20 Resims: #9 - Puerto Cabellas Pandas

The best of the NL West are Brad P’s Puerto Cabellas Pandas.  Brad had an intriguing approach to the season, focusing on a strong relief corps both on draft day and through trades.  Four relievers (listed below) were each well above average and the 5th and 6th regulars (Ellis Kinder and Aroldis Chapman) combined for a 3.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  This was one of the best bullpens in the game.

They needed it too.  Playing home games in Fenway Park, lefty batters typically had a field day with the Panda’s rotation.  Only Babe Adams was close to average (4.27 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) with the balance of them struggling daily.  Noodles Hahn was their number 2 and he sported an ERA of 4.66; the rotation gradually declined from there until 5th starter Jared Weaver and his 5.56 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

Given their 10 division titles and Playoff Odds of 60%, they were doing many other things right.  The offense, led by Tip O’Neill and George Brett, was top 10 quality.  Secondary players such as Sam Thompson (35 doubles, 23 triples, 13 home runs), Babe Herman (40 doubles, 21 home runs), and Phil Cavarretta (see below) all contributed to a balanced lineup with a team slash line of .277 / .322 / .424.

What I find most interesting however, has nothing to do with the team in particular.  In the balanced resims the Pandas jumped to 85 wins and scanning the results, the NL had a clear advantage.  Each league averaged 81 wins in the normal 20 resims (of course), but in the balanced resims, the NL averaged 83 wins and the AL just 79.

How about the best division?  Here are the win averages by division in the balanced resims

84.0 – NL East (up from 79.8 in the normal resims)
83.5 – NL Central (up from 81.3)
82.5 – NL West (up from 82.0)
81.5 – AL Central (down from 83.8)
78.8 – AL East (down from 82.3)
75.8 – AL West (down from 77.0)

A clean sweep for the NL.  They were the better league.

800 OPS Batters: 
.854 – Tip O’Neill
.801 – George Brett

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.88 – Jonathan Papelbon
3.00 – Cla Meredith
3.12 – Steve Reed
3.24 – BJ Ryan

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 17 – Phil Cavaretta (.280 / .340 / .389, with 40 doubles)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 8 – Noodles Hahn (4.66 ERA, 1.38 WHIP for their #2 starter)

20 Resim Results

24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews

23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox

22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies

21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears
14) 81 wins, Niagara Frontier Blackbirds
13) 81 wins, Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
12) 80 wins, Shamokin Miners
11) 81 wins, Helena Handbasket
10) 83 wins, Carlisle "Mechanics"
9) 82 wins, Puerto Cabellas Pandas

NL Reliever of the Year

1) 72 Points-Sutter, B (BS) ----- (13, 2, 1 / 16 ballots)
2) 31 Points-Eckersley, D (OFB) -- (2, 6, 3 / 11 ballots)
3) 13 Points-Meredith, C (PCP) --- (1, 2, 2 / 5 ballots)
4) 12 Points-McGraw, T (DCC) ----- (1, 2, 1 / 4 ballots)
5) 11 Points-Gordon, T (LS) ------ (0, 3, 2 / 5 ballots)
6) 5 Points-Murphy, R (DCC) ------ (0, 1, 2 / 3 ballots)
7) 3 Points-Hall, D (OFB)  ------- (0, 1, 0 / 1 ballots)
8) 2 Points-Russell, F (SM) ------ (0, 0, 2 / 2 ballots)
9) 2 Points-Kuo, H-C (SPB) ------- (0, 0, 2 / 2 ballots)
10) 1 Points-Brewer, J (NVB) ----- (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)
11) 1 Points-Gregg, V (NVB) ------ (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)

Another no brainer, Sutter recorded 44 saves with a 1.83 ERA.  Eckersley was probably better but the classic stats (ERA, Sv, K) don't pop like Sutter's.

Time Almost Up for the "Mechanics" and Bears

With around 14 games remaining time is running out for the "Mechanics" and Bears.  Both teams are 4.5 games out and do not control their own destiny's.  No matter how well they play, the need the Wild Card leading Fishbiscuits and Wildlings to lose more than they win as well.

In the American League, the "Mechanics" have a legitimate chance at holding up their end of the bargain.  They have 12 games remaining, 9 of which are at home.  The face the Burnt Ends 4 times, the Red Lectroids 3, the Red Eagles 3, and Ball Four 2.  Only the Red Eagles have a winning record.  However, during the season, the "Mechanics" have exactly a .500 record against these squads.

