Friday, May 31, 2013

20 Resims: #13 - Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars



I still can’t decide if playing in the Baker Bowl (300 HR Park Factor) was a good thing or bad.  On the positive side, the Rusty Kuntz All Stars scored runs in bunches, drilling 313 home runs and leading all of ATB in slugging and ISO.  Lists are fun:

45 HR – Reggie Jackson
41 HR – Roger Maris
43 HR – Willie Stargell
40 HR – Carlos Pena
36 HR – Joe DiMaggio
28 HR – Ken Caminiti
25 HR – Bobby Grich
21 HR – Chris Hoiles 

That’s a lot of power.  The Baker Bowl also suppresses singles by about 10% which means fewer base runners to score on all those home runs.  The team's OBP was just .301 and four every day players recorded OBP’s well under .300.

Of course all those home runs can devastate a pitching staff too.  Here’s the 500 resim ERA and 20 Resim ERA for key starting pitchers, side by side.

3.27 vs 4.38 – Walter Johnson
3.79 vs 4.89 – Cy Young
3.90 vs 4.79 – Tex Hughson
3.77 vs 4.48 – Ron Guidry

The bullpen was much the same:

2.63 vs 3.02 – Joe Nathan
2.57 vs 3.50 – JJ Putz
3.38 vs 4.19 – Bryan Harvey
3.12 vs 4.14 – Derek Lilliquist

They sure were fun to watch though.  It would be interesting to see how this team would have fared with a better defense to aid the pitching staff – only two regulars should be considered above average defenders.  Or perhaps swapping one of the power hitters for a high OBP guy like Billy Hamilton (Rd 4).

A final fun stat to leave with – the All Stars with 3rd in scoring, yet no player averaged 100 or more RBI.  However, five regulars did average between 87 and 98, now that is a balanced lineup

800 OPS Batters: 
.851 – Joe DiMaggio
.827 – Willie Stargell

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
3.02 – Joe Nathan

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 18 – Roger Maris.  Hey, had had crazy holes in his swing but he did drill 41 home runs and drive in 87

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Tex Hughson (4.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)


We’re halfway through, here is how the divisions are looking.  It’s safe to say the AL West and NL Central were the worst divisions in ATB, with just 1 team in each ranking in the upper half of the league.


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears
14) 81 wins, Niagara Frontier Blackbirds
13) 81 wins, Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars

Thursday, May 30, 2013

20 Resims: #14 - Niagara Frontier Blackbirds



Niagara Frontier gets my vote for most surprising result in the resims.  During the regular season the Blackbirds were tragically awful, winning just 63 with a -142 run differential.  Quite unfortunately, they were as bad as they looked.

The resims revealed a completely different team.  Niagara never came close to winning 63 again, the lowest win total in the resims was 72 and they averaged 81, peaking at 94.  Playing in the same division as Spanish Harlem they rarely had on opportunity to win the division, but they did make the playoffs 6 times.

Without any specific stars, Niagara was simply a balanced team with few gaping holes in their lineup or rotation.  All four members of the rotation sported ERA’s between 3.94 and 4.32 while their bullpen, anchored by Tim Burke (See below), was just about average too.  Joe Berry pitched 100 innings per season with a 1.20 WHIP with Jim Poole successfully retiring lefties to the tune of a 3.37 ERA. The rest compiled slightly worse than average ERA’s.

Their lineup was centered around second basemen Nap Lajoie (.306 / .342 / 464, 53 2B, 14 HR) but several other players filled roles rather well.  First Basemen Tommy Tucker had an above average OBP (.358) with Duke Snider (23 HR), Josh Gibson (29 HR), and Mel Ott  (25 HR) providing power behind him.

The team certainly needed to get on base more (.310 team OBP) but this was a rather good rookie draft for owner Greg M.

800 OPS Batters: 
.806 – Nap Lajoie

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.94 – Bill Swift

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.66 – Tim Burke

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 16 - Steve Evans (.269 / .318 / .440 with 29 doubles in part time play)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Catfish Hunter (acquired via trade, but just 4 IP per season)


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears
14) 81 wins, Niagara Frontier Blackbirds

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

All Time Manager Rankings

Here is the worksheet

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/All Time Managers Through ATB XV.xlsx

