Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Best Single Season Re-Sim Offense and Pitching Staff

In Sim 9, the Otherton Fish Biscuits let up only 541 runs with this pitching staff:

Other teams that came closer were the DC Chips (545) and Planet 10 (543)

In Sim 12, the Neanderthals scored 935 runs with this offense (2nd place was Fanclub with 927 runs):

Resim Power Alley: 4th through 1st

4th - Windy City Potato Pocketers (HC- It Might Be)
Owners: Lou Poulas
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 95/111
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 105/81
Avg RD: +137
Playoffs: 17 (6 Div Title)
MWP: 119

The "best" regular season team turns out to be of Top-5 quality only. Windy City had one of the best first halves in ATB history and when play ended on July 16, were on pace for a 120 win season. The second half was by no means poor, but the team fell off their pace to finish at 111. In truth, they were more like a 95 win team than anything approaching 100 wins let alone 110.

An average of 95 wins is still great of course. In 18 of the 20 seasons the team won at least 88 times and five times finished with 100 or more wins. They are our first team with a 200+ RD and never once finished with an RD below 39.

3rd - White Meadow Lake Black Stones (VS- It Gets By Buckner)
Owners: Mike Smitko
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 97/91
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 101/76
Avg RD: +115
Playoffs: 18 (15 Div Title)
MWP: 111

Head to Head is our 3rd place team truly better than our 4th? Likely not (Less wins, RD, MWP, etc) but they won an incredible 15 of 20 division titles, which goes a long way towards the ultimate goal of any fantasy league - winning the World Championship.

This team over performed in the regular season, winning 6 more games than can be expected. Their pitching staff was a little worse than the regular season showed (7% fewer runs given up) and a little better with the stick (8% more runs scored).

Only once in their 5 seasons without a division title did they fall short by more than 5 games, and in the other 4 they were within a combined 4 games of a tie.

Here's the title view of the division, now complete:

2nd - Bellevue Freakin Franchise (HC- It Could Be)
Owners: Brad Peterson
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 106/98
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 113/88
Avg RD: +166
Playoffs: 20 (19 Div Title)
MWP: 120

Well, this is what a season is all about:
  • Winning the world series
  • Averaging 98 re-sim wins
  • Sporting the best MWP in the league at 120
  • Winning the most single season re-sim wins at 113
Belleveue completely and totally dominated the Haray Carray "It could Be" Division, making the playoffs in all 20- re-sims and winning the division 19 times. In their one loss they even had a better team than Duke Street, losing by 2 games, but besting their rivals 127 to 73 in RD.

Congrats Brad - job well done.

1st - La Chapelle-aux-Saints Neanderthals (HC- It Might Be)
Owners: Justin Petronzi
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 96/103
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 110/94
Avg RD: +210
Playoffs: 20 (13 Div Title)
MWP: 119

And yet, there is a better team out there than Bellevue. The Neanderthal success in the re-sims is off the charts. The team averaged 103 wins; 85% of the teams in the league didn't win that many in their single best re-sim season. They actually won 110 or more games an incredible 15 times and at least 105 seven times.

We could go on for quite some time, but will leave with a two mesmerizing bullets. The team:
  • Never once had an RD below 145 (!)
  • Had an RD over 200 on eleven occasions, 4 more times than the rest of the league combined (!)

Resim Power Alley: 8th through 5th

8th - Helena Handbasket (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owners: Joe Terry
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 88/86
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 95/75

Avg RD: +46
Playoffs: 12 (4 Div Titles)
MWP: 102

Considered a fluke during the regular season because of their -7 run differential, Helena answered the naysayers with a very good showing during the Re-Sims. Our World Series runner-up finishes just inside the Top 10 after nine 85+ win seasons, six of which ended up being 90+.

During the ATB season, their offense underwhelmed by a considerable margin - 61 runs or 8% - leading to their negative RD.

In Sim 6, they finished in a 3-way tie for the division lead, matching both White Meadow Lake and I MIss Rod Beck with 86 wins. Thanks to their stellar +61 RD, they bested Rod Beck in the tie breaker for a Wild Card Birth, but lost out to White Meadow who had the best RD in the league at 182.

7th - Planet 10 (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: Ivar Anderson
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 88/88
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 107/88

Avg RD: +73
Playoffs: 9 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 115

One way Power Alley differentiates the 24 teams is by Max Win Potential, and Planet 10 is our first to have an elite MWP record. Their 13 win lead over Helena in wins also serves as a clear delineating factor between the two squads.

