Playoff Preview - Handbasket vs Black Diamonds

Our last playoff series is a match-up between Joe T’s Helena squad (92-70) and Sonoran (99-63), owned by long time ATB’er, and lifetime win leader, Justin P. The two teams are very evenly matched, with the Black Diamonds owning a non-material 2 run lead in overall Run Differential.

Pitching
In terms of ERA, the Black Diamonds have the third best staff in the game, and the #1 staff in the Division. Four starters handled most of the workload this season:

19-7, 3.49 – Lady Baldwin
15-6, 3,55 – Al Orth
14-13, 3.59 – Chris Carpenter
13-11, 3.79 – Ed Siever

Baldwin has emerged as the best strikeout pitcher in ATB, and the first to record 300k’s in living memory. He has control too, walking just 53. As of today, Justin has announced a 4 man rotation but insiders believe that Siever will be the odd man out if the Black Diamonds aren't winning the series by Game 4.

Helena has spread the bulk of their starts among 6 starters. While none bring the punch of Baldwin, the top 4 are a fairly even match:

15-8, 3.36 – Derek Lower
12-6, 3.34 – Teddy Higuera
10-5, 3.58 – Larry Dierker
10-6, 4.05 – Dave McNally

The bullpen is where we begin to see differences. Chris Hammond (2.24 ERA, 65 IP) is the best of the Helena relievers, but Willard Schmidt (3.22 ERA, 101 IP) and closer Joe Nathan (15 Sv, 3.56 ERA) are better than average.

Sonoran’s pen is great from top to bottom. Cla Meredith is the front runner for Reliever of the Year (47 Sv, 1.28 ERA) and his supporting cast has little weakness:

2.40 ERA – Willlie Hernadez (97 IP)
2.61 ERA – Pat Jarvis (69 IP)
2.87 ERA – Joe Grzenda (38 IP)
3.25 ERA – Al Grabowksi (44 IP)

Offense
Helena scored 31 more runs than Sonoran, with the main difference between the two teams being the trade off of HR’s for batting average:

.HH - .287 / .348 / .394, 130 HR
SBD - .253 / .348 / .399, 200 HR

Mickey Mantle is the heart and soul for the Handbasket lineup. The star cent fielder turned in a fine season, batting .299 / .376 / .548 with a .925 OPS, 42 HR, 114 R, and 141 RBI, Left Fielder Ed Delahanty (.848 OPS) and first basemen Buck Leonard (.848 OPS) played very well all season long. Additionally, Eddie Collins quietly turned in typical Hall of Fame type season, batting .317 / .376 / .405 with excellent defense at second base.

Since Draft Day, the Black Diamonds offense has been under the microscope. Justin’s selection of Barry Bonds as the #1 draft pick has been questioned by many, and in hindsight, it remains unclear to this day if this decision was justified. On one hand, Bonds hit 54 HR and drove in 137 runners. On the other, he batted .240 with “only” a .383 OBP, hardly what we’ve become accustomed to from the consensus #1 pick, Babe Ruth. Yet, Ruth had a down year himself, getting on base more than Bonds (.401) but with 15 few home runs.

Either way, Bonds is the team leader and is one of the few game changing hitters employed by any team. Elsewher, Chipper Jones (.393 OBP) and Fred Dunlap (.809 OPS) are very good 1st and second hitters, while the heart of the lineup after Bonds is very effective as well – Fred Lynn (27 HR), Jim Gentile (32 HR).

The Black Diamonds are without Jim Thome (37 HR) for Games 1 and 2.


Defense
The Black Diamonds enter the series with a league averaged defense. Dunlap and 2B, Joe Sewell at SS, Lynn and CF are all Vg defenders with Orator Schaffer in right as the lone Ex representative on the team. Johnny Bassler, the Catcher, also has a Vg good arm.

Handbasket counters with one of the top defenses in the league. Collins (2B), Buddy Bell (3B), Ivan Rodriguez (C), and Ozzie Smith (SS) are all Ex defenders. The rest of the field are each Vg.

Prediction
Helena has been on a tear of late, winning 21 of their last 30 games and outscoring opponents by 41 runs. One has to be careful with this kind of analysis as many teams get hot for 30 days, and it has little bearing on the following week’s worth of games. If momentum is considered at all by the DMB game engine, Helena wins.

Both teams offense and pitching squads are evenly matched, while Helena is the better defending team versus Sonoran with the better relief corps.

It looks to be a nail biter and you might as well toss a coin. I did - Handbasket in 7.