The Playoff Race

Isn't exactly edge of your seat stuff.  In what's shaping to be the most boring ATB XV regular season in recent memory, it also promises to be the most exciting post-seasons in recent memory.

With the close of Sim 10A only one division crown was (nominally) up for grabs - the AL West.  Across the remaining 5 divisions the average division lead  was almost 13 1/2 games, with 4 and possibly 5 teams accelerating towards 100 win seasons.

The Sparta Hoplites and Manetheren Red Eagles are on pace for 104 and 103 win seasons respectively.  Over in the senior circuit, the Birghton Shadows are on pace for 101 wins while the Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters and Shamokin Miners are on pace for 97 and 93 wins, respectively.  Since the All-Star break the two best teams in ATB are the Beaters and Miners, so it stands to reason they have legitimate shots and 100 wins.  The Miners have won 30 of 43, a historic type of run.

Here are the # of 100 win seasons since records started being kept in ATB 6:

0 - ATB 6
1 - ATB 7
0 - ATB 8
1 - ATB 9
1 - ATB 10
3 - ATB 11*
2 - ATB 12
1 - ATB 13
1 - ATB 14

*What a great year this was.  Bellevue Freakin' Franchise won 106 games with a +238 run differential and took home the title.  John McDonald Fanclub won 109 games, but were swept in the opening round.  And the Windy City Potato Pickers won 111 games but they two were swept in the first round.

Anything can happen in the playoffs and the Wild Card Contenders (The Wall, Rusty Kuntz, Carlisle, Otherton, and North Valley) will certainly take umbrage with it, but the thought of four 100-win teams facing off in League Championship Series would be memorable to say the least.

If the regular season ended today we'd have:

American League
#3 John McDonald Fanclub @ #1 Sparta Hoplites
#4 Wildlings of the Wall @ #2 Manetheren Red Eagles
(Note, TWW cannot play SH because they are in the same division)

National League
#4 Otherton Fishbiscuits @ #1 Brighton Shadows
#3 Shamokin Miners @ #2 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters

The Harry Caray league is all set. Despite losing three in a row Planet 10 clinches a Wild Card playoff birth, narrowly edging out Edinburgh. With an 85-76 record, Edinburgh at best could finish with 86 wins and are officially eliminated.

This leaves the playoff series as follows:

Planet 10 (#4) vs. Windy City (#1)
La Chapelle (#3) vs. Bellevue (#2)

The last Wild Card slot in Vin Scully remains up for grabs, coming down to perhaps the last game of the season:

0.0 - Helena (88-72)
1.0 - Rochester (87-73)
1.5 - DC (87-74)

The top two teams make the playoffs, leaving DC currently on the outside looking in by the thinnest of margins.

DC has just one game remaining and realistically require a win to have a shot. If victorious against Addie Joss (10-9, 3.05) and the Black Sox they will have to watch from home as Helena and Rochester close out the season. Here are the remaining pitching match-ups


Two notes on these.

1) Ed Walsh is gets the start for Rochester because their #1 starter Sandy Koufax is out for the season with an arm injury.

2) Helena's remaining two games are against John McDonald, a team they have just a 3-6 record against this season.

Finally, the Vin Scully divisional leaders have assured themselves a playoff birth. John McDonald clinched the #1 seed and will play the Wild Card team with the worst record.

A Shout Out To Rob Murphy

Each Week, Rob Murphy (BFF) narrowly misses the cut from showing up on the Great, The Good, and The Ugly reporting. Rightly or wrongly, each week, I pick out 4 starters, 2 closers, and the next best pitcher unlisted.

As a result, Murphy is routinely compared to Derek Lilliquist (WPP) and comes up a bit short in my mind. Lilliquist is on my team of course, so in fairness I feel it my responsibility (multiple emails from Brad have NO bearing on this post of course) to list the two side by side in case I am the fool, and Murphy is indeed being slighted. Here are their stats:


Looking at them, I think it always came down to the fact Murphy has the same number of walks and K's, though, Lilliquist's K/BB ration is not exactly stellar.

July Players of the Month

In a landslide, Willie Stargell of the Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars is named the July ATB Batter of the Month. Among qualifying batters, Stargell nearly doubled the 2nd best RC/27 score - 25.0 to 14.1. The rest of line speaks to why: .433 / .506 / 1.000, 1.506 OPS, 9 2B, 9 HR, 19 R, 30 RBI.




A reliever? You bet. Bellevue Freakin Franchise's lefty long reliever was unhittable in July, yielding just 14 hits in 26 innings pitch. His ERA was a minuscule 0.69. He also had a 1.34 RCERA and held opposing batters to a .425 OPS.

