Thursday, March 31, 2011

Facebook

So many of use Facebook but not RSS feeds (Why is RSS dying? It is the best tool). I have a created a Facebook page and linked the blog posts to it.

If you are interested in seeing blog posts on facebook instead of having to read the blog, please accept the request I sent. Or choose the like button on the right.

If you don't want it, just ignore!

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Oh How Times Have Changed

And for the better! At least for the better of the league as a whole. I am going back through ATB History and attempting to capture and record as much data as I can before it's lost for good.

Check out this team roster from ATB IX - could you imagine a better cast of personnel on one squad nowadays?
  • John McGraw and Hughie Jennings 1 and 2 (.490 and .433 OBP)
  • Ted Williams (150 RBI), Tip O'Neil (.980 OPS), and Norm Cash as 3-4-5 (!)
Then closing out the lineup with
  • Great catcher Bill Dickey (.304 / .353 / .445)
  • Left Fielder Jesse Burkett (.325 AVG, .391 OBP)
  • Fred Lynn (.297 / .370 / .485 with 26 hrs)
The only weak link was Larry Doyle batting 9th. He even held his own among middle infielders with a .715 OPS.

The staff was anchored by 1-2 starter punch of Cy Blanton and Bill Bernhard, followed by a pen of Dennis Eckersley, Jim Poole, Rob Murphy, and JJ Putz.

To date, this team has the best run differential I have found at an incredible plus 269.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Volunteers Needed (5-10 minutes of your time please)!

Hi Everyone

I would like to get a few us online for 5-10 minutes tomorrow night at 9 PM to test the new Google Docs draft tool.

Several owners have logged on and provided feedback (thank you!) - and changes were made where appropriate. One last test is to make sure we don't come to a crawl with multiple users logged in at the same time.

Please drop me a line if you can participate at 9 PM Tuesday for a quick test.

Here is the address (and it is also linked on the website and blog)

Owner Swap

Hi Everyone

Jay (Ji) proud owner of the second pick of the draft is not able to take part in this years festivities. He's been replaced with Justin B who fell into a wonderful place, faced with the (likely) enviable choice between Barry Bonds and Pedro Martinez.

Ji - enjoy the family vacation and hope to see you next year!

Justin B - welcome!

Saturday, March 26, 2011

1889 AA Long and Tucker Errors

Somehow, Sean S noticed that 1889 Herman Long and 1889 Tommy Tucker literally never walked. Turns out in over 1300 AB's over the past few years, Long and Tucker not only failed to walk one time, they failed to strikeout too.

Their raw stats ended up being spot on, which is likely why no one caught it before hand. It turned out the underlying era for these two players was corrupt, causing players from 1889 AA to have this issue. Luckily, these were the only two chosen by owners in the past.

In order to prove to myself it was the era, I had to run a quick simulation after correcting. Using last years ATB XII database and existing lineups I ran one sim to see if the problem was fixed.

Long: 33 BB and 62 K in 433 AB (.226 / /.281 / .263)
Tucker: 11 BB and 12 K in 93 AB (.344 / .442 / .419)

Tucker has always been a decent backup, he might now be a viable starter at first base. The shortstop long continues to be awful.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Ross Barnes Ratings

Given the potential popularity of the gentlemen, along with the fact all of his years have previously been ineligible, I thought if fair to let everyone know of his abilities prior to the draft:

1876 Ross Barnes
Sac Bunt: Ex
Bunt for Hit: Vg
Running: Vg
Jump: Vg
Steal: Vg
2B Range: Ex
2B Error rate: 124

In a league environment of .290 / .304 / .357, Barnes batted .431 / .465 / .616.

It will be interesting to see how Barnes fairs in the world of DMB. Other recent additions from the 1800s have been very good:

1887 Tip O'Neill - .322 / .381 / .476
1886 Dan Brouthers - .302 / .376 / .435
1886 King Kelly - .310 / .399 / .380 out of the catcher spot

On the other hand, the following folks have dissappointed at least somewhat

1884 Fred Dunlap - .282 / .348 / .400
1891 Deacon McGuire - .196 / .264 / .241
1890 Jimmy Wolf - .232 / .284 / .271

(OPS scores are 100 Resim Results)

Sunday, March 20, 2011

DMB Pitcher Success and the Correlation Coefficient

I am sure I did this wrong, perhaps some of the math geeks in the league can point me in the right direction.

I wanted to find the correlation coefficient between the 100 sim resultant ERA's for our pitcher set versus various real life stats. The idea was to see which real life stat I should focus on to rank my players. The higher the number, the more confidence we have that the two sets of data are strongly related. In our case, the more confidence we would have that a great real life strikeout rate (for instance) is related to a great DMB ERA.

My application of this is extremely rudimentary and by no means can we truly peg the single real life stat that the DMB engine uses (it likely uses many). However, the results are logical in both common sense and personal experience so I think they hit the mark.

-0.31: K's Per 9 Innings
-0.31: K/BB Ratio
-0.10: HR/9

The correlation coefficient is a number between -1 and 1. The lower the number, the less the two data sets are related. The higher the number, the more they are related. This says that K's, K/BB, and HR rates have very little to do with DMB success (as determined by the 100 Sim ERA's).

This makes sense to me, as over the years I have used strikeout rates less and less in determining the order of my draft board. DMB seems to not care how a pitcher gets a batter out. Of course, a better defense would be critical for the success of non strikeout pitchers.

