Round 1, Game 3s - Two Top Seeds on the Brink

Cartwright

• Incredibly, the 32nd seeded Blackbirds now have a 3-0 series lead over the 1st seeded DC Chips.  In game 3, Judy Johnson, Josh Gibson, and Joe Medwick homered in a 5-4 win.
• The Miners and Shillelaghs continue to trade blows, with the Miners winning 5-3.  Scott Stratton did his willow tree impersonation, spreading 12 hits over 7 innings but giving up just 3 runs.  Shamokin leads the series 2-1.
• Darren Daulton slammed a 2-run go ahead home run in the 9th, giving the Shadows a 4-3 win over the Fly Traps.  They lead 2-1.
• Goose Goslin and Norm Cash combined for 6 RBI to save Snowhole from certain elimination at the hands of the Phighting Philbens.  The 9-2 blowout gives them their first victory of the series, the Philbens lead 2-1.

Barrow

• Bellevue Freakin Franchise find themselves in the same place as the Chips, a top seed that is now down 3-0 to an inferior team.  The Green Sox won a slug fest 11-7 behind Oyster Burns multi-hit night and 4 RBI.
• Rusty Kuntz are on the brink of advancing, winning 10-5 over the NY Blues.  Ted Williams banged out 4 hits, including a home run in the win.  His squad leads 3-0.
• The Redlegs get on the board, beating the Gossamers 4-3.  Starter John Clarkson struggled but his pen bailed him out, closing the game with 4 2/3 scoreless innings.  The Gossamers lead the series 2-1.
• With the second consecutive victory, the Slam Dumps take a 2-1 series lead over The Wildlings.  Harry Heilmann was the start, going 3-4 with 2 RBI.

O'Malley

• The Brews take a 2-1 series lead, shutting out the 2nd ranked Red Eagles, 6-0.  Chris Carpenter tossed a shutout.
• It took 12 innings, but Rochester won their first game of the tournament, defeating Planet 10 2-1.  Hal Newhouser gave up just 3 hits over 8 innings.
• Monty Stratton scattered 8 hits and a run over 8 innings, allowing his Pinata Beaters to open up a 2-1 series lead over Rod Beck.
• Dyerseville bested Mendham an a series where both owners are not watching.  Dyersville leads 2-1.

Rickey

• The Ladies avoid a 3-0 deficit, bruising Lusitania 12-4.  The Yaz homered twice and drove in 4.
• Howard Johnson homered and drove in three in a 6-1 "Mechanics" victory over the Fishbiscuits.  The win gives them a 2-1 series lead.
• Dick Allen led his Fanclub to a 9-5 victory over Madness.  He homered twice and recorded 3 RBI.  Fanclub leads 2-1.
• The Slammers defeated Helena 9-4 for their first win of the tournament.  Incredibly and true to their name, they hit 6 home runs in the win.

Round 1, Game 2s

In bullet form.  Reports and Bracket

Alexander Cartwright Bracket

• The last ranked Frontiers open a 2-0 series lead and head for home, beating the Chips on 2 Lajoie HR's.
• The Phighting Philbens open a 2-0 lead of their own over Snowhole thanks to a solid start from Jack Chesbro and homers off the bats of Jason Giambi, the Mick, Brian Giles.
• The Fighting Shillelaghs tied their series vs the Miners at 1s behind a solid start by John Tudor.
• Ben Zobrist walks off with a 2-run single for Brighton, knotting their series with Fly Traps at 1.

Ed Barrow Bracket

• Freakin Franchise, the #1 ranked team in the bracket, continues to struggle losing their second game in as many nights against the Colorado Green Sox.  Bullet Joe Rogan homered twice and drove in 4 in the win.
• Wade Boggs (3-5) and Harvey Haddix (7 IP, 2 H) lead the All Stars over the Blues and now lead the series 2-0.
• Monty Stratton tosses a complete game shutout for the Gossamers, who have yielded just 2 runs in 2 games and the Redlegs and now lead 2-0
• The Slam Dumps needed 10 innings to beat the Wildlings, winning behind a 10 inning complete game by Bill Bernhard.

