the 1st round between choices 5-10, and making one here can kill a team.
Conversely, the best place to capitalize on an owner's mistake are the handful of selections immediately after.

Pitchers with Clutch Bonus

2011-12-12T12:53:00.002-05:00

If you recall, Hall of Famer's now get a 'clutch' boost. Below is a list of current ATB pitchers who now receive the bonus. If time permits, I will run a study to see how much effect this has on a player.

This is the last hope for 3-Finger.

Alexander,Pete-1915
Bender,Chief-1910
Brown,Mordecai-1906
Brown,Mordecai-1908
Brown,Mordecai-1909
Bunning,Jim-1966
Carlton,Steve-1972
Carlton,Steve-1980
Chesbro,Jack-1902
Chesbro,Jack-1904
Clarkson,John-1885
Coveleski,Stan-1917
Coveleski,Stan-1920
Dean,Dizzy-1933
Dean,Dizzy-1934
Dean,Dizzy-1938
Drysdale,Don-1957
Drysdale,Don-1960
Drysdale,Don-1964
Eckersley,Dennis-1990
Faber,Red-1921
Feller,Bob-1940
Feller,Bob-1946
Fingers,Rollie-1981
Ford,Whitey-1958
Ford,Whitey-1961
Ford,Whitey-1964
Galvin,Pud-1875
Galvin,Pud-1884
Gibson,Bob-1968
Gomez,Lefty-1931
Gomez,Lefty-1934
Gomez,Lefty-1937
Gossage,Rich-1977
Gossage,Rich-1980
Gossage,Rich-1981
Gossage,Rich-1982
Griffith,Clark-1898
Griffith,Clark-1901
Grove,Lefty-1930
Grove,Lefty-1931
Hubbell,Carl-1933
Hubbell,Carl-1936
Hunter,Catfish-1972
Hunter,Catfish-1974
Hunter,Catfish-1975
Jenkins,Fergie-1970
Jenkins,Fergie-1971
Johnson,Walter-1912
Johnson,Walter-1913
Joss,Addie-1904
Joss,Addie-1908
Keefe,Tim-1883
Keefe,Tim-1888
Koufax,Sandy-1963
Koufax,Sandy-1965
Koufax,Sandy-1966
Lemon,Bob-1954
Lyons,Ted-1939
Marichal,Juan-1965
Marichal,Juan-1966
Marquard,Rube-1916
Mathewson,Christy-1905
Mathewson,Christy-1908
Mathewson,Christy-1909
McGinnity,Joe-1904
Newhouser,Hal-1945
Newhouser,Hal-1946
Nichols,Kid-1898
Niekro,Phil-1967
Niekro,Phil-1974
Palmer,Jim-1972
Palmer,Jim-1975
Perry,Gaylord-1972
Perry,Gaylord-1974
Plank,Eddie-1915
Radbourn,Charley-1883
Radbourn,Charley-1884
Rixey,Eppa-1915
Rixey,Eppa-1924
Roberts,Robin-1952
Roberts,Robin-1953
Roberts,Robin-1954
Rusie,Amos-1894
Rusie,Amos-1897
Ryan,Nolan-1981
Ryan,Nolan-1987
Ryan,Nolan-1991
Seaver,Tom-1969
Seaver,Tom-1970
Seaver,Tom-1971
Spahn,Warren-1953
Sutter,Bruce-1977
Sutton,Don-1972
Vance,Dazzy-1924
Vance,Dazzy-1925
Vance,Dazzy-1930
Waddell,Rube-1900
Waddell,Rube-1902
Waddell,Rube-1904
Waddell,Rube-1905
Walsh,Ed-1908
Walsh,Ed-1909
Walsh,Ed-1910
Welch,Mickey-1885
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1959
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1965
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1967
Willis,Vic-1899
Wynn,Early-1950
Young,Cy-1892
Young,Cy-1895
Young,Cy-1901
Young,Cy-1903
Young,Cy-1905
Young,Cy-1908

Iron Man: Changes to Current Pitchers

2011-12-08T06:29:00.001-05:00

Meant to include this in the previous post. Here are the current pitchers in the DMB Database that will become Iron Men, some big names on this list:

Alexander,Pete-1915
Antonelli,Johnny-1954
Avery,Steve-1993
Barrett,Red-1945
Blue,Vida-1971
Blue,Vida-1975
Blyleven,Bert-1973
Bradley,George-1876
Bunning,Jim-1966
Carlton,Steve-1972
Carlton,Steve-1980
Chesbro,Jack-1904
Clarkson,John-1885
Clemens,Roger-1997
Coombs,Jack-1910
Cooper,Mort-1942
Cooper,Wilbur-1920
Corcoran,Larry-1880
Coveleski,Stan-1917
Coveleski,Stan-1920
Cuellar,Mike-1969
Daily,Hugh-1884
Davenport,Dave-1915
Dean,Dizzy-1933
Devlin,Jim-1876
Donohue,Pete-1925
Drysdale,Don-1964
Drysdale,Don-1960
Faber,Red-1921
Falkenberg,Cy-1914
Feller,Bob-1940
Feller,Bob-1946
Fernandez,Alex-1996
Ford,Whitey-1961
Galvin,Pud-1884
Gomez,Lefty-1937
Gooden,Dwight-1985
Griffith,Clark-1898
Gubicza,Mark-1988
Halladay,Roy-2002
Halladay,Roy-2003
Hecker,Guy-1884
Hendrix,Claude-1914
Hentgen,Pat-1996
Hentgen,Pat-1997
Hernandez,Felix-2009
Hernandez,Felix-2010
Hubbell,Carl-1936
Hudson,Tim-2003
Hughson,Tex-1946
Hunter,Catfish-1974
Hunter,Catfish-1975
Hutchison,Bill-1890
Jackson,Danny-1988
Jenkins,Fergie-1971
Jenkins,Fergie-1970
Johnson,Randy-2004
Johnson,Randy-1999
Johnson,Walter-1912
Johnson,Walter-1913
Kaat,Jim-1966
Keefe,Tim-1883
Key,Jimmy-1987
Kilroy,Matt-1887
King,Silver-1888
Koufax,Sandy-1963
Koufax,Sandy-1965
Koufax,Sandy-1966
Lee,Bill-1938
Loaiza,Esteban-2003
Lolich,Mickey-1971
Lonborg,Jim-1967
Luque,Dolf-1923
Mathewson,Christy-1905
Mathewson,Christy-1908
McCormick,Jim-1880
McCormick,Jim-1884
McGinnity,Joe-1904
McLain,Denny-1968
McQuillan,George-1908
Morris,Ed-1885
Morris,Jack-1986
Mungo,Van-1936
Mussina,Mike-2001
Newcombe,Don-1956
Newhouser,Hal-1946
Newhouser,Hal-1945
Newsom,Bobo-1940
Nichols,Kid-1898
Niekro,Phil-1974
Oswalt,Roy-2002
Owen,Frank-1905
Paige,Satchel-1931
Palmer,Jim-1975
Peavy,Jake-2007
Perry,Gaylord-1972
Pettitte,Andy-2007
Radbourn,Charley-1884
Radbourn,Charley-1883
Ramsey,Toad-1886
Reynolds,Shane-1996
Richard,J.R.-1979
Rijo,Jose-1993
Roberts,Robin-1952
Roberts,Robin-1954
Roberts,Robin-1953
Rogan,Bullet Joe-1916
Rogers,Steve-1982
Rusie,Amos-1897
Rusie,Amos-1894
Sabathia,C.C.-2008
Saberhagen,Bret-1989
Sain,Johnny-1946
Sain,Johnny-1948
Santana,Johan-2004
Schilling,Curt-2001
Schilling,Curt-2002
Schilling,Curt-1997
Scott,Mike-1986
Shaw,Dupee-1884
Sheets,Ben-2004
Smoltz,John-1996
Sparks,Tully-1906
Stieb,Dave-1985
Trout,Dizzy-1944
Tudor,John-1985
Vance,Dazzy-1924
Vaughn,Hippo-1919
Vazquez,Javier-2003
Viola,Frank-1987
Viola,Frank-1988
Waddell,Rube-1904
Walsh,Ed-1908
Walsh,Ed-1910
Walters,Bucky-1939
Webb,Brandon-2007
Weimer,Jake-1904
Whitney,Jim-1881
Willis,Vic-1899
Wood,Joe-1912
Wood,Wilbur-1971
Wyatt,Whit-1941
Young,Cy-1901
Zito,Barry-2002

Pitcher Iron Men Rules Update

2011-12-08T06:06:00.001-05:00

The qualification for Pitcher Iron Men has been updated. 7% was just too few to make a difference; the era's were adjusted so that about 15% of the starting pitchers are now iron men.