Home Run rate was a bit surprising, but, my instinct tells me this is negative relationship is most likely due to my laziness. The real life home run rates, in fact all the stats in this mini-study, are not era adjusted. So many of the dead ball era pitchers have minuscule home run rates which must throw the correlation equation out of whack. We have dead ball era pitchers that give up no home runs with great ERA's and current pitchers who give up a lot of home runs with great ERA's too.

0.19 - ERA

This was the entire goal of my post, to get the point across that owners should not look at the all time leaders in real life ERA and think this is a good indication of ATB success. It plainly isn't, with a correlation coefficient under 0.2.

0.51 - WHIP
Whoa! The mother load. Real life WHIP is highly related to DMB success. So much so, that one could argue all other stats in comparison on meaningless.

Breaking WHIP down into its underlying components - hit rate and walk rate - we get the following:
  • H/9 innings has a 0.47 coefficient
  • BB/9 has a 0.04 coefficient.
I have no idea if this is true or not, but seems like a positive sign that the two numbers add up to the original 0.51 WHIP coefficient.

The moral of the story? Spend as much time as possible focusing on WHIP.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Lets just make 60 games the minimum.

In an effort to confuse everyone, another rule clarification. Justin correctly pointed out that if 65 games was the minimum, my existing player file for batters was hosed up. Since I had to redo the file, lets not make an exception for Barnes, lets lower the overall requirement to 60 games.

A new batting file has been posted and the 119 new players are highlighted in yellow for those that may have already started ranking.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Another Rules Update and Ross Barnes Exception

Yikes. Someone found teams with just 20 games per season, and players who have appeared in all of them are technically eligible under the current rules:
1) For teams with less than 100 games in a season, a player from that team is only eligible if he has appeared in 95% of his teams games. For teams with more than 100 games, a player is only eligible if he has appeared in 85% of his teams game
So, they are amended once again. There is a league minimum of 65 games. So that 85% and 95% rule only works if a player has more than 65 games.

This excludes 1873 Ross Barnes, a potentially elite second basemen. Here are some quotes on the all time great:

Al Spalding - ""in my opinion one of the best all around players the game has produced."

Cap Anson - "Ross Barnes was one of the best ball players that ever wore a shoe, and I would like to have nine men just like him right now under my management. He was an all-around man, and I do not know of a single man on the diamond at the present time that I regard as his superior."

Writer Sam Crane - "Ross Barnes, in the opinion of the players who played on the same clubs with him, and also those who were his opponents, was the best second baseman the game has produced, and there are, too, many old-time players and fans who have kept in touch with baseball for forty years or so, who still think that Baines has never been excelled as a guardian of the keystone sack, even by the many stars in the position who have been before the public since."

Spalding's Official Baseball record of 1916 said Barnes was "by many considered the best second baseman in the history of Base Ball."

His obituary in the same publication said he was "one of the greatest ball players who ever lived" and "Old Base Ball players and old managers, who were expert in their judgment, considered Ross Barnes to be the most expert second baseman who had ever played the position.

"Barnes was not only a good fielder of wide range, but he was a sure fielder. He played the hardest hits with so much ease that they looked easy. Almost every second baseman, who, at some time, commands so much attention that he is esteemed to be a leader, excels in some one characteristic or another. Either he is a great thrower or fields a ball better on his right side than on his left. Such was not the case with Barnes. He was almost Base Ball perfect in everything and as expert with one arm as with the other. If a one-hand stop was to be made it seemed as if he could grasp a ball as easily with his left hand as with his right."

Barnes is not eligible for the Hall of Fame because he only played 9 seasons of major league ball and 10 is required.

In 1873 playing in all 60 of his teams games, Barnes batted .431 / .465 / .616, 1.080 OPS. He led the league in:

Plate Appearances
Runs
Hits
Doubles
Triples
Stolen Bases
Walks
Batting Average
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+
Total Bases
RAR
WAR
Runs Created
Offensive Winning Percentage
Batting Wins

Even his fielding data lines up with the anecdotal evidence - at second base despite playing only 47 games he was first in assists, and second in putouts and chances.

So, unless anyone vehemently objects, I am giving Barnes a playing time exception and making him eligible for this season and beyond.

Barnes is also sentimental favorite, a stalwart from the throwback days of ATB I when we used Tony Larussa 3 for the software.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Draft Day Extravaganza - Round 3

Round 3 is where pitching catches up offense. For our purposes, we’ve extended Round 3 to 25 players in order to account for the variety year over year. More than half of the draftees were pitchers, a far cry from the three taken in Round 2.

The average results categorize the starting pitchers into a few neat and tidy groupings. The first group of three is drafted, on average between 38th and 39th picks:

Johan Santana (2004) and Hal Newhouser (1945 & 46) have similar ERA’s but be wary of the 1.48 WHIP from Newhouser. In the 100 sims he yielded more hits than innings pitched but kept the home runs to a respectable amount, allowing his ERA to float under 4.00. Santana gave up 20+ homers on average, and despite a decent WHIP, saw his ERA float above 4.00. Cy Blanton is also an owner favorite in the third round, having been drafted 3 times in the past 5 years in this slot. Blanton didn’t show up well on my pre-draft board and wasn’t included in the 100 sim study. He had a 4.97 ERA last year but historically performs much better, averaging a 3.77 RCERA in the last 7 years.

