Tuesday, April 30, 2013

ATB Records Update

  • Ed Delahanty (Red Eagles) doubled twice and has 61, three off the record.
  • Turkey Stearnes (Red Eagles) drove in 2, and is 8 off the record.
  • Pedro Martinez (Fishbiscuits) got shelled by DC and now has a 0.93 WHIP, .03 off the record.  
  • Red Ryan ("Mechanics") had a tough night too, and now has a 0.92 WHIP, .02 off the record
  • The Hoplites gave up 12 runs in 2 games and now have 531 runs against on the season.  They have 5 games left, and need to hold opponents to 2.6 runs per game to beat the record.

Races Update

AL West
All Eyes turn toward the three game set 9/27-9/29

AL Wild Card

Red Lectroids will not go away, making strides and hurting their "Mechanic" rivals at the same time.

Both teams can't lose another game

NL Wild Card
Is basically over

Sim 12C Complete

Is Ball Four The Wild Card Favorites?

Well, no.  But you can make a case they have a real chance at upsetting the Wild Card leading Wildlings.

Ball Four is 4 games out with 6 to play.  Hardly in a good position.  However they commence a 3-game set with the Wildlings tonight, and close out the season with 3 games against the 62-94 Brews.

The Wildings have 8 games remaining, Ball Four just 6.  Lets play out the most extreme scenario (within the realm of plausibility).

The Wildlings lose game 1 tonight, and with an off day for Ball Four, they're 3.5 games out.

If Ball Four takes 2 of 3 from the Wildlings, they'll head to the Brews series with a 2.5 game deficit.  Probably not close enough.

However, the Wildlings close the season with a 4-game set against Planet 10.  The Wildlings are just 3-5 against Planet 10 this year and it stands to reason they may lose 3 of 4 in this series.

If Ball Four sweeps the Brews, certainly possible as they're already 7-2 against them, it would result in a tie and a one game playoff.

A LOT has to break right for Ball Four, but stranger things have happened.

Note:  Not to mention the "Mechanics" are just 3 games back and the Red Lectroids just 4.  Remember, the Red Lectroids finish the season with a 4 game set against the Wildlings. 

Can you say 4 way tie?

Some ATB Records Are Falling

We've already seen the home run record fall and faithful readers have combed the record books and discovered some others.

  • The "Mechanics" George Hall has 31 triples, besting a mark of 30 which he set himself in ATB 13 with the Hathsin Survivors.
  • With 7 games remaining, the Red Eagles Turkey Stearnes needs 10 RBI to tie the all time record set by Reggie Jackson (Pill Poppers) way back in ATB 8.
  • Elsewhere on Manetheren, the doubles record may fall not once, not twice, but an incredible three times.  Ed Delahanty (Potato Pickers) holds the current record with 64 doubles, set in ATB 11.  This season Delahanty has 59 and an outside chance at 64.  His teammates Joey Votto and Turkey Stearns have already obliterated the record, slamming 71 and 69 doubles respectively.  
  • As an aside, recall that in the offseason we changed the era to increase doubles dramatically.  Well, it's worked.  The previous team record was 290 set by the Michigan Lakers in ATB VIII.  Four teams have bested the mark this year, led by Manetheren at 341.
  • Pedro Martinez of ATB VII holds the all time WHIP record at 0.90.  This season, the Fishbiscuits version of Pedro is currently hovering at 0.90 and Red Ryan of Carlisle is at 0.91
  • Finally, the all time team record for fewest runs allowed was set by the Black Sox in ATB 9.  They had a team ERA of 3.19 and won 96 games.  This season, the Fishbiscuits gave it a run, but need to allow just 8 runs in their last 7 games to tie the record.  Luckily for us, we have the Sparta Hoplites.  With 7 games remaining as well, Sparta has given up just 519 runs and realistically should set the record.  They are on pace to yield 542 runs but a solid final few games and they could best it handily. 
Special thanks to Brian B and Matt B for sending these in over the past few days!

Monday, April 29, 2013

Suddenly AL West Race Matters

After taking the first two games against John McDonald, Rusty Kuntz suddenly finds themselves just 3 games out 8 games remaining.  More importantly, four of those games are against the team they are chasing.

In game 1, Juan Padron picked up his 10th win thanks to Roger Maris and Joe DiMaggio home runs.  In game 2, Cy Young tossed a 3-hitter and Reggie Jackson went nuts, drilling 3 home runs, all solo shots.

