Draft Start Day Set: Monday January 20th

Same format as last year.  Week 1 is slow, with only 24 picks per day.  Rest of the draft is faster and we'll pick 67 per day until we finish with a short day on Thursday February 6th.

We've also had a suggestion from the stanch ownership crowd - picking parks before we start drafting.  Would love some feedback on the idea.  On one hand it makes sense and is more realistic; and anything that makes the draft more challenging is generally a positive.

On the other hand it may not be prudent to introduce so much change in one year - banishing of the DH and not being able to tailor your park to your team may be too much.

Would appreciate any feedback in the comments.

Is the Pedro Era Over?

No, but I wanted everyone to read this so bear with the awful title.

I wanted to try and gauge how important it will be to find a good hitting pitcher.  To start, I calculated the average "real-life" slash line for ATB eligible pitchers: .181 / .223 / .243.  That's anemic but actually a bit better than I expected.  

From here I thought it would be interesting to group all these pitchers into broad OPS categories to get a better idea of the distribution.  The figures below include a rough adjustment for park, but not era.  Again, real life data only.  It's admittedly a bit arbitrary and non-scientific, but should work for our purposes.

I included only those with 85 or more than 85 AB as rough estimate of starting pitchers:

OPS
 0.5%: .900+
 1.8%: .800 - .899
 6.7%: .700 - .799
13.3%: .600 - .699
21.7%: .500 - .599
26.1%: .400 - .499
 8.2%: .300 - .399
 1.4%: .100 - .199

Their median OPS score was .480.  

One way to judge the impact is to put those lost at bats in terms of a #1 pick.  For instance, most pitchers figure to have about 100 ABs and if you choose a low end option - say Sandy Koufax who went 9 for 118 - you are basically adding an 0 for 100 out of your first your draft pick batter.

Think about that.  Lets say Stan Musial was your 1st round draft pick, if we take away 100 hits with the same distribution of extra base hits that he had in 1948, his OPS plummets from 1.152 all the down to .700.

If instead you choose a higher end option, say Robin Roberts who went 27 for 107, you would effectively drop Musial to 'only; a .790

Repeat this for every starting pitcher on the team and you can quickly see how a good hitting pitching staff can be a real bonus.

Effect of the American League Pitcher
This also got me to wondering how DMB will treat unrated pitchers.  We know most pitchers with a batting line will be awful thanks to an average real life OPS of .480, but what will DMB do to American League Pitchers in the DH era.  Will they hit better than bad hitters?  Or will they be even worse off than 1962 Bob Buhl? (It's worth the click).

Well, it's not quite Buhl but it is a worst case scenario.  Using last years ATB 15 database which is chock full of pitchers with no stats, I simmed a lone season and found pitchers combined to hit .064 / .093 / .077.  

Ouch.

This will undoubtedly impact the draft value of the DH era AL pitchers.  Here are a few of the bigger names that just got knocked down a peg or two:

Name (Career ATB ERA)

• Pedro Martinez (2.68)
• Roy Halladay (3.58)
• Justin Verlander (3.60)
• Roger Clemens (3.75)
• Mike Mussina (3.87)
• Catfish Hunter (4.02)
• Johan Santana (4.04)

In the last three years Pedro has been drafted 2nd twice and 3rd once - will he drop to 4th or even 5th now?

Thanks to Sean who helped with the idea and many of the details for this article.

Bob Caruthers and his .971 OPS

Adding pitcher batting history into DMB is tedious work.  After a few hours there is seemingly no difference between a .130, .170, or an .060 batting average - they are all atrocious.  But every once in a while I come across a gem.

Many already know about Bob Caruthers batting prowess, but it's worth mentioning again.  In 1886 he batted .334 / .444 / .527 with 21 doubles and 14 triples.

Nice job Parisian Bob.

Divisional Alignment for ATB 16

(Post updated with owner historical wins and win percentage)

We're moving forward assuming I find a 24th owner over the next few days.  Here is the Divisional Alignment this year, as determined by random # generator in Excel.

American League East

1. Ivar A ---- 534 W, .471 
2. Mike M ----- 91 W, .562
3. Brian B --- 456 W, .469
4. Justin P - 1423 W, .587

American League Central

1. Joe V -- 151 W, .466
2. Jay H -- 286 W, .441
3. Placeholder 
4. Matt B - 480 W, .494

American League West

1. Leanne S - 239 W, .492
2. Allen C -- 299 W, .369
3. Jason B -- 540 W, .556
4. Steve C -- 552 W, .568

National League East

1. Dave K ----- 182 W, .562
2. Jeff B ----- 632 W, .488
3. Shotgun S -- 405 W, .500
4. Brad P ---- 1185 W, .523

National League Central

1. Justin B -- New
2. Joe T ----- 519 W, .534
3. TJ O ----- 1183 W, .487
4. Sean S ---- 968 W, .544

 National League West

1. Gary G -- 145 W, .448
2. Lou P -- 1446 W, .596
3. Mike S - 1400 W, .587 
4. Greg M --- 63 W, .389

More Draft Resources Updated

• Last Seasons Draft Log
• Eligible Pitchers Spreadsheet
• And the batting lines for those eligible pitchers

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/draft_day.htm

23 Confirmed Owners for Next Season

Welcome back Jay H

Allen C
Brad P
Brian B
Dave K
Gary G
Greg M
Ivar A
Jay H
Jason B
Jeff B
Joe T
Joe V
Justin B
Justin P
Leanne S
Lou P
Matt B
Mike M
Mike S
Sean S
Shotgun S
Steve C
TJ O

If your name isn't listed and you are interested please drop me a line or comment here.

Thanks!

ATB Delay

For reasons beyond my control (paying job), ATB will be delayed a few weeks.  New target date is late January/Early February. 

Still need two owners - any leads?

Ho Ho Ho - Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!

Some Draft Resources Updated

Last Seasons Draft
Era File
Eligible Batters
Ballparks

All found on the draft day page: http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/draft_day.htm

2013 Disk Purchased

Ratings are out on the Defensive Ratings page - http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Def_Ratings.htm