Tuesday, August 2, 2011

LCS Game 3: Newark wins 1-0 duel; Howard pinch-hit HR in 8th wins it

Slam Dumps 1, Didgeridoos 0
Late in the game in the midst of a pitchers duel, Frank Howard came off the bench to pinch hit and blasted a home run to deep right. It proved to be the game winner and Newark now leads the series 2 games to 1.

Kakadu threatened in the 4th when Lou Gehrig double with one out, but couldn't score on Joe Torre blistering single the next at bat. Newark pitcher Randy Johnson, fresh off the DL, calmed down and struck the last two batters to end the inning. He went on and struck out 7 of the next 10 batters and yielded to the pen with the contest still tied.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 3: Musial returns, triples; now Henderson exits but DC wins 6-4

Chips 6, Gold Country 4
The good news for DC is they are now up 2 games to 1 in the series; the bad news as the day Stan Musial returns to the lineup they lose Rickey Henderson for the next three games. In the 5th it appeared the left fielder came up limping after hitting a lazy fly ball to lef.t

After a rough start for Bobby Shantz (3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER), Lefty Grove and Mariano Rivera held Gold Country scoreless the rest of the games. Ty Cobb drove in two while Musial and Hank Greenberg added two hits and RBI each.

League Championship Series Page

Monday, August 1, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #16, Downsouth Brews

#16 – Downsouth Brews
Owner: Allen
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Pitchers

Third from the bottom in their third year, is the Downsouth Brews Franchise. In ATB XIII the team yielded less than 800 runs per game, ranked a respectable 14th. Their main issue was scoring runs and at 3.8 per game they ranked dead last, and it wasn’t exactly a close run thing. Their team OBP of .306 was 15 points lower than the next worst team. Five regulars had OBP scores below .300.

Noodles Hahn was their best pitcher, and it say something that he average a 14-16 record on a 64 win team. He just missed the cut-off to be honored below: 4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP.

800 OPS Batters
Rd1 – Jimmy Foxx: .263 / .351 / .465, 36 HR, 105 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 9 - Ryne Sandberg: Did not start

Value Draft Pick
Rd 20 – John Franco: 127 IP, 3.97 ERA



20-Resim Reverse Standings
18 - Texas Gringos
17 - Nottingham Outlaws
16 - Downsouth Brews

LCS Game 2: all, Sosa lead Didgeridoos in 6-4 win; series tied

Didgeridoos 6, Slam Dumps 4
Joe Torre and Sammy Sosa's each homered in the 5th, tying the game at five and giving the Didgeridoos shut down pen a chance to keep them in the game after a bad start by Russ Ford. It worked as Newark mustered just two hits and walk after Ford left the game in the third.

The Didgeridoos took the lead for good in the 7th when four out of five singled to lead off the inning. The series moves to Newark for Games 3, 4, and 5.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 2: Rivera blows the 9th; Gossamer pound out 16 hits, win 5-4

Gossamer's 5, Chips 4
The series is tied at 1-1 after a late game come back falls short for DC, and the immortal Mariano Rivera shows he's human after all. Down by 2-runs in the 7th, DC tied the game with a few hits and three walks, the last of which came with the bases loaded.

The comeback was for naught however, as Mariano Rivera, after throwing just pitches in the 8th, lost the game on three straight singles to Fred Clarke, Bobby Murcer, and Sam Jethroe.

Given a choice of starting lefites Doc White (3.42, 12 GS) or Lefty Grove (3.83, 15 GS) the Chips opted for White. He lasted just 3 innings and was pounded for 8 hits and 4 runs. Gossamer's starter Scott Stratton fared a bit better, lasting into 7th giving up 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. He had good stuff though, and struck out 10.

The series now shifts to DC for three.

