Saturday, October 11, 2014

Useful Access Database Tool

All statistics from 1871 through 2013 in a handy reporting tool.  Needs MS Access though.

http://www.myers-art.com/BaseballApplication.html

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

A New 500 Resims (355 Anyway)

Well, I got to 355 and had enough.  DMB says 100 simulations is needed  to understand a players true baseline so we are well above the minimum.

Before our upcoming ATB 17 (!) season just a few months away, I wanted to tackle another resim baseline.  Recall, in the past two years we have tweaked the era and added players, and I figure every few years it will be valuable to re-baseline the league.  I purposely did not wait until the MLB season so that each year there is some mystery to how the newest players will perform.

The full report is here and the player cards are updated as well.  Below are some highlights for the newest players:

Batters worth a Look
.271 / .366 / .451, 31 HR - Miguel Cabrera (2013)
.270 / .382 / .395, 47 2B - Joey Votto (2012)
.243 / .345 / .422, 38 SB - Mike Trout (2013)

Batters to Pass On
.255 / .312 / .381, 19 HR - Andrew McCutchen (2012)
.228 / .299 / .358, 18 HR - Paul Goldschmidt (2013)

Pitchers worth a Look
1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.92 Adj ERA - Koji Uehara (2013)
2.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.49 Adj ERA - Fernando Rodney (2012)
2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.63 Adj ERA - Jacob McGee (2012)
3.51 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.62 Adj ERA - Clayton Kershaw (2013)
3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.66 Adj ERA - Max Scherzer (2013)

Pitchers to Pass On
3.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.91 Adj ERA - Glen Perkins (2013)
4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.53 Adj ERA - Mark Melancon (2013)

Adjusted ERA is my new stat for Resim pitcher data.  It is the pitchers ERA adjusted to reflect the defense behind him.  The adjustment is calculated using the defensive metric values from studies I've shared over the years.  Each position can add or subtract a few percentages points of ERA.  Add up the positions for a while team, weighting them for the importance of that position (ex. SS Range more important than C range).

A few examples:

Sandy Koufax (1966) looks pretty good by previous resim measures.  4.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 189 hits in 198 innings.  That is definitely worth a draft pick.  Digging deeper though, his defense was among the best in the resims.  Eddie Collins, Ron Santo, Bill Dickey, and Omar Vizquel held down the infield (along with Av/31 Harmon Killebrew at 1st) while  the Roy Thomas, Ed Delahanty, and Paul Waner roamed the outfield.  That is quite good and as a result many runs were saved.  Accounting for this gives Koufax a gaudy 4.63 ERA had the defense been average.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Randy Johnson (2001).  He simmed well with a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP but his defense was suspect in several places.   Adjusting for it brings his ERA down to 3.06.

Cherry picking some interesting cases:
3.37 adjusted to 3.16 - Roger Clemens (1986)
3.44 adjusted to 3.18 - Johnny Podres (1957)
3.30 adjusted to 3.67 - Jerry Reuss (1980)
4.21 adjusted to 4.62 - Bill Foster (1932)
3.34 adjusted to 3.60 - Jason Schmidt (2003)

The vast majority of adjustments are upward.  Since the auto draft was used, it is important to remember that the DMB AI relies heavily on defense and the the coputer fields a much better fielding team than ATB managers normally would.  As a result, only 15% of the pitchers saw their ERA improve.

Finally, it is interesting how close some of the players results are to the 500 sims from a few years ago.  Randomly picking some players to compare:

Adrian Gonzalez 2009
355 - .223 / .306 / .407
500 - .224 / .305 / .405

Benny Kauff 1915
355 - .287 / .375 / .435
500 - .284 / .373 / .428

Edgar Wesley 1925
355 - .266 / .328 / .465
500 - .269 / .332 / .465

Honus Wagner 1908
355 - .296 / .346 / .455
500 - .302 / .345 / .464

The vast majority of players remain unchanged, but there are a few curiosities:

Ted Williams 1941
355 - .321 / .451 / .560
500 - .327 / .475 / .570

Oscar Charleston 1924
355 - .324 / .407 / .604
500 - .338 / .442 / .625

Lou Gehrig 1927
355 - .299 / .407 / .622
500 - .303 / .422 / .632

Those are the three biggest changes and it is odd that they are all big names and odd they all suffered instead of improved.  I don't have an explanation.  Among full time players, 95.0 % of the time the difference OPS between the 500 resims of two years ago and this years 355 resims in were within 2.5% of each other.  But a handful of players suffered relatively wild swings.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Current era Batters May be Worth A Look Again

Click to Enlarge

Average OPS scores have been plummeting for years, mostly due to declining power #s.  No idea what that could be from (wink, wink).  There is even a chance no batter reaches 40 home runs.

For ATB this is important information.  As we all know, DMB compares a player to his peers of the era to determine how good they will pan out.  The lower the offensive season on average, the better chance a great batter will stand out.