Sticking with pitchers a little longer, the next group was drafted a little bit later, with average picks 41 and 42.5:
1997 Roger Clemens showed up best on the draft board but doesn’t live up to expectations. His 1.52 WHIP should prevent him from being a 3rd rounder. 1985 John Tudor is of the same ilk of Santana and Newhouser, while 1919 Babe Adams is a real gem. Averaging a flat draft slot of the 10th pick of Round 3, Adams 3.64 ERA and 1.25 WHIP approaches the success of first Rounder Walter Johnson. It would be a travesty if he continues to fall into the third round or later – his recent draft history:

ATB XII – Last pick of Round 3 (Lou)
ATB XI - early 4th round (Lou)
ATB X – early 5th round (Justin)
ATB IX – Late 3rd round (Jason S)
ATB VIII – 2nd round by the PC (Lou draft board)

At the risk of coming across arrogant, those are historically very good owners who have received 1st round value in the 3rd and sometimes 5th rounds – don’t let it happen again!

Taking a break from the hurlers and moving onto the batters, we start with a trio of first basemen, 1920 Goerge Sisler, 1938 Hank Greenberg, and 1886 Dan Brouthers.

What immediately pops out is how good Brouthers is, pumping out OPS scores better than 2nd rounders Albert Pujols and Jason Giambi, and comparable to 1st Rounders Jimmie Foxx, Mark McGwire, and Jeff Bagwell. He’s the real deal.

Sisler ends up surprisingly bad, though, his Ex defense is very important. Greenberg was overlooked by my pre-draft rating system but did belt 18 dingers in 149 games last year.

Next are three third basemen, one of whom is not like the others.

1953 Al Rosen and Eddie Mathews of a year later are both solid picks with OPS scores close to .750. Neither get on base at a great clip and Mathews .223 batting average is only slightly mollified by his Vg defensive rating. 1966 Dick Allen is a disappointment, his 27 home runs a big plus, but his .293 OBP simply unacceptable. Maybe 1972 is the best choice for him.

Moving to the outfield we find another gem in 1925 negro league star, Oscar Charleston. The speedy center fielder hits for moderate power and a decent on base percentage, while batting close to .300 and playing simply stellar defense. He’s true 2nd round value.

I personally always rated Frank Robinson higher but the numbers don’t lie, his .249 batting average and .317 OBP are lower than they need to be for the 9th pick of round 3. He does hit 27 home runs and plays Vg defense, but he’s probably a 4th or 5th rounder. Al Simmons (1931) is a very nice surprise coming in at .753 OPS and a respectable OBP while 1898 Billy Hamilton gets on a base at a prolific clip (Top 15 in the game) along with a Vg defensive reputation.

The last of the batters in the study are shortstop Hughie Jennings (1896) and catcher Josh Gibson (1938 Negro Leagues). Gibson is correctly the second catcher taken and Round 3 is appropriate for a backstop with this much power. Jennings is a bit of an enigma that owners don’t quite know how to handle. On the plus side he bats close to .300 with a .374 OBP, all while playing Ex defense in a middle infield position. However, he has absolutely no power, averaging just 10 doubles a season (no triples or home runs).


Getting back to the pitchers to close out Round 3
With the exception of 1971 Vida Blue and 1901 Al Orth, each of these pitchers are roughly equal to every other starter selected in Round 3 outside the great Babe Adams. Blue is good, but the combination of highest WHIP and highest ERA in the bunch clearly labels him a bottom of the rung 3rd rounder.

Circling around to Orth, again, we have a third rounder (late this time) providing wonderful 1st round value. His 100 sim WHIP is an incredible 1.23, better than not only Adams, but 1st rounders Addie Joss, Pete Alexander, Christy Mathewson, and Randy Johnson. For kicks, his recent daft history too:

ATB XII – Round 7 (Justin)
ATB XI – Round 11 (Justin, perhaps the greatest pick of all time, he had a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in a homer park))
ATB X – Round 3 (Sean)
ATB IX – Round 3 (Sean)
ATB VIII – Round 6 (TJ)

Again, these are historically great owners who don’t need this much help when everyone passes on Al Orth.

The chart below should wrap the last three days together in a nice little bow. Batters are ranked by ATB Value*; pitchers are ranked by ERA. The first column simply lists the order in which owners have draft batters or pitchers (no cross pollination). The second column is the players rank in ATB Value or ERA. Major differences between this two are highlighted in red (drafted too early) and green (should be drafter sooner).

*For those that may not remember, ATB Value is my attempt at the single most important batter stat for ATB – encompassing offensive skills (OBP & SLG, weighted towards OBP), defense (Range or Catcher Arm), along with park factor (irrelevant in the 100 resims since all parks are neutral).



Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Draft Day Extravaganza - Round 2

Yesterday’s review of Round 1 revealed an awesome factoid – 90% of the players were drafted in each of the five years we looked at. Further, considering Tip O’Neill was only eligible three years ago and was drafted in the first round three times, we can logically conclude he would have been a 5 for 5 guy as well. This means 19 of the possible 20 players were all drafted in the first round five years in a row. Either our ownership base is incredibly smart or we are stuck in our ways, leaving value on the table to fall into Round 2.

Contrarily, only 30% of the Round 2 average selections were drafted five years running in the round. Also, on average only 3 pitchers are drafted in all of Round 2. Lets start with here.