Planet 10 exactly matched their regular season win total of 88 games, but often played in the shadows of other during the re-sims. Eight times they won 90 or more games, and it took an incredible sim 14 win total of 107 to secure their one and only division lead.

A fun but meaningless stat - below are the average win totals of the division winners during the re-sims:

104 - HC, It Might Be
98 - HC, It Could Be
95 - VS, Behind the Bag
93 - VS, It Gets by Buckner

It took a lot to win in "It Might Be".

6th - John McDonald Fanclub (VS- Behind the Bag)
Owners: Jason Bernardon
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 109/88
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 104/77

Avg RD: +71
Playoffs: 9 (5 Div Title)
MWP: 111

In the last post we saw that Rusty Kuntz lost the most value with their poor regular season showing compared to the re-sim records, and now we see that no other team gained as much John McDonald. Victorious 109 times, second best in the regular season, Fanclub never once approached that same win total in the 20 re-sims. In Fact, they averaged "just" 88 wins and bested 100 twice.

Having compiled at least a +100 RD seven times, they are still a very good team though, and much more often then not were in the thick of a playoff race at the end of each season.

Only three times did they finish below .500.

5th - DC Chips (VS- Behind the Bag)
Owners: Steve Chippendale
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 88/90
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 100/80
Avg RD: +94
Playoffs: 13 (9 Div Title)
MWP: 119

The DC Chips are the first team to average 90 wins per season and therefore the first team to be tagged with the "great' moniker. They reached that win plateau 12 times and had a positive RD over 140 five times. Though winning 100 games only in Sim 18, they were routinely the best team in "Behind the Bag" and challenged for the best record in all of Vin Scully.

Their Max Win Potential is among the very best in the entire league. In sim 14 they scored 828 runs and in sim 18 yielded just 545 for an RD of +283.

Ranking DC completes our first division. The behind the bag playoff picture is as follows:

It's been a while since I have had a chance to continue the Re-sim Power Alley write-ups and thought I'd list the ranked teams we've reviewed to date:
  • Truly Awful (Average of 55 or less wins): Hey Howarya (24th), Downsouth Brews (23rd)
  • Awful (60-69 wins): Wedge Tornado (22nd)
  • Bad (70-78 wins): Bucky Dents Middle Name (21st), Cincinnati Redlegs (20th), I Miss Rod Beck (19th), Warning Track Power (18th)
  • About .500 (79-83 wins): Potomac Rage (17th), Willets Point Mechanics (16th), Old Pete's Rabble (15th), Edinburgh Caber Tossers (14th), Chi-Town Black Sox (13th), Otherton Fish Biscuits (12th), Duke Street Kings (11th)
  • Good (84-89 Wins): Rochester Beau Brummels (10th), Rusty Kuntz Travelling All Stars (9th), Helena Handbasket (8th), Planet 10 (7th), John McDonald Fanclub (6th)
  • Great (90-95 Wins) - DC Chips (5th), ???
  • Elite (96+ Wins) - ???

Resim Power Alley: 12th through 9th

12th - Otherton Fish Biscuits (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Brian Barnes
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 70/83
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 89/77

Avg RD: +20
Playoffs: 4
MWP: 100

Barnes' Biscuits underachieved more than any other ATB team during the regular season, falling short of their re-sim average by 13 games and their maximum re-sim win total by 19 games. They were also the most consistent re-sim team with a spread of just 12 games between the best and worst win totals.

No doubt, the regular season gamble on a 3-man rotation was an utter failure and the direct cause for their low win totals. The correction to 4-man came too late in the season to be of any impact and should serve as a warning to any future owner wishing to go down the path of running new starters out every 3rd day.

In 15 of 20 seasons, the Fishbiscuit's sported a .500 record or better, twice capping at 89. They were a wild card representative of the VS four times.

11th - Duke Street Kings (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: Jeff Burns
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 81/83
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/69

Avg RD: +33
Playoffs: 5 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 103

The first of our upper half teams, Duke Street was very solid winning 90 or more games 5 times, and 85 or more games 8 times. Flaws were apparent of course - the team failed to maintain a .500 season six times as well.

In re-sim 10 they won the division title by 2 games and made the playoffs 4 other times as a Wild Card. Their 103 Max Win Potential is tied with Potomac for the best we seen to date - 854 runs from Sim 5 combined with 688 Runs Against from Sim 9.