League Championship Series Page

Sunday, July 31, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #17, Nottingham Outlaws

#17 – Nottingham Outlaws
Owner: Lee W
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Balanced
At 17th, and from across the pond in his first ATB season is Lee W and the Nottingham outlaws. A clear improvement over the Gringos, the Outlaws were still a flawed team ranking 17th in both Runs Scored and Runs Against. However, if all broke right and the stars aligned, this could have been a .500 team as judged by Max Win Potential. (This statistic uses at each team’s best RF and RA over the 20 resims to determine a Pythagorean Winning percentage. Think of this as the arrival of a 100-years storm or a once in a lifetime occurrence.)

During the draft Lee focused heavily on high real life batting average and low real life ERA pitchers, a common oversight for first time ATB’ers. Even worse, he suffered through the Mordecai Brown curse.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1-Hugh Duffy: .821 OPS - .323 / .365 / .456, 41 2B, 102 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 8-Pete Alexander: 11-14, 3.92 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Cap Anson. Did not start.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 16 – Jim Brewer: 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 75 IP

20 Resims Summary - #18, Texas Gringos

It's that time of year!

In the following days we'll roll out the Re-sim Power Alley countdown to the best team in the league, as judged by 20 the resims. This by no means overshadows the regular season - the ATB Champion is and always will be the best team of the season. However, it is fun to know whether your team was a fluke success or an unexpected failure through dumb luck.

I ran 20 regular season sims and compiled the data to compare teams. Owners had the ability to submit a resim specific lineup and all injuries were turned off.

Let the countdown begin!

#18 – Texas Gringos
Owner: Kevin C
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Slight Hitters

This very well might be the worst team in ATB history. I have yet to come across a team with such consistently poor run differentials, routinely running between an absurd -250 and -375. While displaying both poor hitting and pitching, their offense was at lease ranked 15th. However, there pitching staff was the stuff of legends.

Their average starter ERA was 5.48 and the bullpen not much better at 4.83. Two starters – Tom Seaver and Jack Combs – each turned in ERA’s a hair under 6.00. Overall, the Gringos gave up on average almost a thousand runs per game.

800 OPS Batters:
Rd1-Rogers Hornsby: .846 OPS - .318 / .378 / .468, 19 HR, 95 R, 101 RBI
Rd2-Mark McGwire: .826 OPS - .223 / .354 / .471, 46 HR, 117 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd3-Christy Mathewson – 4.80 ERA, 1.54 WHIP

Value Draft Pick
Rd18-Grant Jackson – 4.08 ERA, 46 IP


LCS Game 1 - NSD @ KD

Slam Dumps 5, Didgeridoos 1
Hank Aguirre pitched like an ace in Game 1 of this League Championship Series, tossing a 6 hit complete game, only losing the shutout in the 9th on an infield error.

Newark scored one in the second inning, plating Johnny Mize after a lead off double. The bigger blow came in the 5th when Robin Yount, Sherry Magee, and Harry Heilmann each doubled, scoring two runs.

For Kakadu, Lou Gehrig was contained, being held to a single and two strikeouts and Garland Braxton was on the hook for all 5 runs.

League Championship Series Page

LCS Game1 - DC @ GCG

Chips 6, Gossamers 1
With a 1-run lead at the end of six, the DC Chips took the opener in a game much closer than the final score would indicate. Bob Ojeda continued his improbable run at greatness, pitching into the 8th inning, giving up just 5 hits and a run, before yielding to Mariano River and a 4-out save.

Playing small ball the Chips scored two in the seventh to take a 3-1 lead, and added three more in the last two innings thanks in part to a Todd Helton home run.

Pedro Martinez takes the loss, throwing an average game: 7.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R (3 ER), 2 BB, 3 K

League Championship Series Page

Series Preview - Newark vs Kakadu

The path to the World Series is clear - it will be the Old Guard vs the new. Yesterday we saw DC and Gold Country had a combined 5 years worth of ATB experience, while today's matchup, features a trio of owners with over 25 seasons of drafting to their credit.

Kakadu owner TJ O is one of the founding members of ATB and has owned a team in all thirteen seasons. Having been to the World Series before and coming up short, TJ's goal is nothing short of total victory.

