Friday, January 31, 2014

Exhibition Standings

3 More Games Tonight -

7 - 2: Joe V
7 - 2: Jason B
7 - 2: Justin B
6 - 3: Justin P
6 - 3: Matt B
6 - 3: Allen C
6 - 3: Brad P
6 - 3: Lou P
5 - 4: Shotgun S
5 - 4: Jeff B
5 - 4: Joe T
5 - 4: Sean S
5 - 4: TJ O
4 - 5: Mike M
4 - 5: Dave K
4 - 5: Mike S
4 - 5: Gary G
3 - 6: Brian B
3 - 6: Al H
3 - 6: PJ D
2 - 7: Ivar A
2 - 7: Jay H
2 - 7: Greg M
1 - 8: Steve C

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Insanity or Genius? Time Will Tell About PJ D

  • We applauded when new owner PJ D drafted Willie Wells in the first.  Plus bat and Ex/79 defense, what is not to like for a middle infielder.
  • We whispered in circles about George Hall in the 2nd.  Sure, he can rake, but it is difficult to hide a 342 error rate.  Hell, it's difficult to type a 342 error rate.
  • When the Fr fielding Sam Thompson went in the third, we convinced ourselves yet another DMB rookie doesn't understand defense.
  • Lipe Pike @ Vg/123 in center we hoped PJ was coming around..
  • But then after breather for some solid pitchers, PJ went back to offense and landed ... Pr/107 Frank Thomas.
  • And then Pr/117 Bill Joyce
  • And tonight when Av/209 Ed Swartwood popped up on Google Docs...
... my head exploded.  We will soon find out how important defense really is. This is easily the worst defensive team in DMB history.

Either way, it is pure pleasure to have PJ in the league.  New ideas are always welcome and in some cases, sorely needed.

Exhibition Standings

5 - 1: Joe V
5 - 1: Brad P
5 - 1: Justin B
5 - 1: Sean S
4 - 2: Matt B
4 - 2: Jason B
4 - 2: Dave K
4 - 2: Lou P
4 - 2: Mike S
3 - 3: Justin P
3 - 3: Al H
3 - 3: Allen C
3 - 3: Shotgun S
3 - 3: Jeff B
3 - 3: Joe T
3 - 3: TJ O
2 - 4: Brian B
2 - 4: Mike M
2 - 4: Greg M
2 - 4: Gary G
1 - 5: Ivar A
1 - 5: PJ D
1 - 5: Steve C
0 - 6: Jay H

Impact of Draft Position

Nothing too exciting here, but Mike S and I were talking the other day about how yearn for an early pick.  It got me thinking of updating an old post (can't find it) about which teams either went to the playoffs or won the world series and comparing that to their place in the draft.

This time I wanted to focus on wins:

Click to Enlarge
There is too much noise to say anything definitive - ATB has changed so much year over year - but it does appear a Top 5 pick certainly helps a great deal.  Averaging the # of wins in groups of 5:

1-5 :  85.2
6-10 : 77.0
11-15: 81.4
16-20: 82.2
21+ :: 75.5

My gut tells me the drop off from 6-10 is now 5 or so slots later, almost entirely due to the inclusion of the 1800s batters in ATB 11 and the Negro Leaguer's last year.

Don't like your slot, have no fear.  Every position except 22 has had at least 1 winning season.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Exhibition Standings

'Tis the part of the draft where we run some exhibition games.  Will try to get about 20 games in.

I goofed on these first ones.  Some teams played with not enough position players and I used the wrong schedule.  Oops, but no real harm.  This is the last time a team will play a 3 game series.

Current standings:
3 - 0: Joe V
3 - 0: Matt B
3 - 0: Jason B
2 - 1: Justin P
2 - 1: Brian B
2 - 1: Al H
2 - 1: Brad P
2 - 1: Jeff B
2 - 1: Dave K
2 - 1: Justin B
2 - 1: Sean S
2 - 1: Mike S
1 - 2: Mike M
1 - 2: Ivar A
1 - 2: Allen C
1 - 2: Shotgun S
1 - 2: Joe T
1 - 2: TJ O
1 - 2: Greg M
1 - 2: Lou P
1 - 2: Gary G
0 - 3: Jay H
0 - 3: PJ D
0 - 3: Steve C

Wednesday Trades - Brian and Joe at it Again

Brian sends 17th and 21st for Joe T's 15th and 25th

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Tuesday Trades

Brian B sends his 18 and 19 to Joe T for a 13 and 28

Monday, January 27, 2014

Monday Trades

1) Joe T sends his 9 and 17  to Lou P for his 11 and 12

2) Al H sends Wade Boggs and his 12th round pick to Justin P for his 8th and 10th round