10th - Rochester Beau Brummels (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Leanne Sarubi
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 85/87
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 104/68

Avg RD: +33
Playoffs: 8 (2 Div Title)
MWP: 103

What do we make of the Beau Brummels, our first female owned team in ATB history. One one hand they are five time 90+ win team, capping off at 104 wins in Sim 2. On the other, they also failed to reach .500 five times, the worst of which was in Sim 4 when they were outscored by 115 runs en route to a 68-94 season.

They finish ranked 10th in large part due to their 8 playoff births but I am not certain I wouldn't rather owning Duke Street, a similar team in terms of win potential but more consistent across the board.

Rochester is the first squad to surpass 100 wins in any of the 20 re-sims.

9th - Rusty Kuntz Travelling All Stars (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Shotgun Spratling
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/86
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 97/77

Avg RD: +47
Playoffs: 11 (4 Div Title)
MWP: 103

The Travelling All Stars are the most disappointing team of the season when considering the magnitude of their ATB failure. They won just 75 regular season games with a -16 Run Differential and were well out of any playoff contention. During their worst re-sim, they still managed 77 wins meaning ATB XI could be considered their 21st worst season out of all of them. Bad, bad luck.

What could have been? Across the 20 re-sims Rusty Kuntz owns 4 division titles and 7 more wild card births; they won 85+ games thirteen times; only three times did their RD sink below zero.

This was a good team that had an awful regular season.

It's been a while since I have had a chance to continue the Re-sim Power Alley writeups and thought I'd list the ranked teams we've reviewed to date:
  • Truly Awful (Average of 55 or less wins): Hey Howarya (24th), Downsouth Brews (23rd)
  • Awful (60-69 wins): Wedge Tornado (22nd)
  • Bad (70-78 wins): Bucky Dents Middle Name (21st), Cincinnati Redlegs (20th), I Miss Rod Beck (19th), Warning Track Power (18th)
  • About .500 (79-83 wins): Potomac Rage (17th), Willets Point Mechanics (16th), Old Pete's Rabble (15th), Edinburgh Caber Tossers (14th), Chi-Town Black Sox (13th), Otherton Fish Biscuits (12th), Duke Street Kings (11th)

Thursday, September 3, 2009

All Time ATB Managerial Records

I struggle with all time owner rankings because I can't tell where the divide should be. I feel strongly that owners who have played for years should be ranked higher than some of those with just a few seasons, but how best to do that?

Best case to illustrate. TJO has played 11 seasons with an 861-917 record (.484 Wpct). Should he be ranked better that Steve C who has a .620 win percentage in two seasons? You got me.

I made the cut-off for major penalty at 2 or less seasons. Each teams rank takes into consideration:
  • Career Winning Percentage
  • Season High Winning Percentage
  • Playoff Appearances
  • World Series Titles
  • Minor penalty for under 4 or 6 seasons played (out of 11)
  • Moderate penalty for 3 seasons played
  • Major penalty for 2 seasons played
  • Critical Penalty for 1 season played (no one time can be ranked higher than anyone with more than 1 season under their belt)
Hope it is fair. Top 10 below, complete list with records here.

1) 642 Pts - Lou Poulas
2) 637 Pts - Justin Petronzi
3) 627 Pts - Mike Smitko
4) 572 Pts - Sean Seeley
5) 567 Pts - Brad Peterson
6) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski
7) 528 Pts - TJ Olszewski
8) 524 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter
9) 518 Pts - Steve Chippendale
10) 513 Pts - Jason Bernarndon
11) 502 Pts - Jeff Burns
12) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas
13) 473 Pts - Jay Seeley
14) 460 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein
15) 422 Pts - Joe Terry
16) 421 Pts - Kevin Crowley
17) 417 Pts - Ivar Anderson
18) 415 Pts - Michael Rippe
19) 380 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh
20) 380 Pts - Matt Brody

Game 7 Recap

Don't mind the grammer......

The Fans have voted and Game 7 of the ATB XI World Series was indeed the greatest game in our league’s history.

Drama? Helena, the beloved underdog, trying to win their first every World Championship.
More Drama? Bellevue came back from a 3-0 series deficit in the LCS, and was now trying to come back from a 3-1 deficit.
Did I Say Drama? Dude, it’s Game 7!
Clutch Hitting? Uh, there were:

- 7 lead changes or new ties
- Not one, not two, but three game changing home runs in the 8th inning or later
- SIXTEEN runs scored after the 8th inning
- 38 total hits.

What about the pitchers you say? Shut-out innings from the Top 2nd through Top of the 8th, all with the game in the balance 3-2. For the heck of it, let’s add on incredible double plays and a bases loaded no-out situation where nobody scored. Baseball heaven.

