Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Comish's Predictions - NL East

It's a 3 horse race in the NL East:

1st - Brighton Shadows
2nd - DC Chips
3rd - Helena Handbasket
4th - Detroit Tigers


In my humble opinion, the Brighton Shadows are the team to beat in the NL East.  The roster is headlined by Gehrig, Junior Griffey, Pete Hill, Buck Leonard in the field; Bruce Sutter, Rafael Soriano, and Grame Lloyd in the pen; and Joe Wood, Danny Haren, and Dizzy Dean in the rotation.  The lineup should be fine, especially with solid role players in Ben Zobrist and Pete Reiser (even catcher Darren Daulton can hit some) but this team will live and die by the rotation.  It lacks elite talent and while I have seen first-hand how good Haren can be, I've also seen him struggle to crack a 4.50 ERA.  Cliff Lee and Silver King round out the rotation, and they are about as good as any other 4/5 according to the resims. 

The DC Chips are an overall solid team from top to bottom.  No single area stands out with a glaring hole, and at the same time, no single area stands out as an asset.  What I found most interesting is how Steve will handle his bullpen.  The pioneer of the "All Relievers, All the Time" methodology, Steve has historically had the likes of Mariano Rivera, Gabe White, the great version of Joe Neale, or the amazing version of Frank Killen, to work with. His top relievers would get 150 or more innings every year.   This season it appears other owners learned and jumped on the elite relievers before Steve had a chance himself.  Instead of Mo, the Chips will try and abuse Tug McGraw and Rob Murphy, great relievers, but not elite ones.  The offense will be fine – Deacon White, Barnes, Cristobal, Bill Joyce, Frank Robinson, Ben Taylor, Sheree Magee, and Pop Lloyd – all good ballplayers one can work with.  The rotation rides on the left arm of Bob Ojeda.  He was great in each of the last two seasons with DC, but the 500 resims told a much different story.  If the Chips can continue to work their magic with Ojeda this team will be fine; if not then the rest of the rotation (Javy Vazquez, Atlee Hammacker, Randy Jones, and Jim Merrit) aren't good enough to make up the difference.

Any of the top 3 teams can win this division.  Sure I like the Chips and Shadows a bit more then Helena Handbasket but do I like them enough to place a meaningful wager?  No, I think not.  Helena could easily win this division behind a solid middle of the order of Lou Boudreau (2nd), Mickey Mantle, Willie McCovey, Adrian Beltre and to a lesser extent Larry Doby.  McCovey actually platoons here with Ralph Kiner, a great combination.  The rotation is better than first glance.  Russ Ford is a legit #2 starter (1.20 resim WHIP) cast in an ace role, but Derek Lowe, Hank Aguirre, Bob Feller, and Dolf Luque will likely combine to make an above average 2nd through 4th starter combination.  The bullpen is anchored by the always good Jeff Zimmerman, and Octavio Dotel and Chris Hammond simmed extremely well

The Detroit Tigers are run by rookie owner Bill N and I think the team will struggle, just like 90% of all other first year owners.  ATB can be very complicated, especially if not utilizing the 500 resims a great deal.  Rogers Hornsby and Hugh Duffy are fine building blocks as the first two picks but Sandy Koufax as a team ace in the 4th round is a lot to overcome.  Koufax was awesome for the Dodgers of course, but DMB has historically  made him into a 5th starter.  The 500 resims showed him better than usual, maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle.  Rounding out the rotation is Satchel Paige, Bob Gibson, Ed Walsh, and Luis Tiant.  Again, all great real life names but each comes with warning signs in ATB.  The rest of the lineup has some pluses (Al Simmons, Billy Williams, Carlos Delgado) and question marks (Ivan Rodriguez at 7 for instance) but should play somewhere around average.  The pen is led by Armando Benetiz, Arthur Rhodes, and  Trevor Hoffman – all solid.  Overall, a good effort from Bill – he just fell into the same trap so many other first year owners have encountered, loving real life baseball history.

1 comment:

  1. oooh, the kiss of death I do not want to read three team race in my division cuz I will know which rookie owner the Kommish is talking about :)

    ReplyDelete