Friday, October 26, 2012

Which Stats does DMB Use?

Brian B asked a great question earlier this week, "What categories does ATB actually use stats from? I seem to remember that RBI's and Runs aren't even input, I'm assuming wins and losses are not input for pitchers."

I thought I posted these answers in this blog previously but couldn't find it.  Forgive the re-post if  this is old news! 

At Bats
Home Runs
Hit By Pitch
Intentional Walks
Sac Flies
Ground into Double Play

- Games, Runs, RBI, and Sac Bunts are not required
- Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing are technically not required, but they are used to determine stolen base ratings

Batters Faced
Innings Pitched
Home Runs
Hit By Pitch
Intentional Walks

- Games, Shutouts, Games Finished, Wins, Losses, Saves, Runs, Earned Runs, Wild Pitches, and Balks are not required
- Starts and Complete Games are technically not required, but they are used to determine durability.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Comish's Challenge Results

Eight owners participated in the first ever Commissioner's Challenge, a tournament of sorts were the league was asked to create the best team possible using any combination of players.  I asked for 16 names per team - 9 person lineup with a DH, 4 starting pitchers, and 3 relievers.

To fill out the roster I gave every team the same back-ups:
  • Switch Hitting Jorge Posada at catcher (.262 / .333 / .364)
  • Justin Verlander as a 5th starter (set to skip) and long reliever (3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
  • Porter Charleston as a long reliever (3.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
  • Steve Howe as a back-up lefty specialist (2.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
  • And Jeff Gray as a back-up righty specialist (2.74 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)
  • (All stats above from the 500 resims)
Incredibly, no two owners featured the same exact lineup.  Some notes:
  • Only Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth were unanimous choices; and only Bonds was a unanimous choice to play the field as Ruth was both a DH and Right Fielder
  • 6 of 8 owners chose: George Brett over 2nd choice John McGraw, Oscar Charleston over Mickey Mantle, and Willie Wells over Honus Wagner
  • Three different Catchers, First Basemen, and Second Basemen were selected:  Mickey Cochrane, King Kelly, and Bill Dickey; Buck Leonard, Jimmie Foxx, and Lou Gehrig; and Eddie Collins, Ross Barnes, and Fred Dunlap
  • Right Field was the most difficult choice with four different possibilities:  Ruth, Larry Walker, Stan Musial, and Joe Jackson.
To crown a champion a ran 30 sims and compiled the results:

Congrats Mike S who narrowly bested Justin P for the best team.  Mike went with a lineup of:

Ted Williams (DH)
Babe Ruth (RF)
Oscar Charleston (CF)
Barry Bonds (LF)
Lou Gehrig (1B)
Fred Dunlap (2B)
George Brett (3B)
Willie Wells (SS)
Bill Dickey ('C)

His rotation was Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Nip Winters, and Randy Johnson.  The relievers were Dennis Eckersley, Mariano Rivera, and Gabe White

Justin had a similalr roster, countering with Ross Barnes at second and King Kelly at catcher.  Dunlap had 20 points of OPS on Barnes while Dickey had 30 points on Kelly.  That appeared to be the difference.

Some other interesting debates:
  • Randy Johnson bested Walter Johnson (5.76 ERA vs 6.57)
  • Red Ryan bested Mariano Rivera (4.47 vs. 4.72)
  • Nip Winters bested Addie Joss and Christy Mathewson (5.67 vs. 6.30 and 8.16)
  • George Brett bested John McGraw (.795 OPS vs .685)
  • Oscar Charleston over Mickey Mantle (.964 vs .884)
  • Willie Wells over Honus Wagner (.819 vs. 774)
Here's a file with all the team by team details.

Thanks for participating.  Congrats Mike! 

I'll do this again in a few weeks with some alternate ideas (No 30+ HR guys on a roster or something similar in nature).

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Commissioner's Challenge Update

OK, we have a total of 4 submissions so far, with at least two more on the way.

For those who haven't submitted - scratch the 25 man roster idea.  Give me 9 batters, 4 starters, and 3 relievers.  For the sim, I will give everyone the same backups.

Great Defenders Who Can Rake

(My definition for "Great Defender" is an Ex range with under an 80 error rate).

Mickey Cochrane - Ex/47 with an Ex Arm.  .368 OBP with 31 2B

First Base
Buck Leonard - Ex/67.  .310 / .360 / .443 with 30 2B and 17 HR

Second Base
Eddie Collins - Ex/61.  .295 / .360 / .378 with 25 2B

Third Base

Willie Wells - Ex/79.  .351 OBP, .490 SLG, 36 HR and 31 2B
Honus Wagner - Ex/74.  .302 / .345 / .464 with 43 2B, 13 3B, and 11 HR

Left Field
Fred Clarke - Ex/70.  .297 AVG, .353 OBP, 25 2B (admittedly a stretch)

Center Field
Oscar Charleston - Ex/55.  .338 / .442 / .625 with 49 2B and 39 HR
Joe DiMaggio - Ex/71.  .838 OPS with 34 2B and 28 HR
Pete Hill - Ex/76.  .376 OBP, .426 SLG
Tris Speaker - Ex/74  .385 OBP, 42 2B
Hugh Duffy - Ex/73. .309 AVG, .809 OPS, 46 2B, 14 3B

Right Field
Larry Walker - Ex/33.  .834 OPS, 35 2B and 35 HR

  • There really aren't many great defender/hitter combinations.  For the most part, you are lucky if you draft one of these guys.
  • Center Field has always been underrated.  The position is stacked even more with the negro league entrants.
  • Which led me to wonder what the average OPS is for the Top 10 and Top 20 batters at each position:

Well, there you go... sort of.  The elite center fielders hit every bit as well as right fielders and first basemen, but there is are stark drop off in talent the deeper you get.