Plus, we broadcast live making the anticipation all but unbearable.

It is not possible to write this up properly, so I must stick to the highlights (and low-lights).

1st Inning (3-1 Helena)
- Aaron hits a one out 3-run bomb to open the scoring
- A 2-out rally plates one for Bellevue. Key blows are a Sam Thompson double and a run scoring Tommy Holmes scoring single

2nd Inning (3-2 Helena)
- 2 strikeouts against Helena in Top of innings
- Another Bellevue 2-out rally. HBP for Scott Rolen after running the count 3-0, followed by two singles from Hughie Jennings and Nap Lajoie. 1 run scores, and after a walk, Bellevue left the bases loaded.

3rd Inning (3-2 Helena)
- BFF starter Allan Anderson yanked after walking Freddie Lindstrom to open the frame. Three easy outs recorded by Rob Murphy in relief. Murphy was key, giving up no runs and only yielding to another member of the BFF pen to start the 6th .
- HBP for the Franchise, but no threat.

4th inning (3-2 Helena)
- Helena gets runners at first and second with no-outs only two squander the opportunity with a strikeout and Pete Resier ground-out double play.
- Franchise almost duplicates the feat, by getting runners on 1st and 2nd with 1-out, but Sam Thompson grounds into a double play of his own.

5th Inning (3-2 Helena)
- Stan Musial triples with 2-outs but Albert Pujols couldn’t come through, weakly grounding out to short.
- Tommy Holmes singles with 1-out, steals second, but Helena starter Derek Lowe buckles down and retires the side.

6th Inning (3-2 Helena)
- Steve Reed now in for BFF, but only gives up a 1-out walk to Magglio Ordonez
- Terrible, terrible inning for BFF. Derek Lee singles to start the innings, Rolen follows with another, and famous Hughie Jennings gets plunked. Bases loaded no-outs, in the middle innings of Game 7. You gotta score right? Nope. Nap Lajoie flies out to right, but Lee wont’ run on Aaron’s arm and then Sam Thompson grounds into ANOTHER inning ending double play with runners in scoring position.

7th Inning (3-2 Helena)
- Can you feel the Helena faithful praying for an insurance run? Bellevue has put runners all over the place all evening, but to little avail. Arthur Rhodes comes in for Reed and gives up a 2-out single to Freddie Lindstrom but nothing else.
- Does Bellevue have any life in them after the horrid 6th? Nope – a 2-out single by Campy is all they get.

Top of 8th inning (4-2 Helena)
- The insurance run! Pujols leads off with a single; Hank Aaron gets on thanks to a fielding error by Rhodes. Another killer double play shuts down the chance at a big inning, but Ordonez at least gets Pujols to 3rd with 2-outs. Cal Ripken comes through in the clutch with a single to right to make the score 4-2.

Bottom of the 8th (6-4 Bellevue)
- How Helena ever came back from this is beyond me. Derrek Lee singled and 1-out later, Pujols boots a ball putting runners on 1st and second. Lajoie follows with a seeing eye single up the middle, but Lee can’t score and the bases are loaded with 1-out. Joel Hoerner comes in to pitch and gives up a Sac Fly to Sam Thompson, making the score 4-3.
- With 2-outs the game is still in hand, but Oscar Charleston drills a 1-0 fastball over the right field fence. 3-runs score, 6-4 Bellevue.

Top of the 9th (8-6 Helena)
- Somehow, someway, Helena comes back. Against the BFF closer Armando Benitez no less.
- Pete Reiser walked followed by a Frank Robinson single. Earl Averill pinch hits for Freddie Lindstrom and singles to left, loading the bases.
- Stan Musial plasters a ball to deep right, a Top o’ the ninth game changing grand slam.
- Brandon Webb comes in relief and retires the side in order.

Bottom of the 9th (8-8 tie)
- They won’t go away!
- Against the feared Robb Nen, Campy reaches on a single to lead off the inning.
- Nen follows up with 2-strikeouts. Bottom of the 9th, 2-out, best pitcher on the mound with a 2-run lead.
- Lofton singles. Johnny Mize comes off the bench and triples, plating 2 and tying the game.

10th Inning (8-8 tie)
- One walk between both teams, nothing else but outs.

Top of 11th inning (10-8 Helena)
- Baker double, Musial 4 pitch walk, and a Pujols single load the bases with no outs.
- Uh oh
- Hank Aaron strikes again, this time a 2-run single to center.
- Ordonez grounds into another double play for the 1st and 2nd outs, leaving Pujols at third.
- Gil McDougald walks but Johnny Bassler grounds out to third to end the inning.

