Thursday, September 27, 2012

Negro League Overview - Starters


This is an ongoing multi-part series on the new ATB Negro Leaguers that will be available in our next draft.  See here for the other parts.

By my estimation 16 or so starting pitchers are good enough to receive regular playing time.  Taking a generalist view that assumes ERA is the best measure of pitcher quality, and that owners draft in the order of ERA, we can estimate where in the rotation a pitcher belongs.  For example, in a 24 team league the starting pitchers with the best 24 ERA’s would all be considered #1 starters, pitchers with the 25th-48th best ERA’s would be #2 starters, and so on.

With this approach, the Negro League player set will add eight spot starters/long relievers, four #3, 4, and 5 starters, and four #1 and 2 starters.

Spot Starters

Of the spot starters and long relievers only Satchel Paige warrants some press.  Paige’s success simply didn’t translate to ATB and while he appears to be a decent pitcher by ATB XIV standards (4.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) this works out to be just the 144th best in the 500-resims.  There is good news for Paige fans though.  In 1940 he only qualified as a reliever and he performed quite well thanks to a 1.14 WHIP and 3.50 ERA.

#3, #4, #5 Starters


Arthur Henderson is the best of the #3, #4, and #5 starters.  There isn’t a perfect comp, but 1905 Ed Reulbach is close enough for our purposes.

#1, #2 Starters

One of the most skilled Negro League pitchers of all time was Nip Winters.  A southpaw with a mighty fastball, Winters went 18-4 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the 1922-1923 seasons.  He recorded several other very good seasons but alcoholism and a perceived lack of trying helped shorten his career.  He retired at the age of 33 with a lifetime winning percentage of .678.

In the 500-resims Winters ranks an indisputable  although distant, 3rd behind only Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux.  He put up a 3.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 212 innings per season.

Yesterday we saw how great of a reliever Red Ryan is, and it turns out he’s a pretty good starter too.  His 1923-1924 season looks a lot like 1946 Tex Hughson.

2 comments:

  1. Lou, this is completely crazy, the game will be completely different between a new Top 3 pitcher and a new Top 3 hitter .... just when I half way figured out the old way :)

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  2. We don't want anyone getting complacent Brian! A true goal of mine is to try and introduce a new wrinkle every year.

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