Thursday, August 12, 2010

Resim Power Alley - #20, Downsouth Brews

It's that time of year!

In the following days we'll roll out the Re-sim Power Alley countdown to the best team in the league, as judged by 20 the resims. This by no means overshadows the regular season - the ATB Champion is and always will be the best team of the season. However, it is fun to know whether your team was a fluke success or an unexpected failure through dumb luck.

I ran 20 regular season sims and compiled the data to compare teams. Owners had the ability to submit a resim specific lineup and all injuries were turned off.

To make it fair for the playoff teams, I first compiled team level data only (standings, total runs scored, total batting and pitching averages) which was used for the Power Alley rankings. To avoid a conflict of interest, the data is next compiled team by team staring with the lowest ranked. This is to avoid an unfair advantage of seeing or publishing lineup and rotation data for the playoff contenders.
Let the countdown...begin!


#20 - Downsouth Brews
Owner: Allen

The Brews are proof positive of how sample size needs to be considered when analyzing baseball. At the end of May, the Brews had one of the best records in the game, Jimmie Foxx was the runaway MVP winner, and Sandy Koufax looked like the bigger than life MLB version straight out of the 1960s. By the end of the season however, the Brews were dead last with a horrific -175 Run Differential.

Which team was valid? The latter unfortunately. As the data above shows, the Brews had an extremely lucky two months, perhaps the only lucky 2 months in the 21 seasons worth of data we have. The team averaged 61 wins per year and topped out (!) with a 69-93 record, just one better than their ATB XII record.

800 OPS Batters
Rd1-Jimmie Foxx: .262 / .344 / .474, 39 HR, 104 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd3-Roy Campanella: 348 AB, .230 / .287 / .360

Value Draft Pick
Rd19-Doug Jones: 135 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.41 WHIP


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