Saturday, August 6, 2011

World Series Preview

Beginning Sunday night, the 87-75 DC Chips led by Steve C face off against the 87-75 Newark Slam Dumps. There may be other teams as deserving as these two, but none more so. Both owners are among the most active in the league, and both have had to battle through a tremendous injury strain throughout the regular season and playoffs.

The Chips have dealt with a league leading 290 days lost due to injury, and incredible amount, and 64 more days the team with the second most days lost. The injuries impacted star players too - Ty Cobb (68 days), Todd Helton (58 days), Fergie Jenins (38 days), Stan Musial (21 days), and Mariano Rivera (15 days).

While not as severe as DC, Newark has had their own burden to deal with. To date they have endure 35 different injuries, tops in the league and 17% more than any other team. 28 of these injuries have to been to starters or ace-type relievers.

Head to head this season, DC has taken 4 of 6 from Newark. But who is poised to win a best of seven now?

Starting Pitching
Edge: Newark

The two best starters on either team are Newark's Randy Johnson (12-10, 3.16) and Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38). DC counters with a relative unknown with mid-season pickup Bobby Ojeda (15-6, 3.09). The lefty came out of nowhere to have a stellar season, but with no track record it's difficult to know if he's luck or really this good.

During the regular season Newark starters compiled a 4.03 ERA, 5th best in league. DC's era was 7th best, but at 4.33 there's an appreciable difference between the two, especially considering DC plays their home games in a pitchers park, the Astrodome.

Relief Corps
Edge: DC

There is no question the DC bullpen is the better of the two. Joe Neale (213 IP, 2.15 ERA) and Mariano Rivera (2.47 ERA, 147 IP) are now household names synonymous with relief excellence. Doc White (118 IP, 3.42 ERA) adds flexibility as a spot starter or long reliever as well.

Newark counters with just two relievers compiling a regular season ERA below 4.00. Closers Rafael Soriano (3.49 ERA) and Rob Murphy (3.86 ERA) are solid but can be beaten.

Defense
Edge: Newark

Newark's most common lineup features 7 regulars with Vg defense and average fielding ratings significantly better than average. With Mickey Cochrane and is Ex throwing arm, this one of the better defenses in the game.

DC's defense is bit more haphazard. They feature Ex ranges in first an center, but just average defense at short and third, and routinely play Ty Cobb (Vg/80) out of position in right field. With an unimpressive starting catcher arm they are a little behind Newark in general ability.

Offense
Edge: Newark

Newark scored 858 runs, DC just 708. This is the largest advantage for Newark in any facet of the game. Led by Mickey Mantle (.980 OPS), eight regulars have OPS scores above .750 and as a team, the Slam Dumps have hit 126 home runs.

DC's lineup sports just three regulars with an OPS over .750 and have hit 95 home runs. As a team they are batting .257 / .323 / .360 which has led them to the third worst offense in the game.

Commish Predicton
Newark in 6. The Slam Dumps are the better team. Their run differential was +130 in the regular season, more than five times better than the Chips +23. In order for DC to win a short series, Bobby Ojeda must start well in three games, a tall order.

The wild card for both teams is the rotation. For now at least, it appears Steve and Sean will employ 3-man rotations throughout the World Series and starting on short rest can be very unpredictable. DC can win the title, but Newark should win it.

The World Series page is up an running.

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