How Good Will Jose Bautista Be?

The 2011 batter pool leaves a lot to be desired.  According to my own personal draft board, not many batters from last season are worthy of entry into ATB.  (Pitchers however, have some hidden gems).


The best of them, on paper at least, is likely to be Jose Bautista.  For Toronto last year the right fielder batted .302 / .447 / .608 with 43 home runs.  Historically, those are good but not great numbers, with the most important being the on-base percentage, ranked 237th all time.  Digging deeper however, we find some telling statistics.  When removing multiple seasons of the same player, Bautista jumps to 103rd all time.  When looking at just righties, Bautista jumps up to 38th all time.  Now we're on to something. 

It's vital not to overlook the 'era' that DMB factors into the game engine so prominently.  Run scoring in the AL was down to levels not seen since the early 1990s, so lets pretend I know what I am doing and compare Bautista's raw stats to AL seasons between 1988-1993 and see if we can gleam a look into how DMB might handle him.   That 6-year period has roughly the same run scoring environment as the last two years.

The closest comp appears to be Ken Griffy Jr, circa 1992.  No other batter had a combination of .300 / .400 / .600 with good home run power.

JB - .302 / .447 / .608, 43 HR, 24 2B, 132 BB

KG - .309 / .408 / .617, 45 HR, 28 2B, 96 BB

Bautista edge in on base is almost exactly due to his patience at the plate, drawing 36 more walks then "The Kid".  Unfortunately for Bautista, Griffey isn't exactly a great ATB player, clocking in with an average of .255 / .317 / .434 with 28 home runs in the 79 resims.  All in all it's about 17 points better then the average OPS in the study, with more power and less on base.

I found a nother comp, one of a much more recent vintage.  In 2010 Josh Hamilton of Texas batted .359 / .411 / .633 with 40 2B and 32 HR.  Lining up stats again:

JB - .302 / .447 / .608, 43 HR, 24 2B, 132 BB

JH - .359 / .411 / .633, 32 HR, 40 2B, 43 BB

Here, Hamilton was more of a free swinger with a large majority of his OBP due to his high batting average.  DMB loves the center fielder, as he batted .318 / .385 / .461 in the 79 resims.

Comparing Griffey and Hamilton's 79 resim results:

KG - .255 / .317 / .434, 16 2B, 28 HR

JH - .318 / .385 / .461, 21 2B, 13 HR

To my eyes, Bautista has a good chance at being a blend of the two.   His ability to draw more walks will likely put him north of Griffey's on base, but since he is batting 'only' .302 we cab predict a sub .275 Average limiting his OBP short of Hamilton's.

DMB also seems to like the blend of 40 doubles and 30+ home runs more than 40 home runs and almost 30 doubles.  It's seems reasonable to assume his slugging will be close to Griffey's.

Having very little idea if the above is valid, I feel confident enough (ha ha) to project a line of .260 / .330 / .440.  That .770 OPS for a right fielder is nothing to sneeze at.  It's worthy of a starting job in our league, somewhere between Frank Robinson (.780 OPS) and Paul O'Neil (.765 OPS).