Rules (below) are convoluded but remember, the pitcher file in excel will just simply list if the player is an Iron Man or not. You really only need these rules if you plan on doing your own calculations.

1994-current: 34+ Starts
1988-1993: 35+ Starts
1961-1980: 38+ Starts
1924-1960: 34+ Starts
1909-1923: 36+ Starts
1897-1908: 37+ Starts
1893-1896: 50+ Starts
1874-1892: 58+ Starts
1871-1873: 55+ Starts

The above gives each one of these era's somewhere around 15% eligibility.

The Next Mickey Mantle

2011-11-21T19:16:00.001-05:00

Had to share, this was from River Ave Blues today - once called the next Mickey Mantle.... Ruben Rivera

Select Iron Men

2011-11-21T16:15:00.001-05:00

I've worked through the Iron Man setting for batters and pitchers. The results are satisfactory to me - about 10% of the batter pool and 7% of the pitcher pool ends up being Iron Men.

Key Iron Men:

First Base
1927 Lou Gehrig
1932 Jimmie Foxx
1940 Johnny Mize
2009 Albert Pujols
1938 Hank Greenberg

Second Base
1910 Nap Lajoie
1909 Eddie Collins
1951 and 1949 Jackie Robinson
1934 Charlie Gehringer
1892 Cupid Childs

Third Base
1953 Al Rosen
1969 Harmon Killebrew
1971 Joe Torre
1953 Eddie Mathews
2005 Alex Rodriguez

Shortstop
1887 Oyster Burns
1959 Ernie Banks
2001 Alex Rodriguez
1936 Arky Vaughan
1898 Hughie Jennings

Left Field
1924 Babe Ruth
1947 Ted Williams
1948 Stan Musial
1967 Carl Yastrzemski
1937 Joe Medwick

Center Field
1912 Tris Speaker
1915 Ty Cobb
1930 hack Wilson
1953 Duke Snider
1962 Willie Mays

Right Field
2001 Sammy Sosa
1912 Joe Jackson
1909 Ty Cobb
1962 Frank Robinson
1996 Gary Sheffield

Starters
2004 Randy Johnson
1965 Sandy Koufax
1901 Cy Young
1915 Pete Alexander
1908 Christy Mathewson
1971 Vida Blue
1883 Tim Keefe

Proposed Changes for Next Season

2011-11-10T06:29:00.000-05:00

It's time to starting thinking about the next ATB, tentatively set for early spring of 2012. During the off-season I'll be updating our database with various 2011 players and improving upon our fatigue settings. Additionally, I am toying around with the following changes:

1) 28 Man Rosters

To speed up the draft, especially since I want to expand # of teams
I am all for platooning, but want to make sure this isn't over used.

2) Iron Man Injury Ratings

DMB allows for an iron man injury setting, reducing the odds a player gets injured. It does not eliminate the chance of injury. Batters and Pitchers will have unique sets of parameters, and I want to keep the number of players with this rating to under 20%. First Draft:

a. Batters

i.    160 games 1961 – current
ii.    152 games 1904-1960
iii.    135 games 1893-1903
iv.    140 games 1886-1892
v.    1885 or early not eligible

b. Pitchers

i.    35+ starts 1994-current
ii.    36+ starts 1988-1993
iii.    38+ starts 1924-1980
iv.    40+ starts 1909-1923
v.    45+ starts 1897-1908
vi.    50+ starts 1893-1896
vii.    68+ starts 1874-1892
viii.    55+ starts 1871-1873

3) Clutch Ratings. All HOF'ers and Negro Leaguer's to be considered 'clutch'. Minor impact, per DMB:

If you use them, batters and pitchers with better-than-normal clutch and jam ratings will be a little better than usual in the late innings of close games. But this isn't a strong factor in the design of the game, so we recommend that you avoid placing a lot of weight on these ratings when making your decisions. It's rarely a good idea to use a weaker player over a better one just because the weaker player may have a better clutch or jam rating.

4) Finally, I am toying around with idea of reducing the number of games played per week. Right now it is about 15. Perhaps we can play 2 games per mini-sim and reduce it to 10 games per week.

Would love your thoughts on all the above. nothing is set it stone, but I am fairly convinced 1 and 2 are great ideas, 3 and 4 less so.

20 Resims Files

2011-08-22T04:25:00.000-04:00

Here are two summary files that contain resim data:

Summary of Results
Team Data by Player

Enjoy!

20 Resims Summary - #1, Gold Country Gossamers

2011-08-22T04:10:00.000-04:00

#1 – Gold Country Gossamers
Owner: Justin B
Activity Level: Moderate
Park Factor: Let’s just list it:
110/98 – Singles
94/90 – Doubles
96/100 – Triples
22/22 – Home Runs

Has the face of ATB changed forever? This, and not just naming the best team, is the most pertinent question we can ask ourselves in reviewing our 20-resims. With one of the best pitching staffs we’ve ever seen, and 180 more wins than any other team in the 20-resims, it’s clear the Gossamers were the best team in ATB this year. But what is the long term impact on draft strategy and team composition?

First, a few words the ATB XIII Gossamers. We know from the regular season Gold Country focuses on great pitching and even better defense. Perhaps just as important was there platoon strategy. With early draft picks mostly going towards pitching, Justin had to mix and match with his offense and the result was unofficial ATB record of six (!) platoons. Only Eddie Collins (.381 OBP), Pop Lloyd (.354 OPB), and Richie Ashburn (.363) were full time players. The rest of the lineup were successful, even if lacking star quality:

Catcher: Aaron Robinson (.677 OPS) and Bill Freehan (.628 OPS)
First Base: John Olerud (.378 OBP) and Frank Chance (.367 OBP)
Third Base: Stan Hack (.608 OPS – the only truly bad player) and Ezra Sutton (.355 OPS)
Left Field: Fred Clarke (.767 OPS) and Joe Kelley (.352 OBP)
Right Field: Al Kaline (.714 OPS) and And Van Slyke (.689 OPS)
DH: Bobby Murcer (.778 OPS) and Magglio Ordonez (.718 OPS)

As you’ll see below, the pitching staff was incredible. While many of the names we already associate with greatness, pitchers such as Arthur Rhodes, John Wetteland, and Jesse Tannehill are as much a product of their environment as it is of their true talent level.

Their best regulars were as follows:

Vg/48 with Vg arm - Catcher
Vg/91 – First Base
Ex/59 – Second Base
Ex/74 – Shortstop
Ex/61 – Third Base
Ex/70 – Left Field
Ex/100 – Center Field
Ex/62 – Right Field

Now back to the question at hand. Had I left this season with the paragraph above, the answer would have been no. A single great season without a World Series Championship would have convinced few the merits of a total pitching and defense strategy. However, my curiosity led me to substitute the worst team in the 100 resims with the Gossamers.

The results? In 50 resims this time, another clear and astounding victory for Justin B. In his first year in our league, he put together the single greatest team we’ve ever seen:

91 Wins – Gold Country Gossamers
87 Wins – Lusitania Death Speakers
86 Wins – Pangea T-Rex
84 Wins – DC Chips (X)
84 Wins – Manetheren Red Eagles

(Of course, the standings after the Gossamers don’t match what we saw over 100 re-sims, which does leave some open some loose ends to tackle for another day.)

Congratulations Justin B! Next season look for at least one team to fight you for the same players.

