Sunday, August 15, 2010

Resim Power Alley - #17, Willets Point Mechanics

#17 – Willets Point Mechanics
Owner: Matt B

The Mechanics would have rated higher, but in the confusion of the 20 resims, a new lineup wasn’t submitted and one of their better pitches, Cy Blanton, was left out of the starting rotation. Still, it is telling that Matt, an active owner, piloted his team to 76 regular season wins, just one better then the best win total of the 20 resims.

The resim pitching was dreadful outside of Greg Maddux, and their offense had similar issues outside of Dan Brouthers, one of the more underrated players in the game today.

Finally, it is worth noting that there is a natural dividing line between the 17th ranked Mechanics and the 18th -20th ranked teams. The Brews had twelve 100 loss seasons, the Pitches had six the Rage eight, and this squad had just 1.

800 OPS Batters
Rd3 – Dan Brouthers: .328 / .393 / .461, 42 2B, 107 R

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd1 – Greg Maddux: 15-12, 3.40 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 234 IP, 45 BB, 138 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd8 – Kent Tekulve: 3.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 77 IP, 28 BB, 21 K
Rd10 – Tug McGraw: 3.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 69 IP, 21 BB, 47 K

Bust Draft Pick
No obvious busts, but you need more productivity out of a 5th round right fielder:
Tony Gwynn: .350 SLG, 0 HR, 41 RBI

Value Draft Pick
Rd 27 – Earl Combs: 369 AB, .300 / .385 / .380


Resim Power Alley - #18, Potomac Rage

#18 – Potomac Rage
Owner: Jay H


For a team that averaged 67 wins, this offense was surprise. Led by MVP Lou Gehrig, the Rage also two players top 25 home runs (Al Rosen and Pedro Guerrero) while Steve Evans hit 40 doubles and 13 triples.

The real issue with this team was the pitching staff. With an average starter ERA over 5.00 it was impossible for the offense to make up the slack. Of note, you may recall Zack Greinke’s success in the exhibitions games. His final re-sim line was ugly: 4.90 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 185 IP.

While never a .500 team, in Sim 11 they scored 802 wins while in Sim 20 they gave up just 662. Had their offense and pitching staffs peaked in the same year, they would have won around 85 games.

800 OPS Batters
Rd1 – Lou Gehrig: .304 / .411 / .583, 37 HR, 111 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 3-Dwight Gooden: 10-15, 4.72 ERA

Value Draft Pick
Rd 21-Keith Foulke: 29 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Saturday, August 14, 2010

LCS Game 7 Complete

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/LCS_series_ATBXII.htm

Sonoran Black Diamonds 13, DC Chips 2
In a miserable 7th game, one of the least exciting in recent memory, the Black Diamonds explode for 9 runs in the second inning, easily winning the game and advancing to the World Series to face the Dumai's Wells Oathbinders.

The inning wasn't even that memorable - only 4 Sonoran hits were required, but Starter Ben Sanders and reliever Frank Killen walked 5 in the process. The big blow was a Fred Lynn grand slam to make the score 9-0.

Starters
- Carpenter (SBD): 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
- Sanders (DC): 1.1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Notes
- Fred Dunlap (SBD) had 2 hits and 3 RBI
- Chipper Jones (SBD) had 2 RBI
- The three key pitchers during the regular season for the Chips were all shelled. In additional to Sanders struggles, Frank Killen gave up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning, and Joe Neale another 4 runs in 4.1 innings.
- The win was costly though - Sonoran lost both their starting shortstop and back up shortstops to injury. Joe Sewell is down for 8 days, while Dave Bancroft is out 3.

The series MVP goes to Chipper Jones, who batted .448 / .515 / .724 with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 6 runs, and 7 RBI. He led the Black Diamond offense in AVG, OBP, SLG, at bats, hits, home runs, and RBI while tied for second in doubles and runs scored.

Friday, August 13, 2010

LCS Game 6 Complete

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/LCS_series_ATBXII.htm

Sonoran Black Diamonds 5, DC Chips 2

At this point, should anyone really be surprised? DC ran into a buzz saw tonight, striking out 14 times in 7 1/3 innings against the league's best K-man, "Fair" Lady Baldwin. With a 5-2 lead, the Black Diamond pen pitched the final innings without giving up a hit. Chipper Jones and Robin Yount supplied the Black Diamond offense, both homering in the early innings.