On the other side of the Diamond in Sean S and co-captain Jason S. Between the brothers they have 14 years of individual managerial experience and several more with Jason as his co. Adding to the rivalry of course, is the fact Jason, Sean, and TJ shared a dorm suite through several years of University.

Their similarities end here though. Like many owners, Sean is meticulous in his weekly lineup submissions, often taking advantage of the mid-week lineup rule for the most minor of injuries. TJ, like many other owners, is the exact opposite. He prefers to draft his squad, set general lineup and rotation rules, and let the AI handle the details.

On paper, these two teams are relatively even with Newark holding an advantage in regular season wins and overall run differential. Newark is an offensive powerhouse, scoring 5.3 runs per game, tied for the second best in ATB behind Rusty Kuntz. Their lineup is led by legend Mickey Mantle who put up MVP-type numbers this year, batting .351 / .451 / .528 with 23 HR, 119 R, and 109 RBI. Kakadu will also have to contend with Frank Robinson (40 HR, 143 RBI), Wade Boggs (.396 OBP) and solid corner outfielders in Harry Heilmann and Sherry Magee.

TJ, in past seasons usually a more offensive minded draft strategist, counters with the second best pitching staff in ATB, averaging a team 3.60 ERA bested only by Gold Country. With no elite starting pitcher, it is a strength in numbers approach as the entire playoff rotation averages ERA's between 3.65 and 4.25. The real strength of the team, however, is the bullpen. Dick Hall is an incredible 15-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 195 innings. This is followed by setup man Jason Isringhausen (103 IP, 1.83 ERA) and reliever of the year candidate Jonathan Papelbon (1.58 ERA, 86 IP).

This series pits the strength's of each team against their opponents weaknesses.

Keys to Success - Slam Dumps
  • #3 and #4 Starters - Through an unfortunate injury to ace starter Randy Johnson (12-10, 3.16) in the first round of the playoffs, Sean was forced into shuffling his rotation. Even with Johnson back by game 3 of this round, the effect is still very prominent. In the DCS, #2 starter Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38) started game 7 and isn't available to start on full rest, wouldn't you know it, on Game 3. Johnson could start on 10/17 a day earlier, but it's the off day between games two and three. The unfortunate result is either could start two games this series, but not both. This puts Hank Aguirre (15-11, 4.10) and Teddy Higuera (9-5, 4.32) in a magnified role waiting to be exploited.
  • Closing out the Games - Newark had 20 blown saves during the regular season, the worst figure among playoff teams. It wasn't a single culprit that can be tucked away on the bench either, co-closers Rob Murphy and Rafael Soriano had nine between them and setup men Buddy Groom and Huston Street had ten combined. All season long Sean has searched for an answer to the 9th inning and has settled on a committee approach. If even one game features a blown save, Kakadu will likely win the series. (For posterity, it is interesting to note the Didgeridoos had just 7 blown saves during the regular season, tops in the game.)
Keys to Success - Didgeridoos
  • Lou Gehrig - The first baseman is the only starter on Kakadu with an OPS over .815. As a result, Gehrig is likely the one player on either team that will most impact the outcome of the series. In the DCS he led all batters in home runs and RBI, despite poor play in the latter half of the series. That can't happen against Newark, arguably the second best team in the game judging by Run Differential. Gehrig batted .309 / .396 / .588 this year with 26 doubles, 12 triples, 34 home runs, and 109 RBI. If this Gehrig shows up, Kakadu advances./
  • The Lefties Garland Braxton and Hal Newhouser - Versus righties this season, Newark averaged a slightly better than average .743 OPS. Versus lefties, this number jumps 60 points to .803 (and an incredible .858 in Round 1). Braxton and Newhouser simply can't get blown out and need to keep Kakadu close for 5 innings so the great pen (team 2.69 ERA) can go to work.
Comish Prediction: Had Newark's rotation lined up better I would have picked them to advance to the world series. As it stands however, Sean has some juggling to do and the series has the feeling they are already down 1-0 whole in a 6-game series. Kakadu in 6.

League Championship Series Page