The Bears on the other hand are in a true predicament.  8 of their remaining 13 games are on the road and they face the Miners 6 times, the Pandas 4, and the Pretty Ladies 3.  The Miners are heading to the playoffs and the Pandas are the hottest team in the league.  They've lost 13 of 16 against the Miners, but are well over .500 against the Pandas and Ladies.

Both teams should be considered extreme long shots, with Carlisle having a slightly better chance to catch up.

Power Alley - Week 11

+4 Puerto Cabellas Pandas
+3 Ball Four

-3 DC Chips
-4 Carlisle "Mechanics"

Standings Summary - Week 11

It's a case of too little too late.  The Puerto Cabellas Pandas were a pre-season favorite for the NL West title but instead of struggled to stay above .500 all season long.  With a 10-3 record this week, Brad has shown just how dangerous his team could have been.  The Pandas batted .301 / .340 / .341 as a team with Phil Caveretta (.380 / .415 / .480) and Tip O'Neill (.373 / .389 / .686) enjoying notable success.

Their bats helped Puerto Cabellas in sweeping both Helena and North Valley, and taking series from DC, Shamokin, and the Pretty Ladies.

Noodles Hahn and Babe Adams anchored the rotation, going undefeated in 5 starts with a combined 2.50 ERA.  The bullpen was key for the entire week however - Steve Reed, Steve Bedrosian, BJ Ryan, Ellis Kinder, and Jonathan Papelbon combined for 30.2 innings of 3-run ball.

It was a ho-hum week in the American League, with no single team catching fire to claim "Team of the Week" status.  Ball Four ended up with the best Run Differential (a quite good +29) so they get the honors.

Justin Duchscherer started two games and gave up just 1 run while a quartet in the pen shone above the rest.  All Grabowski and Kenley Jansen didn't give up a run in 10 innings and Mariano Rivera and Frankie Rodriguez allowed just 2 runs to score in 20 innings.

The offense powered the team on most nights, smacking 21 home runs in 15 games. Jim Edmonds had a 1.232 OPS thanks to 6 homers, scoring 16 in the process.  Heavy Johnson added 5 shots batting .387 / .433 / .629 in the process.  The team batted .294 / .358 / .460.

There were no major changes to the Wild Card race.  Both the Wildlings and Fishbiscuits have a 4.5 game lead with their magic numbers down to 9 games.

Elsewhere, the Red Eagles and Shadows clinched playoff births with the Hoplites on the brink, sporting a magic number of 1.  The Beaters, Fanclub, and Miners all have at least a 6-game lead for the divisional crowns and barring disaster will head to the playoffs as well.

If the playoffs ended today:
- Wildings @ Red Eagles
- Fanclub @ Hoplites

- Fishbiscuits @ Shadows
- Miners @ Beaters

Power Alley - Week 10

+4 Leesburg Snow Hole
+3 Manetheren Red Eagles
+3 Carlisle "Mechanics"
+3 Helena Handbasket

-4 Puerto Cabellas Pandas
-7 Rochester Beau Brummels

Week 9 Transactions

1) Blackbirds DL Bill Swift, add Don Sutton 1972
2) Green Sox drop Steve Sax, Add Dustin Pedroia 2008
3) Helena drop Lady Baldwin, add David Price 2012
4) Pandas drop Jake Peavy, PU Noodles Hahn 1904
5) Fishbiscuits DL Ezra Sutton, PU Ray Dandridge 1941
6) Blackbirds DL Van Mungo, add Stan Coveleski 1920
7) Green Sox drop Rawley Eastwick, Add Joe Magrane 1988
8) Helena Drop Rod Carew, add Jack Fournier 1925
9) Blackbirds DL Nels Potter, add Dan Wheeler 2009
10) Helena drop Ken Boyer, sign Eddie Yost 1959
11) Helena drop Miguel Montero, sign Johnny Bassler 1924
11) Helena drop Nellie Fox, sign Newt Allen 1929

Standings Summary - Week 8

The American League team of the week is once again the Sparta Hoplites.  I tried to make a case for the 11-4 Carlisle "Mechanics" but Sparta simply had a better week, outscoring their opponents by 43 runs (76 RF, 33 RA) wich more than doubled Carlisle's run differential.  