1) 651 Pts - Lou Poulas (0 Chg)
2) 638 Pts - Justin Petronzi (0 Chg)
3) 626 Pts - Mike Smitko (0 Chg)
4) 602 Pts - Steve Chippendale (0 Chg)
5) 579 Pts - Sean Seeley (0 Chg)
6) 575 Pts - Jason Bernarndon (1 Chg)
7) 565 Pts - Brad Peterson (-1 Chg)
8) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski (1 Chg)
9) 540 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter (4 Chg)
10) 538 Pts - Joe Terry (1 Chg)
11) 531 Pts - TJ Olszewski (-1 Chg)
12) 520 Pts - Justin Burnson (-4 Chg)
13) 518 Pts - Jeff Burns (-1 Chg)
14) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein (0 Chg)
15) 500 Pts - Matt Brody (3 Chg)
16) 494 Pts - Jay Seeley (-1 Chg)
17) 492 Pts - Shotgun Spratling (-1 Chg)
18) 490 Pts - David Kuenn (18 Chg)
19) 489 Pts - Ivar Anderson (2 Chg)
20) 483 Pts - Brian Barnes (2 Chg)
21) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas (-4 Chg)
22) 478 Pts - Leane Sarubbi (-2 Chg)
23) 441 Pts - Michael Rippe (-4 Chg)
24) 434 Pts - Kevin Crowley (1 Chg)
25) 432 Pts - Jay Hattem (2 Chg)
26) 408 Pts - Joe Valenzano (NA Chg)
27) 404 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh (-4 Chg)
28) 398 Pts - Matt Hinzpeter (-4 Chg)
29) 382 Pts - Gary Gambino (12 Chg)
30) 376 Pts - Ben Matsil (-4 Chg)
31) 363 Pts - Allen Cherulnik  (-1 Chg)
32) 357 Pts - Devon Eckhart (-4 Chg)
33) 357 Pts - Andy Matsil (-4 Chg)
34) 326 Pts - Adam Bloomquist (-3 Chg)
35) 306 Pts - Scott Carter (-3 Chg)
36) 297 Pts - Mike Green (-3 Chg)
37) 281 Pts - Mike Murphy (NA Chg)
38) 275 Pts - Bruce Nalepka (-4 Chg)
39) 256 Pts - Larry Caggiano (-4 Chg)
40) 235 Pts - Jim Nugent (-3 Chg)
41) 235 Pts - Richard Madachik (-3 Chg)
42) 231 Pts - Mike Wishnick (-3 Chg)
43) 231 Pts - Scott Salley (-3 Chg)
44) 225 Pts - Dennis Slinger (-2 Chg)
45) 225 Pts - Ted Knorr (NA Chg)
46) 216 Pts - Bob Lessard (-3 Chg)
47) 213 Pts - Paul Nebenfuer (-3 Chg)
48) 210 Pts - Greg Stillwagon (-3 Chg)
49) 207 Pts - Jason Schwartz (-2 Chg)
50) 198 Pts - John Wolford (-2 Chg)
51) 194 Pts - Chris Kelly (-2 Chg)
52) 194 Pts - Greg Murphy (NA Chg)
53) 188 Pts - Ron Aukamp (-3 Chg)
54) 188 Pts - Adam Luther (-3 Chg)
55) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes (-3 Chg)
56) 185 Pts - Bill Nyman (NA Chg)
57) 173 Pts - Paul Taschereau Jr (-4 Chg)
58) 167 Pts - Neil Book (-4 Chg)
59) 164 Pts - Mario Iafrate & Russ Palmer (-4 Chg)

20 Resims: #15 - North Valley Bears



North Valley is another good team that in any given season had a legitimate chance at making the playoffs.  It’s apparent than ATB XV was a league of parity and we’ll soon see that half the league ended up between 77 and 85 wins and two-thirds of the league had win total’s between 70 and 90.

The question of the day is not so much about the Bears, and instead about negro leaguer Willie Wells.  After a stellar 500 resims (.271 / .351 / .490) Wells was grabbed by TJ at #6 overall, only to bust, batting .232 / .309 / .388 in the regular season.  Turns is TJ was mostly vindicated.  Wells may not be worth a Top-10 pick, but in the resims the great fielding shortstop batted .258 / .333 / .463 in  a park that suppresses home runs and doubles, very good numbers and more than acceptable for a 1st rounder.

Wells had some help.  Ken Williams, Mike Schmidt, Johnny Mize, Ryan Howard, and Vlad Guerrero combined to hit 160 home runs and Pete Browning swiped 80 bases a year.

