Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Selecting Your Ballpark

A few misunderstandings came up last season with regard to reading the park factors.  Linked via the draft day page is a file labled "Basic Ballpark Resource".  In this file are the available parks to chose from.  Basically, any park DMB has published information on, which equates to all parks from 1901-2014.

The file contains:

  • Factors
  • Distance to Fence
  • Height of Wall
  • Surface Type, Temperature, Wind Speed, Foul Ground, and Rain Frequency
Only the park factors truly matter.  The other categories are only used for a more colorful play by play.  For instance, 1953 Fenway Park has Strong winds and a home run factors of 142 and 150.  The wind has already been taken into account in the 142 and 150.

Similarly, and this is the tricky part, fence distance is irrelevant as well. 1904 South End Grounds had very small fences (6ft) and extremly short distances:  250ft down the left field line and 258 ft down the right field line.  Yet, the park factor for home runs were 86 and 86.  Four our purposes, only look at the 86.

Finally, you'll see me refer to factors from time to time in the following format:

100/102, 107/115, 105/105, 105/86. 

This happens to be the park factor line for 1957 Busch Stadium.  The first set of numbers (100/102) are the factors for singles, the second set (107/115) is for doubles, followed by triples (105/105), and home runs (105/86).  

The first number before a slash is the factor for lefties, and the second for righties.  Looking at home runs only - 105/86 - this means lefties hit 5% more home runs than average, and righties hit 14% less home runs than average.  The average corresponds to the real life stats from 1957 Busch Stadium vs the rest of the National League.

In terms of ATB, Busch Stadium is 'ported' to our universe, and ATB lefty batters will hit 5% more home runs than average and lefty batters 14% fewer than average.  The average in this case is not the NL in 1957, but rather the average 'era' we play ATB in.

It's the same 'era' as ATB 16 where on average batters hit .253 / .315 / .378 and pitchers recorded a 3.65 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  Last year ATB did not have a DH so expect those lines in the NL only.

Hope this helps!


Downsouth Gets a New Logo

Allen C decided to change things up.  Here is the new logo for his Downsouth Brews.


Monday, December 29, 2014

Introducing the Seattle Pilots

Tony P will navigate the franchise.  Here is their logo.

Sorry Tony, you sent this in a while ago and I missed it.

Website Fully Updated with 2014 Stats

We should be all set for the draft.  The Draft Day page is fully updated:

  • Batter and Pitcher eligibility files
  • Ballparks
  • Player Ratings
  • Era's
  • And a bit more
Please let me know if you see any inconsistencies or missing data.

Reminder of the schedule
  • Week of January 5th - Stadium Draft.  Very slow, 4 total picks per day.  Everyone has a pre-assigned time.  TJ - you are up first and feel free to post whenever you want.
  • Week of January 12th - Player Draft rounds 1-5.  This is our slow draft, with everyone making 1 pick per day.
  • January 19th - We pick up the pace, making 65 or so picks per day until the draft is complete
Remember:
  • If you miss your timeslot you simply get skipped.  Feel free to make your skipped selection at your earliest convenience.
  • Timeslots are there as a worst case.  If the person before you has made a selection, you can you make your own selection before your scheduled time.  This is true even if there are open skips.
  • However, at the end of a day you cannot start the next mornings draft until 1) all skips are caught up, or 2) the timed draft begins again the next day.
  • Feel free to email me your pick if you are not around.  I will do my best to post for you or at least put you in touch with another owner if I am not available.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Introducing the Guardians of the Galaxay

Owned and Operated by Joe V.  Here's  his logo.



Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Introducing the Lakeview Zeros

Brian B is at the helm.  Here is their logo.


Introducing the Brooklyn Cyclones

John J will pilot.  Here is their logo.


Saturday, December 20, 2014

Draft Board is Up

The draft board is up and operational, linked in the menu above.  Please make sure you have access before the draft.  Let me know if any problems.

Feel free to start populating team names and managers.

Introducing the Hoboken Zephyr's

Stephen L's first franchise logo contains a great rendering of Elysian Fields


Bonus points for anyone who can recall the 1st Hoboken Zephyrs

Introducing the Albuquerque Heisenbergs

Greg M explains, "We've had an influx of money from a fried-chicken franchise, so we're switching names for ATB 17.  We'll be called the Albuquerque Heisenbergs."


Friday, December 19, 2014

Draft Order - Final Results!

Going to post two a day.  I forgot we draft parks now, so people need to know there pick slots sooner, rather than later.

I'll be posting the draft order, one at a time each day, over the next few weeks.  What else are we going to do in December, right?

Pick / Owner / Player Taken Last Year in the Slot/ 355 Resim
24. TJ 0 ----- 1997 Larry Walker --- (.269 / .338 / .494, .832)
23. Mike S --- 1913 Walter Johnson - (3.00, 1.00, 3.40 Adj ERA)
22. Joe T ---- 1926 Turkey Stearnes- (.291 / .330 / .579, .909)
21. Greg M --- 1887 Tip O'Neil ----- (.322 / .368 / .511, .879)
20. Tony P --- 1939 Joe DiMaggio --- (.293 / .350 / .490, .840)
19. Matt B --- 1901 Nap Lajoie ----- (.316 / .359 / .473, .832)
18. Ivar A --- 1922 Nip Winters -----(2.87, 1.02, 2.92 Adj ERA)
17. Justin B - 1917 Ty Cobb -------- (.322 / .370 / .491, .861)
16. David K -- 1980 George Brett --- (.312 / .361 / .506, .867)
15. Allen C -- 1922 Heavy Johnson -- (.322 / .397 / .592, .989)
14. Thomas R - 1929 Willie Wells --- (.273 / .350 / .485, .835)
13. Gary G --- 1935 Akry Vaughan --- (.275 / .369 / .416, .785)
12. Lou P ---- 1941 Ted Williams --- (.321 / .451 / .560, 1.011)
11. Al H ----- 1924 Rogers Hornsby - (.301 / .373 / .490, .863)
10. John J --- 1995 Greg Maddux ---- (2.18, 0.95, 2.33 Adj ERA)
 9. Brian B -- 1876 Ross Barnes ---- (.335 / .415 / .493, .908)
 8. Justin P - 1927 Lou Gehrig ----- (.299 / .407 / .622, 1.209)
 7. Leanne S - 1884 Fred Dunlap ---- (.342 / .409 / .523, .932)
 6. Brad P --- 1957 Mickey Mantle -- (.313 / .460 / .526, .985)
 5. Sean S --- 2000 Pedro Martinez - (2.34, 0.87, 2.39 Adj ERA)
 4. Joe V ---- 1908 Honus Wagner --- (.296 / .346 / .455, .801)
 3. Jason B -- 1920 Babe Ruth ------ (.278 / .450 / .670, 1.120)
 2. Stephen L- 2004 Barry Bonds ---- (.289 / .460 / .605, 1.065)
 1. Mike M --- 1924 Oscar Charelston (.324 / .407 / .604, 1.011)

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Welcome Tony P!

We're back at 24. 

Tony comes to us via Thomas R who came to us via Justin P. 


Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Looking for One More Owner

Will G unfortunately had to leave the league for some very valid reasons.  We wish him the best of luck and the door is always open for a future franchise in ATB 18 and beyond.

It does leave us 1 owner short.  If you know of anyone who might be interested, please drop me a note.

