The playoffs begin this Sunday. With the Mossback races officially no longer in doubt, now is a great time to preview the match-ups. First up, the 2 vs 3 game.
Pitching
In one of the more exciting match-ups of the post season, the 90 win (projected) Fanclub squad led by Jason B squares off agains the 97 win (projected) Oathbinders, owned by the comissioner Lou P.
If you enjoy a pitchers duel the series promises to be exciting. By all objective measurements, these two pitching staffs rank 1st and 2nd in all of ATB, admittedly with John McDonald owning a measurable advantage. These two clubs are ranked 1st and 2nd in ERA, RCER, CERA, and HR/9 as well as top 3 in WHIP and K/BB, and the Fanclub ranking better than the Oathbinders in all but K/BB.
Among qualifed starters (more than 20 starts) the Oathbinders rate very highly, but top to bottom their pitching staff pales in comparison to John McDonald. The Oathbinder ace, Harry Brecheen (15-5, 2.01 ERA), sports the best ERA in baseball. Their number 2, Babe Adams (19-7, 2.85) leads the league in wins and has the 8th best ERA. Finally, their number 3 Noodles Hahn (16-11, 3.06 ERA) has the 10th best ERA.
The Fanclub counter with four starters that have ERA's between 2.30 and 2.63. The "worst" of the bunch is only the best pitcher in ATB history, Pedro Martinez. Here's their list of starters and ERAs
2.33 - George Bradley
2.33 - Mort Cooper
2.44 - Tex Hughson
2.63 - Pedro Martinez
The Oathbinders #4 for the series will be Rube Waddell (8-9, 3.89 ERA).
Both bullpens are evenly matched, with average closers and very strong role players in the setup and long relief roles. John McDonald closes with an average Mike Timlin (4.02) ERA but have had great success with Kaz Sasaki (0.75 ERA in 19 IP), Dan Quisenberry (2.95 ERA), and Ted Abernathy (3.15 ERA).
The Oathbinders pen features a dual closer effect with Mariano Rivera (3.69 ERA) stopping against righties and Billy Wagner (4.08) versus lefties. Setup man Bruce Sutter (1.83 ERA) has been lights out with Steve Mingori (2.92 ERA) and late season pick up Troy Percival (3.27 ERA) perform well too.
Offense
While the lower seeded Fanclub have the edge off the mound, the Oathbinders have the clear advantage on offense. They currently sit #2 in runs scored with 813, while John McDonald is 19th with 629. As a team, the Oathbinders bat .277 / .353 / .400, with a .753 OPS, 127 HR's and 114 SB. Th Fanclub bat .266 / .333 / .366, for a .699 OPS, 119 HR, and 140 SB.
With 28 HR and 103 RBI, first basemen Norm Cash leads the lineup for John McDonald. He is batting .308 / .402 / .495 in 153 games. The rest of the lineup is fairly week though, as no remaining starter has an OPS over .750.
The Oathbinders counter with three starters and two other platoon's of .750 or greater OPS scores. Third Basemen George Brett (.859 OPS) is having a banner year against rigthies - .359 / .416 / .557; as a team, the Oathbinders hit about 89 OPS points better against righties then lefties.
Defense
If the Oathbinders are better on offense and Fanclub better on the mound, perhaps defense will be the deciding factor. Here, John McDonald is #2 in the league with a .982 Fpct against the 9th ranked Oathbinders at .977. As a team, the Fanclub also have a much greater range and their catchers give up the stolen base just 64.7 percent of the time vs 71.4 perecent for the Oathbinders.
Ballparks
The Oathbinders get 4 games at the Metrodome (1984) where left handed batters hit for power all around (100 / 126 / 216 / 114). This suits their left handed hitting lineup very well. Righties have singles and homer suppressed significantly (92 / 90) while doubles and triples increase immensely (132 / 216). The Oathbinders have 51 home wins, best in baseball.
Three games can be played at 1967 Shea Stadium, home of the Fanclub. Shea is an average ballpark with 5 of the 6 possible scores coming in at 99 or 100. Only doubles vs lefties are ever so slightly inflated. The Fanclub are +5 wins at home, and +8 on the road.
Prediction
John McDonald Fanclub in 6. Up against the backdrop of an average ballpark (as opposed to a pitchers park) it drives home how good the Fanclub’s pitching staff really is. Their team ERA is 3.02, easily the best mark in the game. Coupled with stellar defense, the Oathbinders will have a hard time getting on the basebaths. Head to Head, the Oathbinders enjoyed a slight advantage during the regular season (10-8).
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