Walter O'Malley Bracket

• Five Red Eagles have multi-hit nights, leading their squad in a 8-3 victory over the Brews.  The series is tied 1-1.
• Planet 10 leads Rochester 2-0 thanks to Chase Utely 4-5, 4 RBI performance in a 10-1 blowout.
• Spanish Harlem comes back to tie their series with Rod Beck.  Oscar Charleston homered on John Olerud recorded 4 RBI.
• Mendham wins their game two versus the Black Sox, 4-3.  Tony Perez's solo shot was the difference maker.

Branch Rickey Bracket

• Lusitania wins won for Samuel Thomas, scoring 4 in the bottom of the ninth to best the Pretty Ladies 6-5.  An e-8 by Cy Seymour was the ultimate blow, but Bill Joyce's 3-run home run a few outs earlier tied the game.  Lusitania leads 2-0.
• Noodles Hahn gives up 6 hits and a run over 8 innings, leading his Biscuits in a 2-1 win over the "Mechanics".  This series is tied at 1-1
• Fanclub comes back from a disappointing game 1, winning 8-5 over Absurdville.  Honus Wagner doubled and tripled in the win.
• And finally, Helena opens a 2-0 series lead against Saginaw, besting them 4-2.  Kevin Mitchell's double and home run proved to be the difference maker.

Games 3 will be run around noon tomorrow.  Feel free to send in any lineups changes.

Upset City in Round 1, Game 1 of the Owners Appreciation Tournament

As far as I can tell, all owners who planned on submitting lineups have done so and since the anticipation was beginning to cause physical pain, I ran all Game 1's this morning.  It wasn't pretty for those with high seeds.

Alexander Cartwright Bracket

• The #1 seeded DC Chips fell to the Blackbirds 3-0, thanks to a dominating performance by Mort Cooper
• The 8th seed Shadows lost to the 25th seeded Venus Flytraps 5-3.  The underdogs were powered by a 4 run 4th, capped by a 3-run Mickey Cochrane homer.
• Elsewhere, as expected, the Miners got past the Shillelaghs and the Philbens beat Snowhole.

Ed Barrow Bracket

• Al Orth tossed a 7-hit complete game in a 7-1 Colorado (29th seed) victory over Bellevue (4th seed).   Colorado managed only 8 hits, but made them count, winning easily.
• Thanks to a strong performance from their bullpen, the 21st seeded Wildlings squeaked by the 12th seeded Slam Dumps 3-1 
• Elsewhere, as expected, the Gossamers took care of the Redlegs and the All-Stars bested the Blues.

Walter O'Malley Bracket

• Continuing the upset theme, the 2nd seeded Red Eagles lost in extra innings to the Brews, 5-4.  The tied the game in the 9th off Dennis Eckersley, and won it in the 11th with Eck still in the game.
• I Miss Rod Beck (27th) defeated the Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters (7th) 5-2.  Larry Doby knocked in 3 and Roger Bresnahan doubled twice in the win.
• Elsewhere, as expected, Planet 10 won their match against the Beau Brummels and the Black Sox where victorious against the Maulers.

Branch Rickey Bracket

• The Absurdville Madness upset John McDonald in a 27 vs 6 matchup.  Addie Joss was too much for the Fanclub, lasting into 9th inning for the win.
• In another upset, Buck Leonard's 2 home runs led the "Mechanics" over the Biscuits 5-2.
• Elsewhere, as expected, Lusitania lashed Lancaster and Helena slammed the Slammers

So there you have it, a day of upsets.  The #1, #2, #4, #6, #7, and #8 seeds all lost. 

Reports, box scores, and brackets all linked to the right.  Game 2's tomorrow night.

Lineups Due Wed, 8 PM

The plan is to run Game 1's that night.

Team Batting and Pitching Totals (With Parks)

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/OwnersAppreciation_Tournament_Bracket.xlsx

Roster Grid

Here's the Roster Grid for all 32 teams.  Great stuff.  Linked on the right as well.

For kicks, the most common players at each position...

