Draft Day Extravaganza - Round 3

Round 3 is where pitching catches up offense. For our purposes, we’ve extended Round 3 to 25 players in order to account for the variety year over year. More than half of the draftees were pitchers, a far cry from the three taken in Round 2.

The average results categorize the starting pitchers into a few neat and tidy groupings. The first group of three is drafted, on average between 38th and 39th picks:

Johan Santana (2004) and Hal Newhouser (1945 & 46) have similar ERA’s but be wary of the 1.48 WHIP from Newhouser. In the 100 sims he yielded more hits than innings pitched but kept the home runs to a respectable amount, allowing his ERA to float under 4.00. Santana gave up 20+ homers on average, and despite a decent WHIP, saw his ERA float above 4.00. Cy Blanton is also an owner favorite in the third round, having been drafted 3 times in the past 5 years in this slot. Blanton didn’t show up well on my pre-draft board and wasn’t included in the 100 sim study. He had a 4.97 ERA last year but historically performs much better, averaging a 3.77 RCERA in the last 7 years.

Sticking with pitchers a little longer, the next group was drafted a little bit later, with average picks 41 and 42.5:
1997 Roger Clemens showed up best on the draft board but doesn’t live up to expectations. His 1.52 WHIP should prevent him from being a 3rd rounder. 1985 John Tudor is of the same ilk of Santana and Newhouser, while 1919 Babe Adams is a real gem. Averaging a flat draft slot of the 10th pick of Round 3, Adams 3.64 ERA and 1.25 WHIP approaches the success of first Rounder Walter Johnson. It would be a travesty if he continues to fall into the third round or later – his recent draft history:

ATB XII – Last pick of Round 3 (Lou)
ATB XI - early 4th round (Lou)
ATB X – early 5th round (Justin)
ATB IX – Late 3rd round (Jason S)
ATB VIII – 2nd round by the PC (Lou draft board)

At the risk of coming across arrogant, those are historically very good owners who have received 1st round value in the 3rd and sometimes 5th rounds – don’t let it happen again!

Taking a break from the hurlers and moving onto the batters, we start with a trio of first basemen, 1920 Goerge Sisler, 1938 Hank Greenberg, and 1886 Dan Brouthers.

What immediately pops out is how good Brouthers is, pumping out OPS scores better than 2nd rounders Albert Pujols and Jason Giambi, and comparable to 1st Rounders Jimmie Foxx, Mark McGwire, and Jeff Bagwell. He’s the real deal.

Sisler ends up surprisingly bad, though, his Ex defense is very important. Greenberg was overlooked by my pre-draft rating system but did belt 18 dingers in 149 games last year.

Next are three third basemen, one of whom is not like the others.

1953 Al Rosen and Eddie Mathews of a year later are both solid picks with OPS scores close to .750. Neither get on base at a great clip and Mathews .223 batting average is only slightly mollified by his Vg defensive rating. 1966 Dick Allen is a disappointment, his 27 home runs a big plus, but his .293 OBP simply unacceptable. Maybe 1972 is the best choice for him.

Moving to the outfield we find another gem in 1925 negro league star, Oscar Charleston. The speedy center fielder hits for moderate power and a decent on base percentage, while batting close to .300 and playing simply stellar defense. He’s true 2nd round value.

I personally always rated Frank Robinson higher but the numbers don’t lie, his .249 batting average and .317 OBP are lower than they need to be for the 9th pick of round 3. He does hit 27 home runs and plays Vg defense, but he’s probably a 4th or 5th rounder. Al Simmons (1931) is a very nice surprise coming in at .753 OPS and a respectable OBP while 1898 Billy Hamilton gets on a base at a prolific clip (Top 15 in the game) along with a Vg defensive reputation.

The last of the batters in the study are shortstop Hughie Jennings (1896) and catcher Josh Gibson (1938 Negro Leagues). Gibson is correctly the second catcher taken and Round 3 is appropriate for a backstop with this much power. Jennings is a bit of an enigma that owners don’t quite know how to handle. On the plus side he bats close to .300 with a .374 OBP, all while playing Ex defense in a middle infield position. However, he has absolutely no power, averaging just 10 doubles a season (no triples or home runs).


Getting back to the pitchers to close out Round 3
With the exception of 1971 Vida Blue and 1901 Al Orth, each of these pitchers are roughly equal to every other starter selected in Round 3 outside the great Babe Adams. Blue is good, but the combination of highest WHIP and highest ERA in the bunch clearly labels him a bottom of the rung 3rd rounder.

Circling around to Orth, again, we have a third rounder (late this time) providing wonderful 1st round value. His 100 sim WHIP is an incredible 1.23, better than not only Adams, but 1st rounders Addie Joss, Pete Alexander, Christy Mathewson, and Randy Johnson. For kicks, his recent daft history too:

ATB XII – Round 7 (Justin)
ATB XI – Round 11 (Justin, perhaps the greatest pick of all time, he had a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in a homer park))
ATB X – Round 3 (Sean)
ATB IX – Round 3 (Sean)
ATB VIII – Round 6 (TJ)

Again, these are historically great owners who don’t need this much help when everyone passes on Al Orth.

The chart below should wrap the last three days together in a nice little bow. Batters are ranked by ATB Value*; pitchers are ranked by ERA. The first column simply lists the order in which owners have draft batters or pitchers (no cross pollination). The second column is the players rank in ATB Value or ERA. Major differences between this two are highlighted in red (drafted too early) and green (should be drafter sooner).

*For those that may not remember, ATB Value is my attempt at the single most important batter stat for ATB – encompassing offensive skills (OBP & SLG, weighted towards OBP), defense (Range or Catcher Arm), along with park factor (irrelevant in the 100 resims since all parks are neutral).