Round 2 Pitchers
In the heart of Round 2 – picks 11 though 13 – three pitchers are drafted back to back to back on average. 1908 Addie Joss and 1915 Petey Alexander are two very good pitchers, especially Joss who averages a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Joss’ 100 sim results likely make him a legit first rounder, at least entering the argument of replacing Christy Mathewson. Cheating and looking at the third round, Alexander, while maybe a fine 2nd Round Pick, is certainly going to soon compared with other pitchers such as Babe Adams and Al Orth.

Each year the real life great Sandy Koufax gets drafted in the second round. Each year he is a disappointment. I should have thought to include him in the 100 resims and unfortunately we don’t have a baseline for him. He’s a risk if you want to gamble on him.

Underrated 2nd Rounders

Four players stand out as possible grab picks – selections where you can jump on the player earlier than normal but assured of top performance.

George Brett 1980 is the best third basemen in the game and is a fine early second round pick. Due to his Vg defense, a strong case can be made that he is best suited as a first rounder. Contrarily Jeff Bagwell 1994 likely takes a hit as a result of the resims. Long thought a top-3 first basemen, Bagwell struggled in the all important OBP department, though, he has been confirmed as an elite home run threat.

1961 Norm Cash on the other hand looks like a first round pick seen through the eyes of the 100 Resims. His .838 OPS and .388 OBP should make him a trendy pick – he’s better than Jimmie Foxx and Mark McGwire, both first rounders year in and year out.

1886 King Kelly is another interesting case. He is clearly the best catcher in the game (Gibson has a .768 OPS but a poor .316 OBP) but will his .380 SLG prevent him from moving up the draft boards? Originally I thought the 100 resims would reveal a clear first round option for Kelly, now I am not so sure.

Round 2 Outfielders

Clearly the quality of outfielders in Round 2 pales in comparison to their brethren of Round 1. There are no .800 OPS players to be found and only 1 with an OPS over .775. What immediately stares out at yo is the lack of good OBP players. There is plenty of power – McCovey, Mays, and Walker each hit 27 or more, but none have an OBP better than .330.

That leaves the weaker power players such as Duffy, Shoeless Joe, both of whom get on base at a decent enough clip but hit for little power. Joe DiMaggio and Rickey Henderson try to split the difference while Hack Wilson is just flat out bad.

McCovey ends up the best power hitter and Shoeless Joe the best of the doubles men. Jackson should move up in the rankings while Wilson should fall off completely.

Rd 2 - Infielders

Fred Dunlap (1884) ended up being a top-2 second basemen. As we saw yesterday, Hornsby rightfully goes early in round 1 (pick 9) but Nap Lajoie (.718 OPS) is normally a late first rounder too. Dunlap is just as good defensively and outhits Lajoie by 30 OPS points. Perhaps Dunlap is correctly positioned as an early second round pick, but Nap needs to come down a few notches.

And then a few notches more. 1914 Eddie Collins is a better defender than Nap and also has an OBP 40 points better. It’s clear Lajoie has historically been drafted much too early.

Albert Pujols(2008) and Jason Giambi (2001) offer two options for owners. Giambi is the better hitter, almost entirely due to his ability to draw a walk, but is bad enough on defense to be forced to play DH. Do you want a DH as a 2nd rounder? If the answer is no, owners gravitated toward Pujols – a 20 home run threat with an above average OBP.

The last pick of the second round, and 2 of the past 5 years dropping all the way into the 4th round, is John McGraw. This confounds me. The ability to get on base (sorry purists!) is the single most important aspect of a players repertoire. McGraw gets on base at a .45% clip, third best in all of ATB. He also steals 76 bases a year and is tied for 6th in batting average. Maybe this is the year he starts to get drafted early.

Tomorrow we’ll finish up with Round 3.

* Please note I have incorrectly listed Willie McCovey as an outfielder, he's a first basemen.

Introducing...

Brad P's Londonderry Machine




Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Draft Day Extravaganza - Round 1

About five years ago the ATB front office decided to start maintaining historical records. What a shame this decision didn’t happen 13 seasons ago, but it is what it is. Since then, fairly meticulous records have been kept on all aspects of the game. Today, specifically, we can analyze the draft tendencies of our ownership over the past five seasons.

In this study, we’ll examine the first three rounds of each draft to better understand how, as a whole, we collective operate. How many pitchers do we draft? When does the first closer come off the board? Who are the recurring value picks every draft? How about the recurring busts?

Before starting, a few of the ground rules and assumptions:
  • We have averaged between 16-20 teams over the past 5 years. This means between 48 and 60 players are drafted in Rounds 1-3 every year.
  • A total of 107 players were drafted during this timeframe, approximately two times the amount of players strictly required. This lends credence to the understood generalization that no two ATB drafts are alike.
  • For this study, I excluded any player drafted just one time (in the first 3 rounds) during the past 5 years. This is a large pool of 41 players. As a note of mild interest, several were drafted in Round 1 – 1884 Roger Conner, 1930 Chuck Klein, 1915 Eddie Plank, and 1884 Tommy Bond – but were never drafted ‘early’ in another ATB season again.
ATB owners clearly believe offense is the key to winning. Period. Overall, 68% of all players drafted in rounds 1-3 are, unsurprisingly batters. Anecdotally, this is due to the belief that good pitchers can be found late in the draft, which is true, but I also wonder if there is a market correction due. Good and even great pitchers have cropped up late each year – Bobby Shantz, Lady Baldwin, Pete Conway, Ben Sanders, Cannonball Titcomb, and Scott Stratton come to mind, but there are more – but one day, perhaps this season, we are going to find that all these hidden gems are no longer hidden. One smart owner will buck the trend and draft all of these previous gems early and run away with a division.

