Thursday, November 27, 2014

Confirmed Owners and DH/No DH Preferences

Please start to send in your preferences for DH or no DH.  I'll update this list as things change

22 Confirmed Owners

DH Preference
Justin P
Justin Bo
Mike S
Lou P
Gary G
Matt B

No DH Preference
Brian B
Greg M
Mike M
Stephen L
Joe V
Sean S
Jason B
Ivar A
Will G

OK With Either Option
David K
Joe T
Allen C

Preference Not Yet Stated
Brad P
Al H
Leanne S

Played Last Year, Awaiting Decision for This Year
Steve C
Shotgun S
Jay H

Played Last Year, But Not Available This Year
Jeff B

Welcome Will G!

The funds funneled into the Helena recruiting  program has paid off.  Welcome Will G, friend of Joe T!

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Welcome Stephen Lee

We have our first new owner of the season.  Please welcome Stephen Lee from the DMB forums.

Welcome Stephen!

Friday, November 21, 2014

He Who Has Jarvis Will Succeed

Earlier today Ivar A made a comment to the effect "he promises not to draft Larry Walker" and this struck a chord with me.  For years during draft week, just about everyone knew Ivar wanted Walker and Allen C can't live without Jimmie Foxx.  Sure, it's a fun joke but how true is it?  And are there others even more dedicated to a certain player or two.

Yes and Yes.

Ivar has been an owner for 8 seasons and has drafted Walker in five of them.  Allen has been an owner for 6 seasons and has drafted Jimmie Foxx in half of them.  We might as well call Allen a Beene lover too though, he's gone with Fred Beene just as often.

Those are very high draft rates but hardly remarkable for our league.

  • Of the 21 current owners who have participated in at least two seasons, only 3 have failed to draft someone less than half of their seasons.
  • In fact, the average owner drafts one of his favorites 62% of the time.

Here are some of the extremes.

  • Brad has a man crush on Cal Ripken, going with the shortstop 6 times
  • Brian drafted Jose Canseco and Ray Dandridge 4 of 7 times.
  • Gary G has played in three seasons, and in all three has ended with Jay Johnstone, Shane Victorino, Jim Konstanty, and Pet Rose
  • Jason B likes Joey Belle - 4 of 7 times
  • Jay H goes Charles Johnson and Phil Regan 60% of the time
  • Joe T and Gil McDougald where made for each other, with the infielder going 71% of the time to Helena
  • Matt B has selected HoJo 4 of 7 years
  • Going back to Tony Larussa days, Sean S has always liked Joel Horlen, and in modern ATB history has gone with the pitcher 5 of 8 times.
  • Shotgun enjoys the company of JJ PUtz (4 of 6 years)
  • Steve C prefers consistency at backstop, drafting Deacon White 4 of 7 years.
  • Even the newer owners are getting in on the action.  Three time owners Dave K and Joe V have drafted 16 players between them twice, and two time owners Greg M and Mike M have drafted 5 players in both their seasons.
  • The most loyal though is Justin P.  Of all the darn relievers in the game, he has ended up with Pat Jarvis an incredible 8 of 11 times.  Justin is currently ranked as the best owner in ATB history, and therefore it stands to reason he who has Jarvis will succeed.  Thus, it is my personal mission to draft Jarvis early in round 2

The four owners who like a little variety?

  • Jeff B has never drafted anyone more than 4 times in 9 years (Dolf Luque)
  • Mike M never more than 5 of 11 (Jeff Gray and Kevin Millwood)
  • TJ O never more than 5 of 11 (Charlie Keller)
  • Lou P never more than 4 in 11 (Stan Musial)

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Quote from Earl Weaver

Fits in nicely for the current sports season....