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Helena Logo

Joe T's Helena Handbasket franchise is back for a 7th season.  Here's his logo:

Helena Handbasket

Friday, January 24, 2014

Real Life Batting and Pitching Totals

For our teams so far

Batting Totals

Pitching Totals

Friday Trades

Lou sends 5th, 9th and 13th picks to Shotgun for his 5th, 10th, and 14th

Brian sends 6th, 7th, and 20th round picks to Gary G for his 5th, 8th, and 28th picks.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Jeff B Announces Terrier Franchise

Jeff B's Bostons Terrier

Stock Up, Stock Down (In the Early Going Anyway)

Most of the draft board chatter, especially through the 1st round, centered around how deep this draft seemed to be.  There were no 1st round blunders that we've grown accustomed to from years past - no Sandy Koufax, Mordecai Brown, or (cough) Jimmie Foxx in the top-10.

I thought it would be interesting to test this evidence and see how true it really is.

Round 1 - Stock Down
Willie Wells and Turkey Stearnes

After an abysmal showing with TJ O last year (.232 / .309 / .388), wells stuck has plummeted, dropping from the 6th overall pick to long outside the top 10.  At 14 PJ D may have seemed to gamble a bit, but the 500 resims tell another story.  Wells likely just had an off year in ATB 15, batting .277 / .351 / .490 in the last 500 resim compilation.  The after season ATB XV 20 resims mostly back this up too.  With Ex/79 defense, it's a more than reasonable draft pick.

I had a love hate relationship with Stearnes last year.  I loved his extra base hits (league leading 415 Total Bases) and above average defense (Vg/95) but I am on "on base" guy and watching Turkey hover between .315 and .330 all season was tiring at times.  I vowed not to select him again but it was a close run thing.  This season, Jason B nabbed him at 22nd overall, a 5 slot drop and odds are he'll be satisfied

Round 2 - Stock Up
Tip O'Neill, Nip Winters, and Larry Walker

Sean S jumped 9 slots from last year, nabbing Tip O'neill at 21st overall.  Did he jump too early?  Likely not - in ATB 14 O'Neill went 21st and in ATB 13 he went 12th (before the 1800s reset).  Last season the left fielder batted .327 / .364 / .526 which is in line with his resim results.  This is a case of O'Neill getting drafted too late last year, not one of Sean moving too early.

Last season, Nip Winters was selected 25th overall but moved up 7 slots after I selected him 18th.  It may have been too early, but I wanted a ace who could hit this season, and Winters was only 1 of 2 options.

I am a firm believer that Ivar A is somehow related to Larry Walker.  This is Ivar's 8th season with ATB and its his 5th time drafting the right fielder.  As mentioned, I am personally enamored with on-base percentage and therefore Walker is not my type of player, at least in the early rounds, but there is no doubt few players bring the combination of stellar defense and consistent power, without giving up on batting average.  For instance, Walker hits 30 home runs per year with a .340 OBP.  Hank Aaron hits 34 home runs with a .290 on base.

Here is the full list of 1st rounders.  Please note that last year we used Rogers Hornsby 1925.:

Round 2 - Stock Down
Things start to diverge greatly in the second round.  This is to be expected so I won't spend a lot of time with words.  Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, and Jeff Bagwell all drop at least 10 slots.  I particularly like TJ O's choice of Foxx - for years, too many of them by far, the wrong Foxx year has been chosen.  Last year Matt B and the "Mechanics" made the switch from 1932 to 1933 and TJ continued making it a new trend. Thank goodness.

500 Resim:
1932 - .254 / .345 / .506 with 20 2B and 43 HR
1933 - .274 / .350 / .539 with 33 2B and 39 HR

Round 2 - Stock Up
Roger Connor and George Hall stick out like sore thumbs.  Joe T's first basemen was drafted a full 36 slots earlier this year, a round and half earlier if you prefer.  I understand why, there are very few .400 OBP players available to us, but it will be interesting to see how Joe obtains power when his first basemen averages 1 home run per season.  Not too say it is not possible or even difficult, truly, it will just be interesting.

George Hall was taken 33 slots earlier than last year, and with his 346 error rate in a no DH league, one has to wonder if Hall could have been taken a round or two later this year.  He can hit with the best, but a gamble on him falling into the 3rd or 4th round may have been worth PJ D's while.

One other item to note. Heading into this season, 1909 Eddie Collins has been selected 5 of the last 6 years.  This has been a mistake and one that Steve C did not repeat.  1914 Collins is better and likely why Steve took him 9 slots earlier than last year.