Bottom of the 11th (10-10 tie)
- Yet another comeback. At this point, it is almost expected it is so absurd
- Campy singles and 1-out later Lee homers down the right field line on 3-1 fastball.

Top of the 12th (10-10 tie)
- Reiser battles in an 8 pitch at bat but grounds out. Robinson and Baker follow suit with ground outs of their own.

Bottom of the 12th (11-10 Bellevue Win)
- Lajoie lines an opening single, but gets caught stealing!
- No matter, Sam Thompson singles. O-Charles singles. Bedrosian enters in relieve but walks the bases loaded.
- Roy Campanella comes to the plate with 3 hits in 6 at bats and delivers. A squeaker between first and second and Bellevue Wins!

Amazing stuff.
398 pitches
38 hits
29 batters
25 left on base
21 runs
18 pitchers
11 strike outs
5 double plays
3 holds
3 blown saves (!)

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The Greatest Game Ever Played?

Writeup tomorrow, just the box score tonight. Joe T of Helena watched live - I can't ever recall a game like this. Check out the box score here.

The 20 Faces of Pedro Martinez

Chart only, interesting for sure

The 20 Faces of Babe Ruth

Bar none, Babe Ruth is the best player in ATB history. He is the undisputed 1st Round Pick of choice and year in and year out wins the MVP - well, almost. There have been a few non-Ruth MVP's, especially prior to the two league format. Point being, he's the consensus best player out there.

You can still be burned by him though. Here's his best and worst for a few statistics in the 20 sims.

Now, the chart is unfair as it portrays there is an equal chance of 36 HR or 66 HR, and that just isn't the case. Still, it is worth noting that down years happen to the best of them.

Here are those same stats for every season:

Please note, these are not stat lines. Each column is sorted individually from worst to best.

Game 7 Live Tonight!

10:30 PM Eastern! Post here or send email to alltimebaseball@yahoo.com if interested in watching.

Re-Sim All Stars - Harry Cary Pitching Staff

Sp 1) Greg Maddux - P10 (Yr15)
Sp 2) Lady Baldwin* - JuP (Yr4)
Sp 3) Al Orth - JuP (Yr10)
Sp 4) Babe Adams - WPP (Yr10)
Sp 5) Garland Braxton* - OPR (Yr5)

LR) Nolan Ryan - OPR (Yr2)
Se R) Joe Neale - WPP (Yr11)
Se L) Rob Murphy* - BFF (Yr8)
Cl 1) Jonathan Papelbon - CR (Yr3)
Cl 2) Dennis Eckersley - WPM (Yr11)

Single Season Leaders
W: .- 26, Greg Maddux Yr 13, P10

ERA - 1.70, Greg Maddux Yr 15, P10
QS: - 31,
Greg Maddux Yr 7, P10
Wpct: 22-2, Lady Baldwin Yr 13, Jup

CG: - 22,
Lady Baldwin Yr 3, Jup
ShO:- 9, Lady Baldwin Yr 3, Jup
ShO:- 9, Greg Maddux Yr 2, P10
SO: - 314, Lady Baldwin Yr 11, Jup
RCERA-1.80, Greg Maddux Yr 15, P10
Greg Maddux Yr 15, P10

Re-Sim All Stars - Vin Scully Pitching Staff

Sp 1) Pedro Martinez - WTP (Yr17)
Sp 2) Lefty Grove* - OFB (Yr7)
Sp 3) Walter Johnson - CBS (Yr16)
Sp 4) Bill Bernhard - WMB (Yr12)
Sp 5) Tex Hughson - OFB (Yr17)

LR) Jeff Zimmerman - DCC (Yr5)
Se R) Bryan Harvey - WMB (Yr7)
Se L) Frank Killen* - OFB (Yr9)
Cl 1) Kent Tekulve - JMF (Yr4)
Cl 2) Cla Meredith - WMB (Yr3)

Single Season Leaders
W: .- 25, Lefty Grove Yr 7, OFB

ERA - 1.82, Pedro Martinez Yr 17, WTP
QS: - 34, Lefty Grove Yr 15, OFB

Wpct: 21-3, Pedro Martinez, Yr 4, WTP

CG: - 17, Bill Bernhard Yr 11, WMB

ShO:- 9, Pedro Martinez Yr 16, WTP
SO: - 289, Pedro Martinez Yr, 19, WTP

RCERA-1.84, Pedro Martinez Yr 17, WTP

WHIP:-0.85, Pedro Martinez Yr 17, WTP

Post Season Awards - MVP

Vin Scully
In a no-brainer, Babe Ruth handily wins the Vin Scully MVP while Barry Bonds takes an easy second. Both were the best offensive talents in the league and by a wide margin. While Bonds is a better player than all others save Ruth, he didn't sweep the second place votes mainly because his team didn't challenge for a playoff spot. Dick Allen and Tris Speaker for instance were playing meaningful games (gotta love that phrase Omar!) the last week of the season and the voters found it important.