This year, Mike Trout looks to be the best choice, by I do miss his .430 OBP!

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

All Time Manager Power Rankings Update - CORRECTION

1) 650 Pts - Justin Petronzi (+1 Chg)
2) 649 Pts - Lou Poulas (-1 Chg)
3) 628 Pts - Mike Smitko (0 Chg)
4) 609 Pts - Steve Chippendale (0 Chg)
5) 591 Pts - Jason Bernarndon (1 Chg)
6) 576 Pts - Sean Seeley (-1 Chg)
7) 563 Pts - Brad Peterson (0 Chg)
8) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski (0 Chg)
9) 540 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter (0 Chg)
10) 539 Pts - Joe Terry (0 Chg)
11) 532 Pts - TJ Olszewski (0 Chg)
12) 512 Pts - Jeff Burns (1 Chg)
13) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein (1 Chg)
14) 509 Pts - Shotgun Spratling (3 Chg)
15) 505 Pts - Matt Brody (0 Chg)
16) 495 Pts - David Kuenn (2 Chg)
17) 494 Pts - Jay Seeley (-1 Chg)
18) 494 Pts - Brian Barnes (2 Chg)
19) 489 Pts - Ivar Anderson (0 Chg)
20) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas (1 Chg)
21) 459 Pts - Joe Valenzano (5 Chg)
22) 447 Pts - Jay Hattem (3 Chg)
23) 434 Pts - Kevin Crowley (1 Chg)
24) 428 Pts - Leane Sarubbi (-2 Chg)
25) 375 Pts - Allen Cherulnik  (6 Chg)
26) 370 Pts - Gary Gambino (3 Chg)
27) 306 Pts - Justin Burnson (-15 Chg)
28) 306 Pts - Scott Carter (7 Chg)
29) 297 Pts - Mike Green (7 Chg)
30) 297 Pts - Justin Bossert (NA Chg)
31) 275 Pts - Bruce Nalepka (7 Chg)
32) 267 Pts - Mike Murphy (5 Chg)
33) 260 Pts - Michael Rippe (-10 Chg)
34) 256 Pts - Larry Caggiano (5 Chg)
35) 238 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh (-8 Chg)
36) 235 Pts - Jim Nugent (4 Chg)
37) 235 Pts - Richard Madachik (4 Chg)
38) 234 Pts - Matt Hinzpeter (-10 Chg)
39) 231 Pts - Mike Wishnick (3 Chg)
40) 231 Pts - Scott Salley (3 Chg)
41) 231 Pts - Al Hastick (NA Chg)
42) 225 Pts - Dennis Slinger (2 Chg)
43) 225 Pts - Ted Knorr (2 Chg)
44) 221 Pts - Ben Matsil (-14 Chg)
45) 216 Pts - Bob Lessard (1 Chg)
46) 216 Pts - PJ Dodds (NA Chg)
47) 213 Pts - Paul Nebenfuer (0 Chg)
48) 210 Pts - Devon Eckhart (-16 Chg)
49) 210 Pts - Andy Matsil (-16 Chg)
50) 210 Pts - Greg Stillwagon (-2 Chg)
51) 207 Pts - Jason Schwartz (-2 Chg)
52) 204 Pts - Greg Murphy (0 Chg)
53) 198 Pts - John Wolford (-3 Chg)
54) 194 Pts - Chris Kelly (-3 Chg)
55) 192 Pts - Adam Bloomquist (-21 Chg)
56) 188 Pts - Rod Aukamp (-3 Chg)
57) 188 Pts - Adam Luther (-3 Chg)
58) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes (-3 Chg)
59) 185 Pts - Bill Nyman (-3 Chg)
60) 173 Pts - Paul Taschereau Jr (-3 Chg)
61) 167 Pts - Neil Book (-3 Chg)
62) 164 Pts - Mario Iafrate & Russ Palmer (-3 Chg)

Justin is the new leader!!!  I had a formula error.

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/All%20Time%20Managers%20Through%20ATB%20XVI.xlsx

Hall of Famers for ATB XVI

The Hall of Fame page has been updated.  New HOF'ers for this year are:









Player Cards Updated

New this year...

  1. Improved batter and pitcher graphs
  2. Pitchers:  Added RCERA and K/BB
  3. Batters:  Added ATB Value and ATB Value Runs
  4. (IF | OF | ARM) moved to the left.  THese are only available in resim stat lines.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

All Time Great Resim - The Gossamers Dethroned

OK!  100 sims for another quick All Time Greatest ATB team competition.  I eliminated the 'worst' 4 teams from our previous ATG competition and replaced them with the top 4 from ATB 16.

