Draft Analysis - Part I

With the conclusion of Sim 3 we officially passed the ¼ mark of the ATB Season. Each year, we take a look back on the draft and see which players were steals, which were busts and some of those in between. With 700+ players drafted it makes little sense to write about each of them, and instead we’ll focus on a few key contributors (or non-contributors). Fear not however, as ATB tradition demands, no stone is left unturned and we’ll at least provide statistical summarizations for each player drafted that will highlight the bargains and disasters.

To analyze each player, I broke their results down into tiers based upon their Runs Created or Runs Saved scores. The tiers were:

Excellent – Blue
Very Good – Bright Green
Good – Dark Green
Yellow – OK
Orange – Poor
Red – Very Poor

Gems of the Draft
We have several. The latest player taken that can still be considered “good” was 1990 Zane Smith, drafted by John McDonald in the 28th round. Smith has pitched 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA. Along the same lines, just a round earlier, Joe Neale of the Windy City Potato Pocketers has a 1.88 ERA in 28.2 innings of work.

If you prefer truly elite players, Frank Killen is your man. Killen is one of the few bright spots on the otherwise woeful Otherton Fish Biscuits. An 18th rounder, the reliever/spot starter has yielded a 1.13 ERA in 56 innings for the last place Biscuits. One has to wonder how long it will last however. Otherton is running with a 3-man rotation and Killen has no starter rating, meaning his arm is about to fall off. He joined the rotation on May 6th and lasted into the 7th inning, giving up no runs. Since then, his innings pitched have fallen off precipitously:

Start 1 – 6.0 IP
Start 2 – 4.0 IP
Start 3 – 5.0 IP
Start 4 – 3.1 IP
Start 5 – 4.2 IP
Start 6 – 2.2 IP with just 11 batters faced.

The resurgent Planet 10 has the honor of both the latest drafted “very good” and “good” players. Jose Rijo, their 18th rounder, has a 2.44 ERA in 55.1 IP and their 19th rounder, Fritz Peterson, has maintained a 2.74 ERA in 9 starts while holding opponents to a .230 batting average.

You’ve likely noticed no batter has made these lists, further proof that it is much simpler to find hidden pitcher than batter bargains. In fact, looking at those players tagged as Good, Very Good, or Excellent there are 19 pitchers selected late in the draft before we get to the first batter, Dwight Evans of Willets Point.

Busts of the Draft
Unequivocally, Randy Johnson, another Fishbiscuit, has been a disaster and the most disappointing player in ATB XI. Taken as the 9th overall pick, Johnson is 2-12 with a 4.67 ERA and is on pace to give up 40 home runs. Lefty batters are somehow batting .312 off him while his WHIP is 1.43. The Fishbiscuit 3-man rotation isn’t working out very well for the 6’10” lefty.

The 6th overall pick, Hugh Duffy of the Downsouth Brews, has just a .726 OPS, tied for 93rd best in the league among qualified. Worse still, Roger Connor from Old Pete’s Rabble, taken just two picks later has a .584 OPS though his .252 batting average is at least somewhat respectable.

Two other players stick out like a dog’s cojones – Lou Brock and Ron Guidry. Brock, another Brew from Downsouth has the lowest OPS I have ever seen at .328. The game engine actually displays his isolated power as a negative number and the poor outfielder has no extra base hits in over 100 plate appearances. Guidry, almost as bad for the Edinburgh Caber Tossers, turns all right handed batters into Tip O’Neil as they are collectively batting .338 / .392 / .562 off of the lefty. His ERA is 7.61 and has just 3 Quality Starts in 9 chances. Both Brock and Guidry were 3rd round picks.

First Round Summary
No draft review could be considered complete without a rundown of the most important picks of the draft – the first rounders.


Each of the Top-5 picks are performing extremely well, along with 10th pick Rogers Hornsby, 15th pick Tip O’Neill, 17th pick Albert Pujols, and 20th pick Ty Cobb.’

Even though they are in yellow, Honus Wagner and Arky Vaughan are likely still worth 1st Round choices due to their great defense in key positions; and Ted Williams has played extremely well but has collected only 100 plate appearances due to two freak injuries.

We haven’t mentioned Dan Brouthers, Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx, Walter Johnson, and Nap Lajoie, all of whom are struggling, but have track records that should provide hope to their owners that a turn-around is at least possible if not probable.

That leaves Fred Dunlap and Hack Wilson. Dunlap has been schizophrenic this year batting .329 / .379 / .494 in May but just .237 / .321 / .247 in April. As it’s the second baggers first season in ATB, nobody knows which his true level of play is.

Wilson is a bit more problematic. A teller mine for unsuspecting rookie owners, Wilson shall be called the “batting Mordecai Brown” forthwith.

Two months of play are meaningful, but not completely so, and as the dog days of summer wind down, we’ll take a look at the draft again in Part II.