Here is the 2nd round list (with a handful of 3rd rounders sprinkled in):

Rosters Added to League Reports

I have started to load drafted players into the system and post rosters online.  A reminder:  it is every owners responsibility to check real-life data for accuracy.

For the new folks - the "League Results" link on the right contains all the pertinent in season results and reports.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

"Era" Data Errors on Six Negro League Batting Years

Unfortunately, Justin P found an error in the eligible batter file that impacts the Negro League player set.  For most, the impact is minor, but for those that rely heavily on era statistics, there is an appreciable impact.

If you look at the era stats on the batters file, please re-download. If you don't, your file is good.

Three Exhibition Games

These mean absolutely nothing.


Monday, January 20, 2014

Park Factor Averages by Division

The AL East will provide additional offense in the form of singles and triples, while home runs are just about average.  The Central really ramps up the triples while keeping singles and doubles at the average mark.  Home runs are suppressed, especially versus righties.  The West is about average with the exception of home runs, which are suppressed almost 40%.  The west also is true cookie cutter, with all fields having the same park factors for lefties and righties.

The National League east is a true home run division, with the long ball increasing 26-35%.  Triples and singles increase too (less than 10%) while doubles are about average when combining the righty/lefty factors.  The Central is an offensive minded league too, though they will accomplish it through singles, doubles, and triples.  Home runs are increased, but not nearly as much as the East. The West increases offense with singles, doubles, and triples while drastically reducing home runs by almost 60%.

Overall, owners seemed to avoid the long ball which must be related to our removal of the DH.  TJ O could care less and drafted Heavy Johnson as a first rounder, it will be mighty interesting who forsakes defense for run scoring - it just might be the 'new' edge.

Trade Announcement

This happened real time this morning, so I am a little late in posting.  Sean and Matt swap first and 2nd rounders.

To Sean S
Rd 1 (21 overall)
Rd 2 (28 overall)

To Matt B
Rd 1 (13 overall)
Rd 2 (36 overall)

Miners, Green Sox Announce Logos

Mike M's Shamokin Miners

Gary G's Colorado Green Sox

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Dosequis and Dharma Team Logos

Joe V's Dosequis Interesting Men

Justin B's Dharma Islanders

Welcome PJ!

I unfortunately haven't heard from Leanne in several weeks; I don't think she even knows the draft starts tomorrow.  Given this, I felt it best to replace her.

Welcome PJ D!

Owners Page Updated

Here you'll find email addresses, Team Names, and Logos.  Two team logo's have officially been submitted:

Greg M's Initech Consultants

Lou P's Imre Artificers

Many owners have the same team names as last year.  For those, I took the liberty of keeping the same log from last year as well.  Please feel free to change.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

History of Picks 5 & 6

Pedro Martinez - 2000
Has a great chance to have his best year pitching ever with home games in Southside park.

Mickey Mantle - 1957
The only better all around player is O-Charles

History of Picks 3 & 4

Babe Ruth - 1920
He'll certainly have a chip on his shoulder for being drafted behind Bonds

Honus Wagner - 1908
It's the earliest he's ever been drafted, but as the best infielder in the game there's little to be concerned about.

History of Picks 1 & 2

 Oscar Charleston - 1924/1925
Best Player in the Game

Barry Bonds - 2004
A little used year, but my personal favorite

Ratings Files Updated

The batter and pitcher ratings files have been updated to reflect all players added last season.  The pitcher file has also been updated to include offensive ratings such at bunting, running, etc.

Friday, January 17, 2014

League Schedule Posted

We'll play 22 intra-division games, and 12 inter-division.  No inter-league play.

Schedule posted for each in the normal League Reports link.

Joe T Trades Pick #2

Joe T sends the second overall pick in the draft to Brad P.  Several other draft picks where swapped as part of the deal:

To Joe T
Rd 1 (4th overalll)
Rd 2 (45th overall)
Rd 5 (100th overall)

To Brad P
Rd 1 (2nd overall)
Rd 2 (24th overall)
Rd 7 (145th overall)

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Too bad he can't pitch so well

Welcome Al H!

Welcome to Al H who will be our 24th owner this year.  While our other new owner Justin B came to us via the Diamond Mind Message boards, Al is a blast from my past, a childhood friend of mine from Highland Lakes, NJ

Welcome Al!

Ivar Selected Parc Jarry

Feel free to pick at will if you are next up.  Remember, you need to pick park and year.

Park Draft

Thanks for those who sent in ideas and comments about the park draft before the player draft.  Owners overwhelmingly prefer to choose a park prior to the draft, so that is what we will do.

Park draft starts on Monday, here are you draft times.

