Comish's Predictions - AL East

I've never done this before (I think) for ATB, but those that know me from other fantasy leagues have experienced my predictions before.  The general thought process being is a good ranking is the kiss of death, as bad luck (ha ha) usually prevents my predictions from coming true.

However, I spent almost an hour on the phone today with another owner reviewing each and every team in the league.  Geekdom at it's finest?  You bet, but it was wonderful, and too good not to share.  Think of this as stream of consciousness writing from the gut, with no numbers, which is unusual for me.  It also should make a lot of what I say suspect.

Here are my thoughts for the AL East

1st – Sparta Hoplites
2nd – Wildlings of the Wall
3rd - Carlisle "Mechanics"
4th - Downsouth Brews

The Hoplites are my early favorite for best team in the league.  Their lineup has few holes and Greg Maddux/Kevin Brown are a top 3 one/two combination in the league.  Is Jerry Reuss a #3 caliber starter?  Probably not but Frank Sullivan and Warren Hacker are both #4 types and can make up the difference.  Offensively I only question Lou Whitaker and Rico Petrocelli at 8 & 9.  The rest of the lineup is very deep, even without home run power.  Richie Ashburn, Chipper Jones, Orator Shaffer, and Edgar Martinez to start the lineup will score runs in this league of parity.

For the first half of the draft I thought the Wildlings were the favorites in the AL East.  However, as the draft wore on the Hoplites pulled even and then ahead, although just slightly.  Billy Hamilton, Ted Williams, Joe Jackson and even Derek Lee are legitimate stars in this league, but I worry about Jackie Robinson in the 2-hole.  The back end of the lineups is relatively weak compared to the front, but the point is moot - each of eh 24 ATB teams have the same  problem.  The rotation is about on par with Sparta (though they don't have an elite ace) and the bullpen combination of Bill Wagner, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joakim Soria is among the best in the game.  They are all righties however, and Bruce Ruffin as the first lefty from the pen is a liability.

The "Mechanics" have a good lineup.  Jimmie Foxx, Tris Speaker, George Hall, and Mike Piazza are among the best at their respective positions.  Sammy Sosa is one dimensional, but when that dimension comes with 40 home run power you can live with it.  The rotation will be a problem though - Rube Waddell, Dutch Leonard, Mordecai Brown, Robin Roberts, and Dwight Gooden?  Not sure if there is a #1 or #2 caliber starter in there.  I love Red Ryan and Joakim Soria at the end of the games, hopefully they will not be overworked by the questionable starters.  Can this team make the playoffs?  Absolutely, they just need a few more breaks than the Hoplites and Wildlings.

The Brews on the other hand may need more than few breaks.  (Of course, this statement likely means they'll win the division.)  The lineup is certainly respectable - Bobby Murcer, Dan Brouthers, Harry Heilmann, Howard Johnson, and even Josh Hamilton are good players - teams have won with them in the past.  The problem is the rotation.  The new year for  Randy Johnson (2000) is a question mark this team didn't need.  Bret Saberhagen may end up being a "500 resim trap" - he was never that good in any previous ATB season, not sure why he dominated in the resims.  Chris Carpenter is an above average 4th starter but Jerry Koosman screams future drop.  Tom Niedenfuer is an ideal setup man, but thrust into the closer role on this team.  This leaves Fred Beene and Roberto Hernandez - two decent pitchers for sure - to complete the setup work.  But most teams have great back end relievers, not sure if decent will cut it.  This can be a playoff team if I am proven wrong on Randy Johnson.