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock.  You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance.  That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.  ~Earl Weaver

Top All Time Rotations

Last week looked at the best lineup in ATB history, and so now, naturally, we need to take a look at the best rotation.  Using the same methodology but replacing ATB Value Runs with the RSAA statistic, we find that the ATB 12 John McDonald Fanclub rotation was the best ever in ATB.  Just like the DC Chips, this team had the best no matter how we slice the data.  Their total RSAA scores were tops when analyzing the best two starters on a team, the best three, and the best four.

Three other teams are realistically "in the conversation".  The top 2, 3, and 4 starters scores are in parenthesis.

ATB 9 Dyersville Black Sox (-80.3, -113.1, -129.1)
-47.1: 2004 Randy Johnson .(2.63 ERA, 233 IP, 2.38 RCERA)
-33.2: 1962 Hank Aguirre ..(3.11 ERA, 237 IP, 2.94 RCERA)
-24.7: 2003 Jason Schmidt .(3.22 ERA, 204 IP, 3.11 RCERA)
-22.7: 2002 Curt Schilling (3.10 ERA, 235 IP, 3.33 RCERA)

ATB 12 Dumais Wells Oath Binders (-78.7, -107.5, -100.7)
-45.7: 1919 Babe Adams ....(2.76 ERA, 235 IP, 2.41 RCERA)
-33.0: 1948 Harry Brecheen (2.04 ERA, 198 IP, 2.66 RCERA)
-28.8: 1904 Noodles Hahn ..(3.03 ERA, 214 IP, 2.95 RCERA)
  6.8: 1902 Rube Waddell ..(3.90 ERA, 122 IP, 4.66 RCERA)

ATB 15 Otherton Fishbiscuits (-83.3, -113.1, -129.1)
-49.2: 2000 Pedro Martinez (2.61 ERA, 297 IP, 2.54 RCERA)
-34.1: 1902 Bill Bernhard .(3.29 ERA, 287 IP, 2.96 RCERA)
-29.8: 1966 Juan Marichal .(3.54 ERA, 285 IP, 3.09 RCERA)
-16.0: 1993 Danny Darwin ..(3.73 ERA, 195 IP, 3.29 RCERA)

And our winners:

ATB 12 John McDonald Fanclub (-90.1, -129.7, -169.0)
-48.4: 1946 Tex Hughson ....(2.67 ERA, 256 IP, 2.46 RCERA)
-41.7: 1942 Mort Cooper ....(2.34 ERA, 177 IP, 2.04 RCERA)
-39.6: 1884 George Bradley .(2.53 ERA, 224 IP, 2.57 RCERA)
-39.3: 2000 Pedro Martinez .(2.70 ERA, 213 IP, 2.50 RCERA)

That is quite remarkable.  No other team has approached 3 starters with RSAA marks around 40, and this team has four.  Unfortunately for the Fanclub their offense was quite bad this year, finishing 19th in runs scored resulting in an 88 win season, a full 16 games off the pace in their division.

One thing that irks me with RSAA is the potential to rely too heavily on innings pitched.  The four teams with the lowest runs against in league history don't make the top 4.  It is possible that their bullpens played a large role, but it is also possible that RSAA isn't the best measure.

Let's look at the two of those teams, the ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters and Dosequis Interesting Men, both of which only allowed 540 runs all year.

ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters (-40.7, -53.5, -60.3)
-21.7: 1987 Jimmy Key ......(3.06 ERA, 205 IP, 2.70 RCERA)
-19.0: 1928 Garland Braxton (2.49 ERA, 184 IP, 2.72 RCERA)
-12.8: 1901 Al Orth ........(3.66 ERA, 213 IP, 3.11 RCERA)
 -6.9: 1988 Teddy Higuera ..(3.45 ERA, 187 IP, 3.32 RCERA)

ATB 16 Dosequis Interesting Men (-48.3, -57.9, -66.7)
-37.1: 1902 Jesse Tannehill.(2.66 ERA, 244 IP, 2.28 RCERA)
-11.1: 1908 3-Finger Brown (3.20 ERA, 233 IP, 3.22 RCERA)
 -9.7: 1946 Hal Newhouser .(2.65 ERA, 193 IP, 3.20 RCERA)
 -8.7: 1957 Johnny Podres .(3.33 ERA, 224 IP, 3.30 RCERA)

It's plain to see - the Fanclub's rotation holds up here as well.  Congrats JMF!

