Negro League Overview - Starters

This is an ongoing multi-part series on the new ATB Negro Leaguers that will be available in our next draft.  See here for the other parts.

By my estimation 16 or so starting pitchers are good enough to receive regular playing time.  Taking a generalist view that assumes ERA is the best measure of pitcher quality, and that owners draft in the order of ERA, we can estimate where in the rotation a pitcher belongs.  For example, in a 24 team league the starting pitchers with the best 24 ERA’s would all be considered #1 starters, pitchers with the 25th-48th best ERA’s would be #2 starters, and so on.

With this approach, the Negro League player set will add eight spot starters/long relievers, four #3, 4, and 5 starters, and four #1 and 2 starters.

Spot Starters

Of the spot starters and long relievers only Satchel Paige warrants some press.  Paige’s success simply didn’t translate to ATB and while he appears to be a decent pitcher by ATB XIV standards (4.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) this works out to be just the 144th best in the 500-resims.  There is good news for Paige fans though.  In 1940 he only qualified as a reliever and he performed quite well thanks to a 1.14 WHIP and 3.50 ERA.

#3, #4, #5 Starters

Arthur Henderson is the best of the #3, #4, and #5 starters.  There isn’t a perfect comp, but 1905 Ed Reulbach is close enough for our purposes.

#1, #2 Starters

One of the most skilled Negro League pitchers of all time was Nip Winters.  A southpaw with a mighty fastball, Winters went 18-4 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the 1922-1923 seasons.  He recorded several other very good seasons but alcoholism and a perceived lack of trying helped shorten his career.  He retired at the age of 33 with a lifetime winning percentage of .678.

In the 500-resims Winters ranks an indisputable  although distant, 3rd behind only Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux.  He put up a 3.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 212 innings per season.

Yesterday we saw how great of a reliever Red Ryan is, and it turns out he’s a pretty good starter too.  His 1923-1924 season looks a lot like 1946 Tex Hughson.

100 Sim Results - Pitcher Conistency

10 days ago I posted about the great inconsistencies among batters. Today, in a similar vein, we focus on a just few of the more interesting pitchers.

By far, the least consistent pitcher in the sim was 1933 Carl Hubbell. When things were going well, Hubbell pitched fine turning in a sub-4.00 ERA 16 times. However, and this was more often the case, when things were off for the southpaw he was very erratic with an era over 5.50 fifteen times. Here's his "Min, Average, Max" key stat lines.


The most consistent pitcher was 1885 Lady Baldwin. Given that his best season is very close to that of Pedro Martinez's best, and the fact he is most consistent, make him the best pick overall? Baldwin had 36 seasons with an ERA under 3.00 and just four (!) with an ERA over four. Pedro was better with only 1 season over four, but that is by no means a dramatic victory for late 1990's star.

However, it's clear by these two stat lines there is a major difference between the two. In terms of ERA their best and worst seasons overall (by RCERA) are similar but it's a much different story for those seasons in between.

First the Max, Min, Average. As you can plainly see the Average state line is more than 1/2 a run better for Martinez.


Further, categorizing into buckets of success we can see Martinz is routinely throwing seasons with an RCERA under 3.00 (87 of 100). Baldwin, while great, tossed just 13 seasons with an RCERA in this range.

100 Sim Results - #1 Starting Pitchers

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for all of the batters, here is the link to the review section of the blog and another for the full detail for each position.

And finally what we’ve all been waiting for – the #1 starters in the game. 2000 Pedro Martinez is on par with Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth, perhaps a rung above them since he stands alone at his position. His ERA was 2.53, over ½ a run better Lady Baldwin’s. His WHIP was 0.99, no other starter had a score below 1.18 let alone in the 1.0’s. He also struck out 215 against just 47 walks.

1995 Greg Maddux is the second best of the pre-draft ace’s, and somewhat shockingly, a very slight peg below Lady Baldwin. Comparing the two:

Baldwin – 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 189 IP, 25 BB, 230 K
Maddux -– 3.11 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 196 IP, 40 BB, 115 K

Baldwin had a slightly better infield and a slightly better throwing catcher behind him, but even if the WHIP and ERA are a virtual tie, he gets the nod for his incredible 10.9 K/9. Maddux’s is only 5.3.

Other notables include 1913 Walter Johnson, 2004 Randy Johnson, 1996 Kevin Brown, and 1915 Petey Alexander.