The staff averaged a 3.97 team ERA, solid numbers that put them almost exactly at league median.  Harry Brecheen was a legitimate ace (15-11, 3.63) and the rotation as a whole averaged a 4.18 ERA.  Their bullpen could have used a top flight reliever, but TJ chose to wait on draft day, selecting his first reliever in round 10, and his second in round 14.  This results were predictable – no one with a 3.25 or better ERA.

TJ’s bears made the playoffs 9 times and in 7 of those instances won the division.  With 1 or 2 more top end players this team easily could be ranked in the top half of the league.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.63 – Harry Brecheen

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None, though Keith Foulke (3.27) and Jim Brewer (3.34) were close

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 13 – Ryan Howard (.720 OPS, 36 HR, 89 RBI)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 2 – Roger Clemens (4.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).  Not terrible numbers, but you need more from a 2nd rounder who is to be your ace


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Spanish Harlem Wins World Series!



Congratulations Justin P on your 3rd World Series Title!

Series MVP:  The Beaters Pen, wish lasted 17 innings without giving up a single run.  Pat Jarvis led the way with 8.2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, and 2 K's.

20 Resims: #16 - Otherton Fishbiscuits


What a mighty blow for Brian B.

Just a few weeks ago Brian was in the LDS having won 88 regular season games and gaining the National League Wild Card birth.  Today we find his team was actually akin to a 79 win club and therefore receives just the 16th place ranking in the resims.  The Biscuits made the playoffs a quarter of the time and won the division title in Sim 4 but on average mustered just a negative-9 run differential.

Sim 4 was a magical season though, and the 16th ranking may just be worth it.  Brian drafted a defense and pitching minded squad and placed them in the Bee Hive. Heading into the season the all time record was 545 runs against and Otherton came close to breaking it with 565 runs against.  Turns out this was a fluke, in the resims they averaged 532 runs scored and broke the record 12 times!

Season 4 was the pinnacle of great pitching.  The team allowed just 482 runs and I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves:


It literally does not get ANY better than that. The lineup performed better as well and Otherton won the division with 98 wins.

On average though, unfortunately for Brian his 1st ranked pitching staff was entirely offset by his 24th ranked lineup.  Only Bill Terry cracked a .700 OPS (barely) and 5 regulars were at .603 or worse.  Jon Jay batted .219 / .278 / .239.  I believe an all pitching team can win, but to do so the offense needs to be almost entirely OBP driven.

800 OPS Batters: 
None, not even close, thank you Bee Hive

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
2.13 – Pedro Martinez
3.31 – Bill Bernhard
3.39 – Juan Marichal
3.70 – Danny Darwin
Brian used a 4 man rotation so that’s all of em

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.09 – Dennis Eckersley
2.46 – Bill Henry
2.88 – Dick Hall
3.13 – Ray Narleski

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 24 – Ferdie Schupp (3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 9 – Ezra Sutton (.250 / .291 / .302, .593 OPS).  He was actually acquired via trade, but this line is so bad for a Rd 1-10 player I had to post it.  Amazingly, Sutton did well in the regular season (.313 / .359 / .382) and NLDS.


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits

Sunday, May 26, 2013

20 Resims: #17 - Rochester Beau Brummels



Now we are getting somewhere.  

Averaging 78 wins, including eight above .500 seasons and six playoff appearances, Leanne constructed a quality team that competed late in the season for all but three sims.  By far, Fred Dunlap was the team’s best player, batting .335 / .401 / .524 with 46 doubles, 20 home runs, and 113 RBI.  Not bad for a defensive minded second basemen!  Despite a team .303 OBP the Beau Brummells were 11th in scoring, and were a bit of an anomaly relying on batting average (7th best).  They also hit for power – 7 players hit 20 or more doubles and 7 reached double digit home runs.

Rochester’s weak spot was the pitching staff.  This isn’t to say it was awful; rather, they had no top end players in the rotation and only one in the bullpen.  Christy Mathewson, Hal Newhouser, and Pete Alexander were all around league average starters and Juan Guzman and Ben Sheets struggled, but weren’t disasters.  

The pen was a bit worse off.  Sure Gossage was stellar (see below) but every other reliever was below average, though not by much outside of Bob Caruthers (5.14 ERA, 1.53 WHIP).

Putting it all together it worked almost as much as it failed.  Eleven times the team compiled a run differential within 25 runs of net-zero and this team was our first to win a division title, doing so three times.  