Starters
- Baldwin (SBD): 7.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 14 K
- Braxton (DC): 8.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Notes
- Roberto Clemente and Jimmy Ryan (DC) had two hits each in the loss
- At one point in the game, Baldwin struck out 10 of 14 batters
- Game 7 is tomorrow. It will be DC's Ace and Cy Young award winner Ben Sanders (17-5, 2.30) versus Chris Carpenter, who through a 6-hit shutout in Game 2

Thursday, August 12, 2010

LCS Game 5's Complete

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/LCS_series_ATBXII.htm

DC Chips 6, Sonoran Black Diamonds 4
On the cusp of an improbable 3 game winning streak, the Black Diamonds had a terrible 7th, giving up 4 runs on 3 hits, a walk, and a crucial error. The knockout blow was a 2 run double by Arky Vaughan, giving the Chips a 5-4 lead they would later extend.

The series heads back to Washington where the Chips have to win 1 of the next two games.

Starters Lines
- Scott (DC): 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
- Orth (SBD): 6.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Notes
- Barry Bonds (SBD) had 2 hits, a homer, and 3 RBI in the loss
- Johnny Mize (DC) had 2 hits and home run too
- Frank Killen (DC) entered the game in releife after a poor showing by starter SCott. His 3.1 innings of no run, 5 K ball allowed DC to keep the game close.


Duma's Wells Oathbinders 5, San Diego Puff 4
Babe Adams pitched well and despite another shaky outing by closer Mariano Rivera, the Oathbinders advance to the World Series in a 3-1 LCS win. They scrapped their way to 3 runs in the third, opening up a 4-0 lead. The Puff later rallied for a run in the 6th and 2 in the 8th, but ultimately fell short leaving runners at the corners in the bottom of the 8th. Bill Wagner struck out the side to end the game without fanfare.

Starters Lines
- Adams (DWO): 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
- Lincecum (SDP): 2.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Notes
- Ken Griffey Jr (DWO) had two hits and two RBI
- Sam Thompson (SDP) doubled and tripled in the loss
- George Sisler (SDP) had three hits.

MVP
- Babe Adams is named series MVP. He won games 1 and 5 and his final line: 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 6 K.

Resim Power Alley - #19, Sons of Pitches

It's that time of year!

In the following days we'll roll out the Re-sim Power Alley countdown to the best team in the league, as judged by 20 the resims. This by no means overshadows the regular season - the ATB Champion is and always will be the best team of the season. However, it is fun to know whether your team was a fluke success or an unexpected failure through dumb luck.

I ran 20 regular season sims and compiled the data to compare teams. Owners had the ability to submit a resim specific lineup and all injuries were turned off.
To make it fair for the playoff teams, I first compiled team level data only (standings, total runs scored, total batting and pitching averages) which was used for the Power Alley rankings. To avoid a conflict of interest, the data is next compiled team by team staring with the lowest ranked. This is to avoid an unfair advantage of seeing or publishing lineup and rotation data for the playoff contenders. Let the countdown...begin!

#19 - Sons of Pitches
Owner: John W


Our 19th ranked team fared little better than the 20th ranked Brews. While the Pitches had about an average offense (.723 OPS) they truly struggled with their pitching staff. Their team 4.97 ERA was second worst in ATB, and their #2 draft pick Hal Newhouser was a complete bust. Overall, they had six 100-loss seasons and never had a positive run differential.

Their best record was 74-88, a mark they reached three times.

800 OPS Batters
None, though Al Simmons did have 24 HR and 113 RBI, and Mike Piazza (.292 / .340 / .424) was one of the best cathcers in the league.

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Eric Gagne - Rd 8: 2.65 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 56 IP

Bust Draft Pick
Hal Newhouser - Rd 2: 8-15, 5.68 ERA, 1.67 WHIP

Value Draft Pick
David Ortiz - Rd 21: .262 / .370 / .396, 559 AB




Resim Power Alley - #20, Downsouth Brews

It's that time of year!

In the following days we'll roll out the Re-sim Power Alley countdown to the best team in the league, as judged by 20 the resims. This by no means overshadows the regular season - the ATB Champion is and always will be the best team of the season. However, it is fun to know whether your team was a fluke success or an unexpected failure through dumb luck.

I ran 20 regular season sims and compiled the data to compare teams. Owners had the ability to submit a resim specific lineup and all injuries were turned off.