In round 1, 75% of the picks were batters, 85% in Round 2, dropping to 48% in Round 3. This is very telling and any owner wanting to make a pitching first move should do so in the second round – it might be too late by Round 3.

The Top 4
The Top 4 picks, in order, for virtually every draft are Babe Ruth (1920 or 1921), Barry Bonds (2001 or 2002), Mickey Mantle (1956 or 1957), and Pedro Martinez (2000 and purposely forgetting my personal disaster of a 1999 selection several years ago). Only once did one of these players fall out of the Top 4, and that was Mantle going as the 5th pick in ATB VIII. He was left on the table for 2004 Randy Johnson who ended up fairing well (3.53 ERA in a ptichers park) but not ultimately worth the value

Picks 5-8
The next four selections a bunched together and, on average, are virtually interchangeable from one season to the next. 1941 Ted Williams, 1995 Greg Maddux, 1927 Lou Gehrig, followed by Randy Johnson (1999 or 2004). This year due to the unveiling of 100 sim results along with a stellar ATB XII campaign, I am sure Lady Baldwin circa 1885 will bump Johnson from this list.. Baldwin has been in the league two years, first drafted in ATB XI in round 21 by Brian B. Last year he jumped to the 40th pick of the draft, at the end of Round 2. This year, look for a 4th to 8th pick overall selection for the dead ball era phenom.

Looking at rounds 1-8, for the most part owners are doing a great job in getting the order correct. The charts below separate batters from hitters and compare the 100 sim results for each of them.
The only possible issue is that Ted Williams is a bit underrated. He out hits Mantle, but Mantle gets the edge every year in draft slot because of his defense.

Closing Out Round 1 – Pitchers

With just two other pitchers taken in Round 1, let’s close them out. 1912 or 1913 Walter Johnson has been the consensus 12th pick while Christy Mathewson 1905, 1908, or 1909, comes in at #15. Johnson is a legit first rounder but either I picked a bum year for the 100 resims or Mathewson isn’t as good as we all thought.

The Big Train might even be better than the aforementioned Randy Johnson – his ERA is similar but his WHIP is a full .13 lower. Look for Johnson to be Top 10 this year.

Batters through the 20th Pick


Here is where things get a little interesting for the batters. It seems natural to compare the infielders and outfielders amongst themselves so that’s what we’ll do.

Once again, owners are getting the order of players correct if not necessarily the drat slot. 1924 Rogers Hornsby, 1908 Honus Wagner, followed by 1935 Arky Vaughan and 1901 Nap Lajoie is the perfect order. Hornsby hits a ton with Av defense while Wagner (Ex) and his weaker counterparts (Vg) have above average defense. This further supports the order of the draft being correct, but does Wagner’s defense really make up for 36 points in OBP and 26 points in slugging? I can’t imagine it does, yet Wagner is routinely drafted around the same time as Hornsby.

Jimmie Foxx (1932) is a pure power hitter belting 39 home runs a season and maxing out at 53 in the 100 resims. He’s a fine choice at 11 for owners basing their offense on a middle of the order elite power hitter. Mark McGwire (1998) is also a power hitting first rounder, although a cheaper alternative down at pick 20.

The last four batters to speak about are all star outfielders. 1887 Tip O’Neil (.856 OPS) and 1948 Stan Musial (.839 OPS) are the best of the hitters in the bottom half of the first round, but are also just adequate with the glove. Ty Cobb (1909, 1915, 1917) offers Vg defense with well above average hitting and Tris Speaker 1916 offers Ex defense with slightly above averaging offense.

In all, one can’t argue with the average drafting choices of ATB owners. Aside from nitpicking with the tail end of the first round and a little extra love for Randy Johnson, Round 1 has been surprisingly spot on with the 100 resim results.

I am over 1000 words; lets split the study into multiple posts.

One more item to note though. For comparison purposes, here are the average OPS results by position during the 100 re-sims.
.800 – Right Field
.785 – First Base
.781 – Third Base
.771 – Center Field
.770 – Left Field
.707 – Second Base
.701 – Catcher
.679 – Shortstop

Monday, March 14, 2011

Rules Page Update (2nd)

Here.

I neglected to mention two more rules update. 1) We have also expanded eligible pitchers, and 2) Year criteria has been moved from 1883-2010 to 1871-2010

Further, I have eliminated the "10 FA Moves per year rule". This limit has been approached once in the past several years and frankly it isn't worth the hassle of tracking team by team.

See below for the fullset of rules that govern ATB XII

Rules for ATB XIII


LEAGUE MAKEUP

- Multiple divisions dependent upon the total number of owners.

- Division winners plus three wild card teams make the playoffs (6 total).

- DH's will be used in both leagues

ROSTERS/TEAM OPTIONS

- 30 Player Rosters (all active). The 5 additional players are necessary because of injuries that occur during the simulation.

- Positional makeup is entirely up to the owner. You can carry as many pitchers or batters as you would like, as long as you have 30 total.

