The other Mossback Division Series is a matchup between the 103-59 (Projected) Lusitania Death Speakers and the 86-76 San Diego Puff. On paper, the Puff have very little chance to win the series except pinning their chances on the age old adage "anything can happen in a short series".
Pitching
A common theme in short series upsets is a stud pitcher for the underdog. Brad P's Puff do have a very good pitcher in Scott Sratton, currently 9th in the league in ERA, with a 13-9 record. Stud is a valid word too, in 185 innings he has given up just 160 hits and has struck out 181. Unfortunately, the balance of the Puff rotation is about average or worse:
3.81 ERA - Tim Lincecum
3.94 ERA - Cliff Melton
4.48 ERA - Brandon Webb
5.13 ERA - Mike Mussina
In years past, Brad has not hesitated to run a middle reliever out to start the game. Doug Corbett (128 IP, 3.16 ERA) might get the call this season.
Mike S, owner and operator of Lusitania, and he counters with:
Bill Bernhard (15-9, 3.50)
Andy Pettitte (13-8, 3.63)
Johnny Podres (12-7, 4.41)
Kevin Milwood (16-7, 5.16)
Hank Aguirre made 14 regular season starts and pitched very well, to the tune of a 3.20 ERA. It will be interesting to see how Mike arranges his playoff rotation - is Aguirre in or out?
The Death Speakers also own a significant edge in bullpen depth. Closing games is top notch reliever Jeff Zimmerman (1.45 ERA) while Huston Street (1.64 ERA) and Jim Poole (1.94 ERA) handle the setup work. Even long reliever Jeff Gray is one of the best in the business.
Opposite them, the Puff have an elite closer of their own in Dennis Eckersley (2.22 ERA), but quickly lose the depth to match Lusitania. Jason Isringhausen (2.82 ERA) has had the best year among the middle relievers and Doug Corbett, Rob Murphy (3.78 ERA), and Lindy McDaniel (4.23 ERA) are relied upon heavily.
Offense
The Death Speakers have the number one offense in the league, and it's almost entirely due to their ability to get on base. As a team their OBP is .385, over 30 points higher than the next best team, Dumai's Wells. By measure of ISO, they have the least power in the game but it hasn't mattered as their league leading 5.4 runs scored per game can attest.
Their two stars are catcher King Kelly and left fielder Ted Williams. Kelly is easily the best catcher in the game this year batting .352 / .442 / .444 while Ted Williams, who struggled in the first half, has come on strong of late, leading the team in SLG, OPS, HR, Runs, RBI, and Runs Created since the break.
The San Diego Puff counter with the 7th ranked offense. With a well above average slugging percentage and batting average, the Puff are also second to none in team stolen bases, leading the league with 333 total. By seasons end four players - Ty Cobb (70), Frank Baker (60), Sherry Magee (54), and George Sisler (49) will have topped 50 swipes on the season.
Sam Thompson has been very good this season too, leading the team with a .497 slugging thanks to 23 doubles and 18 triples. Their second basemen, Derrek Lee who has been playing “out of position” has 30 home runs.
A view of their team totals highlights their differences:
LDS: .305 / .385 / .392, .72 HR, 5.4 RC/27, 5.4 R/G
SDP: .292 / .339 / .422, 114 HR, 4.9 RC/27, 5.0 R/G
Defense
During the regular season the Death Speakers "A" lineup featured of 7 out of 8 defenders with Vg or better range. However, in the past month, they lost Ex defending Ezra Sutton for the remainder of the year. It’s a crucial injury too, no other player on the squad is rated to play third base and as a result, someone will have to play out of position, likely Willie Randolph or Nellie Fox.
The Puff counter with 7 Vg or better defenders of their own, but fall short again with just 1 Ex rated player vs the Death Speakers 3. Their team fielding percentages are a wash (.977 and .976) and overall, we'll give the Death Speakers a slight advantage.
Ballparks
Lusitania calls 1908 Palace of the Fans home, a large park that moderately inflates singles, doubles and triples but reduces home runs by 18 percent. They are tied with Dumai’s Wells for the best home record in the game.
The Puff play their games in 1949 Sportsman’s Park, a more extreme version of the Palace of the Fans. Home runs are reduced by about 15%, but singles, doubles and triples occur at a much higher rate – approximately 10%, 13%, and 23% more often than average respectively.
Prediction
The Death Speakers are the best team in the league and will be difficult to beat. Head to head they made quick work of the Puff during the regular season, winning 12 of 18 (.667 Wpct). Lusitania in 5.
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