To make it fair for the playoff teams, I first compiled team level data only (standings, total runs scored, total batting and pitching averages) which was used for the Power Alley rankings. To avoid a conflict of interest, the data is next compiled team by team staring with the lowest ranked. This is to avoid an unfair advantage of seeing or publishing lineup and rotation data for the playoff contenders.
Let the countdown...begin!


#20 - Downsouth Brews
Owner: Allen

The Brews are proof positive of how sample size needs to be considered when analyzing baseball. At the end of May, the Brews had one of the best records in the game, Jimmie Foxx was the runaway MVP winner, and Sandy Koufax looked like the bigger than life MLB version straight out of the 1960s. By the end of the season however, the Brews were dead last with a horrific -175 Run Differential.

Which team was valid? The latter unfortunately. As the data above shows, the Brews had an extremely lucky two months, perhaps the only lucky 2 months in the 21 seasons worth of data we have. The team averaged 61 wins per year and topped out (!) with a 69-93 record, just one better than their ATB XII record.

800 OPS Batters
Rd1-Jimmie Foxx: .262 / .344 / .474, 39 HR, 104 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd3-Roy Campanella: 348 AB, .230 / .287 / .360

Value Draft Pick
Rd19-Doug Jones: 135 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.41 WHIP


ATB XII Statistical Update - Career Leader Boards

Earlier this week I rolled out the single season all time leaders. Today, the career leader boards are ready for release. Here's a summary of the changes

Batting
  • First and foremost, I have removed the year specificity from all career data. In other words, there are no longer two career lines for Mickey Mantle (1956 and 1957) as these have been combined into one.
  • With a great ATB XII campaign, King Kelly moves into second place all time with a .340 AVG
  • With the two seasons of Mickey Mantle 1957 removed (.474 OBP), John McGraw now has the highest career OBP of all time at .455
  • The SLG gap between Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds has been lower to 13 pts (1.074 to 1.061)
  • The All Time home run race tightened up too. Mark McGwire leads at 351, followed by Bonds at 349, and Ruth at 342
  • McGraw is now the all time stolen base king with 448, nine more than Ty cobb


Pitching
  • Similar to Mantle's situation, Randy Johnson had 3 great seasons and ended up leading several categories. Now that his statistical line has combined with several average seasons he no longer rates among the top tier of pitchers.
  • With the removal of Johnson, Pedro Martinez vaults to #1 in ERA, WHIP, K's, and K/9. He also leads in Wins, Quality Starts, IP, and Shutouts.
  • Tex Hughson is now #2 all time with a 2.89 career ERA
  • Reliever ERA's fluctuate greatly from season to season. Our previous #1, Jonathan Papelbon, is now 7th. Frank Killen is top billing with a career 2.20 ERA
  • Joe Neale now leads WHIP with a stellar 0.93.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

LCS Game 4's Complete

One team is a game away from the World Series...

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/LCS_series_ATBXII.htm

Sorry, no writeup tonight - dog obedience school took priority.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

LCS Game 3's Complete

League Champions Series Page

Sonoran Black Diamonds 7, DC Chips 6 (14 Inn)
In a wild game, the Black Diamonds erase a 2 run defect, taking the lead in the bottom of 7th before closer Cla Meredith coughs up a 9th inning game tying home run to pinch hitter Oscar Gamble to tie it. Finally, 5 innings later in the bottom of the 14th Nick Maddox walks home the winning run, a 6 pitch walk to Jim Thome.

Starters Lines
- Conway (DC): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
- Baldwin (SBD): 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Notes
- Jackie Robinson and Tip O'Neill (DC) had 3 hits each
- Joe Neal (DC) technically blew a save, but you can hardly fault him. His line in relief: 6 IP, 1H
- Orator Shaffer (SBD) had two doubles
- Barry Bonds (SBD) homered and had 2 RBI
- The Black Diamonds left 14 men on base.

San Diego Puff 9, Dumai's Wells Oathbinders 0
In his first game back after a long injury, the Oathbinders Noodles Hahn couldn't get out of the second inning, setting up a 9-0 blowout for the Puff. Monty Stratton pitched brilliantly while Sam Thompson tripled twice and drove in 5.

Starters Lines
- Hahn (DWO): 1.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
- Stratton (SDP): 9.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Notes
- Josh Gibson (SDP) homered
- The 2nd through 5th batters had two hits a piece for the Puff
- Reggie Smith (DWO) had two hits
- Jimmy Sheckhard (DWO) had two RBI