Thursday, November 13, 2014

My Kind of Lineup - the ATB 10 DC Chips

The ATB 17 (!) season is quickly approaching and I have been racking my brain trying to find a way back into the swing of things with an article or two.  I originally hoped to focus on offensive  prowess by identifying the the best infield and outfields in our history, but this quickly became an insurmountable task due to the way DMB stores data.

Fielding data is not readily reportable and as a result, most of the time I can only report on real-life positions.  If someone decides to play Ducky Medwick at 1st base instead of left field, I am generally blind to it.  To pick the best outfield, I would have to comb through every team throughout our history and manually identify the most common lineups.  Maybe one day, but not today.

Instead I thought I would focus on the best 1-2, or 1-2-3 combinations that owners have been able to field.  To save time, I chose ATB Value Runs as the primary indicator of success.  As a result, this study turned out to be more about well rounded players than solely offensive success.

And hence the title, "My Kind of Lineup".  You see, ATB Value Runs is really just a made up stat. Sure, there are legit calculations behind it - Weighted On Base, Defensive Studies, and park factors are the three most critical - but ultimately it comes down to judgement on how to bring each individual metric into one tidy number.

That judgement of course, was solely mine.  Looking at ATB Value, I am really looking at how I personally value players and nothing more.

Which team has been the most "My Kind of Team" through the years on offense?  It turns out there is really no contest.  The ATB 10 DC Chips owned by Steve C have the single best ATB Value Runs scored of all time, plus the best two ATB Value Runs Scored, plus the best 3, all the way down to all nine slots in the lineup.

I love looking at these guys:
This team had everything. 
  • Power?  Three guys with 30+ home runs led by Barry Bonds.  This, in a park where the HR factor for the team was 53 and the division was 67
  • Speed?  How does 7 regulars that averaged 30 SB's between them sound.
  • Defense? 5 Ex rating defenders, a team error rate of 66, 2 Ex Armed Outfielders, and an Ex armed catcher. 
  • On Base?  Bonds had the highest OBP ever recorded and the team averaged .362.
Steve's DC Chips  of ATB 10 hold the record for the most wins and are one of only three teams to lead a league in Runs Scored and Runs Against.  Most telling of all I think, is what round these players are drafted in our current environment:
Rd 1 - Barry Bonds
Rd 1 - Larry Walker
Rd 1 - Oscar Charleston (though, this is the old OC)
Rd 2 - Eddie Collins
Rd 5 - Jesse Burkett
Rd 5 - Pop Lloyd
Rd 9 - Roy Campanella
Rd 9 - Todd Helton
Rd 10 - Howard Johnson
Nice job Steve.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Useful Access Database Tool

All statistics from 1871 through 2013 in a handy reporting tool.  Needs MS Access though.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

A New 500 Resims (355 Anyway)

Well, I got to 355 and had enough.  DMB says 100 simulations is needed  to understand a players true baseline so we are well above the minimum.

Before our upcoming ATB 17 (!) season just a few months away, I wanted to tackle another resim baseline.  Recall, in the past two years we have tweaked the era and added players, and I figure every few years it will be valuable to re-baseline the league.  I purposely did not wait until the MLB season so that each year there is some mystery to how the newest players will perform.