Hudson MadBum Franchise Announced

Brad P will be piloting Hudson MadBum this year.  Here's the logo.  It should not need to be stated, but Brad is a SF Giant fan.






Monday, December 15, 2014

Welcome Thomas R!

We've filled the last opening.  Please welcome Thomas R who comes to us by way of the #1 owner of all time, Justin P.  No pressure Thomas

Friday, December 12, 2014

#1 Picks by Owner

Thought it would be interesting to see the #1 pick history for active owners.  It wasn't, but figured I would share anyway.

Al H: ATB 16 - (B) - # 8 - 1927 Lou Gehrig

Allen C: ATB 11 - (B) - # 6 - 1894 Hugh Duffy
Allen C: ATB 12 - (B) - # 9 - 1932 Jimmie Foxx
Allen C: ATB 13 - (B) - #11 - 1908 Honus Wagner
Allen C: ATB 14 - (B) - # 7 - 1932 Jimmie Foxx
Allen C: ATB 15 - (P) - #21 - 2000 Randy Johnson
Allen C: ATB 16 - (P) - # 5 - 2000 Pedro Martinez

Brad P: ATB 7 -- (P) - # 6 - 1913 Walter Johnson
Brad P: ATB 9 -- (B) - #13 - 1908 Honus Wagner
Brad P: ATB 10 - (B) - # 1 - 1920 Babe Ruth
Brad P: ATB 11 - (B) - #16 - 1901 Nap Lajoie
Brad P: ATB 12 - (B) - #19 - 1910 Ty Cobb
Brad P: ATB 13 - (B) - #17 - 1876 Ross Barnes
Brad P: ATB 14 - (B) - # 8 - 1876 Ross Barnes
Brad P: ATB 15 - (B) - #19 - 1980 George Brett
Brad P: ATB 16 - (B) - # 4 - 2004 Barry Bonds (TRADE)

Brian B: ATB 10 - (B) - # 7 - 1924 Rogers Hornsby
Brian B: ATB 11 - (P) - # 9 - 1999 Randy Johnson
Brian B: ATB 12 - (B) - # 7 - 1908 Honus Wagner
Brian B: ATB 13 - (B) - # 1 - 1920 Babe Ruth
Brian B: ATB 14 - (B) - #12 - 1908 Honus Wagner
Brian B: ATB 15 - (P) - # 3 - 2000 Pedro Martinez
Brian B: ATB 16 - (B) - # 12 - 1941 Ted Williams

Dave K: ATB 14 - (B) - # 3 - 2002 Barry Bonds
Dave K: ATB 15 - (B) - #10 - 1927 Lou Gehrig
Dave K: ATB 16 - (B) - #20 - 1939 Joe DiMaggio

Gary G: ATB 14 - (P) - #17 - 1913 Walter Johnson
Gary G: ATB 15 - (B) - # 2 - 1920 Babe Ruth
Gary G: ATB 16 - (P) - #23 - 1913 Walter Johnson

Greg M: ATB 15 - (B) - #22 - 1901 Nap Lajoie
Greg M: ATB 16 - (B) - # 6 - 1957 Mickey Mantle

Ivar A: ATB 9 -- (B) - # 3 - 2002 Barry Bonds
Ivar A: ATB 10 - (B) - #11 - 1932 Jimmie Foxx
Ivar A: ATB 11 - (P) - # 5 - 1995 Greg Maddux
Ivar A: ATB 12 - (B) - # 8 - 1997 Larry Walker
Ivar A: ATB 13 - (B) - #18 - 1997 Larry Walker
Ivar A: ATB 14 - (B) - #15 - 1939 Joe DiMaggio
Ivar A: ATB 15 - (B) - #15 - 1917 Ty Cobb
Ivar A: ATB 16 - (B) - #24 - 1997 Larry Walker

Jason B: ATB 10 - (B) - #10 - 1908 Honus Wagner
Jason B: ATB 11 - (B) - #12 - 1908 Honus Wagner
Jason B: ATB 12 - (P) - # 4 - 2000 Pedro Martinez
Jason B: ATB 13 - (B) - #15 - 1925 Oscar Charleston
Jason B: ATB 14 - (B) - # 4 - 1957 Mickey Mantle
Jason B: ATB 15 - (B) - # 4 - 2004 Barry Bonds
Jason B: ATB 16 - (B) - #22 - 1926 Turkey Stearnes

Joe T: ATB 10 - (B) - #12 - 1969 Willie McCovey
Joe T: ATB 11 - (B) - #17 - 2008 Albert Pujols
Joe T: ATB 12 - (B) - # 3 - 1956 Mickey Mantle
Joe T: ATB 13 - (P) - #14 - 1995 Greg Maddux
Joe T: ATB 14 - (B) - #14 - 1948 Stan Musial
Joe T: ATB 15 - (B) - # 5 - 1957 Mickey Mantle
Joe T: ATB 16 - (B) - # 2 - 1908 Honus Wagner (TRADE)

Joe V: ATB 14 - (B) - #19 - 1961 Norm Cash
Joe V: ATB 15 - (B) - #13 - 1941 Ted Williams
Joe V: ATB 16 - (B) - # 1 - 1924 Oscar Charleston

Justin Bo: ATB 16 - (P) - #10 - 1995 Greg Maddux

Justin P: ATB 7 -- (B) - # 4 - 1941 Ted Williams
Justin P: ATB 9 -- (B) - #16 - 1935 Arky Vaughan
Justin P: ATB 10 - (P) - # 8 - 1995 Greg Maddux
Justin P: ATB 11 - (B) - #14 - 1941 Ted Williams
Justin P: ATB 12 - (B) - # 1 - 2001 Barry Bonds
Justin P: ATB 13 - (B) - #12 - 1932 Jimmie Foxx
Justin P: ATB 14 - (B) - #11 - 1884 Fred Dunlap
Justin P: ATB 15 - (B) - # 1 - 1924 Oscar Charleston
Justin P: ATB 16 - (B) - # 3 - 1920 Babe Ruth

Lou P: ATB 7 - (B) -- #12 - 1927 Lou Gehrig
Lou P: ATB 9 - (B) -- # 8 - 1941 Ted Williams
Lou P: ATB 10 - (B) - #17 - 1887 Tip O'Neill
Lou P: ATB 11 - (B) - #20 - 1917 Ty Cobb
Lou P: ATB 12 - (B) - #20 - 1948 Stan Musial
Lou P: ATB 13 - (B) - # 5 - 1957 Mickey Mantle
Lou P: ATB 14 - (B) - #13 - 1917 Ty Cobb
Lou P: ATB 15 - (B) - #17 - 1926 Turkey Stearnes
Lou P: ATB 16 - (P) - #18 - 1922 Nip Winters

Matt B: ATB 10 - (P) - #18 - 1908 Christy Mathewson
Matt B: ATB 11 - (B) - #19 - 1935 Arky Vaughan
Matt B: ATB 12 - (P) - #10 - 1995 Greg Maddux
Matt B: ATB 13 - (B) - #13 - 1887 Tip O'Neill
Matt B: ATB 14 - (B) - #20 - 1887 Tip O'Neill
Matt B: ATB 15 - (B) - #20 - 1933 Jimmie Foxx
Matt B: ATB 16 - (B) - #21 - 1935 Arky Vaughan (TRADE)