Predicting the Future Based Upon Strength of Schedule

Late in each ATB Season I try and break out the calculator and make some educated predictions about the balance of the season in hopes of finding the favorites for the Divisional and Wild Card Races. This year, the closest divisional race comes courtesy of the It Gets Thru Buckner division, but here the White Meadow Lake Black Stones trail the Helena Handbasket's by 6.5 games. The race is certainly not over, but by no means seriously in doubt.

The other Division races are even less exciting with John McDonald leading Behind the Bag by 9, the Windy City Potato Pocketers winning by 10.5, and the Belleveu Freakin Franchise by an almost unbelievable 19 games.

Our focus today will be on the Wild Card races. But first, a few notes on how I went about the calculation - ATB regulars can skip the next two paragraphs as nothing written hasn't been said at least twice already throughout our previous campaigns.

Bill James once derived a formula to predict the outcome of a game between two teams, based solely on their winning percentage. I took this a bit further, incorrectly in all honesty, and applied it to winning percentages of a team versus the collective winning percentages of all opponents left on the schedule. Even further, I use Pythagorean Winning Percentage instead of straight winning percentage.

Step through the charts below in a left to right fashion:

• Teams Actual Record
• Pythagorean Winning Percentage of that Team to Date
• Remaining Opponents Pythagorean Winning Percentage
• Expected Outcome of those games expressed in winning percentage terms. For instance, JMF is playing .640 ball, has to face teams with a collective .485 Wpct the rest of the way, and we should therefore expect them to win .654 % of their contests.
• Quick and Dirty Home/Away modifier, meant to adjust the Wpct up or down based upon the number of Home/Away games.
  
• Games Left
• Projected W-L record of those remaining Games
• Projected Win Total
• Projected Games Back
  

Vin Scully League

Today, 10 of the 12 teams in this league have a legitimate shot at contending for a playoff spot. In terms of the Wild Card, the 10th team is just 5.5 games out of the last slot and 6 teams are within 3 games.

Strength of schedule shows this isn't going to last:

• The top teams remain where they stand with John McDonald and Helena winning their divisions by 7 and 5 games respectively.
  
• The Rochester Beau Brummels project to finish as the second best team in the league, a full 9 games up in the Wild Card
• If play ended today, the Black Stones would narrowly edge the DC Chips for the last playoff spot thanks to a .522 vs .521 winning percentage. However, the Home/Away schedule for DC gives them the edge closing out the year. Both teams have nearly identical expected winning percentages but DC has 27 home and 18 road games remaining, while White Meadow Lake has 23 home and 26 road. This difference results in a predicted 2 game advantage for the reigning champs. These two teams still have 4 head to head games remaining with the Black Stones winning 5 of 8 so far this year.
• Bucky Dent's Middle Name, currently a half game back of White Meadow Lake, looks to be in the thick of the race as well, projecting to fall short by just two games. With an expected winning percentage of .510 but more road games than home games, they look to finish the season with a run of .500 ball.
• The rest of the teams all fall of the pace quickly. The Chi Town Black Sox have lost 8 in a row and project to play about .500 rest of the way, and with their current record 6 games under .500 they'll likely fall short of contention.
  
• Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars have played well of late, but face teams with a collective .511 winning percentage.
• I Miss Rod Beck will have a tough go of it as well. They are currently being outscored by 17 runs and are expected to win 21 of their last 45 games, coming up 6 games short.
  

Harry Caray League


I won't spend much time on the less exciting Vin Scully League. Three teams project to easily outpace the pack, with the only playoff spot in doubt coming down to the last Wild Card team. The Edinburgh Caber Tossers have a much easier strength of schedule when compared with Planet 10: .486 vs .536. And while Planet 10 has a better run differential, they still project to lose one game on Edignburgh, finishing 2 out. Both teams have 26 home and 19 road games left.

If interested, here is the team by team look at the remaining schedule.

Power Alley - Week 7

Top 5
Plenty of churn within the Top-5, but only Planet 10 dropped out. With a 6-8 week Planet loses 1 slot in the standings to 6th overall, leaving the door open for the Rochester Beau Brummels to make their first appearance. Rochester had a great week, winning 8 of 12, thanks in large part to Weeler Keeler and his 13 RBI.

