The Cartwright Finals seem to be an uneven match-up on paper, just don't tell the Blackbirds as they apparently don't believe in 'on paper' analysis. They had just a 7.8% chance of winning their first two series and if you ask Brighton, their time has now run out.
With OPS scores within 6 points of each other, at first glance the two offenses are fairly similar. Digging deeper though, Niagara plays in much more of a hitters park and thus Brighton has a clear edge. Pitching wise, there is very little similarity between the two. Brighton has one of the best staffs in the tournament and the best staff of all remaining teams.
Favorites: Shadows
Who to Watch
Lou Gehrig (BS) - .271 / .375 / .583 with 4 HR
Dan Haren (BS) - 28 IP, 23 H, 14 K, 3.25 ERA
Mel Ott (NFB) - .326 with a .721 SLG, 5 HR and 12 RBI
Mort Cooper (NFB) - 31 IP, 24 H, 17 K, 2.35 ERA
Playing their home games in Coors Field, the Blue's of course rely heavily on the home run. Their team 254 mark is easily the best of any team left in the tournament and their solid team .351 OBP means many of their shots come with men on base. The Slam Dumps counter with less power, and after adjusting for park, have the edge in raw batting average and double/triple threat.
Pitching favors the Slam Dumps by a wide margin. Their ERA is almost a full run better than the Blues and when looking at personnel, the difference is not just due to park factors.
Favorites: Slam Dumps
Who to Watch
Sammy Sosa (NYB) - .326 / .354 / .826, 6 HR, 10 R, 10 RBI
Ron Guidry (NYB) - 26 IP, 24 H, 28 K, 2.10 ERA
Mickey Mantle (NSD) - .333 / .424 / .431
Bill Bernhard (NSD) - 38 IP, 19 H, 0.68 WHIP, 1.42 ERA
The Red Eagles are the only team I can find in ATB history to crack the 1,000 runs scored mark but that may not matter against the Pinata Beaters. After adjusting for park differences the two teams are much closer than those raw stats above indicate, though Manetheren still has the edge. No matter how you slice it, a .394 team OBP is quite incredible.
Spanish Harlem has the pitching edge, but again, once adjusting for parks the differences become very small. These two teams are quite evenly matched, and the 10 win difference in the regular season is likely due to differences in league quality. Winning 94 games in ATB IX is a much easier feat than winning 94 games in ATB XV.
Edge: Toss Up
Who to Watch
MRE is batting .349 / .423 / .543 as a team.
Rob Murphy - 16 IP, 9 H, 1.65 ERA in relief
Oscar Charleston - .404 / .473 / .787, 4 HR, 12 RBI
Ed Siever - 25 IP, 26 H, 3.24 ERA
This is a series I am looking forward to watching. I do think Lusitania is the better team, it's arguably the 2nd best team of all time, but at the same time I think John McDonald of ATB 11 is one of the most underrated teams in ATB history. 109 wins is remarkable.
On offense, Lusitania has the edge thanks to a 30 point edge in on base percentage. However, they hit the fewest home runs of any team left in the tourny and will need to rely heavily on the walk.
And that will be the main issue for the Fanclub, their staff walks a ton of batters. Countering this however, is Lusitania's staff which coughs up a ton of home runs, which of course, is what the Fanclub batters specialize in.
Edge: Lusitania by a nose
Who to Watch
Ted Williams - .318 / .444 / .614
Johnny Podres - 26 IP, 30 H, 1.75 ERA
Dick Allen - .348 / .400 / .761, 6 HR, 13 RBI
Mike Mussina - 35 IP, 26 H, 24 K, 1.53 ERA
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