100 Sim Results - Batter Conistency (Great Stuff!)

Today, I am very pleased to announce a new file that promises to be of considerable value for the upcoming draft. It took a few days of trial and error before "automating" the selection process somewhat, preventing me from having to comb through 20,000+ lines of results one by one.

This attached file has three records for every player in the sim study: Their best and worst seasons along with a 100 sim average line. For example, 2008 Albert Pujols. The first line is his best season, the second one his 100 sim average, and the third his worst season:


Pujols turned in a wide range of results. At the top of his game he would be a Top-15 batter with a high average, and well above on-base percentage and slugging. At is worst, he hit like a middle infielder. Notice however, the consistency with hitting home runs.

Or how about Eddie Collins:

Could you imagine lucking into that .243 year? A true draft killer. Now is a good time to remind everyone about ATB Value as well. You'll notice despite weaker raw offensive statistics, Collins creams Pujols in ATB Value. This is because a) he plays at a weaker offensive position (compared to Pujols, his a much better than average shortstop than Pujols is over first basement), and b) he's a better defender as well.

The player with the largest disparity between his best and worst seasons is 1971 Hank Aaron. In the 101st sim, Aaron was among the best batters in the game slamming 50 HR's and driving in 132 runners. In the 81st sim, Aaron batted .197 with a measly 18 HRs.


1952 Jackie Robinson had the smallest difference between best and worst ATB Value scores, yet it was still considerable.


The above examples do not speak to consistency though. A batter can turn in one great, one poor, and a whole bunch of mediocre seasons and skew the results. The most consistent player in the game is 1995 Edgar Martinez:


As you can see, the majority of his results were between .230 and .240. Contrast this with the least consistent batter, 1998 Mark McGwire.


The first basemen is all over the map, and when organizing the grouping into buckets of ATB Values to the nearest two tenths (.200, .210, .220) he recorded 8 different buckets with 5 ore more results. This is 60% more than Edgar Martinez.

And finally, these same charts for our two greats - 2002 Barry Bonds and 1920 Babe Ruth:





I hope it is clear that Ruth is the better player. Both left fielders have similar ceilings, but Ruth is consistently performing at a higher level year in and year out, and has a lower floor to boot.