Also interesting is second base, where the Top 5 are incredible.  Once you move into the top 10 however, they gain parity with third base, and moving down to the Top 20 they are among the weakest in the game.

Note:  I have a few entrants for the Commissioner's challenge.  Thanks!  Keep em coming.

Monday, October 15, 2012

500 Resims Data and a Commissioner's Challenge

The 500 Resim Data  has been fully compiled and can be downloaded here.

For kicks, here is my All Time great ATB team.  In other words, this is the ultimate team, the one that I would draft if enjoying free reign to chose at will.

#1 - John McGraw, 3B
#2 - Ross Barnes, 2B
#3 - Babe Ruth, DH
#4 - Mickey Mantle, CF
#5 - Barry Bonds, LF
#6 - Lou Gehrig, 1B
#7 - Willie Wells, SS
#8 - Larry Walker, RF
#9 - King Kelly C

SP 1 - Pedro Martinez
SP 2 - Greg Maddux
SP 3 - Nip Winters
SP 4 - Walter Johnson

CL - Dennis Eckersley
SE - Red Ryan
SE - Gabe White

This was more difficult to compile than I expected.  It is fairly simple to figure out who the best hitters are at each position, but constructing a balanced lineup that won't be eaten alive by a lefty pitcher (and one that my pitchers won't resent due to poor defense) is another story.

There are of course a few must haves.  Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Babe Ruth are clearly better than everyone else at their respective positions and I couldn't justify even considering the likes of Ted Williams, Turkey Stearns, Norm Cash, and others.  These bashers present two issues that impacted the rest of my draft strategy.  First, they are all average or below average defenders which means I have to cover this flaw up elsewhere   Second, my best three hitters are all lefties, limiting my tolerance for other plodding lefties up and down the lineup.

Their are only a handful fo .400+ on-base guys in the infield and I grabbed as many as I could.  Batting first and stealing 65+ bases will be John McGraw.  This is a bit controversial, as George Brett is frankly a better all around player.  But his OBP of .355 pales in comparison to McGraw's .434 and for this squad, the ability to get on base is more important than the 40 point loss in overall OPS.

At second I had to make an excruciating decision.  Fred Dunlap and Ross Barnes are virtually identical and any team would be lucky to have them.  Dunlap hits for more power (50 doubles and 19 home runs!) but gives away a nominal 10 points in OBP.  More importantly, I am taking Barnes' Ex range over Dunlap's Vg. (Secondarily, we have seen over the past seasons that Barnes is the better hitter, and part of me wants to believe that regardless of what the 500 resims show).

With Ruth batting third, few opportunities will come to my clean-up hitter,  Mickey Mantle.  Let me be blunt - Oscar Charleston is a better player. He hits for a higher average, gets on base more, has more power, and is better on the bases.  But he's also a lefty while Mantle is the only elite right handed outfielder in all of ATB (well, he is switch hitter but you get the point).  While not the traditional cleanup hitter he does bat 4th to break up a string of lefties, pushing Bonds and Gehrig back a spot to 5th and 6th.

Batting 7th is shortstop Willie Wells who had a  phenomenal 500 resims, batting .277 / .351 / .490 with superb defense.  The previous de facto #1 shortstop, Honus Wagner, was almost as good but falls short of Wells in all meaningful categories except batting average.

Incredibly, Larry Walker is my starting right fielder.  Ruth is too poor in the field to hide, especially with generally lackluster fielding all around, so Walker with Ex/33 skills gets my stamp of approval.  Another option was Orator Shaffer who has a 30 point edge in on base but features only and average error rate on defense.

Finally, batting 9th and catching is good ol' King Kelly.  At this point after the 1800s reset of last season Bill Dickey may be better as thanks to a 100 points edge in slugging, but again this team has plenty of power so I'll take the 35 points in on-base instead.  It also gives a potent 9-1-2 on-base machine as the lineup turns over.

Pitching wise, the choices are a lot simpler.  Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux have always and will always be the best two starters.  Newcomer Nip Winters is a lefty, and a cut-above Randy Johnson thanks to a 1.07 WHIP and garners the #3 starter role.

4th starter is problematic as there are plenty of options.  Another lefty in Randy Johnson or Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Bill Bernhard, Al Orth, Babe Adams or Walter Johnson?  With the lowest WHIP of the bunch, I chose Walter.

My relief corps is led by Dennis Eckersley, Red Ryan, and lefty Gabe White.  I initially slated Mariano Rivera for setup, but Ryan had a slightly worse defense behind him which ultimately swayed my decision.  His 0.84 WHIP made it a bit easier to overlook Rivera's aura.

Now the challenge.  For the handful of off-season blog readers, feel free to send me your best 25 man rosters and I'll pit them against each other an a 162 game season.  This is purely for fun of course, only the basic stats will be maintained and distributed.

If interested drop me a email or post in the comments.  I am particularly interested if a more defensive minded team could beat this squad.  I rather think they couldn't, as any edge in defense must be offset by several hundred points in OPS, right?