Wild Card Races

Sim 12B Complete

Comish's Leaders

Ranking the Trades

With under a week left we can make final determinations as to who got the best from each trade.  There were 10 in all this season, listed below in the order of magnitude that aided the "winning side" of each.

10) Manetheren acquires Roy Patterson and JJ Hardy from the Otherton for Jimmy Collins and William Bell. 

Sometimes owners just like to trade and there is no apparent reason why.  Manetheren got the best of this deal with Patterson pitching 8 scoreless innings.  Not exactly a resounding endorsement of the trade.  Jimmy Collins fell flat on his face sporting a .445 OPS in 137 at bats.

9) Puerto Cabellas acquires Matt Kemp, Jonathan Papelbon, and Clayton Kershaw from the Wildlings for Kas Sasaki, Manny Ramirez, and Charlie Gehringer.

This trade was a mixed bag for the winner, Puerto Cabellas.  Kemp (.277 OBP) and Kershaw (5.13 ERA) did not pan out but Papelbon was very good (3.18 ERA) in 40 innings.  For the Wildlings, it's a trade "could have been."  Manny and Gehringer accumulated just a handful of at bats before being dropped and released.  Gehringer went on to successfully start in a crucial middle infield position while Manny currently has a .904 OPS.  If they were still on the team, combined with Sasaki (1.80 ERA in 25 IP) the Wildlings would have had the best trade of the season.

8) Helena acquires George Foster from Colorado for Ralph Kiner.

Foster hit 16 home runs in 198 at bats, providing much needed power for Helena.  This would have been better ranked than 8th had Foster not suffered from a .285 OBPKiner currently has a .664 OPS, too low for a slugger in Coors Field.

7)  Helena acquires Dave McNally from Manetheren for Russ Ford.

McNally was solid, winning 5 of 11 with a better than league average ERA and WHIP.  Most importantly for Helena, Ford was in need of a new home and just getting him off the roster for a usable part was a win.  For what it is worth, Ford has a 4.91 ERA for Manetheren (though somehow he is 7-3).

6) DC acquires Dazzy Vance from the Wildlings for Javier Vazquez

Vane has pitched very well, starting 22 games and currently has a 3.79 ERA.  More indicative of his success is the 1.21 WHIP.  Vazquez was dropped after pitching a handful of innings.

5) Manetheren acquires Charlie Gehringer from the Wildlings for Dave Orr and Larry Dierker.

Since the trade, Gehringer has the 8th best OPS among starting shortstops.  Orr never got it going (.628 OPS) and Dierker's been even worse (5.70 ERA).

4) Spanish Harlem acquires Jeff Zimmerman from Helena for Neftali Feliz

Feliz has been wonderful - 0.98 WHIP and a 2.56 ERA in 53 innings.  For that, Spanish Harlem just gave up a 3.80 ERA in 21 innings.

3) Spanish Harlem acquires Harvey Haddix from Colorado for Paul Wilson

Haddix has started 14 games going 10-3 with a 1.13 WHIP.  He may be the key the Beaters post season.  Wilson's garnered a 4.43 ERA in 45 innings.

2) Shamokin acquires Eddie Cicotte from Niagara Falls for Catfish Hunter

In our first trade of the season, Shamokin has made use of Cicotte to the tune of 24 starts, a 3.53 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP.  Perhaps it's Hunter's record makes this trade look so good for Shamokin: 0-11 in 17 starts with a 5.02 ERA.

1) Rarely do trades help out both sides, but this one did, and both sides did well enough to call it a tie with each owner getting exactly what they wished for.

John McDonald received Don Newcombe (9-1, 3.24 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and Eddie Mathews (33 HR and 56 RBI in 363 AB), and has been the best of the AL West ever since the trade.

Otherton received Dennis Eckersley (1.41 ERA, 22 Sv, 1.00 WHIP) and Ezra Sutton (.732 OPS - 8th best in league, plus Ex/61 defense).

All four players have been crucial to both teams run towards the post season.

