Fear Not ATB'ers, the Deck Was Inadvertently Stacked Against Us

Frustrated with ATB's poor performance in the Tournament of Champions I felt the need to investigate why we had won only 1 of 12 contests to date.

Heading into the tournament, three things were stacked against us:

1. We had 24 teams, while LOB  had 20.  This dilutes the ATB squads in relation to LOB
2. LOB has a entire player set of Negro Leaguers while we had 3-5
3. ATB has much stricter eligibility requirements for AB/IP.  This allows even more players into LOB.

Given this, the deck was stacked against us.  But winning just 1 of 12!!!  Something wasn't sitting right with me so I did what I always do in times of crisis - sim!

I dumped all teams from both LOB and ATB into one brand new league, created a balanced schedule, and assigned all squads to a neutral park.  The results were striking.

I compared only players (of the same year) that appeared on rosters in both leagues and found the LOB'ers to have a major advantage in both OPS and ERA.  Meaning, the 1994 Jeff Bagwell's, 1912 Home Run Baker's, 1985 John Tudors, etc all simply were better when placed on an LOB team instead of an ATB team.

Of these players, the average LOB OPS was .732 versus only a .706 OPS for ATB.  The average LOB ERA was 3.49 vs 3.72 for ATB.

After a bit of discussion with LOB Commissioner Tom Austin we realized that the ATB method of entering players is different than our method.  In LOB, DMB published disks are used whenever possible.  When they aren't available, players are created using 10-year ballpark averages (I am not sure on the era they use).

Since DMB mainly publishes post 1927 disks, I used this as a cut-off in refining the study.  I found the differences even more pronounced.

Batters

Post 1927- .721 OPS vs .707 OPS

Pre 1927 - .752 OPS vs .702 OPS

That is incredible.  LOB Pre 1927 batters have a 50 point advantage over ATB while the post 1927 players fared similarly.

Pitchers

Post 1927- 3.45 ERA vs 3.65 ERA

Pre 1927 - 3.74 ERA vs 4.17 ERA

Again, the 1927 cut-off makes a marked difference. And basically it is not possible for ATB to defeat LOB in the tournament.  

Not that this matters, I am having a blast getting to know some of the LOB'ers and the main purpose was to give each of our league's a chance at growing and getting better.  We'll work on amended rules for the next tournament, and in the meantime hope for a 2004 Dave Roberts type moment to keep our hopes alive.