Mike M: ATB 15 - (B) - #12 - 1935 Arky Vaughan
Mike M: ATB 16 - (B) - #16 - 1980 George Brett

Mike S: ATB 7 -- (P) - # 7 - 1908 Addie Joss
Mike S: ATB 9 -- (P) - # 4 - 2000 Pedro Martinez
Mike S: ATB 10 - (P) - # 4 - 2000 Pedro Martinez
Mike S: ATB 11 - (B) - #13 - 1884 Fred Dunlap
Mike S: ATB 12 - (B) - # 5 - 1941 Ted Williams
Mike S: ATB 13 - (B) - # 8 - 1894 Hugh Duffy
Mike S: ATB 14 - (P) - # 2 - 2000 Pedro Martinez
Mike S: ATB 15 - (B) - #16 - 1922 Heavy Johnson
Mike S: ATB 16 - (B) - #19 - 1901 Nap Lajoie

Sean S: ATB 7 -- (B) - # 8 - 1924 Rogers Hornsby
Sean S: ATB 9 -- (P) - #15 - 1915 Pete Alexander
Sean S: ATB 10 - (B) - # 5 - 1941 Ted Williams
Sean S: ATB 13 - (B) - #16 - 1917 Ty Cobb
Sean S: ATB 14 - (B) - #18 - 1935 Arky Vaughan
Sean S: ATB 15 - (P) - # 7 - 1995 Greg Maddux
Sean S: ATB 16 - (B) - #13 - 1887 Tip O'Neill (TRADE)

Shotgun S: ATB 11 - (B) - # 3 - 2002 Barry Bonds
Shotgun S: ATB 12 - (B) - # 2 - 1921 Babe Ruth
Shotgun S: ATB 13 - (B) - #10 - 1924 Rogers Hornsby
Shotgun S: ATB 14 - (B) - # 9 - 1941 Ted Williams
Shotgun S: ATB 15 - (B) - #23 - 1939 Joe DiMaggio
Shotgun S: ATB 16 - (B) - # 9 - 1876 Ross Barnes

TJ O: ATB 7 -- (P) - #15 - 1909 Mordecai Brown
TJ O: ATB 9 -- (P) - #10 - 1995 Greg Maddux
TJ O: ATB 10 - (P) - # 6 - 1999 Randy Johnson
TJ O: ATB 11 - (B) - #15 - 1887 Tip O'Neill
TJ O: ATB 12 - (B) - #18 - 1901 Nap Lajoie
TJ O: ATB 13 - (B) - # 6 - 1941 Ted Williams
TJ O: ATB 14 - (B) - # 5 - 1927 Lou Gehrig
TJ O: ATB 15 - (B) - # 6 - 1929 Willie Wells
TJ O: ATB 16 - (B) - #15 - 1922 Heavy Johnson

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Richie Ashburn is the All Time MVP

Check this out.  In the 10 years I have records on him, Richie Ashburn, the defensive wizard with a high on base, has never been on a losing team.  Not once!  Seven times he helped guide a franchise to 90 or more wins, including 108 win  Franklin Lakes Pillpoppers in ATB 7.

To find this stat, I created a baseball +/- score.  It is truly meaningless, or at least mostly meaningless, but a fun little stat nonetheless.  I looked at each player and simply gave them positive credit for being on a winning team, and negative credit for being on a losing one.  The more wins above .500 in a given year, the more credit.

Here is the top 15 of All Time:
129 Wins: Richie Ashburn (10 Seasons)
125 Wins: Al Grabowski (11 Seasons)
120 Wins: Ted Williams (11 Seasons)
119 Wins: Jeff Gray (10 Seasons)
116 Wins: Reggie Smith (10 Seasons)
103 Wins: Oscar Charleston (9 Seasons)
99 Wins: Johnny Podres (7 Seasons)
98 Wins: Rob Murphy (11 Seasons)
97 Wins: Teddy Higuera (10 Seasons)
95 Wins: Bill Bernhard (10 Seasons)
94 Wins: Dave Bancroft (7 Seasons)
93 Wins: Gabe White (11 Seasons)
91 Wins: Orator Shaffer (6 Seasons)
90 Wins: Harry Brecheen (11 Seasons)
90 Wins: Buck Leonard (9 Seasons)

Most of those are very good players, but only Ted Williams would be considered an ATB elite.

Let's look at the data slightly differently.  Here are the top 15 in terms of average +/- per season:

15.2 Wins: Orator Shaffer (6 Seasons)
14.1 Wins: Johnny Podres (7 Seasons)
13.4 Wins: Dave Bancroft (7 Seasons)
13.2 Wins: Ross Youngs (6 Seasons)
12.9 Wins: Richie Ashburn (10 Seasons)
11.9 Wins: Jeff Gray (10 Seasons)
11.8 Wins: Pud Galvin (6 Seasons)
11.6 Wins: Reggie Smith (10 Seasons)
11.6 Wins: Bob O'Farrell (7 Seasons)
11.4 Wins: Oscar Charleston (9 Seasons)
11.4 Wins: Al Grabowski (11 Seasons)
11.2 Wins: Lenny Dykstra (6 Seasons)
11.0 Wins: Pat Jarvis (8 Seasons)
10.9 Wins: Ted Williams (11 Seasons)
10.7 Wins: Rusty Staub (6 Seasons)

By this measure, Ashburn drops a few spots and Orator Shaffer takes the lead.  Oscar Charleston also makes an appearance.

Shaffer is an interesting case.  In 6 seasons, his teams have exceeded 97 wins 5 times, including a wonderful 111 win campaign last year from his Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters.

Again however, the elite players of ATB are largely absent.  Here is a view for those players most commonly referred to as the best of the bes, the top 11 draft picks from last season:

1) 103 Wins: Oscar Charleston (9 Seasons)
2)  61 Wins: Barry Bonds (11 Seasons)
3)   6 Wins: Babe Ruth (11 Seasons)
4)  28 Wins: Honus Wagner (11 Seasons)
5)  42 Wins: Pedro Martinez (11 Seasons)
6)  13 Wins: Mickey Mantle (11 Seasons)
7)  28 Wins: Fred Dunlap (6 Seasons)
8) -26 Wins: Lou Gehrig (11 Seasons)
9)   3 Wins: Ross Barnes (4 Seasons)
10) 41 Wins: Greg Maddux (11 Seasons)
11)-95 Wins: Rogers Hornsby (11 Seasons)

Ugly isn't it?  Only Charleston is remotely close to the top 10 overall.

Finally, here are the worst career +/- scores:
-122 Wins: Bob Feller (8 Seasons)
-107 Wins: Don Mattingly (10 Seasons)
-107 Wins: Jimmie Foxx (11 Seasons)
-105 Wins: Steve Carlton (9 Seasons)
-104 Wins: Ichiro Suzuki (9 Seasons)
-97 Wins: Bob Gibson (11 Seasons)
-96 Wins: Tom Seaver (10 Seasons)
-95 Wins: Eddie Guardado (7 Seasons)
-95 Wins: Rogers Hornsby (11 Seasons)
-91 Wins: Ryne Sandberg (10 Seasons)
-90 Wins: Whitey Ford (7 Seasons)

There are some famous, but also bad, players on this list.  Feller, Mattingly, Carlton, Ichrio, Gibson, Seaver, Sandberg and Ford are all MLB greats.  They also happen to be drafted every year despite some serious ATB shortcomings.