Elsewhere, the La Chapelle-aux-Saints Neanderthals, despite an 8-5 week, drop two slots to 4th, while the Bellevue Frekin Franchise (7-3) and John McDonald Fanclub (8-3) took possession of 2nd and 3rd. The Windy City Potato Pickers (9-4) maintained their 1st overall status for the 7th week standing.

Most Improved
+3: Edinburgh Caber Tossers - Despite playing .500 for the Sim, Edinburgh jumps 3 slots because of their solid +16 Run Differential. They scored more runs than any team during Sim 7, compiling a team slash line of .317 / .369 / .465. They led both leagues with 19 home runs.

Most Declined
-3: DC Chips - A disheartening week to say the least. The Chips, 2-10 during the Sim, not only dropped 3 slots in the Power Alley standings, they are also now on the outside looking in for the last Wild Card playoff spot. They hit just 4 home runs in 12 games while starter Bucky Walters came back down to earth with an 0-2 record and 10.57 ERA. His ERA jumped from 3.31 to 3.80

Freakin' Bellevue Freakin' Franchise

(Submitted by Duke Street Owner Jeff B)

DUKE STREET, MINNESOTA (AP) -- From June 6 (the day after the Bullpen Massacre of 2009) until the All-Star Break, the Duke Street Kings went 18-6, including a 7 game winning streak that began on 6/28. A dismal 24-33 start left them outside the potential playoff field at the break, but that hot streak took them out of the cellar into second place, and above .500 for the first time since early April.

But they barely made a dent in the Games Back column, as the team they trailed, Bellevue Freakin' Franchise, posted a 16-11 record over the same stretch. So when the teams met to kick off the Kings' second half, it was a welcome chance to pick up 2 games against their bitter rivals.

Alas, the All-Star break proved to be a momentum-killer. With a chance to run the winning streak to 8, a 2 run lead evaporated in the 8th inning of Game 82, leading to a heartbreaking 5-4, 11-inning defeat. The second game wasn't as close, as a 7-run first inning - starter Rich Harden managed to record only 1 measly out - put the King's in an insurmountable hole.

The division deficit now sits at 10.5, not 8.5, with the wild card 10 games away.

There's still plenty of baseball left, including 9 games against freakin' Freakin' Franchise. But one can't help but wonder if the Kings are the victims of regicide, and if there's anything beleaguered manager Jeff Burns can do to shake things up again.

Starting Lineup for ATB XI All Star Game Announced

With the All Star Game approaching in Sim 7 it's time to announce the ATB XI All Star Lineups for the Harry Caray and Vin Scully Leagues. Pitching Rotations and Bench to be announced in the coming days.

Harry Caray Lineup and Stats
1 - DH) Ty Cobb*, WPP
2 - 1B) George Sisler*, DSK
3 - LF) Tip O'Neill, ECT
4 - CF) Mickey Mantle#, DSK
5 - C) Josh Gibson, JuP
6 - RF) Steve Evans*, WPP
7 - 3B) Al Rosen, CR
8 - 2B) Nap Lajoie, BFF
9 - SS) Hughie Jennings, BFF


Vin Scully Lineup and Stats
1 - 3B) John McGraw*, RBB
2 - CF) Sam Jethroe#, RBB
3 - DH) Babe Ruth*, RBB
4 - LF) Barry Bonds*, RKA
5 - 1B) Albert Pujols, HH
6 - RF) Al Kaline, JMF
7 - 2B) Rogers Hornsby, BDM
8 - SS) Honus Wagner, JMF
9 - C) King Kelly, CBS

Power Alley - Week 4

Top 5
Two changes to the Top-5 this week. I Miss Rod Beck drops 3 slots to #6 and Helena Handbasket drops 5 slots to #10. This made room for two new teams - John McDonald Fanclub and La Chappelle-aux-Saints Neanderthals.

Movers and Shakers

• +6 - Edinburgh Caber Tossers. At 10-3 in Week 4, the Caber Tossers cracked the magical .500 Wpct barrier for the first time all season. They have been victorious 9 of their last 10 games and outscored their opponents 84-64. Their best batter, Tip O'Neill, was named Sim 4 player of the Week while their pitching staff was led by Whitey Ford who made two starts, winning both with a 2.93 ERA.
  
• +6 - White Meadow Lake Black Stones. Another 10-3 team, the Black Stones broke out on offense, batting .310 / .375 / .455 and were third in scoring during the Sim. First Basemen Jason Giambi drove in 18 on 5 HR and compiled a .407 on-base percentage.
  