Total Days Lost to Injury

CGS - 139 Days Lost (22 Injuries)
LS -- 133 Days Lost (18 Injuries)
RKA - 110 Days Lost (18 Injuries)
DCC - 108 Days Lost (17 Injuries)
NFB - 106 Days Lost (15 Injuries)
HH -- 101 Days Lost (19 Injuries)
BF -- 97 Days Lost (23 Injuries)
SPB - 93 Days Lost (21 Injuries)
PBE - 85 Days Lost (22 Injuries)
RBB - 78 Days Lost (16 Injuries)
BS -- 78 Days Lost (17 Injuries)
NVB - 78 Days Lost (16 Injuries)
OFB - 67 Days Lost (24 Injuries)
DT -- 66 Days Lost (21 Injuries)
PCP - 61 Days Lost (17 Injuries)
PRL - 60 Days Lost (14 Injuries)
JMF - 58 Days Lost (16 Injuries)
TWW - 57 Days Lost (16 Injuries)
SH -- 55 Days Lost (12 Injuries)
LPL - 53 Days Lost (19 Injuries)
DB -- 49 Days Lost (20 Injuries)
MRE - 37 Days Lost (14 Injuries)
WPM - 36 Days Lost (14 Injuries)
SM -- 32 Days Lost (14 Injuries)

I expect those teams at the top to have a good showing in the 20 resims

Standings Since...

August 20 (1 Month Ago)

The All Star Break.  If this were all that mattered, Otherton and the The Wall would have missed the playoffs in favor of Leesburg and Planet 10

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Sim 12A Complete

Time Almost Up for the "Mechanics" and Bears

With around 14 games remaining time is running out for the "Mechanics" and Bears.  Both teams are 4.5 games out and do not control their own destiny's.  No matter how well they play, the need the Wild Card leading Fishbiscuits and Wildlings to lose more than they win as well.

In the American League, the "Mechanics" have a legitimate chance at holding up their end of the bargain.  They have 12 games remaining, 9 of which are at home.  The face the Burnt Ends 4 times, the Red Lectroids 3, the Red Eagles 3, and Ball Four 2.  Only the Red Eagles have a winning record.  However, during the season, the "Mechanics" have exactly a .500 record against these squads.

The Bears on the other hand are in a true predicament.  8 of their remaining 13 games are on the road and they face the Miners 6 times, the Pandas 4, and the Pretty Ladies 3.  The Miners are heading to the playoffs and the Pandas are the hottest team in the league.  They've lost 13 of 16 against the Miners, but are well over .500 against the Pandas and Ladies.

Both teams should be considered extreme long shots, with Carlisle having a slightly better chance to catch up.

McGwire Sets ATB Home Run Record

On September 14 Mark McGwire hit his 68th home run.  Congrats Big Mac!

Power Alley Great 8

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Power Alley - Week 11

+4 Puerto Cabellas Pandas
+3 Ball Four

-3 DC Chips
-4 Carlisle "Mechanics"

Friday, April 26, 2013

Players of the Week - Sim 11

Willie Stargell (Rusty Kuntz All Stars)
.462 / .543 / .1.256, 1.800 OPS, 27.6 RC, 10 HR, 13 RBI

Nip Winters (Leesburg Snowhole)
1-1, 1.50 ERA, 1.03 RCERA, 18 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 16 K, 0.61 WHIP

20th Anniversary of McRae Losing His Mind

Never saw this, it's hilarious.  Be sure to read about it THT.

Standings Summary - Week 11

It's a case of too little too late.  The Puerto Cabellas Pandas were a pre-season favorite for the NL West title but instead of struggled to stay above .500 all season long.  With a 10-3 record this week, Brad has shown just how dangerous his team could have been.  The Pandas batted .301 / .340 / .341 as a team with Phil Caveretta (.380 / .415 / .480) and Tip O'Neill (.373 / .389 / .686) enjoying notable success.

Their bats helped Puerto Cabellas in sweeping both Helena and North Valley, and taking series from DC, Shamokin, and the Pretty Ladies.

Noodles Hahn and Babe Adams anchored the rotation, going undefeated in 5 starts with a combined 2.50 ERA.  The bullpen was key for the entire week however - Steve Reed, Steve Bedrosian, BJ Ryan, Ellis Kinder, and Jonathan Papelbon combined for 30.2 innings of 3-run ball.

It was a ho-hum week in the American League, with no single team catching fire to claim "Team of the Week" status.  Ball Four ended up with the best Run Differential (a quite good +29) so they get the honors.

Justin Duchscherer started two games and gave up just 1 run while a quartet in the pen shone above the rest.  All Grabowski and Kenley Jansen didn't give up a run in 10 innings and Mariano Rivera and Frankie Rodriguez allowed just 2 runs to score in 20 innings.