- Park can be any year, for any stadium 1871 through 2010.

- Team Name is entirely up to owner

STADIUM SELECTION

- Any park from 1901 till know is fair game

- Please submit the year and the park you want (park factors change from year to year)

- DMB uses different PF's for each combination of handedness and hit type (LH/RH for 1B, 2B, 3B, HR).
- In the off chance two owners select the same park, preference will be given to the owner with the worst draft slot.

- We can't have two of the same parks (two Fenway's, two Yankee stadium's, etc) even if owners request different years.

PLAYER POOL

  • Any batter with at least 450 PA is eligible.

  • Any pitcher with 50 IP is eligible.

  • Only pitchers with at least 20 Games Started can be considered a full time starter in ATB.

  • Any pitcher is allowed to spot start, even if they do not meet the 20 GS minimum.

  • There are 5 negro league players eligible as well.

Exceptions have been introduced as of the ATB XIII season. These exceptions are designed to allow more players who do not meet the above requirements (because they are from the 1800s and strike shortened seasons) a chance to be drafted.

1) For teams with less than 100 games in a season, a player from that team is only eligible if he has appeared in 95% of his teams games. For teams with more than 100 games, a player is only eligible if he has appeared in 85% of his teams games.

2) Catchers need only have 370 Plate Appearances, instead of the 450 currently required.

3) Pitcher's who have appeared in at least 30% of their team games are now eligible even if they have less than 50 IP.


4) Reminder that all eligible players are posted on the ATB Home Page.

- POSITION REQUIREMENTS. As an owner, I want to have the ability to start a player out of position if I want to. If I want all offense and no defense, I should be allowed to start by first basemen in the outfield and be damned with the consequences. The problem of course is knowing what the limits are. Since defensive ratings are determined by me at the time the player is created, it leaves too much leeway as go guessing. If a player happened to get garbage time in 1 game completely out of position should he be eligible for that position in DMB? If so, how should I determine ratings after just one (or a handful of games played)?

However, the DMB engine does allow for this, and has a built in mechanism to downgrade defensive ratings when players are out of position. It just needs a little help and so the following rules are in place:
* Any player who appears in at least 45% of his "real-life" games played a the position will not suffer a penalty
* For players with more than two rated positions, this percentage is dropped to 20%
* If, and only if, an owner wants to break this rule, I will remove the DMB rating from this second position and allow DMB to automatically downgrade as they see fit.
* If exemption is not requested, all ratings remain as is and owners are free to keep these players in back up positions.
2 Position Examples:
- Jim Hickman played 74 games at 1B and 79 in CF - 48% and 52% respectively. He is eligible at both positions.
- Dick Allen. played 91 at 3B, 47 in LF - 66% and 34% respectively. He is only eligible to start full time 3B
3 Position Examples
- Stan Musial. 41 LF, 64 CF, 76 RF - 23%, 35%, 42% respectively. Eligible to start full time at all three.
- Randy Ready. 51 2B, 52 3B, 16 LF - 43%, 44%, 13% respectively. He is only eligible to start full time at 2B and 3B.

DRAFT DAY

- Draft Order determined randomly by commissioner using the Excel "Random Number Generator" function.

- 30 Round Draft

- Each owner is pre-assigned a specific 10 minute block of time to make a selection. If you miss your block of time, you are skipped, and the next owner is allowed to make a selection once his block of time has started. The skipped owner can go back and make the missed selection at any time thereafter.

- In general, the draft runs from 9 AM to 10 PM each weekday. For those who can't make early picks you can email me your pick the night before.

- Owners can also submit lists to me, in order of preference, and I will post a pick for them if they wish. This is not recommended, but can be accommodated.

TRADES AND FREE AGENTS

- Unlimited Trades, Free Agent, and DL Moves

WEEKLY SCHEDULE

- 15 Days Simulated Per Week over the course of 12 Weeks

* Sunday - Lineups and Free Agents Due 8 PM+ 3 Days Run
* Monday - Thursday - 3 Days Run per night

* If for whatever reason games can not be run on a given day, they will be made up the following day. This has no impact on owners as there is no ability to submit lineup changes between game days. Spreading games out over multiple days is simply for enjoyment purposes.

- If you request a Free Agent (straight add drop or DL) - assume you are going to get him and insert into your lineup. If something goes haywire and more than claim is submitted for the same player, we'll just delay the first day of sims by 24 hrs and straighten out the owner who missed out.

Updates to Website Complete

All links, files, information pertaining to ATB XIII have now been updated. Please let me know if you come across something amiss.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Killing the Message Board (And a Comish Request to Onwers)

I've decided to attempt an upgrade to the ATB draft experience. This is for two reasons

1) My place of employment has been cracking down on internet abuse. I can't spend a lot of time helping to administer the draft this year. This is a scary proposition for me, since one unknowing owner error could result in a busted team. While owner errors have always been 'buyer beware, tough luck' it can still ruin the enjoyment of a season and in the past I liked to handhold as much as possible to avoid this.

2) We all know the draft is a bear. It is extremely challenging to follow and keep up to date on.

Introducing Google Docs to save the day. I have created a spreadsheet in Google Docs that allows multiple owners to log in at the same time, edit at the same time, and chat at the same time.

Most importantly, it contains the list of players an owner can choose from, and every owner selection will remove that player from "the board" completely.