The Hoplites are firing on all cylinders.  Their offense was good in Week 8 (.272 / .352 / .406) but it was their pitching that made them team of the week.  Incredibly, just one pitcher - Jerry Reuss - had an ERA over 2.75 and his was well below the league average anyway.  It's worth a list:

0.00 ERA - Eric Gagne (9 IP)

0.00 ERA - Andrew Bailey (1 IP)

1.59 ERA - Bobby Jenks (5.2 IP, and finally gave up a run!)

1.64 ERA - Greg Maddux (22 IP)

1.80 ERA - Warren Hacker (25 IP)

2.14 ERA - Kevin Brown (21 IP)

2.25 ERA - Kevin Saucier (4 IP)

2.45 ERA - Steve Howe (7.1 IP)

2.74 ERA - Frank Sullivan (23 IP)

3.46 ERA - Jerry Reuss (13 IP)

There were four offensive stars this week as well.  Orator Shaffer hit .390 / .439 / .542, Chipper Jones had a .460 OBP, Rico Petrocelli smacked 5 home runs, and Edgar Martinez continued a quietly great season batting .339 / 397 / .464.

En route to their 11-3 record, the Hoplites swept the Green Sox, took 2 of 3 from the Fanclub, and 4 of 5 from the All Stars.  They also split a 2 game series with the Beau Brummels and had sole victory over the Brews.  Only once did they yield more than 4 runs.

Over in the National League, Spanish Harlem continued the torture on owner Justin P.  A great team despite being prone to extended winning and losing streaks, the Pinata Beaters opened up a 9 game lead on the division thanks to a stellar 12-2 sim.

The opened the week with a 7 game winning streak, sweeping the Bears and Panda's after concluding rubber match with the Biscuits with a victory.  After losing two in a row at the hands of the streaking Miners, they kicked off an in progress 5 game winning streak salvaging the last game against the Miners then taking two each from the Pretty Ladies and the Bears.

It's bad news for the league that the struggling Jesse Tannehill turned his season around this week.  In three starts he went undefeated, completing two games, and gave up just 11 hits in 25 innings.  John Tudor and Harvey Haddix were stellar too, combining to give up just 9 runs in 6 starts.

Oscar Charleston must be battling the flu as the star center fielder batting just .340 / .476 / .500.  Not too worry as the team's infielders filled the roles of superstar.  Cupid Childs batted .426 / .446 / .648, John Olerud led the team in RBI and Wade Boggs had a .932 OPS.

Wild Card Standings

Unsung Hero's of the Contenders

Great's like Oscar Charleston and Pedro Martinez are cornerstones of winning ball clubs but they can only get you so far.  A true contender needs successful role players as well, and here's some recognition to the little known hero's I spotted while perusing the league reports.

The definition of contenders was purposely kept strict to reduce the research (sorry!); the teams below are within 3 games of a Division or Wild Card Race

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Sparta Hoplites
Frank Sullivan, SP

On a staff with Greg Maddux and Kevin Brown, it's easy to forget the 3rd starter Frank Sullivan.  Drafted in the 16th round, Sullivan was hardly a critical player for owner Sean S but at the same time, as 3rd starter to begin the season Sullivan had an important role.  He's been great winning 8 of 13 with a 3.35 ERA.  Opponents have managed just 133 hits against him in 150 innings.

Manetheren Red Eagles
Norman Yokely, SP

Similar to Sullivan, Yokely was a mid round (16th) selection to be inserted into the back end of the rotation as 4th starter.  He's been much better than advertised, going 11-3 with a 3.42 RCERA (3.14 CERA).

John McDonald Fanclub
Ken Sanders, RP extraordinaire

Sanders has been used in multiple roles this season, and has settled in as the team's #1 Long Reliever and #1 setup man versus righties.  The 18th rounder has pitched in 96 innings, winning 8 of 10 with a 2.43 ERA.

Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
Carlos Pena, 1B

It's difficult to maintain a high batting average when playing home games in the Baker Bowl (90 park factor for singles) so Pena has been forced to become a bit more one dimensional than he may have been accustomed too (when in Rome right?).  The 14th rounder is second on the team in RBI (57) and third in home runs (26) holding down the cleanup spot in the All Star lineup.

Carlisle "Mechanics"
Robin Roberts, SP

Nice run by the "Mechanics", after their poor start I was surprised to seem them just 2.5 games out of the playoffs. Roberts is the teams 4th starter, an especially important role when considering their 5th starter, John Smoltz, is really a closer playing out of position.*  Roberts has been great - 8-5, 3.04 ERA - extreme value for a 21st round draft pick.