Don't make too much of these lists however.  It's only for our enjoyment - I am still happy to have Babe Ruth, even if he's only been on a winning team in 4 of 11 seasons.  Said another way, only Brad P and Justin P have been able to go to the playoffs with Ruth as their franchise player.  Incredible.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Welcome JJ!

John J (JJ) will pilot the American League opening we had.  JJ comes to us via the Yuku Diamond Mind Baseball forum.

Welcome JJ!

Stock Up, Stock Down

Just as in fantasy baseball, year over year trends develop in where players are drafted.  In fantasy, this is mostly due to the success or failure due to the players aging curve, here in ATB, it is due rule changes, the introduction of new talent to the player pool, and smarter owners.  The reasons do not matter so much, but recognizing the trends can make a difference.

Here are a few players that have seen the stock rise and fall over the past few years.  The Round each player was selected is referenced in the stats.

Stock Up

Roy Halladay
Owners apparantly thought it best to take little sips of Roy Halladay before settling on the fact he is a pretty darn good pitcher. Four different years have been drafted in the past five seasons.  In ATB 12 he had a cup of coffee and a ERA over 6.  A year later he made 19 starts, but was below league average and last only 10 innings in ATB 14.  Finally, after the 500 resims Jeff B tried the 2002 version in ATB 15 (6th round) and in 255 innings Halladay compiled a 3.46 ERA.

Scott Rolen
This is a true head scratcher and I hope this post sets the world right again.  In ATB 12, the backup third basemen came to the plate just 59 times, justifiable for an 18th rounder.  A year later, Ivar caught some lightning in a bottle, getting a .774 OPS out of him in 34 games.

Along with the new found league wide love of defense, this brief success caused temporarity insanity in Sean, who jumped 10 rounds and drafted him in the 8th.  Rolen was awful with a .455 OPS in 223 at bats.  This must have looked good to Steve C, who took Rolen a round even earlier the following year.

He was awful yet again, so of course TJ took him another round earlier last season.  He was somewhat rewarded with a .306 OBP and .421 SLG.  Hopefully this doesn't make him a 1st rounder in January.


Bobby Murcer
Murcer is one of those players who are simultaneously over- and underratted at the same time.  Murcer can hit, but can't field.  He has some memorable seasons for some great teams as well.  In ATB 12 and 13, the centerfielder was drafted in the 11th and put up wonderful numbers (.327 / .392 / .479 in over 1,100 at bats) only to fall 4 slots to the 15th round in ATB 14.  He proceeded to have his worst season since ATB 7, and sure enough, owners finally caught on to his prowess (again helped by the 500 resims), and jumped on him in the 8th two years ago.  Last year, he went in the 6th.

Brett Saberhagen
We may have to rename this article, "the players who owe their careers to the 500 resims."  Sabes is another example of the 500 resims identifying talent.  Stuck in the early to mid teen rounds, the resims showed his talent and he is currently considered a viable 5th round pick.


Stock Down
Brooks Robinson

The defensive specialist (in ATB terms anwyay) has never been a particularly good player.  However, he was a decidely great MLB player which has caused him to be taken too early in years past.  Owners are now realizing he can be had in the later rounds and have appropriately adjusted.


David Cone
Cone has always been a pretty good pitcher and definitely worthy of a pick somewhere in the 12-15 range.  However, the 5th round is more than a stretch.

Overall in his entire history, not just the past 5 years, he's had incredible variation in draft slots:

ATB 7 - Undrafted (Brad P)
ATB 8 - Unknown
ATB 9 - 11th Round (Mike W)
ATB 10 - 4th Round (Mike T)
ATB 11 - 24th Round (Allen C)
ATB 12 - 5th Round (Allen C) 
ATB 13 - 8th ROund (Jeff B
ATB 14 - 12th Round (Mike S)
ATB 15 - 15th Round (Lou P)
ATB 16 - 15th Round (Mike S)

Interestingly, Cone did very well in the 355 resims (3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and may be headed for another earl selection within the 1st 10 rounds.

Dazzy Vance
I admit1924 Dazzy Vance should be a lot better than he is, but his real life 1.02 WHIP and 2.08 ERA is quite good but it has never translated to ATB.  The righty has performed about league average between ATB 13 and 15, and eventually dropped to the 27th round last year, only making into 1 game.  He had a decent enough resim to be useful as 5th starter or long man, but his days of 5th rounds picks should be done.

Ernie Banks
In a similar story to that of Robinson, Banks is a real life star ported to software hat doesn't appreciate his type of skillset.  Banks' real life numbers translate to a sub-.300 on base percentage and despite decent power, just doesn't warrent consideration in any regular role.

He did smack 27 HR in 613 plate appearances during the resims, so his power is legitimate.  Perhaps with a hands on manager one can find use?

Hal Newhouser
In ATB 10, Newhouse was drafted in the 3rd and sporeted a 5.85 ERA and 1.71 WHIP for Steve G.  Shotgun tried a different year in ATB 11, it didn't work, and Mike W was impressed enough with this failure to take him in the 2nd (!) in ATB 12.

TJ O caught on to the trend and waited 6 rounds before grabbing him in the next season, but while Newhouser's ERA was respectable (3.61) his WHIP of 1.59 showed not much had changed.  A year later he went in the 7th and made 38 starts despite a 4.93 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.

Finally, in ATB 15, owners had had enough, and waited until the 15th to give him another shot.  Leanne S enjoyed an above average starter in 29 games.  In ATB 16, Newhouser went nuts for Joe V, to the tune of a 2.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 40 games (26 starts).


Monday, December 8, 2014

Still Need 2 Owners, Computer Run Team(s) Option

We are still short two owners.  I have one "maybe", but he cannot commit until closer to the new year.

If anyone knows someone who might be interested, please let me know.

In the event we do not find owners 23 and 24 we'll switch to computer led teams.  We've done this in past seasons and it works, but obviously less than ideal.

I would draft these teams based upon my own personal ranking formula.  This is hit or miss, since players like Lefty Grove are rated highly and would be drafted too early.  However, generally, the formula works fairly well.  The PC teams cannot trade during the season and would only receive lineup changes to account for grievous injuries.

I am open to other ideas as long as they are practical and fair.  Comment in this thread if you have any thoughts.

Denver RoidBoyz Franchise Announced

Gary G will be piloting the Denver RoidBoyz this year.


Sunday, December 7, 2014

Team Schedules Announced

And has been posted in the league reports section (permanently linked to the right).  In summary:
  • 18 games against each intra-division team
  • 12 games against each inter-division team
  • 3 games against all teams in one interleague division. The Random Number generator came up with the following (AL East vs NL West; AL Central vs NL Central; AL West vs NL East)

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Ankhana Adventurers Franchise Announced

Lou P will pilot the Ankhana Adventurers in the upcoming ATB 17 season.


The owners page has been updated, feel free to start submitting team names and optioinal team logos.

Friday, December 5, 2014

The Luckiest and Unluckiest Owners

Here are the average draft positions per owner since ATB 6.  I don't have records for ATB 8 so they are not included.

Justin easily has the best luck, with two #1 picks and four picks in the top 5.  He has never drafted outside the top 16.