800 OPS Batters
None!

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Every dang one of em’:
Rd 1 – Pedro Martinez: 22-7, 2.49 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 273 IP, 280 K
Rd 4 – Scott Stratton: 17-11, 3.49, 1.23 WHIP, 249 IP, 228 K
Rd 5 – Jesse Tannehill: 16-11, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 244 IP, 124 K
Rd 14 – Cliff Lee: 15-13, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 237 IP, 118 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Who wasn’t?
Rd 10 – Rafael Betancourt: 8-5, 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 112 IP, 80 K, 24 Sv
Rd 12 – Bruce Sutter: 8-3, 2.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 118 IP, 121 K
Rd 15 – Steve Howe: 5-5, 2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 70 IP, 16 K, 22 Sv
Rd 17 – Arthur Rhodes: 4-1, 2.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 64 IP, 57 K
Rd 22 – John Wetteland: 2-3, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 21 IP, 18 K
Rd 23 – Mike Myers: 5-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 50 IP, 32 K

The only pitcher on the entire staff not listed in the two categories above was Brett Saberhagen. And he had a 3.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 33 IP.

And before anyone cries park factor, the only extreme rating in this park was HR factor, and idea we’ve seen at least a dozen times already

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 9 – Paul Waner. After a .592 OPS in 55 games he was dropped.

Value Draft Pick
Any one of those late round relievers will do, but Cliff Lee , whom nobody that was an especially good pick, gets the nod.

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine
#3, 93 Wins – Big Dan and the Ladys
#2, 93 Wins – Newark Slam Dumps
#1, 102 Wins – Gold Country Gossamers

20 Resims Summary - #2, Newark Slam Dumps

2011-08-19T12:40:00.003-04:00

#2 – Newark Slam Dumps
Owner: Sean S
Activity Level: Extremely High
Park Factor: About Average (Increase hits, decrease home runs)

With a 2nd ranked offense and 13 division titles in the toughest of the three division, Sean and Jay’s Newark Slam Dumps were a team to be reckoned with. Having underperformed in the regular season, many thought the Dumps were a long shot to go deep in the playoffs. However, with the league’s second best regular season run differential, there were signs that this squad was top-3 in the league. They tied for the league best Max Win Potential at 110.

Led by 1st Rounder and league MVP Mickey Mantle, their offense was of course a vital key to their success. Aside from the great trio listed below (and who would have thought Heilmann was a legit 2nd rounder) their lineup also featured a high on-base catcher (Mickey Cochrane, .378), third basemen (Wade Boggs, .382), and platoon of left fielders (Sherry Magee, .370 and Roy Thomas, .380).

Finally, we saw a recurrence of the correct Randy Johnson year (2004) and it paid off. With Bill Bernhard, Teddy Higuera, Joel Horlen, and Hank Aguirre every starter had an ERA under 4.50. While that makes for a very good rotation, the bullpen was even better. Four are listed below in the “Sub-3.25 ERA Reliever” heading and three more were close to making the cut as well.

Any other season, this team or our #3 Lady’s could easily have been ranked #1 in the league. But as mentioned yesterday, neither team was close to the level of the top team in ATB XIII (and perhaps the top team of all time?)

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Mickey Mantle: .925 OPS, .327 / .436 / .489, 22 HR, 120 R, 108 RBI
Rd 2 – Harry Heilmann: .803 OPS, .312 / .370 / .434, 33 2B
Rd 7 – Frank Robinson: .815 OPS, .277 / .347 / .467, 33 HR, 102 R, 136 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 1 – Randy Johnson: 16-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 225 IP, 187 K
Rd 4 – Bill Bernhard: 14-11, 3.98 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 227 IP, 77 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 11 – Rafael Soriano: 3-3, 2.88 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 37 IP, 38 K, 20 Sv
Rd 13 – Rob Murphy: 3-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44 IP, 20 K, 23 Sv
Rd 20 – Buddy Groom: 5-4, 3.07 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 50 IP, 23 Sv
Rd 22 – Huston Street: 5-3, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 54 IP, 40 K
Honorable mentions, just to show the depth of this pen: Jim Poole (3.30, 62 IP), Tim Keefe (3.45, 52 IP), and Darren O’Day (2.90, 3 IP  60 total in the 20 Sims)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 6 – Hank Aguirre: 4.46 ERA, 1.47 WHIP. Not that he is terrible, he just could have been had 5 rounds later. It would have been interesting to see what this team could have done, with, say, 9th Rounder Chris Carpenter (3.77 ERA, 281 IP) instead.

Value Draft Pick
Part of me wants to list Frank Robinson, who went as the 112th pick of the draft, but we will stick with Huston Street. Street stunk in the regular season, but it was a great late pick, especially considering the Lady’s wanted him too. Left out of the 100 re-sims in error, Street is a relative unknown but pitches like a top tier reliever.

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine
#3, 93 Wins – Big Dan and the Ladys
#2, 93 Wins – Newark Slam Dumps

20 Resims Summary - #3, Big Dan and The Lady's

2011-08-18T14:33:00.001-04:00

#3 – Big Dan and the Lady’s
Owner: Mike S
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Above Avg 1B, 2B, and 3B; below average HR

There is a tremendous gulf between the third ranked Lady’s and the 4th ranked Machine. The Top 3 teams are clearly superior to all other teams before them, and further, the top ranked team is another significant leap better still.

Mike S as known as a pioneer of sorts, being the first to focus almost entirely on OBP, forsaking all power. This season his squad was more balanced, finishing 3rd in OBP and 6th from the bottom in slugging. In addition to Jason Giambi and Dan Brouthers (listed below), four other regulars had OBP’s at .370 or higher. Among them, the Lady’s employed two on-base only specialists, Candy Nelson (.449 OBP, .698 OPS) and Frank Fennely (.385 OPS, .716 OPS).

Starting pitching was a strong point. Three starters had ERA’s below 4.00 and the remainder of the rotation where all below 4.40. Somewhat of a surprise was the bullpen, were only one member (Jeff Zimmerman) recorded and ERA under 3.25, and only by a narrow margin.

Overall, the Lady’s made the playoffs all 20 seasons (16 division titles) and never once finished with fewer than 87 wins, and fifteen times the finished in the 90’s. They were in fact tied in total wins with our #2 team, but received the lower ranking due to their slightly inferior run differential.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 2 – Dan Brouthers: .854 OPS, .327 / .392 / .462, 40 2B, 117 R, 97 RBI
Rd 3 – Jason Giambi: .833 OPS, .284 / .384 / .448, 34 2B, 23 HR, 101 R, 116 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 1 – Lady Baldwin: 17-10, 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 246 IP, 302 K
Rd 4 – Ben Sanders: 15-11, 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 234 IP, 225 K
Rd 7 – Charlie Buffinton: 7-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 95 IP, 94 K, 15 GS

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Jeff Zimmermann: 5-6, 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 115 IP, 59 K, 31 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 17 – Buck Ewing. Not a major thing, but Ewing was drafted as a 1st string catcher and batted .234 / .260 / .312, but not much else can be expected from a 17th round catcher

Value Draft Pick
Rd 29 – Charley Jones: .354 OBP, .399 SLG in 190 AB per sim
Also note Josh Hamilton who batted .343 / .388 / .492 in 951 total at bats

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine
#3, 93 Wins – Big Dan and the Ladys

20 Resims Summary - #4, Londonderry Machine

2011-08-18T04:15:00.001-04:00

#4 – Londonderry Machine
Owner: Brad P
Activity Level: Moderate
Park Factor: About average

With a #4 ranking, the Machine are labeled “the best team to miss the playoffs” in the regular season. Only a handful of teams performed this much below their resim averages and no team lost as much due to bad luck as this one.

The resims proved this was a very good team, making the playoffs 70% of the time and ending as division winners 5 times. While they didn’t have as high a Max Wins or a Max Win Potential as others, neither did they have as low ceiling. Only four times did their win total dip below 80.

The only glaring flaw on this team was the starting pitching. Despite Babe Adams, no starter kept their ERA in the three’s, which maybe more of an indictment on their defense than anything else. The more ATB owners turn to defense, the harder it is not to focus on it. With 3 Av and only 1 Ex defender taking the field, it is very difficult for pitchers to perform up to expectations.

