This bit of exhibition analysis comes from Steve, owner of the DC Chips. On a personal note, any time ATB impacts work time I smile...
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Ok, I've got a client meeting later this morning but work can wait….Your predictions prompted this little two-part test.
First, I took a look at the two leagues by comparing the final exhibition records. I'd rather have analyzed run differential but it looks like the exhibition stats are down. With the obvious caveat of small sample size and teams were still a work in progress, here's what jumps out:
- The seven best records are all NL teams (Justin, Steve, Brad, Dave K, Joe T, Greg M, Mike M)
- Of the five best records, three are in the NL East
- Only four AL teams had winning records: Allen (13-12), Joe V (12-11), Matt B (13-12), and Mike S (12-11)
- No AL team was better than just a single game above .500
- Of the four AL winning records, three are in the East and one is in the Central
- No AL West team had a winning record
- Of the nine worst records, seven are AL teams
Second, prompted by your thought that the AL Central might be the strongest division, I computed the W-L records for each division. Results are below, with usual caveats, and expressed in terms of winning percentage to account for unequal number of games:
1 - .611 - NL East (52-33)
2 - .553 - NL Central (52-42)
3 - .543 - AL East (44-37)
4 - .526 - NL West (50-45)
5 - .413 - AL Central (39-53)
6 - .402 - AL West (35-52)
Oh brother, I'm having bad ATB flashbacks to last year. Will be interesting to look back at the end of the season.
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Thanks Steve for the analysis, it is certainly damning. The one thing I would like to point out is most of exhibitions featured horrendous lineups generated. Perhaps I am convincing myself of this because I was under .500, but when my set-up man Jeff Gray gets a few starts then something is amiss. Even my #1 draft choice Turkey Stearnes was being pinch hit for late in games. Then again, maybe I should panic if the AI thinks so poorly of my draft.
......
Ok, I've got a client meeting later this morning but work can wait….Your predictions prompted this little two-part test.
First, I took a look at the two leagues by comparing the final exhibition records. I'd rather have analyzed run differential but it looks like the exhibition stats are down. With the obvious caveat of small sample size and teams were still a work in progress, here's what jumps out:
- The seven best records are all NL teams (Justin, Steve, Brad, Dave K, Joe T, Greg M, Mike M)
- Of the five best records, three are in the NL East
- Only four AL teams had winning records: Allen (13-12), Joe V (12-11), Matt B (13-12), and Mike S (12-11)
- No AL team was better than just a single game above .500
- Of the four AL winning records, three are in the East and one is in the Central
- No AL West team had a winning record
- Of the nine worst records, seven are AL teams
Second, prompted by your thought that the AL Central might be the strongest division, I computed the W-L records for each division. Results are below, with usual caveats, and expressed in terms of winning percentage to account for unequal number of games:
1 - .611 - NL East (52-33)
2 - .553 - NL Central (52-42)
3 - .543 - AL East (44-37)
4 - .526 - NL West (50-45)
5 - .413 - AL Central (39-53)
6 - .402 - AL West (35-52)
Oh brother, I'm having bad ATB flashbacks to last year. Will be interesting to look back at the end of the season.
.......
Thanks Steve for the analysis, it is certainly damning. The one thing I would like to point out is most of exhibitions featured horrendous lineups generated. Perhaps I am convincing myself of this because I was under .500, but when my set-up man Jeff Gray gets a few starts then something is amiss. Even my #1 draft choice Turkey Stearnes was being pinch hit for late in games. Then again, maybe I should panic if the AI thinks so poorly of my draft.
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