The final Top 20 Starting Pitchers, regardless of draft position:

01) 210 IP, 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP-Pedro Martinez-2000
02) 189 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Lady Baldwin-1885
03) 196 IP, 3.11 ERA, 1.20 WHIP-Greg Maddux-1995
04) 189 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP-Pete Conway-1888
05) 188 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP-Ben Sanders-1888
06) 186 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP-Walter Johnson-1913
07) 180 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP-Cannonball Titcomb-1888
08) 175 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP-Scott Stratton-1890
09) 182 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP-Randy Johnson-2004
10) 182 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP-Al Orth-1901
11) 179 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP-Babe Adams-1919
12) 189 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP-Addie Joss-1908
13) 187 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP-Garland Braxton-1928
14) 190 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP-Bill Bernhard-1902
15) 174 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP-Jesse Tannehill-1902
16) 182 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.31 WHIP-Russ Ford-1910
17) 180 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP-Dizzy Dean-1934
18) 174 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP-Tex Hughson-1946
19) 178 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.34 WHIP-Kevin Brown-1996
20) 185 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.38 WHIP-Pete Alexander-1915

100 Sim Results - #2 Starting Pitchers

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for all of the batters, here is the link to the review section of the blog and another for the full detail for each position.

Our number two starters are unfortunately in a similar vein as our #3. Together, they averaged a 4.29 ERA, worse thatn the 5's and 4's, and on par with the 3's. It isn't all bad though, amongst the pitchers we've reviewed 1908 Addie Joss ranks 8th. He averaged a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 29 starts per year.

Behind Joss is 1946 Hal Newhouser (3.96, 1.48) and 1942 Mort Cooper (3.93, 1.34). It is also official - 3-Finger Brown was not meant for ATB. He recorded a 4.66 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Finally, I must admit I am very disappointed. I wonder how many good pitchers I missed because they weren't on my draft board. Obviously, outside the elite, my formula was flawed.

01) 189 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP-Addie Joss-1908
02) 176 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.48 WHIP-Hal Newhouser-1946
03) 180 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP-Mort Cooper-1942
04) 184 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP-Juan Marichal-1966
05) 179 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.4 WHIP-Monty Stratton-1937
06) 171 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP-Jason Schmidt-2003
07) 170 IP, 4.28 ERA, 1.4 WHIP-Ed Walsh-1910
08) 177 IP, 4.08 ERA, 1.4 WHIP-Bret Saberhagen-1989
09) 179 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP-Dazzy Vance-1924
10) 168 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.47 WHIP-Rube Waddell-1902
11) 168 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.53 WHIP-Tom Seaver-1971
12) 166 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.51 WHIP-Mordecai Brown-1906
13) 171 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.53 WHIP-Luis Tiant-1968
14) 173 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.43 WHIP-Silver King-1888
15) 159 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.56 WHIP-Satchel Paige-1931

100 Sim Results - #3 Starting Pitchers

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for all of the batters, here is the link to the review section of the blog and another for the full detail for each position.

I am not going to spend much time on the #3’s. Obviously, my formula is terrible. Let’s recap. Pitchers too low on my draft board have averaged a 3.79 ERA. My #4 starters a 4.14 ERA, and now my #3 starters a 4.32.

The best of the 3’s is one of 1948 Harry Brecheen, 1999 Kevin Milwood, or 2009 Zack Greinke.

01) 177 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.41 WHIP-Harry Brecheen-1948
02) 174 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Kevin Millwood-1999
03) 179 IP, 3.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP-Zack Greinke-2009
04) 169 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.57 WHIP-Charlie Sweeney-1884
05) 174 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP-John Tudor-1985
06) 179 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP-Curt Schilling-2002
07) 166 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP-Mike Scott-1986
08) 172 IP, 4.36 ERA, 1.46 WHIP-Ben Sheets-2004
09) 178 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP-Ed Reulbach-1905
10) 167 IP, 4.36 ERA, 1.54 WHIP-Vida Blue-1971
11) 170 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP-Spud Chandler-1943
12) 166 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP-Lefty Gomez-1937
13) 161 IP, 4.79 ERA, 1.64 WHIP-Rich Harden-2008
14) 164 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP-Charley Radbourn-1884
15) 161 IP, 4.71 ERA, 1.53 WHIP-Carl Hubbell-1933

The best at each position
S3 - 177 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.41 WHIP-Harry Brecheen-1948
S4 - 187 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP-Garland Braxton-1928
S5 - 189 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Lady Baldwin-1885
LR - 44 IP,, 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Fergie Jenkins-1970
SU - 153 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP-Joe Neale-1890
CL - 72 IP,, 2.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Jonathan Papelbon-2006

100 Sim Results - #4 Starting Pitchers

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for all of the batters, here is the link to the review section of the blog and another for the full detail for each position.

After reviewing the #5 starters earlier, today’s results for #4 starters will undoubtedly be a let down – they simply aren’t as skilled as the #5’s. (You may recall the #5’s where chosen manually by me instead of by rote formula).