Finally, Ross Barnes was the real thing and will be a legit top 5 pick going forward. In the twenty resims, overall he was

2nd in Batting Average
3rd in Triples
6th in On Base Percentage
6th in Runs Created and RC/27
6th in OPS

Basically, he bats like Tip O’Neill but plays stellar (Ex) defense at one of the weakest positions, 2nd base.

Comparing him directly to his second base brethren, it is clear he is now the best in game:

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Ross Barnes: .893 OPS, .346 / .421 / .472, 29 2B, 23 3B, 101 R, 120 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 9 – Dennis Eckersley: 5-5, 2.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 79 IP, 65 K, 38 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 3 – Billy Hamilton. I might be overly harsh because the man had a .378 OBP, but with so many good CF and on a team where only one person reached 20 HR, perhaps this 3rd pick could have been used on someone like Duke Snider (.283 / .349 / 464) or another legit starter a la Cannonball Titcomb or Ben Sanders.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 30 – Joey Votto. It’s only a total of 1400 at bats over 20 seasons, but Votto batted .281 / .351 / .427

Honorable mention to Ross Barnes. A gutsy call for Brad to take this unknown in the 1st round, but it easily was worth it.

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine

20 Resims Summary - #5, John McDonald Fanclub

2011-08-17T12:45:00.000-04:00

#5 – John McDonald Fanclub
Owner: Jason B
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Very High 1B, 2B, 3B, low HR

Surprise! Due to the Fanclub’s inauspicious start to the season and poor September, nobody realized this was in fact a very good team. Led by the 2nd best pitching in the league, John McDonald won on average 85 games per season. 16 times they were above .500 and had at least 90 wins on five different occasions.

With a great defense behind them, three starters held ERA’s under 4.00 while the last two, Guy Hecker and Dwight Gooden, were good starters as well. Both returned ERA’s at 4.30 or better. Seven different relievers had ERA’s in the three’s.

Offensively, this team hit its share of extra base hits, was better than average in stolen bases, and was Top 10 in batting average. Where it suffered was on-base percentage. Outside of their top to picks, Norm Cash (see below) and Tris Speaker (.334 / .397 / .400, 103 R, 62 SB), no other batter on their entire team could muster a .345 OBP. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez could only manage .257.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Norm Cash: .841 OPS, .301 / .385 / .456, 23 HR, 93 R, 95 RBI
Rd 6 – Albert Belle: .845 OPS, .291 / .341 / .484, 29 HR, 92 R, 105 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 3 – Cy Blanton: 14-10, 3.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 218 IP, 127 K
Rd 9 – Ron Guidry: 12-11, 3.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 201 IP, 158 K
Rd 22 – Silver King: 8-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 134 IP, 60 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Gabe White: 6-5, 2.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 87 IP, 67 K
Rd 24 – Dan Quisenberry: 7-2, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 157 IP, 42 K

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 12 – Joe Tinker. Yeah, he is a defensive minded specialist but you can’t have someone batting .236 / .264 / .311 in your every day lineup.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 22 – Silver King (see above)

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub

20 Resims Summary - #6, DC Chips

2011-08-17T08:42:00.002-04:00

#6 – DC Chips
Owner: Steve C
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Pitchers

There are several aspects of the 6th ranked ATB champions for us to wonder about. First and foremost, and I know I have harped on this, despite 300 days lost due to injury, including significant missed time for several stars, Steve piloted his team to more regular season wins than the injury free 20-resims. Frankly, this is incredible and a testament to his lineup and rotation diligence and creativity.

Second, the Chips had the largest spread between their min and max wins, ranging from 11 games below .500 to 19 games above. Their max win potential was tied for the best in the entire league. Players like Ty Cobb, Rickey Henderson, Lefty Grove, and Bobby Shantz have such wide swings in their performance it makes for a roller coaster 20 re-sims. This team only had 11 seasons above .500.

Third - Lefty Grove. Finally he did well!

Fourth – Bobby Shantz. Dropped outright by Hathsin in May, Steve and foresight to pick him up as a free agent and it paid great dividends.

The knock on this squad are the batting selections made between rounds 7 and 16, none of which achieved a .700 OPS. Had the Chips gotten more from their offense here, they would have been a top-3 team.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Ty Cobb: .801 OPS, .315 / .353 / .446, 37 2B, 18 3B, 91 R, 31 SB

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 9 – Lefty Grove: 8-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 133 IP, 88 K
Rd 13 – Fergie Jenkins: 13-12, 3.83 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 211 IP, 130 K
FA – Bob Ojeda: 11-9, 3.72 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 182 IP, 75 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 5 – Joe Neale: 11-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 179 IP. 133 K
Rd 6 – Mariano Rivera: 11-7, 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 157 IP, 122 K, 23 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Willie Mays: .241 / .289 / .404, .693 OPS in a platoon

Value Draft Pick
Rd 26 – Whit Wyatt: 3.66 ERA, 76 IP

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips

20 Resims Summary - #7, Hathsin Survivors

2011-08-16T07:31:00.003-04:00

#8 – Hathsin Survivors
Owner: Lou P
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Increase 1B, 2B, 3B and suppress HR

This was a fun, if not particularly good, team. Bludgeoning opponents with a solid offense playing in an extreme hitters park, Hathsin scored the most runs of any team in the resims at 871. Their starting offense averaged an .791 OPS with three different people scoring 100 runs. Further, three ‘new to ATB’ players were a success too – catcher Fred Carroll (.407 OBP), George Hall (see below), and Ed Swartwood (see below).

For all that, Lou had a terrible draft picking many of these players up too early at the expense of the pitching staff, ranked 3rd to last in the game. Hall played out of position with a 300 Error Rate and Lou then traded up for Charlie Gehringer of all people then played him out of position too. With this awful defense and the addition of a batters park, even proven greats like Walter Johnson (4.36 ERA) struggled.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Ted Williams: .982 OPS, .349 / .452 / .530, 31 HR, 125 R, 130 RBI
Rd 7 – George Hall: .860 OPS, .329 / .477 / .484, 25 3B, 107 RBI
Rd 14 – Frank Thomas: .835 OPS in a platoon
Rd 25 – Ed Swartwood: .812 OPS, .320 / .377 / .436

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 6 – Cal Mcvey: .733 OPS in bandbox playing the deepest position in ATB, center field. He's not a bad player, and actually starter quality, but could have been had 10 rounds later.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 25 – Swartwood

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors

20 Resims Summary - #8, Rusty Kuntz All Stars

2011-08-16T07:16:00.002-04:00

#8 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
Owner: Shotgun S
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Increase 1B, 2B, 3B heavily suppress HR

Shotgun’s team was very interesting to investigate. On one hand, the reached 96 wins in one of the re-sim’s and were our first team with a 99 Max Win Potential. On the other hand they also suffered through a 95 loss season and have no standout batters or starting pitchers.

A playoff team in regular season and the re-sims, Shotgun did something no other team has done so far – avoided the clunker. One has to look all the way down the draft board to Rd 22 before they find a player with and OPS below .700, and that’s the backup third basemen relegated to 8 AB’s per season. The next pick by the way was Kevin Mitchell who compiled a .777 OPS (in 84 AB).

On the pitching side of the house, only one player on the whole team averaged a 5+ ERA, and that was 25th rounder Lefty Gomez. (Of course he did start 30 games as the last starter in a 4-man rotation, and that did not help the win/loss record).

In a nutshell, Shotgun played it very safe and the result was a playoff contender 85% of the time.

800 OPS Batters
None. Quite incredible for the 8th ranked team with home games in a batters park not to average one player with an OPS of .800

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None.

