Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Luck Makes or Breaks a Season

For argument sake, lets assume the Carnies and the Gossamers are the two best teams in the league.  They are 1st and 2nd in wins and ranked 1st and 2nd in run differential.

Both teams have great home records:
BIC: 33-8
GCG: 33-11

Both teams are awesome when leading after 7:
BIC: 37-1
GCG: 33-1

Both are great at come from behind wins, trailing after 7:
BIC: 6 wins
GCG: 7 wins

The real difference between the two teams?  1-run games
BIC: 20-2
GCG: 13-11

That folks, is just not sustainable.

Holding the Carnies aside, the rest of the league has a combined .479 winning percentage in 1-run games, the Carnies are enjoying a .919 winning percentage.  There is a Carnie correction coming soon, the laws of statistics say its inevitable.

4 comments:

  1. 20-2....Thats not realisitc! I quit.

    I think Gossamers were off to similar start last year in 1 run games. The last half of the season it didn't correct we just played in less 1 run games....if memory serves. You should about as many 1 run games as your record in non 1-run games so your not to far above board.

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  2. I think the charismatic team manager makes his team player better late and close

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  3. Another number: 10-2...the record of GCG vs. DCC. Ouch.

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