Losers and Fakers

• -6 - Willets Point "Mechanics". Tough week for Willets Point. Heading into Sim 4, the "Mechanics were 24-22 and potentially on the cusp of contention. A sim later, they are 8 games out with a -52 run differential, though still in second place. Who's to blame? While their pitching wasn't too bad(4.00 ERA) their batting was awful. With team slash line of .243 / .307 / .356 they scored 3.7 runs per game, a far cry from the league leading Caber Tossers at 6.5.
  
• -6 - Wedge Tornado. With an awful 2-12 sim record, and an even worse -44 run differential, Tornado has a .356 winning percentage and is on pace to lose 102 games. In Week 4, five regulars batted under .200 (Hack Wilson, Don Baylor, Mike Schmidt, Ryne Sandberg, and Ivan Rodriguez.
  
• -5 - Helena Handbasket. All looked great for Helena coming into Sim 4. At 27-16, on a 6 game winnings streak, and having closed the gap with I Miss Rod Beck to just 1 1/2 games, Helena had a great opportunity to take the division lead. Instead, with a 4-9 record they lost a game in the standings to Rod Beck and the third place team, Bucky Dents Middle Name, gained 4 1/2 games. The culprits? Out of the pen Robb Nen, Earl Hamilton, Joel Hoerner, and Todd Frohwirth combined for a 8.18 ERA. On offense, Jackie Robinson, Lefty O'Doul, and Cal Ripken had OPS scores of .550 or worse.
  

Pitcher of the Week - Toad Ramsey

Our Sim 3 Pitching Player of the week is Toad Ramsey of the Bellevue Freakin Franchise. Ramsey made three starts, only giving up earned runs in 1 of them:

5/6 - 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, No Decision
5/11 - 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, Win
5/16 - 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 9 K, Win

Mize the First to Hit 3 HR in a Game

On May 9, Johnny Mize of the Bellevue Freakin Franchise, was the first man to smack 3 HR in a game this season. It was an all around impressive game for "The Big Cat":

• In the first, he hit a 2 run single to give his team the lead
• In the third, he hit is first home run - a solo shot to deep left that knocked starting pitcher Jack Taylor out of the game.
• In the fifth, an inning after Willets Point closed the lead to two, Mize pulled a 2-run homer down the right field line
• Finally, after his team blew the lead, the large first basemen hit a 3-run walk off home run off of famed reliever Dennis Eckersley.

The Curious Case of Hughie Jennings

Hughie Jennings, the lead-off batter and starting shortstop for the Bellevue Freakin' Franchise, is a slap hitting non walking albatross of a ball player. Or you might think if you haven't been lucky enough to see him play.

Take his April 11th game as the typical example of what he brings to the table:

• In the first, he struck out.
• In the second his singled. Stole Second. Scored on a ground ball that made its way to the outfield.
• In the fourth, he laid down a beautiful sac bunt that led to a run being scored.
• In the 5th, he was hit by a pitch, and scored from first on a double
  
• In the 7th, he grounded out to third
• In the 8th, he was hit by another pitch, and later scored

Add it up? 1-3, with a slap hit single, but three runs scored, a stolen base, 2 hit by pitch, and a key sacrifice bunt.

To date, Jennings is batting .285 with no power and 2 walks. Yet, in 32 games he already has 25 runs scored, 16 stolen bases, and a .385 on base percentage? How does a player who doesn't walk and have a league average batting average, manage to get on base at 38.5% clip? He's been hit by a pitch 20 times, and is on pace for 125 runs scored and an incredible 100 hit by pitches.

And before your cry foul - in 130 real life games Jennings recorded 51 real life beanings. But perhaps his 4 HBP performance on May 7, the Great Individual Feat that sparked the idea of this article, is a bit much to take.

Reed Out as Freakin Franchise Closer

With a record of 17-11 and in first place, conventional wisdom would hold most teams in place and prevent managers from making drastic moves. Not so in Bellevue. The Freakin' Franchise announced today the closer Steve Reed is moving to backup long relief and back up setup man roles. Reed has blown a few saves already this year, but his line is solid: 12.7 IP, 10 H, 9 K.

Taking over for Reed is Armando Benitez who has been spectacular - 9.7 IP, 7 H, 14 K, 0.93 ERA - but a bit lucky. His RCERA is really 3.06 mostly due to the 6 walks given up.

Last season Benetiz had a 3.08 ERA in 50 IP and Reed was the top reliever iun the game according to RSAA - 1.34 ERA in 80 IP.

A Pictoral Tale of Two Teams

Bellevue Freakin' Franchise leads the league with 86 Runs Scored. Planet 10 is last in the league with 46. Here are their team hitting charts on the year.