The offense powered the team on most nights, smacking 21 home runs in 15 games. Jim Edmonds had a 1.232 OPS thanks to 6 homers, scoring 16 in the process.  Heavy Johnson added 5 shots batting .387 / .433 / .629 in the process.  The team batted .294 / .358 / .460.

There were no major changes to the Wild Card race.  Both the Wildlings and Fishbiscuits have a 4.5 game lead with their magic numbers down to 9 games.

Elsewhere, the Red Eagles and Shadows clinched playoff births with the Hoplites on the brink, sporting a magic number of 1.  The Beaters, Fanclub, and Miners all have at least a 6-game lead for the divisional crowns and barring disaster will head to the playoffs as well.

If the playoffs ended today:
- Wildings @ Red Eagles
- Fanclub @ Hoplites

- Fishbiscuits @ Shadows
- Miners @ Beaters

Predictathon Update

Heading into the last week:

30 - Justin P
30 - Lou P
26 - Brian B
26 - Mike S
26 - Ted K
14 - Joe V


Thursday, April 25, 2013

Sim 11E Complete

A Lefty Who Kills Lefties

ATB Value Update

Average ATB Value by Pos
c 0.296
1b 0.328
2b 0.312
3b 0.308
ss 0.292
lf 0.321
cf 0.322
rf 0.318
dh 0.333

RSAA Update


Average Pitcher ERA
4.30 - Starters
3.57 - Relievers

Jenks has a 0.16 ERA!

The Turf Advantage

Interesting tidbit tonight from faithful owner, Brian B (Fishbiscuits) - "the 4 teams that play their games on turf are 3 of the top 4 and the 4th is almost at .500".

This is true.  The Red Eagles, Red Lectroids, Pinata Beaters, and Shadows are a combined 343-245 (.583).  But what of league's past?

ATB 14 - .557 (4 teams)
ATB 13 - .515 (3 teams)
ATB 12 - .547 (3 teams)
ATB 11 - .577 (4 teams)
ATB 10 - .609 (3 teams)

Hmm.  Brian may in fact be onto something.  I didn't have the time to write the following down, but I also noticed many of these teams had incredible records at home, further lending credence to the fact turf may impact games more than we realized.

Or, could it simply be good owners?  Of the 20 teams I found, half of them were owned by Lou P, Steve C, and Jason B and these three have combined for a career W-L record of 2228-1614 (.580).  Is their success due to the park or because they know what they're doing on draft day?

There were no repeat owners of the remaining ten instances since ATB 10 - David, Ivar, Jay s, Jeff, Justin P, Leanne, Matt, Mike, Sean, and Shotgun only tried the turf once each.  This group of owners also have had solid careers, combining for a .534 career winning percentage.

So, what is it?  Does the park make the owner?  Or does the owner make the park?

When I have time I will try and look at the winning percentages of these owners on turf vs grass fields.

Good one Brian!

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Sim 11C Complete

Bears Making a Run at the NL Wild Card

Finally, a race?

The North Valley Bears are on a 4 game winning streak after taking the last two games of a 3 game set against Brighton and opening a new series against Lancaster with back to back wins.

Coupled with a week of .500 ball from Otherton, the Bears are now 2.5 games out of the wild card.

Unfortunately for us, the two teams will not meet again down the stretch.  Here's their remaining schedules:

Otherton (16 on the Road, 4 at Home)
6 - vs Helena
5 - vs Detroit
5 - vs DC
4 - vs Brighton

North Valley (13 on the Road, 7 at Home)
9 - Shamokin
6 - Puerto Cabellas
5 - Lancaster

Standings Charts - Week 11

Monday, April 22, 2013

Sim 11B Complete

MVP by Way of Runs Created

The major regular season ATB awards are voted on by the owners.  Some take a scientific view analyzing all stats while others take more of a high level view, perusing the leader boards to make their decision.  Others may refuse to vote for a player on a losing team or vice versa, automatically leaning towards awarding an MVP to someone on a winning team.  It's a subjective award and there is no right or wrong answer as long as each voter is honest in their investigation.

One way to look at the MVP is to calculate a players worth to the team by simply determining the Runs Created percentage of team totals for each player.  I've done this mini-analysis for the past couple of years and while it has merits, in rally services to help zero in on the handful of legitimate candidates.