Poor Matt has the worst  luck, never drafting better than 10th and has 5 seasons selecting 18th or later.




Here is the full data for active owners

Al H - ATB 16: RD 8

Allen C - ATB 11: RD 6
Allen C - ATB 12: RD 9
Allen C - ATB 13: RD 11
Allen C - ATB 14: RD 7
Allen C - ATB 15: RD 21
Allen C - ATB 16: RD 5

Brad P - ATB 6: RD 3
Brad P - ATB 7: RD 6
Brad P - ATB 9: RD 13
Brad P - ATB 10: RD 1
Brad P - ATB 11: RD 16
Brad P - ATB 12: RD 19
Brad P - ATB 13: RD 17
Brad P - ATB 14: RD 8
Brad P - ATB 15: RD 19
Brad P - ATB 16: RD 4

Brian B - ATB 10: RD 7
Brian B - ATB 11: RD 9
Brian B - ATB 12: RD 7
Brian B - ATB 13: RD 1
Brian B - ATB 14: RD 12
Brian B - ATB 15: RD 3
Brian B - ATB 16: RD 12

Dave K - ATB 14: RD 3
Dave K - ATB 15: RD 10
Dave K - ATB 16: RD 20

Gary G - ATB 14: RD 17
Gary G - ATB 15: RD 2
Gary G - ATB 16: RD 23

Greg M - ATB 15: RD 22
Greg M - ATB 16: RD 6

Ivar A - ATB 9: RD 3
Ivar A - ATB 10: RD 11
Ivar A - ATB 11: RD 5
Ivar A - ATB 12: RD 8
Ivar A - ATB 13: RD 18
Ivar A - ATB 14: RD 15
Ivar A - ATB 15: RD 15
Ivar A - ATB 16: RD 24

Jason B - ATB 10: RD 10
Jason B - ATB 11: RD 12
Jason B - ATB 12: RD 4
Jason B - ATB 13: RD 15
Jason B - ATB 14: RD 4
Jason B - ATB 15: RD 4
Jason B - ATB 16: RD 22

Joe T - ATB 10: RD 12
Joe T - ATB 11: RD 17
Joe T - ATB 12: RD 3
Joe T - ATB 13: RD 14
Joe T - ATB 14: RD 14
Joe T - ATB 15: RD 5
Joe T - ATB 16: RD 2

Joe V - ATB 14: RD 19
Joe V - ATB 15: RD 13
Joe V - ATB 16: RD 1

Justin Bo - ATB 16: RD 10

Justin P - ATB 6: RD 6
Justin P - ATB 7: RD 4
Justin P - ATB 9: RD 16
Justin P - ATB 10: RD 8
Justin P - ATB 11: RD 14
Justin P - ATB 12: RD 1
Justin P - ATB 13: RD 12
Justin P - ATB 14: RD 11
Justin P - ATB 15: RD 1
Justin P - ATB 16: RD 3

Lou P - ATB 6: RD 5
Lou P - ATB 7: RD 12
Lou P - ATB 9: RD 8
Lou P - ATB 10: RD 17
Lou P - ATB 11: RD 20
Lou P - ATB 12: RD 20
Lou P - ATB 13: RD 5
Lou P - ATB 14: RD 13
Lou P - ATB 15: RD 17
Lou P - ATB 16: RD 18

Matt B - ATB 10: RD 18
Matt B - ATB 11: RD 19
Matt B - ATB 12: RD 10
Matt B - ATB 13: RD 13
Matt B - ATB 14: RD 20
Matt B - ATB 15: RD 20
Matt B - ATB 16: RD 21

Mike M - ATB 15: RD 12
Mike M - ATB 16: RD 16

Mike S - ATB 6: RD 11
Mike S - ATB 7: RD 7
Mike S - ATB 9: RD 4
Mike S - ATB 10: RD 4
Mike S - ATB 11: RD 13
Mike S - ATB 12: RD 5
Mike S - ATB 13: RD 8
Mike S - ATB 14: RD 2
Mike S - ATB 15: RD 16
Mike S - ATB 16: RD 19

Sean S - ATB 6: RD 4
Sean S - ATB 7: RD 8
Sean S - ATB 9: RD 15
Sean S - ATB 10: RD 5
Sean S - ATB 13: RD 16
Sean S - ATB 14: RD 18
Sean S - ATB 15: RD 7
Sean S - ATB 16: RD 13

Shotgun S - ATB 11: RD 3
Shotgun S - ATB 12: RD 2
Shotgun S - ATB 13: RD 10
Shotgun S - ATB 14: RD 9
Shotgun S - ATB 15: RD 23
Shotgun S - ATB 16: RD 9

TJ O - ATB 6: RD 1
TJ O - ATB 7: RD 15
TJ O - ATB 9: RD 10
TJ O - ATB 10: RD 6
TJ O - ATB 11: RD 15
TJ O - ATB 12: RD 18
TJ O - ATB 13: RD 6
TJ O - ATB 14: RD 5
TJ O - ATB 15: RD 6
TJ O - ATB 16: RD 15

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Draft Heat Map

I thought it would be interesting to know when we should draft a certain level of player.  For instance, if you want a shortstop in the top 15% of the league, when do you need to pull the trigger.  What about top 40%?

To do this I made one large assumption - owners draft better players first.  We know this isn't entirely true as we all have made mistakes on draft day, but in general, I am comfortable we can rely on our draft history for this study.

The following looks at latest the three year trend of where we draft each position.  An example - looking at first base, if an owner wants a Top "x" player, they would need to pull the trigger by "Y" Round:

Top 3 - Round 1
Top 10 - by Round 3
Top 15 - By Round 5
Top 24 - Round 9

This also implies that replacement level first basemen are all that is left by the end of round 9. 

Here is the full chart:



Center Field remains a key position in owners minds.  On average, 16 center fielders are drafted every year by the 4th round.  Compare that to only  8 second basemen.

Rounds 4 and 5 see the first relievers removed the board, and then things escalate quickly.  In only 5 rounds do we go from the 1st to the 24th reliever taken.

Obviously, one cannot draft players in the upper tier of every position.  Hopefully this chart can help focus your draft plan.  The most important to me is knowing how long we have to draft a pretty good player at a specific position.  We have 6 rounds to draft a good catcher and only 3 for a first basemen.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Divisional Alignment for ATB 17

Thanks everyone for sending in your preference.  We still need two additional owners but I want to get started with the preliminaries.  First up, our divisional alignment.

As always, these were done with random number generator.  I do find it interesting that most of the long time owners preferred a DH.