* Several teams have tried this during the year with mostly poor success.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Brighton Shadows
Darren Daulton, C

Despite being drafted in the 19th Round, Daulton was intended to the Shadows starting catcher - their backup, Johnny Kling, was drafted in the 24th.  Daulton has been one of the best catchers in the league with 21 HR's in 251 at bats, his OBP is respectable at .329 while he slugs almost as much as 2nd rounder Josh Gibson

Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
Ed Siever, SP

Who needs role players when you have Oscar Charleston.  In truth, it seems Justin P is getting exactly what he needs out of just about every player on his roster - no major surprises for good or ill.  We'll give credit to 10th rounder and 4th starter Siever, whose 13-6 with a 2.94 ERA.

Shamokin Miners
Tommy Holmes, OF

.301 / .340 / .543 with 21 HR in 322 AB.  That is one heck of a line for an 11th rounder and Holmes has to be wondering what left he has to prove to become a full time player.

North Valley Bears
Ed Reulbach, SP

The Bears are in a bit of a spiral, hopefully not so bad that it leaves them out of the playoffs.  One of the key's to their rebound will be 5th starter Ed Reulbach.  The righty has performed very well this year (6-2, 3.50 ERA, 103 IP, 86 H) and NL West teams should expect owner TJ O to either bump him up in the rotation or at least make him start every 5 days.

Puerto Cabellas Pandas
Phil Cavaretta, 1B

This is my kind of unsung hero.  17th round first basemen who fights his way to the top of the lineup thanks to a .385 on base average.  He's on pace for 90+ runs, 25 doubles, and 15 triples.

There are dozens of other players, some on these same very teams, that all have been drafted late and are performing better than expectations.  Here's to their success, and here's to 1998 Scott Brosius!

Tip O'Neill Goes Nuts in 8A

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

12 of 13, not bad...

Power Alley - Week 7

+4 Rochester Beau Brummels
+2 The Wall Wildlings
+2 Leesburg Snowhole

-2 Downsouth Brews
-3 Puerto Cabellas Pandas

Week 8 Transactions

1) NFB claim Manny Ramirez 2000, drop Dustin Pedroia
2) CGS PU Rheal Cormier 2003, drops Bill Lee
3) PCP PU Andy Van Slyke 1992, drop Jacoby Ellsbury
4) SM PU Mike Caldwell 1978, drops Noodles Hahn
5) JMF PU Frank WIlliams 1986, drops Wes Westrum
6) SPB picks up Swartwood 1883, drops Hoyt
7) SH picks up Bob O'Farrell 1922, DL's Fred Carrol
8) NFB activates Duke Snider, drops Jack Fournier
9) JMF PU Greg Minton 1979, drops Darrel Evans
10) SPB PU Brian Downing 1979, DL King Kelly

Power Alley Great 8 - Week 6

Power Alley - Week 6

+4 Puerto Cabellas Pandas
+3 John McDonald Fanclub
+3 Rochester Beau Brummels
+3 Downsouth Brews

-4 Platte County Burnt Ends
-3 North Valley Bears
-3 Colorado Green Sox
-3 Leesburg Snowhole

A Tale of 3 Teams in the NL West

With a record 25-9 On May 10th, the North Valley Bears had the best record in baseball.  They were in the midst of an 8 game win streak and had opened up an 8 game lead over the Shamokin Miners with a 6-4 victory over DC.

Over the following month, through June 6th to be exact, the Bears became the epitome of an average team, winning 13 of 26 with a run differential just a shade south of zero.  At the time, they still enjoyed a 6 game lead, weathering a run by Puerto Cabellas who had won 7 of 8.

Since June 7 the Bears have been outscored by 19 runs and have lost 12 of 17.  The lead on the division has become almost non-existent and they're suddenly in a tight race as the all-star break approaches.

What happened?

Since the second week in May the Bears have struggled on offense, mustering only a team OBP of .307 and ranking 19th in run scoring.  Regulars Johnny Mize, Mike Schmidt, Vlad Guerrero, Ryan Howard, and Red Schoendeinst have each had sub-.290 on base percentages, truly awful. Add to this the fact that first rounder  Willie Wells, .500 resims be damned, is an apparent bust batting .216 / .293 / .365 on the season, it takes little imagination to figure why this team has struggled.

