100 Sim Results - Closers

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for all of the batters, here is the link to the review section of the blog and another for the full detail for each position.

We finally arrive at a glamorous pitching position and frankly, it lives up to expectation. Of all the elite closers in the games history – Eck, Mo, Gagne, Hoffman, Wagner, Smoltz, Goose*, and more – 2006 Jonathan Papelbon simmed the best, and by a healthy margin.

*Here is another example of ATB caveat emptor -untested is Goose’s 1981 campaign which promises to be of major interest to owners on draft day. Be ware of this fact and don't relegate Goose down on your draft board!

At 2.37, Papelbon had the lowest ERA of any pitcher in the simulations and was in the Top 10 in WHIP. His defense was Vg’s across the board, which sounds impressive, but based upon the way I chose players, it was about average fielding team behind him. He gave up just 60 hits in 72 innings and struck out 56 batters.

As a matter of personal pride, I am also proud to announce that 2008 Marioano Rivera has been vindicated as a top reliever choice. Long have I thought this was his best season, but over the past few years the ATB results have not born this out. Rivera was a little more hittable than Papelbon, but his low walk rate resulted in a significantly lower WHIP. His final line: 2.64 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 81 IP, 74 H, 17 BB, 61 K.

Nine others had ERA’s at 3.00 or better with 2006 Joe Nathan the best of them – 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.

The disappointments were a relative matter only. The worst closer was 1995 Jose Mesa who turned in a solid 4.23 ERA.


01) 72 IP,, 2.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP-Jonathan Papelbon-2006
02) 81 IP,, 2.64 ERA, 1.13 WHIP-Mariano Rivera-2008
03) 68 IP,, 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP-Joe Nathan-2006
04) 75 IP,, 2.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP-Eric Gagne-2003
05) 79 IP,, 2.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP-Dennis Eckersley-1990
06) 72 IP,, 2.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP-Billy Wagner-1999
07) 75 IP,, 2.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP-Tug McGraw-1980
08) 92 IP,, 2.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP-Bruce Sutter-1977
09) 114 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP-J.J. Putz-2007
10) 69 IP,, 3.00 ERA, 1.26 WHIP-Takashi Saito-2007
11) 76 IP,, 2.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP-B.J. Ryan-2006
12) 93 IP,, 3.18 ERA, 1.3 WHIP-Andrew Bailey-2009
13) 50 IP,, 3.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Robb Nen-2000
14) 65 IP,, 3.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP-Armando Benitez-2004
15) 85 IP,, 3.41 ERA, 1.32 WHIP-Doug Jones-1997
16) 116 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP-John Smoltz-2003
17) 47 IP,, 3.37 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Mike Jackson-1998
18) 106 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Tim Burke-1987
19) 68 IP,, 3.41 ERA, 1.34 WHIP-Joakim Soria-2008
20) 84 IP,, 3.76 ERA, 1.34 WHIP-Bryan Harvey-1993
21) 91 IP,, 3.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP-Rollie Fingers-1981
22) 64 IP,, 3.77 ERA, 1.52 WHIP-Trevor Hoffman-1998
23) 106 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.4 WHIP-Jim Brewer-1972
24) 63 IP,, 3.78 ERA, 1.59 WHIP-Ugueth Urbina-1998
25) 95 IP,, 4.23 ERA, 1.51 WHIP-Rich Gossage-1977
26) 85 IP,, 3.94 ERA, 1.52 WHIP-John Wetteland-1993
27) 88 IP,, 4.26 ERA, 1.52 WHIP-Jeff Montgomery-1989
28) 150 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.55 WHIP-John Hiller-1973
29) 35 IP,, 4.18 ERA, 1.58 WHIP-Brad Lidge-2004
30) 68 IP,, 4.23 ERA, 1.58 WHIP-Jose Mesa-1995

Looking at the entire player pool of true relievers the top 10 looks like:

2006 Papelbon
2008 Rivera
2006 Nathan
2003 Gagne
2000 White
1990 Eckersley
1890 Neale
1999 Wagner
1980 McGraw
2007 Betancourt