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – JJ Putz: 5-5, 2.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 68 IP, 58 K, 36 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 8 – Joe Wood. Not a true bust, but Wood average a 4.46 ERA in 248 IP. Rusty needed a bit more from their #2.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 30 – Chicken Wolf: 112 AB, .307 AVG, .356 OBP

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars

20 Resims Summary - #9, Helena Handbasket

2011-08-14T09:35:00.001-04:00

#9 – Helena Handbasket
Owner: Joe T
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Increase 1B, 2B, 3B heavily suppress HR

Two things immediately come to mind when reviewing Helana’s data. The first is Robbie Alomar in Round 4! C’mon Joe T, you know better! With such a poor offense, Alomar really hindered the Handbasket’s this year. His defense was very good, not great, and a .615 OPS in a Top-5 round hurts, especially since he went with Ozzie Smith in Rd 9.

The second is the win disparity between the regular season and resims. With 95 wins in ATB XIII, Joe was the third ranked team and a division winner. He made weekly lineup changes and multiple Free Agent moves and should be credited for his managerial skills, this team shined under his soft hands.

Helena made the playoffs 9 teams and had our best single season yet – a 97 win, +118 run differential in resim #6.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Oscar Charleston: .805 OPS, .303 / .348 / .458, 20 HR, 91 R, 98 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 9 – Chris Carpenter: 17-16, 3.77 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 281 IP, 115 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Eric Gagne: 4-3, 2.36 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 63 IP, 85 K, 21 Sv
Rd 12 – BJ Ryan: 5-4, 2.36 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 64 IP, 58 K, 21 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Roberto Alomar: .615 OPS, .240 / .320 / .294, 2 HR, 38 RBI

Value Draft Pick
No standouts, but Kenny Williams in Rd 21 was a nice pinch hitter/backup. He had a .774 OPS in 60 AB per year.

Sweet Free Agent Pickup
Reliever Peter Moylan – 6-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 108 IP

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket

20 Resims Summary - #10, Kakadu Didgeridoos

2011-08-14T08:40:00.001-04:00

#10 – Kakadu Didgeridoos
Owner: TJ O
Activity Level: Extremely Low
Park Factor: Neutral

The Didgeridoos are our second team to make the playoffs during the regular season, only to finish outside the top-8 during the re-sims. Unlike the Willets Point Mechanics case though, the Didgeridoos were on the playoff bubble most of the time and are truly a playoff caliber team.

Owner TJ O drafted almost purely based on the 100 resim findings, resulting in a solid 30 man squad. Of course, with no risky picks there was no true reward, which one can see plainly below. He had no real bust draft picks, but he had no great values either.

The two stars of the team were first basemen Lou Gehrig and closer Jonathan Papelbon. Aside frop Nap Lajoie, the rest of team are interchangeable parts. I do like seeing Sammy Sosa hold his own at least, belting 34 home runs and driving in 103.

Kakadu made the playoffs half the time and were above .500 13 times out of 20.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Lou Gehrig: .999 OPS, .313 / .407 / .592, 38 2B, 11 3B, 36 HR, 111 R, 124 RBI
Rd 2 – Nap Lajoie: .811 OPS, .329 / .360 / .451, 42 2B, 101 R

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 4 – Garland Braxton: 15-11, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 224 IP, 118 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 9 – Jonathan Papelbon: 2.63 ERA, 28 Sv, 1.23 WHIP, 85 IP, 65 K

Bust Draft Pick
No true busts, but Rd 8 – Hal Newhouser: 4.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 202 IP, 233 H

Value Draft Pick
No true value, but Rd 21 – Jason Isringhausen: 3.82 ERA, 88 IP, 62 K

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos

All Time Standings Update

2011-08-13T08:02:00.002-04:00

Despite not making the playoffs, Lou P jumps to first place overall after last years leader Justin P, suffers through a dismal 68 win season. There were no other major changes in the standings.

Here are the full standings.

A note on methodology. The all time standings are based upon regular season winning percentage, # of post seasons made, # of world series titles, and # of seasons played.

The last is a critcal point to understand. We have owners who have played 4 seasons and others who have played for 14. The owner with relatively few seasons under his belt would never have a shot at the # 1 Ranking if we just used the total regular season wins. But, by the same token, it would be fair for a new owner with 1 great season under his belt to be ranked #1 overall.

For the past 5 years or so, I've instituted a reduction policy. The Power Point total is reduced by percentage points based upon # of seasons played:

No Reduction - 7+ seasons
5% Reduction - 4-6 seasons
10% Reduction - 3 seasons
20% Reduction - 2 seasons
50% Reduction - 1 seasons

Here are the current standings with a few owners removed not playing recently and have few seasons to their credit:

1) 638 Pts - Lou Poulas
2) 634 Pts - Justin Petronzi
3) 632 Pts - Mike Smitko
4) 607 Pts - Steve Chippendale
5) 573 Pts - Sean Seeley
6) 571 Pts - Jason Bernarndon
7) 566 Pts - Brad Peterson
8) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski
9) 532 Pts - Joe Terry
10) 529 Pts - TJ Olszewski
11) 524 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter
12) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein
13) 502 Pts - Jeff Burns
14) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas
15) 482 Pts - Matt Brody
16) 473 Pts - Jay Seeley
17) 457 Pts - Ivar Anderson
18) 442 Pts - Shotgun Spratling
19) 421 Pts - Kevin Crowley
20) 417 Pts - Brian Barnes
27) 339 Pts - Allen Cherulnik
30) 315 Pts - Justin Burnson
46) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes

World Series Page

World Series G6: Surprise start by Grove pays off; gem leads DC to 2-1 win

2011-08-12T13:57:00.003-04:00

Chips 2, Slam Dumps 1
The DC Chips are World Champions!

In a surprise move, just before game time owner Steve C scratched the original plan of starting Bobby Shantz, and went with Lefty Grove. Grove was brilliant, only giving up 7 hits in 8 1/3 innings.

The Chips offense barely mustered enough runs against Hank Aguirre themselves, but somehow their 2-run first help up for the entire game. Derek Jeter led off the inning with a single and after a Chipper Jones line out, Ty Cobb walked. In a gutsy call, the double steal was on and it worked. Sure enough the next batter Henry Larkin singled home both runners for a 2-0 lead.

Newark had their best chance to score some runs in the eighth. With 2-outs Harry Heilmann singled up the middle allowing the great Mickey Mantle a shot. He singled, when the whole world wanted an extra base hit, but it brought power hitting Frank Robinson. Robinson had a league leading 143 RBI and 40 HR in the regular season could have quickly given his Slam Dumps the lead. Instead, Grove on his 135th pitch of the day, struck Robinson out on a 1-2 fastball.

Series MVP is Grove. In addition to his Game 6 victory, Grove relieved games 2 and 5, pitching 14 innings and giving up 9 hits while striking out 9. His ERA was 1.29. In game 2 he shut down Newark for 4 innings and picked up a save.

A hearty congratulations to Steve C. Despite the most injuries I have ever seen in ATB, and so many to star players in both the regular season and playoffs, he piloted the Chips to his second World Series title.

Steve donated two trophies for last season and this. He won't even have to mail it this time.

World Series Page

World Series G5: Robinson HR and 4 RBI help Newark, Bernhard win 5-3

2011-08-11T14:59:00.002-04:00

Slam Dumps 5, Chips 3
Newark stayed alive this afternoon, battling the Chips as well as a 43 degree chilly temperature at first pitch. On short rest Bill Bernhard delivered, pitching very well for 7 innings before tiring in the eight. His final line: 8 IP, 8 H, 3 R.

Frank Robinson homered in the 6th to break a 1-1 tie while Mickey Mantle added insurance with a solo blast of his own two innings later. Robinson on the afternoon went 3-4 with 4 RBI and a run scored.

The biggest blow to DC didn't come at the hands of Newark however. Incredibly, Stan Musial went down with yet another injury and is out the rest of the series.

Game 6 (and 7 if necessary) will be played in the Astrodome as the series moves back to DC.

World Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #11, Otherton Fishbiscuits

2011-08-11T07:25:00.002-04:00

#11 – Otherton Fish Biscuits
Owner: Brian B
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Extreme HR Park, but 90 for singles

Our previous team, the Beanballers, is in a virtual tie with the Fish Biscuits. They traded a little more upside for a little less consistency, plus Otherton narrowly averaged more wins per season. In fact, these two squads all the way through our #7 team are very close in talent, each averaging between 82-84 wins.