Here are the top 20 in the league to date:

23.0% - Charleston,Oscar (SPB)
21.0% - Hornsby,Rogers (DT)
19.5% - Bonds,Barry (JMF)
19.5% - Ruth,Babe (CGS)
18.9% - Williams,Ted (TWW)
18.8% - Gehrig,Lou (BS)
18.6% - Mantle,Mickey (HH)
17.4% - Rosen,Al (WPM)
17.2% - Barnes,Ross (DCC)
16.6% - Jackson,Joe (TWW)
16.6% - Musial,Stan (PBE)
16.0% - Cash,Norm (LS)
15.8% - Dunlap,Fred (RBB)
15.8% - Hall,George (WPM)
15.7% - Brouthers,Dan (DB)
15.6% - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE)
15.4% - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS)
15.3% - Vaughan,Arky (SM)
15.2% - Martinez,Edgar (SH)
15.1% - Shaffer,Orator (SH)

I do prefer to have my MVP candidates come from a team in the playoff hunt.  It's not a requirement, but all things being equal, I would choose a player on a winning team for my MVP choice.  Well, that's not entirely true – despite Rogers Hornsby's great year (.285 / .354 / .564 at second base), his Tigers are on pace for a 100-loss season and I feel that line isn't good enough to warrant any real consideration.

Filtering out those players on teams well out of the playoff hunt:

American League
19.5% - Bonds,Barry (JMF)
18.9% - Williams,Ted (TWW)
17.4% - Rosen,Al (WPM)
16.6% - Jackson,Joe (TWW)
15.8% - Hall,George (WPM)
15.6% - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE)
15.2% - Martinez,Edgar (SH)
15.1% - Shaffer,Orator (SH)

National League
23.0% - Charleston,Oscar (SPB)
18.8% - Gehrig,Lou (BS)
18.6% - Mantle,Mickey (HH)
17.2% - Barnes,Ross (DCC)
16.0% - Cash,Norm (LS)
15.4% - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS)
15.3% - Vaughan,Arky (SM)

Of these final 15, which have had superstar teammates to help them?  Here's a chart showing the percentage difference between the candidate and the next best batter on the team.  For instance, Barry Bonds accounts for 19.5% of the Fanclub's total Runs Created.  The second best batter on the team, Mark McGwire, accounts for 14.8%.  The difference between the two players is listed below.

American League
4.8% - Bonds,Barry (JMF)
2.7% - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE)
2.4% - Williams,Ted (TWW)
1.6% - Rosen,Al (WPM)
0.1% - Martinez,Edgar (SH)
2nd best on team - Jackson,Joe (TWW)
2nd best on team - Hall,George (WPM)
2nd best on team - Shaffer,Orator (SH)

National League
10.5% -Charleston,Oscar (SPB)
6.6% - Barnes,Ross (DCC)
5.6% - Mantle,Mickey (HH)
3.5% - Gehrig,Lou (BS)
2.6% - Vaughan,Arky (SM)
2.5% - Cash,Norm (LS)
2nd best on team - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS)

Oscar Charleston's 10.5% pops off the page at us.  We already knew the center fielder was the best player in the league, but did you know he's basically a 1-man show on offense, with no other Pinata Beater recording an OPS over .800?  The same is true for Ross Barnes of the Chips, both batters are critical to their teams success.

Contrarily, the Sparta Hoplites Edgar Martinez accounts 15.2% of his teams Runs Created and teammate Orator Shaffer accounts for 15.1%.  Martinez, while great this year, has less of an impact to his team since the supporting cast is more balanced.

My vote will be along these lines.  And this year, it happens the Charleston and Bonds are also raking the ball, and are in the top 5 OPS across ATB:

National League
1) 1.122 OPS, .356 / .461 / .661, 36 HR, 122 R, 127 RBI – Oscar

2) 0.982 OPS, .298 / .373 / .609, 40 HR, 100 R, 95 RBI – Gehrig

American League
3) 0.980 OPS, .307 / .439 / .541, 27 HR, 77 R, 100 RBI - Williams
4) 1.067 OPS, .265 / .410 / .657, 53 HR, 108 R, 102 RBI – Ruth
5) 0.973 OPS, .256 / .406 / .567, 42 HR, 96 R, 104 RBI – Bonds

Who would you give the MVP to?  Does Bonds surrounding cast make him more valuable than Ted Williams and Babe Ruth?

Comish's Leaders