Monday, June 27, 2011

Is Greg Maddux Having the Best Starting Pitcher Season in ATB History

After Sim 10A, Willet's Point star pitcher Greg Maddux is 18-2 with an outstanding 1.86 ERA. His peripherals back him up as well, in 25 starts he's already tossed 198 innings giving up just 171 hits and 31 walks. Just how good has Maddux been?

Looking back through ATB history, the top-10 pitcher seasons of all time list is currently headed by Pedro Martinez of ATB VII. Martinez went 17-4 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Here's a tally comparison of the pertinent stats, pro-rating Maddux through the end of the year at his current pace.



This will be an interesting case. Pedro maintains a better strikeout rate, WHIP, and RCERA while Maddux doubles his Shutouts and almost Complete Games. His W-L record and total innings pitched also overshadows that of Martinez. If pressed, I would rather have Maddux of ATB XIII then Pedro of ATB VII.

However, Maddux is currently trending the wrong way. Looking at cumulative ERA and WHIP over their respective seasons, Maddux is slowly but clearly increasing both statistics. Martinez hit a rough spot around this very time frame - the end of August around his 25th start - but closed out the season on a great run going 6-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his final 7 starts.

Since August 1, Maddux has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.





One final item to note is park factor. Martinez enjoyed a pitchers park, with factors averaging 92 / 95 / 70 / 125 (singles, doubles, triples, home runs). Maddux has less of a advantage, with his park averaging 96 / 109 / 108 / 118.

Maddux has a shot at the best starting pitching season in ATB history, but he needs to change the momentum the rest of the way, exactly like Pedro Martinez was able to.

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1 comment:

  1. Forget the SI curse, the ATB Blog Curse is in effect! Maddux lost today of course, giving up 9 hits and 3 runs in 8.2 IP

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