For their part, the Fish Biscuits had a draft strategy of focusing on home run hitters and stuck with it. Eight regulars hit double digits and 5 of them had at least 20. Interestingly enough, because the low singles rate in the park, the Fish Biscuits traded home runs for batting average and on base percentage, and it may not have worked as well as one would prefer. Their team OBP of .324 was in the lower quarter of the league and certainly prevented them from scoring more runs.

Pitching in the Baker Bowl was difficult as no starters were good enough to make the spotlight list below. The last three men in the rotation averaged a 5.03 ERA between them. Reliever Tim Burke was a bright spot however, compiling a 3.15 ERA in 146 IP. Yet another work horse reliever we’ve forced into duty the past 3-4 seasons.

One other tidbit to note. After the season ended, Brian asked me for an opinion as to whether Ruth or Maddux was the right draft choice for this team. I assume a wash, or at a minimum a slight edge for Ruth, but after 5 resims with the two switched, the Fish Biscuits added an average of 4 wins to their total.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Babe Ruth: 1.071 OPS, .278 / .421 / .650, 68 HR, 130 R, 143 RBI
Rd 2 – Willie McCovey: .819 OPS, .273 / .328 / .482, 40 HR, 91 R, 119 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Monty Stratton: 10-12, 4.85 ERA. This a stretch, the 4.85 ERA is not that bad in park with 300 HR factor from both sides.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 17 – Mike Jackson: 6-2, 3.74 ERA, 95 IP, 54 K

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers

World Series Page

World Series G4: Johnson weak on short rest + Musial's 3 RBI = DC 4-1 victory

2011-08-10T13:37:00.003-04:00

Chips 4, Slam Dumps 1
In a move that will no doubt be second guessed all winter long, down 2 games to 1 the Slam Dumps trotted out Randy Johnson on short rest in Game 4. He lasted 4 innings, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) mostly due to his wildness. Looking fairly effective through four, Johnson walked three in, the 5th, forcing in a run. Stan Musial then doubled to clear the bases, and gave the Chips a 4-1 lead that stood.

Whomever started for Newark would have mattered little, as Whit Wyatt was very effective in shutting down the Slam Dump offense. He tossed 8 innings of 1 run, 5 hit ball, and struck out 7.

The Chips no own a decisive 3-1 series lead. Probable starters for game 6 are two greats: Bobby Ojeda (15-6, 3.09) and Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38).

World Series Page

World Series G3: Pen saves DC from poor Shantz start; win 5-3 on cold night

2011-08-09T11:30:00.002-04:00

Chips 5, Slam Dumps 4
The DC Chips pen was one of the best in the league during the regular season. On this cold late October night, they proved once again how critical a bullpen can be to success. DC starter Bobby Shantz was chased from the game early, not making it through the 4th inning. On came the trio of Joe Neale, Doc White, and Mariano Rivera to shut down Newark to the tune of 4 hits and 1-run in 5 1/3 innings.

This allowed the Chips offense to extend a slight lead and go on to win 5-3. Rickey Henderson homered and drove in two and Derek Jeter tripled and singled.

World Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #12, Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers

2011-08-09T07:08:00.003-04:00

#12 – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
Owner: Justin P
Activity Level: Moderate
Park Factor: Batters Park

The Beanballers are definitely not a great team, but the poor luck they endured in the regular season cannot be minimized. With 14 fewer wins than their re-sim average, no other team underperformed as much – a full 17% fewer wins than was expected. The main culprit was 2nd rounder King Kelly whose .698 OPS was over 100 points worse than his resim average.

Sill, Justin should not remain blameless. Hooked by lure of the unknown, the Beanballers spent two picks in the first 10 Rounds on 1800s pitchers Denny Driscoll and Candy Cummings. By the end of May, both were released for poor performance. Even without these two in the resims, the Beanballers could only muster the 11th best runs against.

One major bright spot was oft-maligned Mike Schmidt. The third baseman has a long been denounced as an ATB player, with a half dozen owners wasting a draft pick on the power hitter only to be sorely disappointed. This season, even with a new 1981 season eligible, appeared to be no different. Schmidt batted .227 with a .310 on base in the regular season, only marginally better than past years. However, the resims showed he really is a top 10 third basemen, and perhaps even top 5 when considering is Ex/99 defense. Granted, the results are in a home run friendly park, but Schmidt batted .256 / .326 / 467, .793 OPS, 39 HR, 109 RBI and was second on the team in total bases.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Tip O’Neill: .893 OPS, .337 / .391 / .502, 49 2B, 101 R, 108 RBI
Rd 2 – King Kelly: .807 OPS, .325 / .402 / .405, 26 2B, 94 R

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 4 – Addie Joss: 14-12, 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 221 IP, 101 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Hong Chi Kuo: 2.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 71 IP, 55 K, 31 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Denny Driscoll: 7.04 ERA, 15 GS, Released
Rd 9 – Candy Cummings: 10.18 ERA, 10 G, Released

Value Draft Pick
Rd 24 – Manny Ramirez: .288 / .354 / .435 in 234 AB platoon

Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers

World Series Page

World Series G2: Blowout: Musial 2 HR and 5 RBI helps defeat Newark 11-4

2011-08-08T13:49:00.003-04:00

Chips 11, Slam Dumps 4
Bill Bernhard looked lost from the moment he took the mound, issuing a walk and back to back home runs in the first to Stan Musial and Todd Helton, putting his Slam Dumps in a 3-0 hole they never recovered from.

It got worse before it improved too. After giving up another run in the second, Bernhard was chased from the game in the third following Musial's second bomb of the night. Tim Keefe came on in relief and struck out the side, but not before three more Chips were plated on two doubles and two singles.

Bobby Ojeda struggled, giving up five hits, two walks, and three runs in 5 innings.

World Series Page

ATB XIII MVP

2011-08-08T08:24:00.000-04:00

Mickey Mantle enhanced his reputation as the best all around player in the game by easily outpacing Barry Bonds and Ross Barnes for the ATB XIII MVP.

Mantle was inexplicably left off two ballots, but garnered enough first place votes that it hardly matter. On the season, the Vg center fielder batted .352 / .451 / .528 with 23 HR and 119 RBI.

Accustomed to contending for the MVP year in and year out was Bonds. The left fielder had a great year belting 41 HR's with a .460 OBP.

However the talk in the off season will likely surround neither of these two. Instead, the Ex defending infielder Barnes will receive extreme attention heading into next ATB IV. Barnes batted .361 / .428 / .490 with 38 2B, 21 3B, and 41 SB.

Results
32 Pts - (5, 8) - Mickey Mantle (NSD)
18 Pts - (0, 6) - Barry Bonds (ICB)
16 Pts - (1, 8) - Ross Barnes (LM)
11 Pts - (1, 3) - Babe Ruth (OFB)
06 Pts - (1, 2) - Lou Gehrig (KD)
05 Pts - (1, 1) - Greg Maddux (WPM)
04 Pts - (0, 2) - Fred Dunlap (RKA)
01 Pt. - (0, 1) - Ted Williams (HS)

League Championship Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #13, Planet 10

2011-08-08T07:16:00.002-04:00

#13 – Planet 10
Owner: Ivar A
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Neutral (High HR, low 1B and 2B)

Even with 7 batters selected in the first 10 Rounds of the draft, Planet 10 was a pitching focused team. Their #1 pick Larry Walker faltered a bit, garnering just a .754 OPS. With Ex defense this is acceptable for a Round 2 or 3 selection, but can’t be justified in Rd 1 in a corner outfielder. Planet was in a tough position with the last pick of the draft, but I think Stan Musial, John McGraw, King Kelly, or even Dan Brouthers may have served this specific team a bit better.

Aside from George Brett in Rd 2, the rest of the lineup was shaky too. With a team OBP of just .320, 2nd worst in the league, their runs scored was near the bottom the league leaders.