The best of the 4’s was either 1928 Garland Braxton or 1902 Bill Bernhard. Braxton had the better ERA and the luxury of three “Ex” outfielders behind him while Bernhard had the better WHIP and a better infield defense. Either way, one can expect about a 3.60 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

1910 Russ Ford and 2002 Derek Lowe make up the next tier of starter, with ERA’s around 3.75 and WHIPs in the low to mid-1.30s. Careful though, both these pitchers had a multitude of ‘Ex’ defenders in both the infield and outfield to aide in their statistical lines.

There were no surprises in the balance of the 4th starters. 1939 Ted Lyons, 1912 Joe Wood, 2009 Chris Carpenter, 1994 David Cone, 1952 Warrant Hacker, 1923 Dolf Luque, 1898 Kid Nichols, and 1964 Joel Horlen were all decent options.

In terms of disappointments, you never want to see pitchers with ERA’s in the 4.70s or worse, but it isn’t unexpected to see 1955 Billy Pierce, 1972 Steve Carlton, and 1917 Eddie Cicotte struggle.

01) 187 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP-Garland Braxton-1928
02) 190 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP-Bill Bernhard-1902
03) 182 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.31 WHIP-Russ Ford-1910
04) 184 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Derek Lowe-2002
05) 186 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Ted Lyons-1939
06) 177 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.38 WHIP-Joe Wood-1912
07) 170 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP-Chris Carpenter-2009
08) 169 IP, 4.08 ERA, 1.4 WHIP-David Cone-1994
09) 178 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP-Warren Hacker-1952
10) 172 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.48 WHIP-Dolf Luque-1923
11) 181 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP-Kid Nichols-1898
12) 172 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP-Joe Horlen-1964
13) 163 IP, 4.93 ERA, 1.53 WHIP-Billy Pierce-1955
14) 166 IP, 4.69 ERA, 1.57 WHIP-Steve Carlton-1972
15) 161 IP, 4.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP-Eddie Cicotte-1917

The best at each position:
S4 - 187 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP-Garland Braxton-1928
S5 - 189 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Lady Baldwin-1885
LR - 44 IP,, 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Fergie Jenkins-1970
SU - 153 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP-Joe Neale-1890
CL - 72 IP,, 2.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Jonathan Papelbon-2006

100 Sim Results - #5 Starting Pitchers

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for all of the batters, here is the link to the review section of the blog and another for the full detail for each position.

As mentioned in the first post opening up the results for pitchers, I decided to unveil starter results in 5 phases, one for each slot in the rotation. The rotation slots were determined by my original real life rankings. However, I manually overrode many of the pitchers for the 5th slot, replacing them with key starters owners have drafted over the years. For instance, Lady Baldwin shouldn’t do well in ATB according to my rankings, and was outside of the Top 45 starters heading into the resims. I manually made him a #5 to see how he did.

Speaking of which, 1885 Lady Baldwin comes in as the best 5th starter in the simulation. In truth, Baldwin is likely the #2 or #3 overall starter, clearly behind Pedro Martinez but very close to Greg Maddux. Baldwin averaged 12 wins with a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 189 IP, 177 H, 45 BB, 230 K.

Behind Baldwin is, amazingly, 1888 Pete Conway, 1888 Ben Sanders, and 1888 Cannonball Titomb. Hmm, something doesn’t sit well with that does it? I double checked all the DMB input and there are no errors, but DMB sure does love 1888 for pitchers. Anyway, the trio each had ERA’s around 3.50 with Conway leading in WHIP and Titcomb in strikeouts.

Seven others had ERA’s under 4.00 and of the Top 11, only two came from 1920 or later. This is not to say players from future generations did worse, rather, it depicts how the 1800s and early 1900s players do not show up on our draft boards as great pitchers. I am sure there are at least a dozen other viable starters from this time period we just haven’t encountered yet.

As an aside, interestingly, the ERA’s we’ve seen in the sim averages are much better than the ERA’s we encounter in our actual ATB seasons. As far as I can tell, this is entirely due to my methodology of making defense a key factor in the draft rankings. In my draft, I sacrificed offense for some defense, and the result has been weaker batting and better pitching almost across the entire board.

Still, another theory I can’t corroborate without a lot of additional work is that a 15 team league is not as pitching diluted as a 20+ team league. I would suspect the more players we add to a league, the pitchers decline is skill at the same rate as the batters and it would even out in the end, but maybe not.

Either way, I am confident in the rankings of each pitcher, if not the actual resulting ERA’s – those may not translate to ATB XIII.