Eliminated
ATB 08 Van Nest Phighting Philbens (Jeff B)
ATB 11 Windy City Potato Pickers (Lou P)
ATB 12 Helena Handbaseket (Joe T)
ATB 15 John McDonald Fanclub (Joe V)

New Entrants
ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
ATB 16 John McDonald Fanclub
ATB 16 Brighton Shadows
ATB 16 Dos Equis Interesting Men

After 100 resims (regular season only), here are the results:


It may not seem like much, but over the course of 100 seasons 0.8 wins and 8 runs is a clear victory for the Pinata Beaters, who have officially dethroned the Gold Country Gossamers as the best ATB team of all time.  Well, almost officially.  A few years ago I ran a much larger competition - season by season with playoffs - to crown a champion.  That takes some time and have never repeated it.  Since then, i have run quick "100 resims" and simply taken the average results of the regular season.

For now, Justin is the well deserved champion, but one day we'll have to see how his team fares in the post season of 100 sims to crown an ultimate champ.

Congrats JP!

Monday, June 16, 2014

Data for 20 Resims

Here are  two worksheets for your perusal.

Standings Summary
Individual Player Detail

Good ride gents!  I still will be updating season records, player cards, etc, but for all intents and purposes this season is now over.  Thanks for playing!

I will leave you with this - top to bottom the NL was the superior league.  Looking at the balanced resims, only 1 of the 12 AL teams improved their record, and that was by a margin of just 1 game.  The rest of the league lost an average of 2.8 games.  A little consolation for those NL'ers with seemingly poor records compared to their AL counterparts.

20 Resims #1 - Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters

And it wasn't even close....


Is this the best ATB team of all time?  Will run a new all time great sim soon to find out.

800 OPS Batters: 
1.102 – Babe Ruth
.800 – Orator Shaffer

Sub 3.75 ERA Starters
2.78 – Garland Braxton
3.06 – Al Orth
3.23 – Jimmy Key (!)
3.31 – Monty Stratton
3.43 – Teddy Higuera

Sub 3.00 ERA Relievers
2.40 – Jacob McGee
2.46 – Tim Burke
2.52 – Al Grabowski
2.66 – Pat Jarvis

Every pitcher with more than 15 IP had an ERA under 3.43

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 14 – Jacob McGee

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Bullet Joe Rogan (by Colorado)



#24 - 61 W - Colorado Greensox
#23 - 67 W - Downsouth Brews
#22 - 70 W - Tampa Bay Muffin Stuffers
#21 - 72 W - Helena Handbasket
#20 - 70 W - New York Mammoths
#19 - 75 W - Washington Rain33
#18 - 76 W - Carlisle "Mechanics"
#17 - 78 W - Bostons Terrier
#17 - 79 W - Planet 10 Red Lectroids (tied)
#15 - 80 W - Riverside Park Furies
#14 - 81 W - Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#13 - 80 W - Sparta Hoplites
#12 - 82 W - Otherton Fishbiscuits
#11 - 84 W - Imre Artificers
#10 - 84 W - DC Chips
#9 - 86 W - Brawley Spider Monkeys
#8 - 87 W - Shamokin Miners
#7 - 86 W - Initech Consultants
#6 - 87 W - Dharma Islanders
#5 - 89 W - Little Generals
#4 - 89 W - Dos Equis Interesting Men
#3 - 91 W - Brighton Shadows
#2 - 91 W - John McDonald Fanclub
#1 - 103 W - Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters

20 Resims - #2 - John McDonald Fanclub


Such a good team, top to bottom.

800 OPS Batters: 
.867 – Turkey Stearnes

Sub 3.75 ERA Starters
3.68 – Mort Cooper
(Honorable Mentions to Cherokee Fisher, Bucky Walters, and Claude Hendrix, each at 3.80 or better)

Sub 3.00 ERA Relievers
2.42 – Eric Gagne
2.63 – Rob Murphy

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 25 – Cherokee Fisher

Bust Draft Pick
None




#24 - 61 W - Colorado Greensox
#23 - 67 W - Downsouth Brews
#22 - 70 W - Tampa Bay Muffin Stuffers
#21 - 72 W - Helena Handbasket
#20 - 70 W - New York Mammoths
#19 - 75 W - Washington Rain33
#18 - 76 W - Carlisle "Mechanics"
#17 - 78 W - Bostons Terrier
#17 - 79 W - Planet 10 Red Lectroids (tied)
#15 - 80 W - Riverside Park Furies
#14 - 81 W - Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#13 - 80 W - Sparta Hoplites
#12 - 82 W - Otherton Fishbiscuits
#11 - 84 W - Imre Artificers
#10 - 84 W - DC Chips
#9 - 86 W - Brawley Spider Monkeys
#8 - 87 W - Shamokin Miners
#7 - 86 W - Initech Consultants
#6 - 87 W - Dharma Islanders
#5 - 89 W - Little Generals
#4 - 89 W - Dos Equis Interesting Men
#3 - 91 W - Brighton Shadows
#2 - 91 W - John McDonald Fanclub