Catcher
3 - Mickey Cochrane

First Base
4 - John Olerud
3 - Willie McCovey
3 - Buck Leonard
3 - Bill Terry

Second Base
5 - Eddie Collins
3 - Roberto Alomar

Third Base
3 - Howard Johnson
3 - Wade Boggs

Shortsop
4 - Ozzie Smith
3 - Pop Lloyd
3 - Honus Wagner

Left Field
3 - Ted Williams
3 - Carl Yaztrzemski

Center Field
5 - Mickey Mantle
3 - Oscar Charleston

Right Field
(No one more than twice)

Designated Hitter
(No one more than twice)

Starters
3 - Greg Maddux
3 - Addie Joss
3 - Randy Johnson
3 - Jack Chesbro
3 - Bill Bernhard
3 - Jesse Tannehill
3 - Cy Blanton
3 - Teddy Higuera

Relievers
4 - Jim Poole
3 - Kent Tekulve
3 - JJ Putz
3 - Huston Street
3 - Rafael Soriano
3 - Hoyt Wilhelm
3 - Joakim Soria

Each Team's Odds of Winning the Tournament

I am not that adept at figuring odds but I did a little research and I believe I found a way to calculate the rough odds of each team winning the tournament.  The methodology solely uses Pythagorean Winning Percentage as the means of determining which team is best for each match-up.

For instance, the DC Chips and their .702 Wpct will face off against the Niagara Frontier Blackbirds and their .405 Wpct in round 1.  Using a Bill James method of determining the chances of one team beating another, it gives the Chips a 78% chance at winning that particular series.

If all goes according to plan, in Round 2 the Chips would face the Shamokin Miners (.561 Wpct) and their odds of winning drops to 65%.  In Round 3, again according to plan, the Chips would face the Brighton Shadows (.624 Wpct and 59% odds of winning); Round 4 would be against Bellevue Freakin Franchise (.657 Wpct and 55% chance to win); and finally they'd meet the Manetheren Red Eagles in the Championship (.648 Wpct and the Chips have a 56% chance to win that series).

Add that all up and you get a 9.1% chance of the Chips winning it all, if the team with the better winning percentage won each of the other series.  This is roughly 11-1 Odds.  We know there will be upsets and to account for that, and this is a huge leap of math faith, I lopped off 35% from the Odds, and ultimately gave the Chips 7-1 Odds to win it all.

This was repeated for every freakin' team, and here are the results.

COMISH'S ODDS AT WINNING THE OWNER APPRECIATION TOURNAMENT
7-1: (Rk 1) ATB 10 DC Chips (Steve C)
13-1: (Rk 4) ATB 11 Bellevue Freakin Franchis (Brad P)
13-1: (Rk 2) ATB 9 Manetheren Red Eagles (Lou P)
16-1: (Rk 3) ATB 12 Lusitania Death Speakers (Mike S)
16-1: (Rk 6) ATB 11 John McDonald Fanclub (Jason B)
20-1: (Rk 5) ATB 13 Gold Country Gossamers (Justin B)
21-1: (Rk 7) ATB 15 Span. Harlem Pinata Beaters (Justin P)
21-1: (Rk 8) ATB 15 Brighton Shadows (David K)
23-1: (Rk 10) ATB 9 Dyersville Black Sox (Mike T)
28-1: (Rk 9) ATB 8 Van Nest Fighting Philbens (Jeff B)
32-1: (Rk 11) ATB 12 Helena Handbasket (Joe T)
35-1: (Rk 15) ATB 11 Planet 10 (Ivar A)
37-1: (Rk 13) ATB 14 R. Kuntz Traveling All Stars (Shotgnun)
38-1: (Rk 12) ATB 13 Newark Slam Dumps (Sean)
50-1: (Rk 14) ATB 14 Otherton Fishbiscuits (Brian B)
52-1: (Rk 16) ATB 15 Shamokin Miners (Mike M)
53-1: (Rk 17) ATB 9 County Wicklow Fighting Shillelaghs (TJ O)
70-1: (Rk 18) ATB 11 Rochester Beau Brummels (Leanne S)
81-1: (Rk 21) ATB 15 Wildlings of the Wall (Joe V)
94-1: (Rk 22) ATB 9 Saginaw Slammers (Jay S)
101-1: (Rk 23) ATB 7 Mendham Maulers (Andy M)
103-1: (Rk 20) ATB 9 New York Blues (Mike R)
136-1: (Rk 19) ATB 13 Willets Point "Mechanics"
140-1: (Rk 24) ATB 15 Leesburg Snowhole (Jay H)
165-1: (Rk 25) ATB 10 Cincinnati Venus Fly Traps (Kevin C)
167-1: (Rk 26) ATB 11 I Miss Rod Beck (Johnny K)
213-1: (Rk 28) ATB 11 Cincinnati Redlegs (Greg S)
214-1: (Rk 27) ATB 10 Absurdville Madness (Matty H)
254-1: (Rk 29) ATB 15 Colorado Green Sox (Gary G)
272-1: (Rk 30) ATB 15 Lancaster Pretty Ladies (Ted K)
403-1: (Rk 32) ATB 15 Niagara Frontier Blackbirds (Greg M)
423-1: (Rk 31) ATB 15 Downsouth Brews (Allen C)