AMERICAN LEAGUE (DH)
East

  1. Justin P (.593 Wpct - 1534 Wins)
  2. Mike S --(.578 Wpct - 1497 Wins)
  3. Joe T ---(.521 Wpct -- 591 Wins)
  4. Matt B --(.488 Wpct -- 553 Wins)

Central

  1. Lou P ---(.593 Wpct - 1535 Wins)
  2. TJ O ----(.489 Wpct - 1265 Wins)
  3. Brad P --(.521 Wpct - 1264 Wins)
  4. Leanne S (.492 Wpct -- 239 Wins)

West

  1. Allen C -(.370 Wpct -- 360 Wins)
  2. Gary G --(.428 Wpct -- 208 Wins)
  3. Justin B (.593 Wpct --- 96 Wins)
  4. John J - (New Owner)
NATIONAL LEAGUE (NON-DH)
East
  1. David K --(.568 Wpct - 276 Wins)
  2. Joe V ----(.514 Wpct - 250 Wins)
  3. Al H -----(.463 Wpct -- 75 Wins)
  4. Stephen L (New Owner)
Central
  1. Sean S ---(.541 Wpct - 1049 Wins)
  2. Jason B-- (.560 Wpct -- 635 Wins)
  3. Greg M ---(.404 Wpct -- 131 Wins)
  4. Will G ---(New Owner)
West
  1. Ivar A ---(.471 Wpct - 611 Wins)
  2. Brian B --(.470 Wpct - 533 Wins)
  3. Mike M ---(.525 Wpct - 170 Wins)
  4. Thomas R -(New Owner)

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Confirmed Owners and DH/No DH Preferences

Please start to send in your preferences for DH or no DH.  I'll update this list as things change

22 Confirmed Owners

DH Preference
Justin P
Justin Bo
Mike S
Lou P
Gary G
Matt B


No DH Preference
Brian B
Greg M
Mike M
Stephen L
Joe V
Sean S
Jason B
Ivar A
Will G

OK With Either Option
David K
Joe T
TJ O
Allen C

Preference Not Yet Stated
Brad P
Al H
Leanne S

Played Last Year, Awaiting Decision for This Year

Shotgun S
Jay H

Played Last Year, But Not Available This Year
PJ D
Jeff B
Steve C

Welcome Will G!

The funds funneled into the Helena recruiting  program has paid off.  Welcome Will G, friend of Joe T!

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Welcome Stephen Lee

We have our first new owner of the season.  Please welcome Stephen Lee from the DMB forums.

Welcome Stephen!

Friday, November 21, 2014

He Who Has Jarvis Will Succeed

Earlier today Ivar A made a comment to the effect "he promises not to draft Larry Walker" and this struck a chord with me.  For years during draft week, just about everyone knew Ivar wanted Walker and Allen C can't live without Jimmie Foxx.  Sure, it's a fun joke but how true is it?  And are there others even more dedicated to a certain player or two.

Yes and Yes.

Ivar has been an owner for 8 seasons and has drafted Walker in five of them.  Allen has been an owner for 6 seasons and has drafted Jimmie Foxx in half of them.  We might as well call Allen a Beene lover too though, he's gone with Fred Beene just as often.

Those are very high draft rates but hardly remarkable for our league.

  • Of the 21 current owners who have participated in at least two seasons, only 3 have failed to draft someone less than half of their seasons.
  • In fact, the average owner drafts one of his favorites 62% of the time.

Here are some of the extremes.

  • Brad has a man crush on Cal Ripken, going with the shortstop 6 times
  • Brian drafted Jose Canseco and Ray Dandridge 4 of 7 times.
  • Gary G has played in three seasons, and in all three has ended with Jay Johnstone, Shane Victorino, Jim Konstanty, and Pet Rose
  • Jason B likes Joey Belle - 4 of 7 times
  • Jay H goes Charles Johnson and Phil Regan 60% of the time
  • Joe T and Gil McDougald where made for each other, with the infielder going 71% of the time to Helena
  • Matt B has selected HoJo 4 of 7 years
  • Going back to Tony Larussa days, Sean S has always liked Joel Horlen, and in modern ATB history has gone with the pitcher 5 of 8 times.
  • Shotgun enjoys the company of JJ PUtz (4 of 6 years)
  • Steve C prefers consistency at backstop, drafting Deacon White 4 of 7 years.
  • Even the newer owners are getting in on the action.  Three time owners Dave K and Joe V have drafted 16 players between them twice, and two time owners Greg M and Mike M have drafted 5 players in both their seasons.
  • The most loyal though is Justin P.  Of all the darn relievers in the game, he has ended up with Pat Jarvis an incredible 8 of 11 times.  Justin is currently ranked as the best owner in ATB history, and therefore it stands to reason he who has Jarvis will succeed.  Thus, it is my personal mission to draft Jarvis early in round 2

The four owners who like a little variety?

  • Jeff B has never drafted anyone more than 4 times in 9 years (Dolf Luque)
  • Mike M never more than 5 of 11 (Jeff Gray and Kevin Millwood)
  • TJ O never more than 5 of 11 (Charlie Keller)
  • Lou P never more than 4 in 11 (Stan Musial)

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Quote from Earl Weaver

Fits in nicely for the current sports season....

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock.  You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance.  That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.  ~Earl Weaver

Top All Time Rotations

Last week looked at the best lineup in ATB history, and so now, naturally, we need to take a look at the best rotation.  Using the same methodology but replacing ATB Value Runs with the RSAA statistic, we find that the ATB 12 John McDonald Fanclub rotation was the best ever in ATB.  Just like the DC Chips, this team had the best no matter how we slice the data.  Their total RSAA scores were tops when analyzing the best two starters on a team, the best three, and the best four.

Three other teams are realistically "in the conversation".  The top 2, 3, and 4 starters scores are in parenthesis.

ATB 9 Dyersville Black Sox (-80.3, -113.1, -129.1)
-47.1: 2004 Randy Johnson .(2.63 ERA, 233 IP, 2.38 RCERA)
-33.2: 1962 Hank Aguirre ..(3.11 ERA, 237 IP, 2.94 RCERA)
-24.7: 2003 Jason Schmidt .(3.22 ERA, 204 IP, 3.11 RCERA)
-22.7: 2002 Curt Schilling (3.10 ERA, 235 IP, 3.33 RCERA)

ATB 12 Dumais Wells Oath Binders (-78.7, -107.5, -100.7)
-45.7: 1919 Babe Adams ....(2.76 ERA, 235 IP, 2.41 RCERA)
-33.0: 1948 Harry Brecheen (2.04 ERA, 198 IP, 2.66 RCERA)
-28.8: 1904 Noodles Hahn ..(3.03 ERA, 214 IP, 2.95 RCERA)
  6.8: 1902 Rube Waddell ..(3.90 ERA, 122 IP, 4.66 RCERA)

ATB 15 Otherton Fishbiscuits (-83.3, -113.1, -129.1)
-49.2: 2000 Pedro Martinez (2.61 ERA, 297 IP, 2.54 RCERA)
-34.1: 1902 Bill Bernhard .(3.29 ERA, 287 IP, 2.96 RCERA)
-29.8: 1966 Juan Marichal .(3.54 ERA, 285 IP, 3.09 RCERA)
-16.0: 1993 Danny Darwin ..(3.73 ERA, 195 IP, 3.29 RCERA)

And our winners:

ATB 12 John McDonald Fanclub (-90.1, -129.7, -169.0)
-48.4: 1946 Tex Hughson ....(2.67 ERA, 256 IP, 2.46 RCERA)
-41.7: 1942 Mort Cooper ....(2.34 ERA, 177 IP, 2.04 RCERA)
-39.6: 1884 George Bradley .(2.53 ERA, 224 IP, 2.57 RCERA)
-39.3: 2000 Pedro Martinez .(2.70 ERA, 213 IP, 2.50 RCERA)


That is quite remarkable.  No other team has approached 3 starters with RSAA marks around 40, and this team has four.  Unfortunately for the Fanclub their offense was quite bad this year, finishing 19th in runs scored resulting in an 88 win season, a full 16 games off the pace in their division.

