Checking In on the Stearnes Trade

A few weeks ago, a blockbuster trade was announced between Spanish Harlem and Galaxy.  1st Rounder Turkey Stearnes, in the midst of a terrible start, was shipped out of town by the Guardians.  In return, the Pinata Beaters parted with upstart Pascual Perez and Josh Hamilton.

Many owners felt the trade was lopsided and Galaxy didn't get enough in return for Stearnes.  However, Stearnes has continued to struggle and it prompted a note from Galaxy owner Joe V earlier today.

Just wanted to revisit the Stearnes deal from awhile back....he has hit .199/.220/.355 with 5HR and 19RBI for Spanish Harlem.  This is a worse slash line than he had with me.  Bonham has started only two games for SPH

On my end, Hamilton has a .233/.286/.400 slash line with 4HR and 11 RBI.  He's done this in 76 less ABs than Stearnes.  Perez has not been as dominant, but is 3-4 with a 3.72 ERA which is markedly better than Bonham had produced. Edit:  Bonham has since been dropped.

I  should also add to the mix, that Hurley McNair, who I have used in tandem with Hamilton, is hitting .267/.313/.438 with 2 3B, 2HR and 21 RBI in the platoon.  The combo has been significantly better than Stearnes was/is but McNair would have never played this much with Stearnes in front--regardless of how bad he was playing.

All in all, at this point, the trade is probably a wash--neither side got the difference makers they hoped for.  That said, statistically, I think Galaxy has made out slightly better right now.

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(Bolding mine)

Is Joe right?  Let's take a deeper look.  First the trade itself and how each player has performed since:

To Spanish Harlem
Turkey Stearnes:  .199 / .220 / .355 with 5 HR, 19 RBI, Vg Def
Tiny Bonham: 0-0 in 2 GS, 4.97 ERA.  He's been dropped outright.

To Galaxy
Pascual Perez:  3-4, 3.72 ERA in 46 innings pitched.
Josh Hamilton:  .233 / .286 / .400 in part time duty (90 AB)

This is a trade with no winners ... right now.
 
Stearnes has continued to be the worst batter, by far, taken in the first five rounds.  Stearnes has never walked much and always struck out, but his 5 walks and 31 strikeouts to date are particularly troubling.  Among qualified batters, only Keith Hernandez (HOB, Rd 9), Fred Clarke (NOR, Rd 7), and Buddy Myer (HOB, Rd 10) are having worse seasons.

On the other hand, Joe has traded a 1st round elite batter for 50 cents on the dollar and gotten a league average starting pitcher (Average NL ERA for a starter is 3.68) and (at the moment) a below average platoon outfielder in return.  The McNair comment is interesting, but I can't help but think that this is evidence Hamilton wasn't needed in the first place.  McNair's 355 resims averaged a .778 OPS, almost identical to Hamilton's mark of .775.

The truly bad news for for Galaxy though?

Before the Trade
SPB: 24-19 (4.5 R/G, 3.7 RA/G, +34 RD)
GAL: 24-17 (4.1 R/G; 3.6 RA/G, +22 RD)

After the Trade:
SPB: 24-16 (4.7 R/G, 4.0 RA/G, +29 RD)
GAL: 18-24 (3.9 R/G; 4.0 RA/G,  -6 RD)

Joe has been very active in the trade market and it's not fair to pinpoint Galaxy's slide on the trade.  He's also acquired Mickey Mantle, Ken Sanders, Stve Mingori, Tommy Tucker, and Jimmy Williams as well, and time will only tell how this team has improved since opening day.

Similarly, Justin has traded for Hank Aguirre, Chipper Jones, Kevin Brown, and Darren Holmes and their results will certainly skew the impact of the trade in question.

However, and this is irrefutable, the odds state from this point going forward Stearnes will likely hit .295 / .335 / 560 with 30 2B, 14 3B, and 7 HR's.  If that happens, Spanish Harlem wins this trade (and maybe the division title for that matter) going away.

If it doesn't, then Joe proves his case that he's marginally the victor.  He took a conscientious risk that Stearnes wouldn't turn it around, right now, he's absolutely correct.