Enter the Shamokin Miners.  Since June 5 the Miners have easily been the best team in baseball, winning 16 of 20 and outscoring their opponents 107-52, both figures tops in ATB.  While their offense has been solid,  their pitching is largely responsible for the .800 winning percentage and dominated the league.  Their team ERA is 2.37 and WHIP just 1.11, both tops in ATB as well. I don't know where to begin with the details, so lets list 'em all:

Miners ERA by Player
0.00 - Damaso Marte (4.1 IP)
0.00 - Jeff Russell (5.2 IP)
0.67 - Ray Prim (13.1 IP)
0.84 - Preacher Roe (10.2 IP)
1.50 - Fergie Jenkins (36 IP, 5-0)
2.35 - Jack Quinn (7.2 IP)
2.93 - Eddie Cicotte (30.2 IP)
3.03 - Jack Chesbro (35.2 IP)
3.72 - Scott Stratton (29.0 IP)
5.06 - Joe Sambito (5.1 IP)

Sambito is the scourge of the clubhouse, poor guy.

Similarly, the Panda's have had recent successes as well.  They kicked off an 8 game winning streak on May 5th, and ultimately won 10 of 12 before leveling off for a week.  Presently, they're enjoying a 4 game win streak to close the gap to 1.5 games and now have a percentage point lead over the Miners for the NL Wild Card. If you recall, just one team from each league is awarded a Wild Card birth.

After a slow start, both George Brett (.337 / .377 / .523 since May 5) and Tip O'Neill (.295 / .342 / .532) have turned it around while Babe Herman as had continued success, driving in 40 runners in 48 games.  Playing their home games in Fenway Park, the Panda starting pitching has struggled with a 5.30 ERA (5.67 since May 5) but the pen has been bolstered by the May 19th Wildling trade that brought in Jonathan Papelbon.  Their bullpen ERA is been 2.66 since the trade while the team has gone 23-13 with the best record in the NL.

It's too early to predict the outcome of the division though there are critical warning signs for North Valley.  Against their rivals they've won just 4 of 12 (1-7 vs the Miners).  Meanwhile, the Miners appear to be in the drivers seat having won 6 of 9 against the Pandas and 13 of 17 overall.

Regardless of who wins, it's great to see at least one division in a tight playoff race .

Power Alley - Week 5

+6 Shamokin Miners
+3 Helena Handbasket

-3 DC Chips
-3 Rochester Beau Brummels
-3 Planet 10 Red Lectroids
-4 Puerto Cabellas Pandas

Standings over Last 30 Days

Some great stats over last 30 days

• Oscar Charleston (Beaters) is batting .429 / .516 / .876
• Mark McGwire (Fanclub) has 21 HR and 40 RBI
• Turkey Stearnes (Red Eagles) has 19 doubles
• Babe Ruth (Green Sox) has a .459 OBP with .696 SLG
• Ross Barnes (Chips) is batting .365 / .455 / .565

• Cy Blanton (Wildlings) is 5-0 in 6 starts (rest of team is 8-15)
• Ken Sanders (Fanclub) has pitched in 17 games for a 0.99 ERA
• Joaqim Benoit ("Mechanics") is 8 for 8 in saves without giving up a run
• Teammates Hong-Chi Kuo and Paul Wilson (Beaters) have combined for 32 innings of relief without letting in a single run
• "It's Not My Fault" award - Fernando Rodney (Red Eagles) has sporty ERA of 2.18, but has let 7 of 10 inherited runners score.

• The Pandas have smacked 24 team triples (next best team has 14)
• The Red Eagles have smacked 88 team doubles (next best has 64)
• The Green Sox are scoring 5.8 runs per game (.474 team SLG)
• The Pandas have stolen 39 bases and have been caught just 9 times

• The Hoplites have a team 2.88 ERA and have yielded just 11 HR's (All Stars have yielded 50)
• The Beaters relief corp are allowing just 14% of inherited runners to score (Beau Brummels are allowing 48%)
• Fishbiscuit pitchers have a .225 balls in play average (Brews pitchers have .332)

• Fanclub catchers  have thrown out just 17 of 90 base stealers (81 % success rate); Miners have gunned down 38 of 85 (55% success rate)
• The Wildlings have 29 team errors (Fanclub 56) 

All Star Races - Righty Setup

American League

National League

All Star Races - Long Relievers

 American League

National League

All Star Races - #3 Starters

American League
Not sure where to go here.  The great ERA guys like Robin Roberts ("Mechanics") and Paul Deringer (who?, Fanclub) have the worst RCERA's; while the better RCERA performers lag in ERA.  Maybe Garland Braxton (Red Eagles) has an edge because of his 6-2 record?

National League
If I had to choose right now I would go with Jack Chesbro (Miners).  He has the best ERA of the five, is tied for the most wins, and easily has the most innings pitched.  Ed Reulbach (Bears) looks great though, and this will come down to the next few starts.