One thing that irks me with RSAA is the potential to rely too heavily on innings pitched.  The four teams with the lowest runs against in league history don't make the top 4.  It is possible that their bullpens played a large role, but it is also possible that RSAA isn't the best measure.

Let's look at the two of those teams, the ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters and Dosequis Interesting Men, both of which only allowed 540 runs all year.

ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters (-40.7, -53.5, -60.3)
-21.7: 1987 Jimmy Key ......(3.06 ERA, 205 IP, 2.70 RCERA)
-19.0: 1928 Garland Braxton (2.49 ERA, 184 IP, 2.72 RCERA)
-12.8: 1901 Al Orth ........(3.66 ERA, 213 IP, 3.11 RCERA)
 -6.9: 1988 Teddy Higuera ..(3.45 ERA, 187 IP, 3.32 RCERA)

ATB 16 Dosequis Interesting Men (-48.3, -57.9, -66.7)
-37.1: 1902 Jesse Tannehill.(2.66 ERA, 244 IP, 2.28 RCERA)
-11.1: 1908 3-Finger Brown (3.20 ERA, 233 IP, 3.22 RCERA)
 -9.7: 1946 Hal Newhouser .(2.65 ERA, 193 IP, 3.20 RCERA)
 -8.7: 1957 Johnny Podres .(3.33 ERA, 224 IP, 3.30 RCERA)


It's plain to see - the Fanclub's rotation holds up here as well.  Congrats JMF!

Thursday, November 13, 2014

My Kind of Lineup - the ATB 10 DC Chips

The ATB 17 (!) season is quickly approaching and I have been racking my brain trying to find a way back into the swing of things with an article or two.  I originally hoped to focus on offensive  prowess by identifying the the best infield and outfields in our history, but this quickly became an insurmountable task due to the way DMB stores data.

Fielding data is not readily reportable and as a result, most of the time I can only report on real-life positions.  If someone decides to play Ducky Medwick at 1st base instead of left field, I am generally blind to it.  To pick the best outfield, I would have to comb through every team throughout our history and manually identify the most common lineups.  Maybe one day, but not today.

Instead I thought I would focus on the best 1-2, or 1-2-3 combinations that owners have been able to field.  To save time, I chose ATB Value Runs as the primary indicator of success.  As a result, this study turned out to be more about well rounded players than solely offensive success.

And hence the title, "My Kind of Lineup".  You see, ATB Value Runs is really just a made up stat. Sure, there are legit calculations behind it - Weighted On Base, Defensive Studies, and park factors are the three most critical - but ultimately it comes down to judgement on how to bring each individual metric into one tidy number.

That judgement of course, was solely mine.  Looking at ATB Value, I am really looking at how I personally value players and nothing more.

Which team has been the most "My Kind of Team" through the years on offense?  It turns out there is really no contest.  The ATB 10 DC Chips owned by Steve C have the single best ATB Value Runs scored of all time, plus the best two ATB Value Runs Scored, plus the best 3, all the way down to all nine slots in the lineup.

I love looking at these guys:
 
 
 
This team had everything. 
 
  • Power?  Three guys with 30+ home runs led by Barry Bonds.  This, in a park where the HR factor for the team was 53 and the division was 67
  • Speed?  How does 7 regulars that averaged 30 SB's between them sound.
  • Defense? 5 Ex rating defenders, a team error rate of 66, 2 Ex Armed Outfielders, and an Ex armed catcher. 
  • On Base?  Bonds had the highest OBP ever recorded and the team averaged .362.
Steve's DC Chips  of ATB 10 hold the record for the most wins and are one of only three teams to lead a league in Runs Scored and Runs Against.  Most telling of all I think, is what round these players are drafted in our current environment:
 
Rd 1 - Barry Bonds
Rd 1 - Larry Walker
Rd 1 - Oscar Charleston (though, this is the old OC)
Rd 2 - Eddie Collins
Rd 5 - Jesse Burkett
Rd 5 - Pop Lloyd
Rd 9 - Roy Campanella
Rd 9 - Todd Helton
Rd 10 - Howard Johnson
 
Nice job Steve.
 

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Useful Access Database Tool

All statistics from 1871 through 2013 in a handy reporting tool.  Needs MS Access though.

http://www.myers-art.com/BaseballApplication.html

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

A New 500 Resims (355 Anyway)

Well, I got to 355 and had enough.  DMB says 100 simulations is needed  to understand a players true baseline so we are well above the minimum.

Before our upcoming ATB 17 (!) season just a few months away, I wanted to tackle another resim baseline.  Recall, in the past two years we have tweaked the era and added players, and I figure every few years it will be valuable to re-baseline the league.  I purposely did not wait until the MLB season so that each year there is some mystery to how the newest players will perform.

The full report is here and the player cards are updated as well.  Below are some highlights for the newest players:

Batters worth a Look
.271 / .366 / .451, 31 HR - Miguel Cabrera (2013)
.270 / .382 / .395, 47 2B - Joey Votto (2012)
.243 / .345 / .422, 38 SB - Mike Trout (2013)

Batters to Pass On
.255 / .312 / .381, 19 HR - Andrew McCutchen (2012)
.228 / .299 / .358, 18 HR - Paul Goldschmidt (2013)

Pitchers worth a Look
1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.92 Adj ERA - Koji Uehara (2013)
2.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.49 Adj ERA - Fernando Rodney (2012)
2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.63 Adj ERA - Jacob McGee (2012)
3.51 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.62 Adj ERA - Clayton Kershaw (2013)
3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.66 Adj ERA - Max Scherzer (2013)

Pitchers to Pass On
3.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.91 Adj ERA - Glen Perkins (2013)
4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.53 Adj ERA - Mark Melancon (2013)

Adjusted ERA is my new stat for Resim pitcher data.  It is the pitchers ERA adjusted to reflect the defense behind him.  The adjustment is calculated using the defensive metric values from studies I've shared over the years.  Each position can add or subtract a few percentages points of ERA.  Add up the positions for a while team, weighting them for the importance of that position (ex. SS Range more important than C range).

A few examples:

Sandy Koufax (1966) looks pretty good by previous resim measures.  4.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 189 hits in 198 innings.  That is definitely worth a draft pick.  Digging deeper though, his defense was among the best in the resims.  Eddie Collins, Ron Santo, Bill Dickey, and Omar Vizquel held down the infield (along with Av/31 Harmon Killebrew at 1st) while  the Roy Thomas, Ed Delahanty, and Paul Waner roamed the outfield.  That is quite good and as a result many runs were saved.  Accounting for this gives Koufax a gaudy 4.63 ERA had the defense been average.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Randy Johnson (2001).  He simmed well with a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP but his defense was suspect in several places.   Adjusting for it brings his ERA down to 3.06.

Cherry picking some interesting cases:
3.37 adjusted to 3.16 - Roger Clemens (1986)
3.44 adjusted to 3.18 - Johnny Podres (1957)
3.30 adjusted to 3.67 - Jerry Reuss (1980)
4.21 adjusted to 4.62 - Bill Foster (1932)
3.34 adjusted to 3.60 - Jason Schmidt (2003)

The vast majority of adjustments are upward.  Since the auto draft was used, it is important to remember that the DMB AI relies heavily on defense and the the coputer fields a much better fielding team than ATB managers normally would.  As a result, only 15% of the pitchers saw their ERA improve.

