At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition. This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft. The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.
20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled. No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off. Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first.
Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.
Most will not remember how the White Rats opened the regular seas, winning 17 of 26 and holding the NL East Division lead for much of May. After about May 15th the team took a nosedive and ultimately finished in 5th place with a 78-84 record. The resims revealed that their opening run was closer to reality than the nosedive.
Jeff B’s White Rats won 7 division titles and 4 wild cards. They sported both an above average offense in pitching staff, and won 90 or more games seven times. This was a very good team. In fact, the regular season was such a fluke, their 78 wins was less than their worst showing in the 20 resims.
One day I will have to study the matter, but there is a general feeling among a sub-set of owners that believe drafting a 1st round pitcher is a mistake. The definition is mistake is in terms of winning the World Series – it’s too difficult to win if one draft’s Pedro Martinez or Greg Maddux in the 1st round.
Our 7th Ranked Orators and now the 6th Ranked White Rats failed to obtain a single batter who could post an .800 OPS in the resims. That has to mean something. On the other hand, both teams were better than 2/3’s of the league and that means something too.
For the White Rats, this was an extremely balanced team with few standouts and few glaring holes. The offense had no regular under a .625 OPS and their top 6 batters average a .767 OPS together. 5th rounder Sam Thompson was probably their best hitter (.299 / .330 / .462, 24 2B, 24 3B) but George Sisler (.321 AVG, .354 OBP) and Josh Gibson (29 HR) could make similar claims.
The rotation was of course top heavy thanks to Greg Maddux, but it worked. Johan Santana, probably best suited as a #3 worked well enough as the White Rats #2. The bullpen was led by Joe Nathan and Damaso Marte (see below), but Curt Leskanic, Mark Eichhorn, Steve Mingori, and Jeff Nelson were all better than average.
Counting it up – 8 of 10 pitchers bested the league average era, and 7 of 9 batters bested the league average OPS. That is impressive.
800 OPS Batters:
None
Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Greg Maddux: 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 18 W, 264 IP
Johan Santana: 3.80 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Joe Nathan: 2.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Damaso Marte: 3.24 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 14: Bill Joyce: .763 OPS (.344 OBP, .419 SLG)
Bust Draft Pick
None, though I am disappointed with Duke Snider’s performance (.325 OBP, .430 SLG for a Rd 3 pick).
Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats
Amazing that my regular season was the worst season, but I have some validation on my draft strategy from this year, which I changed up quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't pass up Maddux at that spot, but I guess I should have? I always thought Maddux and Pedro were slam dunk first rounders.
Anyway, I was completely done in by terrible pitching at the back of my rotation and bullpen.....which I have no patience to try and fix midstream.
I spend so much time trying to figure out who to draft that when they crap out, I can't muster the strength, time or ambition to find FA replacements. I'd rather wait for those guys to come around (like I should have with John Wetteland a few years ago and yes, I'm still pissed at myself) than explore the scrap heap of pitchers who didn't even get drafted (like Eppa Rixey a few years ago, and yes I'm still pissed at myself).
Ha, i hear ya. But waiting them out is probably the best strategy anyway. If you draft using the 100/79 resim data, it generally isn't wrong and players will eventually start performing like they should.
ReplyDeleteAs for Maddux, I need to go back and see world series champions and their first round picks. Would be interesting to see how many won with pitcher in rd 1