The full report is here and the player cards are updated as well.  Below are some highlights for the newest players:

Batters worth a Look
.271 / .366 / .451, 31 HR - Miguel Cabrera (2013)
.270 / .382 / .395, 47 2B - Joey Votto (2012)
.243 / .345 / .422, 38 SB - Mike Trout (2013)

Batters to Pass On
.255 / .312 / .381, 19 HR - Andrew McCutchen (2012)
.228 / .299 / .358, 18 HR - Paul Goldschmidt (2013)

Pitchers worth a Look
1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.92 Adj ERA - Koji Uehara (2013)
2.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.49 Adj ERA - Fernando Rodney (2012)
2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.63 Adj ERA - Jacob McGee (2012)
3.51 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.62 Adj ERA - Clayton Kershaw (2013)
3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.66 Adj ERA - Max Scherzer (2013)

Pitchers to Pass On
3.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.91 Adj ERA - Glen Perkins (2013)
4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.53 Adj ERA - Mark Melancon (2013)

Adjusted ERA is my new stat for Resim pitcher data.  It is the pitchers ERA adjusted to reflect the defense behind him.  The adjustment is calculated using the defensive metric values from studies I've shared over the years.  Each position can add or subtract a few percentages points of ERA.  Add up the positions for a while team, weighting them for the importance of that position (ex. SS Range more important than C range).

A few examples:

Sandy Koufax (1966) looks pretty good by previous resim measures.  4.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 189 hits in 198 innings.  That is definitely worth a draft pick.  Digging deeper though, his defense was among the best in the resims.  Eddie Collins, Ron Santo, Bill Dickey, and Omar Vizquel held down the infield (along with Av/31 Harmon Killebrew at 1st) while  the Roy Thomas, Ed Delahanty, and Paul Waner roamed the outfield.  That is quite good and as a result many runs were saved.  Accounting for this gives Koufax a gaudy 4.63 ERA had the defense been average.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Randy Johnson (2001).  He simmed well with a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP but his defense was suspect in several places.   Adjusting for it brings his ERA down to 3.06.

Cherry picking some interesting cases:
3.37 adjusted to 3.16 - Roger Clemens (1986)
3.44 adjusted to 3.18 - Johnny Podres (1957)
3.30 adjusted to 3.67 - Jerry Reuss (1980)
4.21 adjusted to 4.62 - Bill Foster (1932)
3.34 adjusted to 3.60 - Jason Schmidt (2003)

The vast majority of adjustments are upward.  Since the auto draft was used, it is important to remember that the DMB AI relies heavily on defense and the the coputer fields a much better fielding team than ATB managers normally would.  As a result, only 15% of the pitchers saw their ERA improve.

Finally, it is interesting how close some of the players results are to the 500 sims from a few years ago.  Randomly picking some players to compare:

Adrian Gonzalez 2009
355 - .223 / .306 / .407
500 - .224 / .305 / .405

Benny Kauff 1915
355 - .287 / .375 / .435
500 - .284 / .373 / .428

Edgar Wesley 1925
355 - .266 / .328 / .465
500 - .269 / .332 / .465

Honus Wagner 1908
355 - .296 / .346 / .455
500 - .302 / .345 / .464

The vast majority of players remain unchanged, but there are a few curiosities:

Ted Williams 1941
355 - .321 / .451 / .560
500 - .327 / .475 / .570

Oscar Charleston 1924
355 - .324 / .407 / .604
500 - .338 / .442 / .625

Lou Gehrig 1927
355 - .299 / .407 / .622
500 - .303 / .422 / .632

Those are the three biggest changes and it is odd that they are all big names and odd they all suffered instead of improved.  I don't have an explanation.  Among full time players, 95.0 % of the time the difference OPS between the 500 resims of two years ago and this years 355 resims in were within 2.5% of each other.  But a handful of players suffered relatively wild swings.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Current era Batters May be Worth A Look Again

Click to Enlarge

Average OPS scores have been plummeting for years, mostly due to declining power #s.  No idea what that could be from (wink, wink).  There is even a chance no batter reaches 40 home runs.

For ATB this is important information.  As we all know, DMB compares a player to his peers of the era to determine how good they will pan out.  The lower the offensive season on average, the better chance a great batter will stand out.

This year, Mike Trout looks to be the best choice, by I do miss his .430 OBP!