As with player draft, this is the latest time you should make a pick.  If the person before you has selected, you can draft at any time.  If the person before you has not selected, you must wait until your draft time before "skipping' them.

Eligible parks can be found on the Draft Day Page, using the Ballpark Resource file.  It contains a host of information such as dimensions, wall height, weather, and park factor.  Please remember the dimensions are not used by the DMB game engine at all.  Ignore the dimensions and look at the park factors.

The last section that includes weather, wind speed, temperature, etc is used by the game engine to fluctuate conditions on a game by game basis.  Overall, these attributes will average out to the park factor on a yearly basis.

Top 3 Picks

We need to speed things up by a day to accommodate a Park Draft, more on that this afternoon.

Pick / Owner / Player Taken Last Year in the Slot
1. Joe V----------- (1924 Oscar Charleston)
2. Joe T----------- (1920 Babe Ruth)
3. Justin P-------- (2000 Pedro Martinez)
4. Brad P---------- (2004 Barry Bonds)
5. Allen C--------- (1957 Mickey Mantle)
6. Greg M---------- (1929 Willie Wells)
7. Jay H----------- (1995 Greg Maddux)
8. PlaceHolder----- (1908 Honus Wagner)
9. Shotgun S------- (1876 Ross Barnes)
10. Justin B------- (1927 Lou Gehrig)
11. Jeff B--------- (1884 Fred Dunlap)
12. Brian B-------- (1935 Arky Vaughan)
13. Sean S--------- (1941 Ted Williams)
14. Leanne S------- (1925 Rogers Hornsby)
15. TJ O----------- (1917 Ty Cobb)
16. Mike M--------- (1922 Heavy Johnson)
17. Steve C-------- (1926 Turkey Stearnes)
18. Lou P---------- (1948 Stan Musial)
19. Mike S--------- (1980 George Brett)
20. Dave K--------- (1933 Jimmie Foxx)
21. Matt B--------- (2000 Randy Johnson)
22. Jason B-------- (1901 Nap Lajoie)
23. Gary G--------- (1939 Joe DiMaggio)
24. Ivar A--------- (1961 Norm Cash)

Draft Order: 4-6

Will be rolling these out 3 a day in reverse order.

Pick / Owner / Player Taken Last Year in the Slot
4. Brad P---------- (2004 Barry Bonds)
5. Allen C--------- (1957 Mickey Mantle)
6. Greg M---------- (1929 Willie Wells)
7. Jay H----------- (1995 Greg Maddux)
8. PlaceHolder----- (1908 Honus Wagner)
9. Shotgun S------- (1876 Ross Barnes)
10. Justin B------- (1927 Lou Gehrig)
11. Jeff B--------- (1884 Fred Dunlap)
12. Brian B-------- (1935 Arky Vaughan)
13. Sean S--------- (1941 Ted Williams)
14. Leanne S------- (1925 Rogers Hornsby)
15. TJ O----------- (1917 Ty Cobb)
16. Mike M--------- (1922 Heavy Johnson)
17. Steve C-------- (1926 Turkey Stearnes)
18. Lou P---------- (1948 Stan Musial)
19. Mike S--------- (1980 George Brett)
20. Dave K--------- (1933 Jimmie Foxx)
21. Matt B--------- (2000 Randy Johnson)
22. Jason B-------- (1901 Nap Lajoie)
23. Gary G--------- (1939 Joe DiMaggio)
24. Ivar A--------- (1961 Norm Cash)

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Draft Start Day Set: Monday January 20th

Same format as last year.  Week 1 is slow, with only 24 picks per day.  Rest of the draft is faster and we'll pick 67 per day until we finish with a short day on Thursday February 6th.

We've also had a suggestion from the stanch ownership crowd - picking parks before we start drafting.  Would love some feedback on the idea.  On one hand it makes sense and is more realistic; and anything that makes the draft more challenging is generally a positive.

On the other hand it may not be prudent to introduce so much change in one year - banishing of the DH and not being able to tailor your park to your team may be too much.

Would appreciate any feedback in the comments.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Is the Pedro Era Over?

No, but I wanted everyone to read this so bear with the awful title.

I wanted to try and gauge how important it will be to find a good hitting pitcher.  To start, I calculated the average "real-life" slash line for ATB eligible pitchers: .181 / .223 / .243.  That's anemic but actually a bit better than I expected.  

From here I thought it would be interesting to group all these pitchers into broad OPS categories to get a better idea of the distribution.  The figures below include a rough adjustment for park, but not era.  Again, real life data only.  It's admittedly a bit arbitrary and non-scientific, but should work for our purposes.

