Five Questions About the Upcoming Draft - Batters

Our draft is a little over a month away - it appears the 7th will work for the most people - so it's not too early to speculate on how the new Negro League players might fit in, or how, in general, people may tend to draft armed with the 500 resim data.

Here's a view of last season top draft picks along with their 500 resim results.  For our purposes today, let's focus entirely on batters.

No real surprises above, though, Double XX remains a top-10 pick for some reason.  Judging by the resims a few questions come to mind:

1. First and foremost, where will Oscar Charleston be selected?  Charleston is the best of the Negro League batters, putting up remarkable numbers in the 500 re-sims:  .338 / .442 / .625, 1.067 OPS.  That's roughly equivalent to Barry Bonds or Lou Gehrig, the 3rd and 5th round picks last season.  Add in Ex/55 defense (with a Vg arm) and Charleston has a shot to go #1, especially if a defensive minded owner gets the first pick.  It will be difficult, however, to forego Babe Ruth's .474 OBP and 175 walks.
2. Have we settled the Barry Bonds question?  Perhaps.  Bonds '04 (.609 OBP year) simmed to a 1.086 OPS, Bonds '01 (73 home run year) had a 1.086 as well, and Bonds '02 (.370 year) came in with 1.079.  Incredibly close.  '04 and '02  give up about 15 home runs for the sake of 30 points in on base.  Given that Bonds rates above average defensively only in 2004 he will likely be the preferable choice from here on out.
3. Who will be the first infielder taken?  It's almost always Lou Gehrig, but last season Rogers Hornsby went right after him and he's arguably the 3rd best second basemen in the draft.  Ross Barnes (.913 OPS, Ex/124 defense) and Fred Dunlap (.940 OPS, Vg/111 defense) may finally vault ahead of the Iron Man this season.
4. What of the other great Negro Leaguer's?  Three come to mind.  First up is Heavy Johnson, a plodding right fielder who is likely going to be an ATB DH. Johnson's 1922-1923 campaign simmed best (.317 / .364 / .585 with 48 2B, 16 3B, and 31 HR) and he's basically a souped up version of Stan Musial, at least at the plate.  He's still not quite as good as Ted Williams, a Top-10 pick who often DH's.  Given that, it's entirely plausible Johnson sneaks into the top-10.  Second up is outfielder Turkey Stearns.  Unlike Johnson, Stearns plays well above average defense but isn't quite the hitter.  His 1926-27 season features a .331 OBP and .578 SLG (in the resims) while his 1929-30 season comes in at .368 and .528.  I don't think his top-10, but he's certainly better than Joe DiMaggio who went 15th last season.  Finally, I can't wait to see where Willie Wells go's.  Honus Wagner went 12th overall last season and scored an .809 OPS in the 500 resims.  Wells scored an .843 OPS and plays just as good defense (Ex/79).
5. Some players we just can't figure out, which year is best for them?  We've tried 7 Mike Schmidt season, 6 Alex Rodriguez's, 5 Ty Cobb's, and 4 David Ortiz's.  Several others have 4 or 5 as well, but let's stick to the most popular.  We've gotten Schmidt right, last season's 1981 selection is easily the best for him (by 80 points of OPS).  The same is true for Cobb as his 1917 is 50 OPS points better than 1910.  Alex Rodriguez's 2007 season has the best OPS, but one has to live with a .226 average; therefore 1996 with 13 less points in OPS but 50 points in batting average may be more attractive.  Ortiz wasn't even drafted last year, but his 2007 year resulted in a .775 OPS (.342 OBP, .443 SLG) is easily top-10 round material

There are dozen's of other questions as well, these werew merely the first five that popped into my head.  Next up, the pitchers, where we'll discuss whether or not Nip Winters cracks the 1st round.