Comish's Prediction - AL West

The AL West is the most difficult division to predict, in part because of the volatility of the parks.  Many players across the teams aren't top-end players, but when you put a home run hitter with a low OBP in a park that inflates the long ball by 300% the results are outside my limits of comprehension.  Still, here's a stab:

1st - Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
2nd - Colorado Green Sox
3rd - John McDonald Fanclub
4th - Rochester Beau Brummels

The strength of the All Stars may be their pitching.  With Walter Johnson and Tex Hughson at the top of the rotation and Joe Nation, JJ Putz, and Bryan Harvey at the back end - this is at least top 10 material.  Juan Padron is a question mark at 3rd starter, but Cy Young and Ron Guidry a perfectly cast as 4th and 5th starters.  The balance of the pen is littered with above average arms too - Derek Liliquist, Aaron Fultz, Sergio Romo, Mike Adams, and Steve Ontiveros.  Top top bottom, this may be the best pen in the game, we'll have to see - their certainly isn't an holes.  On the face of it the lineup is adequate and nothing more.  However, if you put Willie Stargell, Reggie Jackson, Joe D, and Roger Maris in the Baker Bowl good things can happen.  I think they win Division by 3 or more games.

I think of the Fanclub as the opposite All Stars, even if they had the same draft strategy - sluggers in a slugging park.  They have a more bruising lineup but a questionable rotation and bar none, Fanclub has the best back end of the bullpen in the game with Gabe White and Dennis Eckerlsey.  It's a bit thin after, hopefully it won't matter with two stud arms.  Mike Mussina, Jimmy Key, Wait Hoyt, And Pettitte, and Paul Derringer make up the rotation.  That's thin, magnified in the Polo Grounds (and I can't say that I know who Derringer is).  The Polo Grounds do suppress singles, doubles, and triples by 30% so I am guessing the idea was to help the pitching by improving WHIP.  However, I don't recall that the 5 starters where particularly good at preventing home runs so it will be interesting to see what happens in a park that inflates homers by 260%. On offense two good table setters in Hughie Jennings and Roy Thomas are followed by Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Albert Bell, and Ed Swartwood.  Even the back end is respectable with Chase Utley, Jorge Posada, and Ezra Sutton.  This is a good team.

I don't know what happened to the Green Sox, their an enigma. Their draft started with Babe Ruth, Jason Giambi, Harvey Haddix,  Jim Gentile, and soon after Takaisi Saito.  Very nice, excellent even.  But soon sprinkled into key roles were Mark Fidrych and Brett Boone.  Let me take some of that back, in Coors Field a lineup of Bullet Rogan, Oyster Burns, Ruth, Gentile, George Foster, Giambi (batting 6th!), Monte Ward, Bret Boone, and Mike Scioscia is more than good enough to win with.  However, is a rotation with Jose Rijo, Dick Ellsworth, Fidrych good enough?  I am thinking yes, and this a third team that can win the division with the right breaks.  The pen is relatively weak and while I like the talent of Steve Mingori and Al Hrabosky (too aid Saito) and don't like them so much in Coors Field.

A 4th place ranking for the Beau Brummels is odd because I really like this team.  They don't have the offensive horses to run with the rest of the division but George Sisler, Sam Jethroe Fred Dunlap, and Luis Gonzalez make up a good top of the lineup.  The pitching will be a problem.  I want Christy Mathewson to be great, same with Pete Alexander and Hal Newhouser.  These are all superior MLB pitchers but historically have not translated well to ATB.  Their #5 Ben Sheets may have the best ERA out of all of em.  Brad Lidge, the Goose, and Sparky Lyle headline an above average bullpen.  The Beau Brummels have the capability of winning their division and I would not be surprised if ultimately they do, I would simply be less surprised if the other 3 went home.  Late draft pick Bob Caruthers is new to ATB and riding the pine.  It will make a great difference if he ends up being good and can push his way into the rotation.

OK, with all three AL Divisions complete, some words about the playoffs.  The 3 division winners advance, plus a single wild card team from any division.  While there are absolutely no locks, I have the All Stars as favorites by the widest margin so lets advance them.  The Top 4 teams are likely the Hoplites, Wildlings, Red Eagles, and Ball Four.  Advancing the Hoplites because I called them the best team in ATB, that leaves 2 playoff spots for the Red Eagles, Ball Four, and the Wildlings.  Wow, no idea.  Someone will be disappointed  especially when these predictions bomb and 4 other teams advance.  All I can say is when the league is so even, better win the division and avoid counting on the Wild Card.  Virtually every team can make the playoffs in the AL