01) 189 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Lady Baldwin-1885
02) 189 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP-Pete Conway-1888
03) 188 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP-Ben Sanders-1888
04) 180 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP-Cannonball Titcomb-1888
05) 175 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP-Scott Stratton-1890
06) 182 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP-Al Orth-1901
07) 179 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP-Babe Adams-1919
08) 174 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP-Jesse Tannehill-1902
09) 180 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP-Dizzy Dean-1934
10) 174 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP-Tex Hughson-1946
11) 177 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.39 WHIP-Jack Chesbro-1904
12) 165 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.52 WHIP-Tim Lincecum-2009
13) 165 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP-Johnny Podres-1957
14) 169 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.37 WHIP-Noodles Hahn-1904
15) 157 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP-Andy Pettitte-2005

Best by Position
LR - 44 IP,, 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Fergie Jenkins-1970
SU - 153 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP-Joe Neale-1890
CL - 72 IP,, 2.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Jonathan Papelbon-2006
S5 - 189 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Lady Baldwin-1885

100 Baseline Resims - The Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers
2.2 - SP 1 - Pedro Martinez-2000
1.9 - SP 1 - Greg Maddux-1995
1.8 - SP 1 - Walter Johnson-1913
1.7 - SP 1 - Dutch Leonard-1914
1.6 - SP 1 - Bob Gibson-1968
1.6 - SP 1 - Randy Johnson-2004
1.6 - SP 1 - Johan Santana-2004
1.6 - SP 1 - Christy Mathewson-1909
1.6 - SP 1 - Pete Alexander-1915
1.6 - SP 1 - Roger Clemens-1997
1.6 - SP 1 - Cy Young-1901
1.6 - SP 1 - Ron Guidry-1978
1.6 - SP 1 - Lefty Grove-1931
1.6 - SP 1 - Dwight Gooden-1985
1.6 - SP 1 - Kevin Brown-1996

1.6 - SP 2 - Mordecai Brown-1906
1.5 - SP 2 - Ed Walsh-1910
1.5 - SP 2 - Dazzy Vance-1924
1.5 - SP 2 - Rube Waddell-1902
1.5 - SP 2 - Juan Marichal-1966
1.5 - SP 2 - Jason Schmidt-2003
1.5 - SP 2 - Addie Joss-1908
1.5 - SP 2 - Satchel Paige-1931
1.5 - SP 2 - Tom Seaver-1971
1.5 - SP 2 - Monty Stratton-1937
1.5 - SP 2 - Silver King-1888
1.5 - SP 2 - Hal Newhouser-1946
1.5 - SP 2 - Mort Cooper-1942
1.5 - SP 2 - Bret Saberhagen-1989
1.5 - SP 2 - Luis Tiant-1968

1.5 - SP 3 - Mike Scott-1986
1.5 - SP 3 - Curt Schilling-2002
1.5 - SP 3 - Harry Brecheen-1948
1.5 - SP 3 - Vida Blue-1971
1.5 - SP 3 - Kevin Millwood-1999
1.5 - SP 3 - Charley Radbourn-1884
1.5 - SP 3 - Lefty Gomez-1937
1.5 - SP 3 - Rich Harden-2008
1.5 - SP 3 - Zack Greinke-2009
1.5 - SP 3 - Carl Hubbell-1933
1.5 - SP 3 - John Tudor-1985
1.5 - SP 3 - Ed Reulbach-1905
1.5 - SP 3 - Ben Sheets-2004
1.5 - SP 3 - Spud Chandler-1943
1.5 - SP 3 - Charlie Sweeney-1884

1.5 - SP 4 - Derek Lowe-2002
1.5 - SP 4 - Billy Pierce-1955
1.4 - SP 4 - Ted Lyons-1939
1.4 - SP 4 - David Cone-1994
1.4 - SP 4 - Joe Wood-1912
1.4 - SP 4 - Garland Braxton-1928
1.4 - SP 4 - Steve Carlton-1972
1.4 - SP 4 - Joe Horlen-1964
1.4 - SP 4 - Russ Ford-1910
1.4 - SP 4 - Dolf Luque-1923
1.4 - SP 4 - Kid Nichols-1898
1.4 - SP 4 - Warren Hacker-1952
1.4 - SP 4 - Bill Bernhard-1902
1.4 - SP 4 - Chris Carpenter-2009
1.4 - SP 4 - Eddie Cicotte-1917

1.4 - SP 5 - Tim Lincecum-2009
1.4 - SP 5 - Lady Baldwin-1885
1.3 - SP 5 - Al Orth-1901
1.3 - SP 5 - Johnny Podres-1957
1.3 - SP 5 - Jack Chesbro-1904
1.3 - SP 5 - Ben Sanders-1888
1.2 - SP 5 - Cannonball Titcomb-1888
1.3 - SP 5 - Tex Hughson-1946
1.4 - SP 5 - Babe Adams-1919
1.3 - SP 5 - Dizzy Dean-1934
1.2 - SP 5 - Pete Conway-1888
1.3 - SP 5 - Jesse Tannehill-1902
1.4 - SP 5 - Scott Stratton-1890
1.4 - SP 5 - Andy Pettitte-2005
1.3 - SP 5 - Noodles Hahn-1904