Still, thanks to above average pitching, Planet made the playoffs seven times, reach 90 wins, and had a max win potential of 94. Cannonball Titcomb, with another great season, has proven himself an ace lelvel starter. This has to be a point of particular pride for Ivar, as he personally found Cannonball a year ago. Behind the team ace, Kevin Brown and the bullpen had great resims and led the team to the second best strikeout rate in the game.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 2 – George Brett: .830 OPS, .318 / .357 / .473, 21 2B, 15 HR

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 3 – Cannonball Titcomb: 13-12, 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 215 IP, 242 K
Rd 6 – Kevin Brown: 11-13, 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 210 IP, 83 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Joe Nathan: 2.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 42 IP, 46 K
Rd 13 – Troy Percival: 2.78 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 43 IP, 40 K, 22 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Rod Carew: .301 / .345 / .369 at First Base

Value Draft Pick
Rd 28 – Al Hrabosky: 46 IP, 3.25 ERA

#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins - Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10

World Series G1: DC starts reliever Game 1 of World Series; loses 6-4

2011-08-07T20:31:00.003-04:00

Slam Dumps 6, Chips 4
With a completely rested rotation, the DC Chips opted to start reliever Pascual Perez in game 1 for the 13th annual World Series. To the surprise of few, Perez struggled giving up 8 hits and 4 runs in three innings. Its sets up the DC rotation quite nicely for the rest of the series but one does wonder if it worth the sacrifice.

For the Slam Dumps, Randy Johnson struggled at times yielding 4 runs on 5 hits in 7 2/3 innings. Shortstop Robin Yount tripled and drove in two while Mickey Mantle singled in two of his own in the 4-run 4th that chased Perez.

Game 2 Probable Starters are the Slam Dumps Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38) vs DC's Bob Ojeda (15-6, 3.09).

World Series Page

World Series Preview

2011-08-06T10:00:00.004-04:00

Beginning Sunday night, the 87-75 DC Chips led by Steve C face off against the 87-75 Newark Slam Dumps. There may be other teams as deserving as these two, but none more so. Both owners are among the most active in the league, and both have had to battle through a tremendous injury strain throughout the regular season and playoffs.

The Chips have dealt with a league leading 290 days lost due to injury, and incredible amount, and 64 more days the team with the second most days lost. The injuries impacted star players too - Ty Cobb (68 days), Todd Helton (58 days), Fergie Jenins (38 days), Stan Musial (21 days), and Mariano Rivera (15 days).

While not as severe as DC, Newark has had their own burden to deal with. To date they have endure 35 different injuries, tops in the league and 17% more than any other team. 28 of these injuries have to been to starters or ace-type relievers.

Head to head this season, DC has taken 4 of 6 from Newark. But who is poised to win a best of seven now?

Starting Pitching
Edge: Newark

The two best starters on either team are Newark's Randy Johnson (12-10, 3.16) and Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38). DC counters with a relative unknown with mid-season pickup Bobby Ojeda (15-6, 3.09). The lefty came out of nowhere to have a stellar season, but with no track record it's difficult to know if he's luck or really this good.

During the regular season Newark starters compiled a 4.03 ERA, 5th best in league. DC's era was 7th best, but at 4.33 there's an appreciable difference between the two, especially considering DC plays their home games in a pitchers park, the Astrodome.

Relief Corps
Edge: DC

There is no question the DC bullpen is the better of the two. Joe Neale (213 IP, 2.15 ERA) and Mariano Rivera (2.47 ERA, 147 IP) are now household names synonymous with relief excellence. Doc White (118 IP, 3.42 ERA) adds flexibility as a spot starter or long reliever as well.

Newark counters with just two relievers compiling a regular season ERA below 4.00. Closers Rafael Soriano (3.49 ERA) and Rob Murphy (3.86 ERA) are solid but can be beaten.

Defense
Edge: Newark

Newark's most common lineup features 7 regulars with Vg defense and average fielding ratings significantly better than average. With Mickey Cochrane and is Ex throwing arm, this one of the better defenses in the game.

DC's defense is bit more haphazard. They feature Ex ranges in first an center, but just average defense at short and third, and routinely play Ty Cobb (Vg/80) out of position in right field. With an unimpressive starting catcher arm they are a little behind Newark in general ability.

Offense
Edge: Newark

Newark scored 858 runs, DC just 708. This is the largest advantage for Newark in any facet of the game. Led by Mickey Mantle (.980 OPS), eight regulars have OPS scores above .750 and as a team, the Slam Dumps have hit 126 home runs.

DC's lineup sports just three regulars with an OPS over .750 and have hit 95 home runs. As a team they are batting .257 / .323 / .360 which has led them to the third worst offense in the game.

Commish Predicton
Newark in 6. The Slam Dumps are the better team. Their run differential was +130 in the regular season, more than five times better than the Chips +23. In order for DC to win a short series, Bobby Ojeda must start well in three games, a tall order.

The wild card for both teams is the rotation. For now at least, it appears Steve and Sean will employ 3-man rotations throughout the World Series and starting on short rest can be very unpredictable. DC can win the title, but Newark should win it.

The World Series page is up an running.

LCS Game 6: Robinson, Mize send Newark on to face DC; win 5-3

2011-08-06T09:15:00.002-04:00

Slam Dumps 5, Kakadu 3
In a hard fought game, the Slam Dumps narrowly outplayed Kakadu and head the World Series on a 5-3 victory. First Basemen Johnny Mize singled home runners in the 2nd and 8th innings, and Frank Robinson added a double and a home run to the Newark cause.

Teddy Higuera pitched well for the win, lasting 6 innings giving up 4 hits and a run. Huston Street struggled out of the pen, but Rob Murphy and Rafael Soriano nailed down the final 5-outs for the win.

Series MVP is Rafael Soriano. This was a difficult call, but the closer shut down the Didgeridoos on three different occasions, recording the save in each.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 5: Kakadu stays alive with 9-3 throttling of Newark

2011-08-04T20:03:00.002-04:00

Didgeridoos 9, Slam Dumps 3
The bottom of the Didgeridoo order did all the damage tonight, collecting 9 hits and 9 RBI in the easy win over Newark. Garland Braxton was strong for the win - a complete game 6 hitter.

With the game tied at two, the fifth opened with two walks, a triple, and a sac fly. Two inning later Roy Campanella hit a 2-run shot to cap a four run inning.

The series heads back to Kakadu for games 6 and 7. With Randy Johnson slated for game 7, it would seem Kakadu needs to win tomorrow against Teddy Higuera.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 5: Blowout: DC heads to the World Series with 11-1 win

2011-08-04T12:44:00.003-04:00

Chips 11, Gossamer's 1
Despite just about as many hits, the Gossamer's scored just 1 run against the Chips 11 and DC heads to the show with 4-1 series win.

Gossamer star pitcher Pedro Martinez was shelled, leaving the game with 1-out in second after giving up 6 earned runs. After recording his first out, Martinez yielded 4 consecutive singles followed by two walks. With three runs in, the Gossamer's turned to their pen, but Arthur Rhodes surrendered a two run double to Ty Cobb and a sac fly to Willie Mays. When the dust settle 6 runs had scored and the game was virtually over.

Lefty Grove and the DC pen allowed plenty of runners to reach the bases, but recorded the key outs when they needed to stranding 12 on base.

DC moves on and will face the winner of the Newark-Kakadu series in the world series.

League Championship Series Page

ATB XIII Cy Young Award

2011-08-04T08:05:00.002-04:00

Unlike reliever of the year, the Cy Young award was never in doubt. Greg Maddux posted the best season we've seen in thirteen years of ATB and swept all first place votes. He set a new record for regular season wins and even received a vote for the MVP. His final line is memorable: 23-3, 1.92 ERA, 262 IP, 160 K, 1.06 WHIP, 2.20 ERA.