Finally, it is interesting how close some of the players results are to the 500 sims from a few years ago.  Randomly picking some players to compare:

Adrian Gonzalez 2009
355 - .223 / .306 / .407
500 - .224 / .305 / .405

Benny Kauff 1915
355 - .287 / .375 / .435
500 - .284 / .373 / .428

Edgar Wesley 1925
355 - .266 / .328 / .465
500 - .269 / .332 / .465

Honus Wagner 1908
355 - .296 / .346 / .455
500 - .302 / .345 / .464

The vast majority of players remain unchanged, but there are a few curiosities:

Ted Williams 1941
355 - .321 / .451 / .560
500 - .327 / .475 / .570

Oscar Charleston 1924
355 - .324 / .407 / .604
500 - .338 / .442 / .625

Lou Gehrig 1927
355 - .299 / .407 / .622
500 - .303 / .422 / .632

Those are the three biggest changes and it is odd that they are all big names and odd they all suffered instead of improved.  I don't have an explanation.  Among full time players, 95.0 % of the time the difference OPS between the 500 resims of two years ago and this years 355 resims in were within 2.5% of each other.  But a handful of players suffered relatively wild swings.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Current era Batters May be Worth A Look Again

Click to Enlarge

Average OPS scores have been plummeting for years, mostly due to declining power #s.  No idea what that could be from (wink, wink).  There is even a chance no batter reaches 40 home runs.

For ATB this is important information.  As we all know, DMB compares a player to his peers of the era to determine how good they will pan out.  The lower the offensive season on average, the better chance a great batter will stand out.

This year, Mike Trout looks to be the best choice, by I do miss his .430 OBP!

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

All Time Manager Power Rankings Update - CORRECTION

1) 650 Pts - Justin Petronzi (+1 Chg)
2) 649 Pts - Lou Poulas (-1 Chg)
3) 628 Pts - Mike Smitko (0 Chg)
4) 609 Pts - Steve Chippendale (0 Chg)
5) 591 Pts - Jason Bernarndon (1 Chg)
6) 576 Pts - Sean Seeley (-1 Chg)
7) 563 Pts - Brad Peterson (0 Chg)
8) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski (0 Chg)
9) 540 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter (0 Chg)
10) 539 Pts - Joe Terry (0 Chg)
11) 532 Pts - TJ Olszewski (0 Chg)
12) 512 Pts - Jeff Burns (1 Chg)
13) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein (1 Chg)
14) 509 Pts - Shotgun Spratling (3 Chg)
15) 505 Pts - Matt Brody (0 Chg)
16) 495 Pts - David Kuenn (2 Chg)
17) 494 Pts - Jay Seeley (-1 Chg)
18) 494 Pts - Brian Barnes (2 Chg)
19) 489 Pts - Ivar Anderson (0 Chg)
20) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas (1 Chg)
21) 459 Pts - Joe Valenzano (5 Chg)
22) 447 Pts - Jay Hattem (3 Chg)
23) 434 Pts - Kevin Crowley (1 Chg)
24) 428 Pts - Leane Sarubbi (-2 Chg)
25) 375 Pts - Allen Cherulnik  (6 Chg)
26) 370 Pts - Gary Gambino (3 Chg)
27) 306 Pts - Justin Burnson (-15 Chg)
28) 306 Pts - Scott Carter (7 Chg)
29) 297 Pts - Mike Green (7 Chg)
30) 297 Pts - Justin Bossert (NA Chg)
31) 275 Pts - Bruce Nalepka (7 Chg)
32) 267 Pts - Mike Murphy (5 Chg)
33) 260 Pts - Michael Rippe (-10 Chg)
34) 256 Pts - Larry Caggiano (5 Chg)
35) 238 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh (-8 Chg)
36) 235 Pts - Jim Nugent (4 Chg)
37) 235 Pts - Richard Madachik (4 Chg)
38) 234 Pts - Matt Hinzpeter (-10 Chg)
39) 231 Pts - Mike Wishnick (3 Chg)
40) 231 Pts - Scott Salley (3 Chg)
41) 231 Pts - Al Hastick (NA Chg)
42) 225 Pts - Dennis Slinger (2 Chg)
43) 225 Pts - Ted Knorr (2 Chg)
44) 221 Pts - Ben Matsil (-14 Chg)
45) 216 Pts - Bob Lessard (1 Chg)
46) 216 Pts - PJ Dodds (NA Chg)
47) 213 Pts - Paul Nebenfuer (0 Chg)
48) 210 Pts - Devon Eckhart (-16 Chg)
49) 210 Pts - Andy Matsil (-16 Chg)
50) 210 Pts - Greg Stillwagon (-2 Chg)
51) 207 Pts - Jason Schwartz (-2 Chg)
52) 204 Pts - Greg Murphy (0 Chg)
53) 198 Pts - John Wolford (-3 Chg)
54) 194 Pts - Chris Kelly (-3 Chg)
55) 192 Pts - Adam Bloomquist (-21 Chg)
56) 188 Pts - Rod Aukamp (-3 Chg)
57) 188 Pts - Adam Luther (-3 Chg)
58) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes (-3 Chg)
59) 185 Pts - Bill Nyman (-3 Chg)
60) 173 Pts - Paul Taschereau Jr (-3 Chg)
61) 167 Pts - Neil Book (-3 Chg)
62) 164 Pts - Mario Iafrate & Russ Palmer (-3 Chg)

Justin is the new leader!!!  I had a formula error.

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/All%20Time%20Managers%20Through%20ATB%20XVI.xlsx

Hall of Famers for ATB XVI

The Hall of Fame page has been updated.  New HOF'ers for this year are:









Player Cards Updated

New this year...

  1. Improved batter and pitcher graphs
  2. Pitchers:  Added RCERA and K/BB
  3. Batters:  Added ATB Value and ATB Value Runs
  4. (IF | OF | ARM) moved to the left.  THese are only available in resim stat lines.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

All Time Great Resim - The Gossamers Dethroned

OK!  100 sims for another quick All Time Greatest ATB team competition.  I eliminated the 'worst' 4 teams from our previous ATG competition and replaced them with the top 4 from ATB 16.

Eliminated
ATB 08 Van Nest Phighting Philbens (Jeff B)
ATB 11 Windy City Potato Pickers (Lou P)
ATB 12 Helena Handbaseket (Joe T)
ATB 15 John McDonald Fanclub (Joe V)

New Entrants
ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
ATB 16 John McDonald Fanclub
ATB 16 Brighton Shadows
ATB 16 Dos Equis Interesting Men

After 100 resims (regular season only), here are the results:


It may not seem like much, but over the course of 100 seasons 0.8 wins and 8 runs is a clear victory for the Pinata Beaters, who have officially dethroned the Gold Country Gossamers as the best ATB team of all time.  Well, almost officially.  A few years ago I ran a much larger competition - season by season with playoffs - to crown a champion.  That takes some time and have never repeated it.  Since then, i have run quick "100 resims" and simply taken the average results of the regular season.

For now, Justin is the well deserved champion, but one day we'll have to see how his team fares in the post season of 100 sims to crown an ultimate champ.

Congrats JP!