Draft Day Extravaganza - Round 2

Yesterday’s review of Round 1 revealed an awesome factoid – 90% of the players were drafted in each of the five years we looked at. Further, considering Tip O’Neill was only eligible three years ago and was drafted in the first round three times, we can logically conclude he would have been a 5 for 5 guy as well. This means 19 of the possible 20 players were all drafted in the first round five years in a row. Either our ownership base is incredibly smart or we are stuck in our ways, leaving value on the table to fall into Round 2.

Contrarily, only 30% of the Round 2 average selections were drafted five years running in the round. Also, on average only 3 pitchers are drafted in all of Round 2. Lets start with here.

Round 2 Pitchers
In the heart of Round 2 – picks 11 though 13 – three pitchers are drafted back to back to back on average. 1908 Addie Joss and 1915 Petey Alexander are two very good pitchers, especially Joss who averages a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Joss’ 100 sim results likely make him a legit first rounder, at least entering the argument of replacing Christy Mathewson. Cheating and looking at the third round, Alexander, while maybe a fine 2nd Round Pick, is certainly going to soon compared with other pitchers such as Babe Adams and Al Orth.

Each year the real life great Sandy Koufax gets drafted in the second round. Each year he is a disappointment. I should have thought to include him in the 100 resims and unfortunately we don’t have a baseline for him. He’s a risk if you want to gamble on him.

Underrated 2nd Rounders

Four players stand out as possible grab picks – selections where you can jump on the player earlier than normal but assured of top performance.

George Brett 1980 is the best third basemen in the game and is a fine early second round pick. Due to his Vg defense, a strong case can be made that he is best suited as a first rounder. Contrarily Jeff Bagwell 1994 likely takes a hit as a result of the resims. Long thought a top-3 first basemen, Bagwell struggled in the all important OBP department, though, he has been confirmed as an elite home run threat.

1961 Norm Cash on the other hand looks like a first round pick seen through the eyes of the 100 Resims. His .838 OPS and .388 OBP should make him a trendy pick – he’s better than Jimmie Foxx and Mark McGwire, both first rounders year in and year out.

1886 King Kelly is another interesting case. He is clearly the best catcher in the game (Gibson has a .768 OPS but a poor .316 OBP) but will his .380 SLG prevent him from moving up the draft boards? Originally I thought the 100 resims would reveal a clear first round option for Kelly, now I am not so sure.

Round 2 Outfielders

Clearly the quality of outfielders in Round 2 pales in comparison to their brethren of Round 1. There are no .800 OPS players to be found and only 1 with an OPS over .775. What immediately stares out at yo is the lack of good OBP players. There is plenty of power – McCovey, Mays, and Walker each hit 27 or more, but none have an OBP better than .330.

That leaves the weaker power players such as Duffy, Shoeless Joe, both of whom get on base at a decent enough clip but hit for little power. Joe DiMaggio and Rickey Henderson try to split the difference while Hack Wilson is just flat out bad.

McCovey ends up the best power hitter and Shoeless Joe the best of the doubles men. Jackson should move up in the rankings while Wilson should fall off completely.

Rd 2 - Infielders

Fred Dunlap (1884) ended up being a top-2 second basemen. As we saw yesterday, Hornsby rightfully goes early in round 1 (pick 9) but Nap Lajoie (.718 OPS) is normally a late first rounder too. Dunlap is just as good defensively and outhits Lajoie by 30 OPS points. Perhaps Dunlap is correctly positioned as an early second round pick, but Nap needs to come down a few notches.

And then a few notches more. 1914 Eddie Collins is a better defender than Nap and also has an OBP 40 points better. It’s clear Lajoie has historically been drafted much too early.

Albert Pujols(2008) and Jason Giambi (2001) offer two options for owners. Giambi is the better hitter, almost entirely due to his ability to draw a walk, but is bad enough on defense to be forced to play DH. Do you want a DH as a 2nd rounder? If the answer is no, owners gravitated toward Pujols – a 20 home run threat with an above average OBP.

The last pick of the second round, and 2 of the past 5 years dropping all the way into the 4th round, is John McGraw. This confounds me. The ability to get on base (sorry purists!) is the single most important aspect of a players repertoire. McGraw gets on base at a .45% clip, third best in all of ATB. He also steals 76 bases a year and is tied for 6th in batting average. Maybe this is the year he starts to get drafted early.

Tomorrow we’ll finish up with Round 3.

* Please note I have incorrectly listed Willie McCovey as an outfielder, he's a first basemen.