Series Preview - Newark vs Kakadu

The path to the World Series is clear - it will be the Old Guard vs the new. Yesterday we saw DC and Gold Country had a combined 5 years worth of ATB experience, while today's matchup, features a trio of owners with over 25 seasons of drafting to their credit.

Kakadu owner TJ O is one of the founding members of ATB and has owned a team in all thirteen seasons. Having been to the World Series before and coming up short, TJ's goal is nothing short of total victory.

On the other side of the Diamond in Sean S and co-captain Jason S. Between the brothers they have 14 years of individual managerial experience and several more with Jason as his co. Adding to the rivalry of course, is the fact Jason, Sean, and TJ shared a dorm suite through several years of University.

Their similarities end here though. Like many owners, Sean is meticulous in his weekly lineup submissions, often taking advantage of the mid-week lineup rule for the most minor of injuries. TJ, like many other owners, is the exact opposite. He prefers to draft his squad, set general lineup and rotation rules, and let the AI handle the details.

On paper, these two teams are relatively even with Newark holding an advantage in regular season wins and overall run differential. Newark is an offensive powerhouse, scoring 5.3 runs per game, tied for the second best in ATB behind Rusty Kuntz. Their lineup is led by legend Mickey Mantle who put up MVP-type numbers this year, batting .351 / .451 / .528 with 23 HR, 119 R, and 109 RBI. Kakadu will also have to contend with Frank Robinson (40 HR, 143 RBI), Wade Boggs (.396 OBP) and solid corner outfielders in Harry Heilmann and Sherry Magee.

TJ, in past seasons usually a more offensive minded draft strategist, counters with the second best pitching staff in ATB, averaging a team 3.60 ERA bested only by Gold Country. With no elite starting pitcher, it is a strength in numbers approach as the entire playoff rotation averages ERA's between 3.65 and 4.25. The real strength of the team, however, is the bullpen. Dick Hall is an incredible 15-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 195 innings. This is followed by setup man Jason Isringhausen (103 IP, 1.83 ERA) and reliever of the year candidate Jonathan Papelbon (1.58 ERA, 86 IP).

This series pits the strength's of each team against their opponents weaknesses.

Keys to Success - Slam Dumps

• #3 and #4 Starters - Through an unfortunate injury to ace starter Randy Johnson (12-10, 3.16) in the first round of the playoffs, Sean was forced into shuffling his rotation. Even with Johnson back by game 3 of this round, the effect is still very prominent. In the DCS, #2 starter Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38) started game 7 and isn't available to start on full rest, wouldn't you know it, on Game 3. Johnson could start on 10/17 a day earlier, but it's the off day between games two and three. The unfortunate result is either could start two games this series, but not both. This puts Hank Aguirre (15-11, 4.10) and Teddy Higuera (9-5, 4.32) in a magnified role waiting to be exploited.
• Closing out the Games - Newark had 20 blown saves during the regular season, the worst figure among playoff teams. It wasn't a single culprit that can be tucked away on the bench either, co-closers Rob Murphy and Rafael Soriano had nine between them and setup men Buddy Groom and Huston Street had ten combined. All season long Sean has searched for an answer to the 9th inning and has settled on a committee approach. If even one game features a blown save, Kakadu will likely win the series. (For posterity, it is interesting to note the Didgeridoos had just 7 blown saves during the regular season, tops in the game.)
  

Keys to Success - Didgeridoos

• Lou Gehrig - The first baseman is the only starter on Kakadu with an OPS over .815. As a result, Gehrig is likely the one player on either team that will most impact the outcome of the series. In the DCS he led all batters in home runs and RBI, despite poor play in the latter half of the series. That can't happen against Newark, arguably the second best team in the game judging by Run Differential. Gehrig batted .309 / .396 / .588 this year with 26 doubles, 12 triples, 34 home runs, and 109 RBI. If this Gehrig shows up, Kakadu advances./
• The Lefties Garland Braxton and Hal Newhouser - Versus righties this season, Newark averaged a slightly better than average .743 OPS. Versus lefties, this number jumps 60 points to .803 (and an incredible .858 in Round 1). Braxton and Newhouser simply can't get blown out and need to keep Kakadu close for 5 innings so the great pen (team 2.69 ERA) can go to work.

Comish Prediction: Had Newark's rotation lined up better I would have picked them to advance to the world series. As it stands however, Sean has some juggling to do and the series has the feeling they are already down 1-0 whole in a 6-game series. Kakadu in 6.

League Championship Series Page