Monday, April 22, 2013

MVP by Way of Runs Created

The major regular season ATB awards are voted on by the owners.  Some take a scientific view analyzing all stats while others take more of a high level view, perusing the leader boards to make their decision.  Others may refuse to vote for a player on a losing team or vice versa, automatically leaning towards awarding an MVP to someone on a winning team.  It's a subjective award and there is no right or wrong answer as long as each voter is honest in their investigation.

One way to look at the MVP is to calculate a players worth to the team by simply determining the Runs Created percentage of team totals for each player.  I've done this mini-analysis for the past couple of years and while it has merits, in rally services to help zero in on the handful of legitimate candidates.

Here are the top 20 in the league to date:

23.0% - Charleston,Oscar (SPB)
21.0% - Hornsby,Rogers (DT)
19.5% - Bonds,Barry (JMF)
19.5% - Ruth,Babe (CGS)
18.9% - Williams,Ted (TWW)
18.8% - Gehrig,Lou (BS)
18.6% - Mantle,Mickey (HH)
17.4% - Rosen,Al (WPM)
17.2% - Barnes,Ross (DCC)
16.6% - Jackson,Joe (TWW)
16.6% - Musial,Stan (PBE)
16.0% - Cash,Norm (LS)
15.8% - Dunlap,Fred (RBB)
15.8% - Hall,George (WPM)
15.7% - Brouthers,Dan (DB)
15.6% - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE)
15.4% - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS)
15.3% - Vaughan,Arky (SM)
15.2% - Martinez,Edgar (SH)
15.1% - Shaffer,Orator (SH)


I do prefer to have my MVP candidates come from a team in the playoff hunt.  It's not a requirement, but all things being equal, I would choose a player on a winning team for my MVP choice.  Well, that's not entirely true – despite Rogers Hornsby's great year (.285 / .354 / .564 at second base), his Tigers are on pace for a 100-loss season and I feel that line isn't good enough to warrant any real consideration.

Filtering out those players on teams well out of the playoff hunt:

American League
19.5% - Bonds,Barry (JMF)
18.9% - Williams,Ted (TWW)
17.4% - Rosen,Al (WPM)
16.6% - Jackson,Joe (TWW)
15.8% - Hall,George (WPM)
15.6% - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE)
15.2% - Martinez,Edgar (SH)
15.1% - Shaffer,Orator (SH)

National League
23.0% - Charleston,Oscar (SPB)
18.8% - Gehrig,Lou (BS)
18.6% - Mantle,Mickey (HH)
17.2% - Barnes,Ross (DCC)
16.0% - Cash,Norm (LS)
15.4% - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS)
15.3% - Vaughan,Arky (SM)


Of these final 15, which have had superstar teammates to help them?  Here's a chart showing the percentage difference between the candidate and the next best batter on the team.  For instance, Barry Bonds accounts for 19.5% of the Fanclub's total Runs Created.  The second best batter on the team, Mark McGwire, accounts for 14.8%.  The difference between the two players is listed below.

American League
4.8% - Bonds,Barry (JMF)
2.7% - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE)
2.4% - Williams,Ted (TWW)
1.6% - Rosen,Al (WPM)
0.1% - Martinez,Edgar (SH)
2nd best on team - Jackson,Joe (TWW)
2nd best on team - Hall,George (WPM)
2nd best on team - Shaffer,Orator (SH)

National League
10.5% -Charleston,Oscar (SPB)
6.6% - Barnes,Ross (DCC)
5.6% - Mantle,Mickey (HH)
3.5% - Gehrig,Lou (BS)
2.6% - Vaughan,Arky (SM)
2.5% - Cash,Norm (LS)
2nd best on team - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS)


Oscar Charleston's 10.5% pops off the page at us.  We already knew the center fielder was the best player in the league, but did you know he's basically a 1-man show on offense, with no other Pinata Beater recording an OPS over .800?  The same is true for Ross Barnes of the Chips, both batters are critical to their teams success.

Contrarily, the Sparta Hoplites Edgar Martinez accounts 15.2% of his teams Runs Created and teammate Orator Shaffer accounts for 15.1%.  Martinez, while great this year, has less of an impact to his team since the supporting cast is more balanced.

My vote will be along these lines.  And this year, it happens the Charleston and Bonds are also raking the ball, and are in the top 5 OPS across ATB:

National League
1) 1.122 OPS, .356 / .461 / .661, 36 HR, 122 R, 127 RBI – Oscar

2) 0.982 OPS, .298 / .373 / .609, 40 HR, 100 R, 95 RBI – Gehrig

American League
3) 0.980 OPS, .307 / .439 / .541, 27 HR, 77 R, 100 RBI - Williams
4) 1.067 OPS, .265 / .410 / .657, 53 HR, 108 R, 102 RBI – Ruth
5) 0.973 OPS, .256 / .406 / .567, 42 HR, 96 R, 104 RBI – Bonds


Who would you give the MVP to?  Does Bonds surrounding cast make him more valuable than Ted Williams and Babe Ruth?

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