800 OPS Batters: 
.925 OPS – Fred Dunlap

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.91 – Goose Gossage

Best Value Draft Pick
No great value to be found, I actually think Dunlap (.335 / .401 / .524) at 11th overall was a steal though

Bust Draft Pick

Again, not standouts, but Cap Anson in the 8th round received only 287 AB


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels

Saturday, May 25, 2013

20 Resims: #18 - Planet 10 Red Lectroids


I am not quite sure what to make of this team.  An offense led by Ty Cobb, Albert Pujols, Rickey Henderson, Ron Santo, and to a certain extent Will Clark sounds acceptable.  But playing in strong hitters park, the Red Lectroids were just 20th in the league in scoring.  Cobb was great, perhaps his best showing ever at .318 / .364 / .486 but almost everyone one else outside of Rickey Henderson struggled.

Albert Pujols was a bust (see below), but it was completely avoidable.  Here were the 79 resim, 500 resim, and ATB Career lines for two of the Pujols years available.

2008 – 79 R – .284 / .355 / .426, .781 OPS
2006 – 79 R – .259 / .319 / .438, .757 OPS

2008 – 500R – .275 / .345 / .457, .805 OPS
2006 – 500R – .247 / .303 / .456, .759 OPS

2008 – Career – .295 / .362 / .429, .781 OPS
2006 – Career – never been used

Ivar went against the data, choosing 2006, and paid for it.

Planet 10 enjoyed nice work fromJohan Sanatana who has quietly emerged as a borderline ace starting pitcher (1.21 WHIP in both the 500 and 20 resims).  The balance of the rotation was average (Bucky Walters, Theodore Trent) to below average (Mike Scott, Earl Moore).

The Red Lectroids made the playoffs three times and were within 5 games of the playoffs three other times as well.  Season 8 must particularly painful to review – it was their best year for both Wins and Run Differential, and they missed the playoffs after tying for the division lead.

800 OPS Batters: 
.847 – Ty Cobb

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.66 – Johan Santana

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.68 – Rafael Betancourt
3.20 – Willie Hernandez

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 15 - Will Clark (.276 / .323 / .427)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Albert Pujols (.238 / .297 / .439 in a batters park).


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids

Friday, May 24, 2013

20 Resims: #19 - Leesburg Snowhole



After a great 2nd half during the regular season, owner Jay H had high expectations for his Leesburg squad in the 20 resims.  Unfortunately, their 80 regular season wins was about as best as this team could do, but there are two key positives to take from this.

1) Jay H did a very good job managing the team, besting both the OD Resim Average, Balance Resim Average along with the all important standard Resim Average.  Plus, he was only 3 games off the pace for the resim max wins.  All of this speaks to getting the most out of what was drafted.
2) Jay H also drafted a very good pitching staff, with enough quality to be ranked  8th best in the league measured by runs against.  Four starters had ERA’s under 4.00 and their 5th starter narrowly missed the honor too.  Four members of the bullpen, led by John Wetteland, were above average.  He gambled on Nip Winters and it paid off, Winters is a bona fide ace.

The issue with Leesburg was in the lineup.  Scoring a paltry 625 runs per resim they were ranked 2nd to last in the league and no player, starting or coming off the bench, cracked an .800 OPS.

The Mike Trout experiment looked promising but ended up bust; their second batter taken, Goose Goslin, suffered from a .306 OBP; and in fact, 7 of their 10 regulars averaged a .276 OBP between them.  All of which added up to the 2nd worst team OBP in league at .291, only the Fishbiscuits were worse and they played in an extreme pitcher's park.

For kicks, I ran the correlation between run scoring and the three key major rate stats in our league – AVG, OBP, power measured by ISO:

73% - OBP
51% - AVG
50% - ISO

OBP is king, remember that!  Major league baseball is much the same, with OBP receiving an 83% correlation, AVG 74%, and ISO 50%.  Not sure why DMB doesn’t value batting average as high as we might expect when compared with real life.  Will have to think on that.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.38 – Nip Winters
3.86 – Deacon Phillippe
3.97 – Addie Joss
3.96 – Justin Verlander
And 5h starter Claude Hendrix just missed at 4.10

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.79 – John Wetteland
3.19 – Medleen (in just 20 IP per year)
With Tom Gordon (3.31) coming close too

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 19 – Ed Rile (.728 OPS, 48 doubles)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Mike Trout (.229 / .286 / .356)



20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole

World Series Break

Due to the unavailability of myself, Sean, and Justin, Game 6 will be held on Tuesday, 9.30 P M