Series Preview - Gold Country vs. Bertrand Island

The two best teams in the American League square off in the Championship Series begging tonight.  Gold Country, 94-68 on the season and with a +114 run differential, rely on small ball offense and arguably the best pitching staff in baseball.  Bertrand Island is perhaps a more well rounded team, but lack a true star player that can carry a series.  In the regular season Bertrand Island won 104 against 58 losses and outscored their opponents by 149 runs.

Starting Pitching

Gold Country never quite found a #5 starter that suited them during the regular season.  That hardly matters now, and with the shortened playoff rotation, their top 4 starters are arguably the best in the league.  The only question mark might be Ferguson Jenkins and with the days off during the series would likely have to pitch just once.

Bertrand Island counters a solid 4-man rotation that matches Gold Country in saber-minded stats like RCERA, if not the traditional stats such as ERA.   Danny Haren is their #1 starter but spent a few weeks on the DL this year.  Finally, keep in mind the park factors.  The Carnie's played in a park that suppresses home runs and singles by about 10% each, while the Gossamers enjoyed a major home run reduction (factor of 20) and increased offense every where else.

Edge:  Tied.

Bullpen 

The top five relievers for Gold Country each have ERA's under 3.00, with only failed starter Fred Hutchinson as a question mark, and he'll not see any playing time.  Lefty specialist Buddy Groom had the best season of the bunch, recording a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings.

Bertrand Island also features a very strong bullpen and rely heavily on a trio of pitchers, Steve Howe, Arnie Stone, and Jeff Zimmeran, each of which reached the 90 innings pitched mark.  They also employ a platoon closer rotation between the lefty Howe and righty Zimmerman.

Edge:  Gold Country

Lineup

Bertrand Island average slash rate line was .277 / .340 / .393 and they were second in the American League in runs scored at 767.  Gold Country hit for less power, but made up for that with a higher on base percentage and batting average:  .284 / .349 / .348 with 713 runs scored, tied for 4th in American League.

When grouping the top 9 batters on each team, measured by ATB Value, each group average a .333 score, with Bertand Island more top heavy and Gold Country more balanced.  Both teams have strong defenses as well.

Edge:  With five players scoring an Slugging Percentage over .400, the Carnies hold the edge in lineups.

Series Edge:  Too close to call.  Will the slightly better Gossamer pen over match the slightly better Carnie offense?  Flip a coin.