Monday, October 15, 2012

500 Resims Data and a Commissioner's Challenge


The 500 Resim Data  has been fully compiled and can be downloaded here.

For kicks, here is my All Time great ATB team.  In other words, this is the ultimate team, the one that I would draft if enjoying free reign to chose at will.

#1 - John McGraw, 3B
#2 - Ross Barnes, 2B
#3 - Babe Ruth, DH
#4 - Mickey Mantle, CF
#5 - Barry Bonds, LF
#6 - Lou Gehrig, 1B
#7 - Willie Wells, SS
#8 - Larry Walker, RF
#9 - King Kelly C

SP 1 - Pedro Martinez
SP 2 - Greg Maddux
SP 3 - Nip Winters
SP 4 - Walter Johnson

CL - Dennis Eckersley
SE - Red Ryan
SE - Gabe White

This was more difficult to compile than I expected.  It is fairly simple to figure out who the best hitters are at each position, but constructing a balanced lineup that won't be eaten alive by a lefty pitcher (and one that my pitchers won't resent due to poor defense) is another story.

There are of course a few must haves.  Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Babe Ruth are clearly better than everyone else at their respective positions and I couldn't justify even considering the likes of Ted Williams, Turkey Stearns, Norm Cash, and others.  These bashers present two issues that impacted the rest of my draft strategy.  First, they are all average or below average defenders which means I have to cover this flaw up elsewhere   Second, my best three hitters are all lefties, limiting my tolerance for other plodding lefties up and down the lineup.

Their are only a handful fo .400+ on-base guys in the infield and I grabbed as many as I could.  Batting first and stealing 65+ bases will be John McGraw.  This is a bit controversial, as George Brett is frankly a better all around player.  But his OBP of .355 pales in comparison to McGraw's .434 and for this squad, the ability to get on base is more important than the 40 point loss in overall OPS.

At second I had to make an excruciating decision.  Fred Dunlap and Ross Barnes are virtually identical and any team would be lucky to have them.  Dunlap hits for more power (50 doubles and 19 home runs!) but gives away a nominal 10 points in OBP.  More importantly, I am taking Barnes' Ex range over Dunlap's Vg. (Secondarily, we have seen over the past seasons that Barnes is the better hitter, and part of me wants to believe that regardless of what the 500 resims show).

With Ruth batting third, few opportunities will come to my clean-up hitter,  Mickey Mantle.  Let me be blunt - Oscar Charleston is a better player. He hits for a higher average, gets on base more, has more power, and is better on the bases.  But he's also a lefty while Mantle is the only elite right handed outfielder in all of ATB (well, he is switch hitter but you get the point).  While not the traditional cleanup hitter he does bat 4th to break up a string of lefties, pushing Bonds and Gehrig back a spot to 5th and 6th.

Batting 7th is shortstop Willie Wells who had a  phenomenal 500 resims, batting .277 / .351 / .490 with superb defense.  The previous de facto #1 shortstop, Honus Wagner, was almost as good but falls short of Wells in all meaningful categories except batting average.

Incredibly, Larry Walker is my starting right fielder.  Ruth is too poor in the field to hide, especially with generally lackluster fielding all around, so Walker with Ex/33 skills gets my stamp of approval.  Another option was Orator Shaffer who has a 30 point edge in on base but features only and average error rate on defense.

Finally, batting 9th and catching is good ol' King Kelly.  At this point after the 1800s reset of last season Bill Dickey may be better as thanks to a 100 points edge in slugging, but again this team has plenty of power so I'll take the 35 points in on-base instead.  It also gives a potent 9-1-2 on-base machine as the lineup turns over.

Pitching wise, the choices are a lot simpler.  Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux have always and will always be the best two starters.  Newcomer Nip Winters is a lefty, and a cut-above Randy Johnson thanks to a 1.07 WHIP and garners the #3 starter role.

4th starter is problematic as there are plenty of options.  Another lefty in Randy Johnson or Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Bill Bernhard, Al Orth, Babe Adams or Walter Johnson?  With the lowest WHIP of the bunch, I chose Walter.

My relief corps is led by Dennis Eckersley, Red Ryan, and lefty Gabe White.  I initially slated Mariano Rivera for setup, but Ryan had a slightly worse defense behind him which ultimately swayed my decision.  His 0.84 WHIP made it a bit easier to overlook Rivera's aura.

Now the challenge.  For the handful of off-season blog readers, feel free to send me your best 25 man rosters and I'll pit them against each other an a 162 game season.  This is purely for fun of course, only the basic stats will be maintained and distributed.

If interested drop me a email or post in the comments.  I am particularly interested if a more defensive minded team could beat this squad.  I rather think they couldn't, as any edge in defense must be offset by several hundred points in OPS, right?

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