Of course, Pythagorean doesn't tell the whole story, and may not even tell three quarters of the story.  For one, these team winning percentages were based on a 162 game season and in a short 7 game series with injuries turned off, teams with a great starting pitching have an edge.

For another, life way back in ATB VII was much different than life in ATB XV.  We've learned a ton, and the owner quality is currently as best as its ever been.  A .650 winning percentage 7 years ago is probably akin to a .590 winning percentage today.

And finally, as we all have grown to love (or loathe), a sample of 1 season means alot, but not as much as most would think.  Case in point my 104 win  Red Eagles from this past season turned out to be a 94-win team over the course of 20 resims.

Let the betting begin!

Rosters Added

Find your squad under the League Reports section to the right.

OA Tournament Brackets

For our Owners Appreciation Tournament there will be four main groups, each comprising of 8 teams.  The pre tourny rankings were determined by each team's W-L record, Run Differential, and rank in previous "all time great team" sims.  These aren't perfect and some people simply drew a bad seed, but, that is part of the fun, no?

Each 'round' will consist of a 7 game series, with the higher seed getting home field advantage.  Off days after games 2 and 5, just as in the MLB playoffs.

Alexander Cartwright Bracket
To come out of the Cartwright bracket you'll need to go through the DC Chips and 15 Brighton Shadows.  The Chips are the #1 ranked team overall thanks to the best modern day record and run differential in history, but finished behind the Brighton Shadows in the last ATG Sim.  Brighton was the 5th ranked team in that sim, two ahead of DC.

The other team to watch is the 9th ranked Van Nest Phighting Philbens who sported 98 wins and a +182 RD.  Their average showing in the ATG Sim puts them a slot below Brighton.

Ed Barrow Bracket
No one will like the seeding in the Ed Barrow Bracket.  The defacto best regular season team in ATB history, the Gold Country Gossamers, drew just the 5th seed thanks to winning 'only' 102 games with a unremarkable run differential.  This will make it quite difficult for the 4th seeded Bellevue Freakin Franchise to advance.

Other teams to watch are the Newark Slam Dumps and Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars, both well above average and dangerous.

Walter O'Malley Bracket
This is likely the toughest bracket, on paper at least.  The four best teams average a +177 Run Differential and just one of the eight teams were below .500 in their regular season.  The Manetheren Red Eagles, Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters, and Dyersville Blacksox are the favorites, but don't count out Planet 10.

Branch Rickey Bracket
This is the only bracket with two teams featuring RD's over 200 (Lusitania Death Speakers and John McDonald Fanclub).  Lusitania has a leg up and is ranked 3rd overall but John McDonald won 109 regular season games.

Helena Handbasket is another team to watch while the Otherton Fishbiscuits and their 8th ranking in the AGT competition, is sitting pretty at 14th in this tournament.

The full bracket is here and linked to the right.

Owner Appreciation Tournament

In the lull days between ATB seasons I was jonesing for some Diamond Mind Baseball.  After much thought I decided the best way scratch this baseball itch was with a tournament, one that put the spotlight on as many owners as possible.

I haven't tried this before, but I propose that every owner who's ever managed 2 or more ATB teams is eligible, as well as all participating owners from last season, even if it was their rookie campaign.  And wouldn't you know it, this works out to be a perfect 32 teams, which fits into a basic tournament bracket quite well.

This is purely for fun and requires no owner involvement, I have all the data required from past seasons.  However, if you have a desire to be hands-on and submit lineups, I have no objections.  If you aren't interested at all, no action is needed, you won't be hearing from my directly after this email.

All the data and results will be posted to the blog (in my signature), check there for updates. 

I will soon be posting the seeds and formal bracket.  The methodology for seeding will be a formula that takes into consideration Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, and Wins.

Hope you enjoy!