Here's how it works:

1) Selecting your player. Use the CTRL-F function to bring up a player search window. After typing in the player you want, choose "find".


2) This will take you to the player you're looking for. To draft him, simply type in (or select via drop down window) your team Name, Round of the pick, and the year of the player. That's it!

There is validation in the spreadsheet that forces you too choose a valid team name, a valid round (#1-30) and a valid year (no 18th century revolutionary war players Sean).

It also has a drop down window if you would rather not type:


3) The doc will auto populate your pick in another tab that contains the draft time slots and results.


4) It will also populate a team specific tab


Below is the link. Please take a moment to try this out and make sure it works for you. I try not to ask much from owners, but this is critical to draft day. If there are issues with this new idea, we need to flush them out right away.

Google Docs Draft Room

Thursday, March 10, 2011

MLB Experts Discuss Babe Rtuth



If you watch a bunch of baseball history video, you might find this amusing.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Draft Schedule Published

The day by day times for each draft pick can be found here as well as linked permanently on the Draft Day page.

The first tab contains a daily schedule, the second a schedule broken down by team.

We'll get the draft done in 8 and 1/2 business days. Teams will average 3 picks per day, and never more than 4 or less than 2. Draft runs from 9 AM to PM (Eastern Time) daily with breaks between 12-1 and 5-6.

Introducing...

A few logo's and team names








Manetheren Red Eagles (Lou P)










Nottingham Outlaws (Lee W)











Helena Handbasket (Joe T)

Monday, March 7, 2011

Owners Page Up and Running

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/owners.htm

Send me your team names and logos (optional) as you get them.

Current Owners

For now, we'll keep the list of this seasons owners here. 16 Confirmed so far.

March 7th Updates
Lee W - Introducing Lee who will be taking part in his first ATB season. Lee found us on the DMB forums and is our first non-US participant. His squad will be headquartered out of the UK.

March 6th Updates
Sean/Jay - Sean has a career .537 winning percentage and is one of three owners to have 2 world titles. This year, he teams up with his brother Jay. Together they have 14 years of ATB experience.

March 4th Updates
Brad P- 4th all time with 939 wins, Brad's squads have been to the playoffs 5 times in his career. Inventor of the ATB LIMA plan, he usually focuses on offense, offense, offense.

Jay H - Ji hopes his third campaign in ATB is his breakout season. To date, his squads have fought to high-70 win squads, but have shown periods of great performance.

March 3 Updates
Brian - Improving year over year for three consecutive, Brian is poised for his first winning season and playoff appearance.

Ivar - Trying to rebound from a dismal 63-99 ATB XII campaign, Ivar enters his 5th season looking to improve upon his career high of 87 wins.

Justin - The current World Champion and #1 ranked owner in ATB history. Justin is first all time with 1165 wins and has 2 world series championships to his name.

Leanne - Back for her third season, Leanne is hoping to improve upon her 87 win rookie campaign.

Matt/Paresh - Entering his 4th season, Matt cajoled Paresh into co-owning the Willets Point franchise. Matt's previous best was an 80 win campaign a few seasons ago.

Shotgun - back for his third season, shotgun is looking for his first winning season and playoff appearance.

TJ O - At 936, TJ has the 5th most wins in ATB history and is looking to make his second World Series appearance

March 2 Update
Allen A - Third time owner looking for his first championship. The Brews took the world by storm last year, jumping out to a first place lead before fading as the summer wore on.

Jason B - One of three owners to have a career winning percentage over .600. The Fanclub are looking for the first World Series appearance in ATB XIII.

Jeff B - In his 6th season, Burns has had two playoff appearances, a first place finish, and a 98 win squad.

Joe T - Playoff bound in two of his four seasons, Helena looks to improve upon their 92 win season last year and make it back to the World Series for the second time.

Lou P - The Comish lost his first place in the owners standings but has made the playoffs 10 of 12 seasons.

Mike S - After crafting perhaps the best regular season team in ATB history last year, Smitko is fighting to get to the World Series and obtain his 2nd World Series victory.

Steve C - Owner of a league best .619 career winning percentage, the Chips were playoff bound in 3 of 3 seasons, winning the series

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Current Owners

For now, we'll keep the list of this seasons owners here. 16 Confirmed so far.

March 6th Updates
Sean/Jay - Sean has a career .537 winning percentage and is one of three owners to have 2 world titles. This year, he teams up with his brother Jay. Together they have 14 years of ATB experience.

March 4th Updates
Brad P- 4th all time with 939 wins, Brad's squads have been to the playoffs 5 times in his career. Inventor of the ATB LIMA plan, he usually focuses on offense, offense, offense.

Jay H - Ji hopes his third campaign in ATB is his breakout season. To date, his squads have fought to high-70 win squads, but have shown periods of great performance.

March 3 Updates
Brian - Improving year over year for three consecutive, Brian is poised for his first winning season and playoff appearance.

Ivar - Trying to rebound from a dismal 63-99 ATB XII campaign, Ivar enters his 5th season looking to improve upon his career high of 87 wins.

Justin - The current World Champion and #1 ranked owner in ATB history. Justin is first all time with 1165 wins and has 2 world series championships to his name.

Leanne - Back for her third season, Leanne is hoping to improve upon her 87 win rookie campaign.

Matt/Paresh - Entering his 4th season, Matt cajoled Paresh into co-owning the Willets Point franchise. Matt's previous best was an 80 win campaign a few seasons ago.

