Stock Up, Stock Down (In the Early Going Anyway)

Most of the draft board chatter, especially through the 1st round, centered around how deep this draft seemed to be.  There were no 1st round blunders that we've grown accustomed to from years past - no Sandy Koufax, Mordecai Brown, or (cough) Jimmie Foxx in the top-10.

I thought it would be interesting to test this evidence and see how true it really is.

Round 1 - Stock Down
Willie Wells and Turkey Stearnes

After an abysmal showing with TJ O last year (.232 / .309 / .388), wells stuck has plummeted, dropping from the 6th overall pick to long outside the top 10.  At 14 PJ D may have seemed to gamble a bit, but the 500 resims tell another story.  Wells likely just had an off year in ATB 15, batting .277 / .351 / .490 in the last 500 resim compilation.  The after season ATB XV 20 resims mostly back this up too.  With Ex/79 defense, it's a more than reasonable draft pick.

I had a love hate relationship with Stearnes last year.  I loved his extra base hits (league leading 415 Total Bases) and above average defense (Vg/95) but I am on "on base" guy and watching Turkey hover between .315 and .330 all season was tiring at times.  I vowed not to select him again but it was a close run thing.  This season, Jason B nabbed him at 22nd overall, a 5 slot drop and odds are he'll be satisfied

Round 2 - Stock Up
Tip O'Neill, Nip Winters, and Larry Walker

Sean S jumped 9 slots from last year, nabbing Tip O'neill at 21st overall.  Did he jump too early?  Likely not - in ATB 14 O'Neill went 21st and in ATB 13 he went 12th (before the 1800s reset).  Last season the left fielder batted .327 / .364 / .526 which is in line with his resim results.  This is a case of O'Neill getting drafted too late last year, not one of Sean moving too early.

Last season, Nip Winters was selected 25th overall but moved up 7 slots after I selected him 18th.  It may have been too early, but I wanted a ace who could hit this season, and Winters was only 1 of 2 options.

I am a firm believer that Ivar A is somehow related to Larry Walker.  This is Ivar's 8th season with ATB and its his 5th time drafting the right fielder.  As mentioned, I am personally enamored with on-base percentage and therefore Walker is not my type of player, at least in the early rounds, but there is no doubt few players bring the combination of stellar defense and consistent power, without giving up on batting average.  For instance, Walker hits 30 home runs per year with a .340 OBP.  Hank Aaron hits 34 home runs with a .290 on base.

Here is the full list of 1st rounders.  Please note that last year we used Rogers Hornsby 1925.:

Round 2 - Stock Down
Things start to diverge greatly in the second round.  This is to be expected so I won't spend a lot of time with words.  Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, and Jeff Bagwell all drop at least 10 slots.  I particularly like TJ O's choice of Foxx - for years, too many of them by far, the wrong Foxx year has been chosen.  Last year Matt B and the "Mechanics" made the switch from 1932 to 1933 and TJ continued making it a new trend. Thank goodness.

500 Resim:
1932 - .254 / .345 / .506 with 20 2B and 43 HR
1933 - .274 / .350 / .539 with 33 2B and 39 HR

Round 2 - Stock Up
Roger Connor and George Hall stick out like sore thumbs.  Joe T's first basemen was drafted a full 36 slots earlier this year, a round and half earlier if you prefer.  I understand why, there are very few .400 OBP players available to us, but it will be interesting to see how Joe obtains power when his first basemen averages 1 home run per season.  Not too say it is not possible or even difficult, truly, it will just be interesting.

George Hall was taken 33 slots earlier than last year, and with his 346 error rate in a no DH league, one has to wonder if Hall could have been taken a round or two later this year.  He can hit with the best, but a gamble on him falling into the 3rd or 4th round may have been worth PJ D's while.

One other item to note. Heading into this season, 1909 Eddie Collins has been selected 5 of the last 6 years.  This has been a mistake and one that Steve C did not repeat.  1914 Collins is better and likely why Steve took him 9 slots earlier than last year.

Here is the 2nd round list (with a handful of 3rd rounders sprinkled in):