Still, one has to wonder why Allen received a first place vote. Ruth was the far superior player in every single major offensive statistic and Allen was one of three standouts in the John McDonald lineup. Hard to make a case he was the Most Valuable Player in the entire league.

Harry Caray
Ted Williams narrowly carries the vote in the HC. Personally, I don't agree with this but can't really argue with the results too much. Williams is definitely the best player in the league but I have a difficult time convincing myself he was more valuable the Tip O'Neill. Take a look at these statistics, O'neil bests Williams in:

RC: 159 to 117
RB: 390 to 255
H: 260 to 150
2B: 51 to 15
3B: 30 to 0
R: 124 to 89
SB: 41 to 0

Plus he had similar RBI totals, just "losing" 95 to 90. The cause for the difference? Playing time - Williams missed approximately 6 weeks of the season which must be considered.

Mickey Mantle was the clear 3rd place choice with Jeff Bagwell and Lou Gehrig garnering minimal interest.

Resim Power Alley: 16th through 13th

16th - Willets Point Mechanics (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: Matt Brody
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 72/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/67

Avg RD: -8
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 98

With 72 regular season wins, these re-sims must be bittersweet for owner Matt Brody. In ATB XI the Mechanics sported a -97 run differential, a figure the team sunk to only once in all of the 20 re-sims. In short, ATB XI was about as unlucky of a season Willets Point could have suffered through. They underperformed in Win total (-11%), Runs Scored (-8%), and Runs Against (-4%).

There true level of talent is almost exactly a .500 team - 81 wins a minus-8 run differential.

15th - Old Pete's Rabble (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: PC, Grrrr
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/82
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 92/72

Avg RD: 0
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 99

Here's the computer team that finished above .500 in 11 of the re-sims. Their early round picks were deferred to later in the draft as we searched for an owner too - what might have been.

14th - Edinburgh Caber Tossers (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: TJ Olszewski
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 85/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/72

Avg RD: -20
Playoffs: 4
MWP: 99

We've gone through 9 teams and now encounter our first team that outperformed it's 20-resim average. I really don't know why that is, but there has to be something too it - nine in a row is too much for coincidence. Why would all the lower ranked teams play even worse in the regular season than the re-sims?

TJ led his squad to 85 wins and at the end of August actually had the wild card lead before trailing off quickly, ultimately losing the last WC slot to Planet 10. This was a clear over achievement that normally this can be attributed to a hands on computer manager, but in this case TJ had limited time and made few lineup adjustments.

In terms of Run Differential, the team outperformed the re-sim average by 70 runs, third highest of any team. Overall during the re-sims, Edinbrugh averaged an RD of -20. They fair well in the rankings, at least when compared with the bottom ranked teams, because their upside was fairly high - they won 87 or more games six times, made the playoffs 4 times, and had a solid max win potential of 99.

13th - Chi Town Black Sox (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owners: Mike Thannasides, Zach Bernstein
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 80/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 92/70

Avg RD: +6
Playoffs: 3 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 97

What immediately comes to mind with Chi-Town is figuring out an explanation as to why their pitching staff let up 57 fewer runs in the regular season. Their total Runs Against of 680 is easily better then each of the RA values in the re-sims, with just season six approaching, but not close to equalling, that level of success. Likely just another reason that 20 sims truly isn't enough to be completely accurate on team skill.

The first division winner we've come across, with an 86-76 record in season 18 the Black Sox took advantage of an across the board down season in "It Gets by Buckner" to narrowly edge Helena by 2 games. Their best record came the re-sim prior, but even with 92 wins fell short of the division lead by 4 games though they did secure a playoff birth via the wild card.

Chi-Town finished with a positive RD and 80 ore more wins 12 of 20 times. Their max win potential of 97 is a bit on short side considering the 92 win season under their belt, but the combination of a division title, and overall net positive RD boosted their score.