No slouch, Pedro Martinez swept all second place votes and under normal circumstances could have won the award himself: 22-7, 2.63 ERA, 260 IP, 268 K, 1.00 WHIP, 2.44 ERA

50 Pts (10,10) - Greg Maddux (WPM)
30 Pts (0, 10) - Pedro Martinez (GCG)
03 Pts (0, 3) - Ben Sanders (BDL)
02 Pts (0, 2) - Scott Stratton (GCG)
02 Pts (0, 2) - Bill Bernhard (NSD)
01 Pt. (0, 1) - Mariano Rivera (DC)
01 Pt. (0, 1) - Joe Neale (DC)
01 Pt. (0, 1) - Cannonball Titcomb (P10)

League Championship Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #14, Island Creek Bivalves

2011-08-03T20:06:00.004-04:00

#14 – Island Creek Bivalves
Owner: Jeff B
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Batters

The Bivalves finished the regular season on the cusp of playoff contention. Had the resims followed the model of the ‘real’ season and 83 wins were good enough for a Bonus Wild Card berth, this team would have been playoff bound four times. In the resims however, play was a bit better and they went to the post season just once, thanks to fine 87 win season. We’re just now beginning to see quality seasons emerge, and Island creek had a positive RD five times.

With just about an average offense, their main issue was run prevention. Ranked 15th, their bullpen was solid but they drafted three mediocre pitchers in Rounds 1-10 and never quite recovered.

One oddity I did notice and had to share – how does one average a 3.78 in over 1200 innings with a WHIP of 1.68. That’s exactly what closer Tom Henke managed: 61 IP, 72 H, 31 BB.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Barry Bonds: 1.007 OPS, .299 / .455 / .551, 39 HR, 119 R, 101 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 11 – Cla Merideth: 2.85 ERA, 101 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 7 Saves

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 8 – David Cone: 11-11, 4.58 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Value Draft Pick
Rd 18 – Dale Murray, rp: 3.62 ERA, 54 IP

Countdown
#18 - Texas Gringos
#17 - Nottingam Outlaws
#16 - Downsouth Brews
#15 - Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14 - Island Creek Bivalves

(Here's the form we're populating as we go along. Teams not yet identified are blacked out)

LCS Game 4: Bernard 6 hits over 8 innings leads Newark in 4-1 win

2011-08-03T13:33:00.003-04:00

Slam Dumps 4, Didgeridoos 1
The team goal for Newark heading into the LCS was one of containment. Keep Lou Gehrig in check, and Kakadu would go meekly into the night. With an 0-3 night and 2 K's, the lefty Gehrig continues to struggle against the lefty laden Newark rotation. For the series, Gehrig has been held to a .400 slugging percentage and no RBI.

The star of this night was Bill Bernard. After giving up a solo shot to Joe Torre in the 2nd, Bernard more than settled in, retiring 20 of the next 24 batters before tiring with 2-outs in eighth and giving way to the bullpen. Newark did the bulk of their damage in the 5th thanks in part to a Robin Yount home run. An error by Kakadu shortstop Lou Boudreau helped extend the inning and leading to two more unearned runs.

Unlike the DC-Gold Country series, it is difficult to imagine Kakadu winning two in a row a this point.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 4: Mays rescue's Ojeda short rest bid with 2 HR; DC wins 6-2

2011-08-03T10:00:00.001-04:00

Chips 6, Gossamers 2
Electing to go with a 3-man rotation for the remainder of the series almost backfired on the DC Chips. Starting on short rest, Bobby Ojeda threw nearly 60 pitches in 2 1/3 innings and was yanked from the game before any real damage was done. The Chips elite bullpen nailed down the rest of the game giving up just one more run .

Willie Mays was the star of the game, belting home runs in the 3rd and 8th innings, and driving in 3. It was homerfest for the Chips as Chipper Jones and Hank Greenberg did additional damage with longball too.

The stars of the regular season now find themselves down 3 games to 1, on the verge of exiting the playoffs earlier than expected. Still, it is not difficult to envision a game 7 at this point in time. Pedro Martinez, the best pitcher in ATB history and due for a great game, takes the mound in game 5. The Game 6 matchup is favorable to the Gossamers as well - Scott Stratton (18-8, 2.93) vs Bobby Shantz on short rest. That leaves us with a game 7 between non-star pitchers (Cliff Lee vs Ojeda?) where anything can happen. Buckle up, the ride has just begun!

League Championship Series Page

ATB XIII Reliever of the Year

2011-08-03T07:50:00.002-04:00

Or should I say Relievers of the year. For the first time in our history, we have a tie for a post season award. In fact, top to bottom, the voting was extremely close.

Mariano Rivera and Joaquin Benoit will share the honors this season. Voters had a difficult time with the non-closing Rivera resulting in two diverging schools of thought. In general, voters put Rivera and his high innings pitched count on the ballot right next to teammate Joe Neale and his high innings pitched count.

Or in contrast, voters left both Rivera and Neale off the ballot focusing on traditional closers like Benoit and Jonathan Papelbon. In fact, both the third and sixth place finishers appeared on more ballots than our winners

The tale of the tape:

Benoit -- 3-1, 1.45 ERA,, 74 IP,, 71 K, 36 Sv, 1.09 WHIP, 2.31 RCERA
Rivera - 13-5, 2.47 ERA, 157 IP, 114 K, 10 Sv, 0.88 WHIP, 1.86 RCERA

The full ballot below (Total Pts, 1st Place Votes, Total Ballots, Name)
21 (4, 5) - Mariano Rivera (DC)
21 (3, 5) - Joaquin Benoit (WPM)
16 (1, 6) - Jonathan Papelbon (KD)
14 (2, 4) - Eric Gagne (HH)
14 (0, 6) - Joe Neale (DC)
02 (0, 2) - Rafael Betancourt (GCG)
01 (0, 1) - Dick Hall (KD)
01 (0, 1) - Andrew Bailey (OFB)

League Championship Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #15, Willets Point "Mechanics"

2011-08-02T15:05:00.003-04:00

#16 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
Owner: Matt B
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Batters

After piloting his team to 90 wins and a playoff berth, this 16th ranking will come as a mighty blow to owner Matt B. Coming into the 20 resims with a negative run differential in the regular season, it was a matter of some doubt how the team would fare. Below average in both pitching and batting though, Willets Point just could not compete year in and year out.

The biggest difference was Greg Maddux. In the resims his average line was 19-11 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Not one of the individual resim seasons approached his level of success in ATB XIII: 23-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Still this is a team with some potential as the made the postseason 20% of the time. Another bat in the lineup or a starting pitcher would have gone a long way to making this team a perennial contender.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 4 – Willie Stargell: .811 OPS, .253 / .305 / .506, 34 2B, 35 HR, 95 RBI.

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 1 – Greg Maddux

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 13 – Joaquin Benoit: 2.67 ERA, 62 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 33 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
I don’t know that it’s a bust for Rd 15, but Felix Hernandez (5.24 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) isn’t good enough to start.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 15 – Lindy McDaniel: 3.77 ERA, 177 IP as a reliever.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 3: Newark wins 1-0 duel; Howard pinch-hit HR in 8th wins it

2011-08-02T14:05:00.002-04:00

Slam Dumps 1, Didgeridoos 0
Late in the game in the midst of a pitchers duel, Frank Howard came off the bench to pinch hit and blasted a home run to deep right. It proved to be the game winner and Newark now leads the series 2 games to 1.

Kakadu threatened in the 4th when Lou Gehrig double with one out, but couldn't score on Joe Torre blistering single the next at bat. Newark pitcher Randy Johnson, fresh off the DL, calmed down and struck the last two batters to end the inning. He went on and struck out 7 of the next 10 batters and yielded to the pen with the contest still tied.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 3: Musial returns, triples; now Henderson exits but DC wins 6-4

2011-08-02T13:09:00.002-04:00

Chips 6, Gold Country 4
The good news for DC is they are now up 2 games to 1 in the series; the bad news as the day Stan Musial returns to the lineup they lose Rickey Henderson for the next three games. In the 5th it appeared the left fielder came up limping after hitting a lazy fly ball to lef.t

After a rough start for Bobby Shantz (3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER), Lefty Grove and Mariano Rivera held Gold Country scoreless the rest of the games. Ty Cobb drove in two while Musial and Hank Greenberg added two hits and RBI each.

League Championship Series Page