I included only those with 85 or more than 85 AB as rough estimate of starting pitchers:

 0.5%: .900+
.800 - .899
.700 - .799
.600 - .699
.500 - .599
.400 - .499
.300 - .399
.100 - .199

Their median OPS score was .480.  

One way to judge the impact is to put those lost at bats in terms of a #1 pick.  For instance, most pitchers figure to have about 100 ABs and if you choose a low end option - say Sandy Koufax who went 9 for 118 - you are basically adding an 0 for 100 out of your first your draft pick batter.

Think about that.  Lets say Stan Musial was your 1st round draft pick, if we take away 100 hits with the same distribution of extra base hits that he had in 1948, his OPS plummets from 1.152 all the down to .700.

If instead you choose a higher end option, say Robin Roberts who went 27 for 107, you would effectively drop Musial to 'only; a .790

Repeat this for every starting pitcher on the team and you can quickly see how a good hitting pitching staff can be a real bonus.

Effect of the American League Pitcher
This also got me to wondering how DMB will treat unrated pitchers.  We know most pitchers with a batting line will be awful thanks to an average real life OPS of .480, but what will DMB do to American League Pitchers in the DH era.  Will they hit better than bad hitters?  Or will they be even worse off than 1962 Bob Buhl? (It's worth the click).

Well, it's not quite Buhl but it is a worst case scenario.  Using last years ATB 15 database which is chock full of pitchers with no stats, I simmed a lone season and found pitchers combined to hit .064 / .093 / .077.  


This will undoubtedly impact the draft value of the DH era AL pitchers.  Here are a few of the bigger names that just got knocked down a peg or two:

Name (Career ATB ERA)

  • Pedro Martinez (2.68)
  • Roy Halladay (3.58)
  • Justin Verlander (3.60)
  • Roger Clemens (3.75)
  • Mike Mussina (3.87)
  • Catfish Hunter (4.02)
  • Johan Santana (4.04)
In the last three years Pedro has been drafted 2nd twice and 3rd once - will he drop to 4th or even 5th now?

Thanks to Sean who helped with the idea and many of the details for this article.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Bob Caruthers and his .971 OPS

Adding pitcher batting history into DMB is tedious work.  After a few hours there is seemingly no difference between a .130, .170, or an .060 batting average - they are all atrocious.  But every once in a while I come across a gem.

Many already know about Bob Caruthers batting prowess, but it's worth mentioning again.  In 1886 he batted .334 / .444 / .527 with 21 doubles and 14 triples.

Nice job Parisian Bob.

Divisional Alignment for ATB 16

(Post updated with owner historical wins and win percentage)

We're moving forward assuming I find a 24th owner over the next few days.  Here is the Divisional Alignment this year, as determined by random # generator in Excel.

American League East
  1. Ivar A ---- 534 W, .471 
  2. Mike M ----- 91 W, .562
  3. Brian B --- 456 W, .469
  4. Justin P - 1423 W, .587

American League Central
  1. Joe V -- 151 W, .466
  2. Jay H -- 286 W, .441
  3. Placeholder 
  4. Matt B - 480 W, .494
American League West
  1. Leanne S - 239 W, .492
  2. Allen C -- 299 W, .369
  3. Jason B -- 540 W, .556
  4. Steve C -- 552 W, .568
National League East
  1. Dave K ----- 182 W, .562
  2. Jeff B ----- 632 W, .488
  3. Shotgun S -- 405 W, .500
  4. Brad P ---- 1185 W, .523
National League Central
  1. Justin B -- New
  2. Joe T ----- 519 W, .534
  3. TJ O ----- 1183 W, .487
  4. Sean S ---- 968 W, .544
 National League West
  1. Gary G -- 145 W, .448
  2. Lou P -- 1446 W, .596
  3. Mike S - 1400 W, .587 
  4. Greg M --- 63 W, .389

More Draft Resources Updated

  • Last Seasons Draft Log
  • Eligible Pitchers Spreadsheet
  • And the batting lines for those eligible pitchers

Sunday, January 5, 2014

23 Confirmed Owners for Next Season

Welcome back Jay H

Allen C
Brad P
Brian B
Dave K
Gary G
Greg M
Ivar A
Jay H
Jason B
Jeff B
Joe T
Joe V
Justin B
Justin P
Leanne S
Lou P
Matt B
Mike M
Mike S
Sean S
Shotgun S
Steve C

If your name isn't listed and you are interested please drop me a line or comment here.


Saturday, January 4, 2014

ATB Delay

For reasons beyond my control (paying job), ATB will be delayed a few weeks.  New target date is late January/Early February. 

Still need two owners - any leads?