Shotgun - back for his third season, shotgun is looking for his first winning season and playoff appearance.

TJ O - At 936, TJ has the 5th most wins in ATB history and is looking to make his second World Series appearance

March 2 Update
Allen A - Third time owner looking for his first championship. The Brews took the world by storm last year, jumping out to a first place lead before fading as the summer wore on.

Jason B - One of three owners to have a career winning percentage over .600. The Fanclub are looking for the first World Series appearance in ATB XIII.

Jeff B - In his 6th season, Burns has had two playoff appearances, a first place finish, and a 98 win squad.

Joe T - Playoff bound in two of his four seasons, Helena looks to improve upon their 92 win season last year and make it back to the World Series for the second time.

Lou P - The Comish lost his first place in the owners standings but has made the playoffs 10 of 12 seasons.

Mike S - After crafting perhaps the best regular season team in ATB history last year, Smitko is fighting to get to the World Series and obtain his 2nd World Series victory.

Steve C - Owner of a league best .619 career winning percentage, the Chips were playoff bound in 3 of 3 seasons, winning the seri

Draft Order and Divisional Alignment

The Random Number generator has spoken!

We are short 1 owner for which I will identify in the coming weeks. For now, they are "Team 18" and were included in the random number generator logic for the Draft and Divisional alignment selection.

Draft Order
1) Brian B
2) Jay H
3) Jeff B
4) Sean/Jay
5) Lou P
6) TJ O
7) Lee W
8) Mike S
9) Leanne S
10) Shotgun S
11) Allen
12) Justin P
13) Matt B
14) Joe T
15) Jason B
16) Steve C
17) Brad P
18) Ivar A

The divisions worked out as follows.



If you are into this sort of thing, here were the random number generator results for the Draft Order:

Brian - 0.203057898
Jay H - 0.209318504
Jeff -- 0.216479973
Sean -- 0.272816238
Lou - - 0.431145413
TJ - -- 0.444368063
Lee W 0.548811352
Mike -- 0.579490148
Leanne -0.579991305
Shotgun-0.595902071
Allen - 0.701683563
Justin -0.734963481
Matt -- 0.745091035
Joe - - 0.764854707
Jason - 0.844037279
Steve-- 0.854770056
Brad -- 0.948855829
Ivar -- 0.95123167

And for the divisional alignment:

Sean -- 0.0431365
Ivar -- 0.0784048
Brad -- 0.0791826
Joe - - 0.2157355
Matt - -0.4901012
Leanne--0.5653147
Lou - --0.5716793
Lee W-0.6661489
Mike - -0.7569575
TJ - - -0.7785656
Jeff - -0.7817023
Justin -0.7895316
Brian - 0.8058091
Jason - 0.8765762
Jay H - 0.9132655
Steve - 0.9180513
Shotgun-0.9315152
Allen - 0.9346187

Friday, March 4, 2011

Rules Page Update

Here.

Pertinent changes (that we've already discussed):

PLAYER POOL

  • Any batter with at least 450 PA is eligible.

  • Any pitcher with 50 IP is eligible.

  • Only pitchers with at least 20 Games Started can be considered a full time starter in ATB.

  • Any pitcher is allowed to spot start, even if they do not meet the 20 GS minimum.

  • There are 5 negro league players eligible as well.

Exceptions have been introduced as of the ATB XIII season. These exceptions are designed to allow more players who do not meet the above requirements, because they are from the 1800s and strike shortened seasons, a chance to be drafted.

1) For teams with less than 100 games in a season, a player from that team is only eligible if he has appeared in 95% of his teams games. For teams with more than 100 games, a player is only eligible if he has appeared in 85% of his teams games.

2) Catchers need only have 370 Plate Appearances, instead of the 450 currently required.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

100 Sims Complete

Last nights pitcher inconsistency post marked the end of the 100 sim review process. In the coming days and weeks look for an announcement for the start of the next ATB season.

For simplicity sake, I have compiled all of the 100 Sim Results on this single web page.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

100 Sim Results - Pitcher Conistency

10 days ago I posted about the great inconsistencies among batters. Today, in a similar vein, we focus on a just few of the more interesting pitchers.

By far, the least consistent pitcher in the sim was 1933 Carl Hubbell. When things were going well, Hubbell pitched fine turning in a sub-4.00 ERA 16 times. However, and this was more often the case, when things were off for the southpaw he was very erratic with an era over 5.50 fifteen times. Here's his "Min, Average, Max" key stat lines.


The most consistent pitcher was 1885 Lady Baldwin. Given that his best season is very close to that of Pedro Martinez's best, and the fact he is most consistent, make him the best pick overall? Baldwin had 36 seasons with an ERA under 3.00 and just four (!) with an ERA over four. Pedro was better with only 1 season over four, but that is by no means a dramatic victory for late 1990's star.

However, it's clear by these two stat lines there is a major difference between the two. In terms of ERA their best and worst seasons overall (by RCERA) are similar but it's a much different story for those seasons in between.

First the Max, Min, Average. As you can plainly see the Average state line is more than 1/2 a run better for Martinez.


Further, categorizing into buckets of success we can see Martinz is routinely throwing seasons with an RCERA under 3.00 (87 of 100). Baldwin, while great, tossed just 13 seasons with an RCERA in this range.

Standard Deviation Scores added to the Batters Max Min Report

Here