Thursday, December 22, 2011

The Impact Of Draft Order

The Random Number Generator (of Death, mwahahaha!) can be an owner’s best friend or worst nightmare come draft day.  With a Top-2 pick you’re guaranteed a superstar in the form of Babe Ruth or Pedro Martinez, and with a 3-4 pick you have an elite list of players to pick from, be it Lady Baldwin for your staff or someone like Mickey Mantle to anchor a lineup and defense simultaneously.

But where is the trade off?  Is it better to have an 8th pick and land a player like Rogers Hornsby, but then have to wait 22 rounds for a Dan Brouthers or Randy Johnson; or pick last and pick up a Ty Cobb and John McGraw back to back at the turn?

I ran some numbers on the past 5 drafts – the only in which we haven’t used any PC teams – and the results while not necessarily groundbreaking, can lead is to some potentially vital conclusions.

In general terms it makes little difference if you pick in the first or second half of the draft.  Owners picking earlier in the first half have a cumulative .505 winning percentage and those picking in the latter have average a .495 winning percentage.  Over 162 games, that works out to be a 2.4 game difference, appreciable for certain, but in the grand scheme of things the difference between an 88 and 90 win team is very small.

Note: I hit a bit of a snag in how best to compile the data.  We have 16 round draft days as well as 24 round drafts, and the difference in 8 rounds is crucial.  To mitigate these differences I decided to normalize the rounds by separating each draft into buckets of 10% increments, and comparing the results by each increment.
 

Digging deeper into the results, a dangerous trend emerges.  Obviously with a Top 4 pick team success is all but assured, but as you approach the 7/8 picks, team success drops off the table before rising and eventually leveling off.  This implies one should wish for a Top 4 pick, perhaps Top 5, but then anything else in the Top-10 is a hindrance and not a benefit. 

We’ll come back to this point in a moment but first need to spend some time dissecting that 11-12 selection.  With a .549 winning percentage sandwiched between a .479 and .484, this slot sticks out like a sore thumb.  On one hand, the small sample size of just five drafts in the study needs to be considered since one or two abnormal teams can really skew the results.  Similarly, it’s important to note that five historically great owners (Jason B, Justin P, Lou P, Mike S, Steve C) have just happened to have picked in this slot.  Is the cumulative .549 winning percentage a result of the slot or of the general ability of the owners?

On first glance I assumed it was the owner base, but even if you take out the five, the balance of the teams have averaged a .528 winning percentage, considerably better than all but two other slots. 

We can draw a simple conclusion:  This spot is the best place to capitalize on another’s mistake:
  • Last year Tip O’Neill and Greg Maddux were nabbed here?  Why?  Two other owners stumbled early and took Jimmy Foxx and Hugh Duffy ahead of them.
  • In ATB XII again it was Tip O’Neill this time by Steve C, only available because Jimmy Foxx was again selected too early.  The Chips ended with a .617 Wpct.
  • ATB XI was infamous, as Ted Williams was passed on for Hugh Duffy, Roger Connor, Randy Johnson, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, and Fred Dunlap among others.  Justin happily grabbed him and won 96 games.
  • In ATB X Jason B selected Honus Wagner, only available because someone else thought Addie Joss was a Top 10 pick.  Jason’s Fanclub won 95 games.
  • Finally, in ATB IX yours truly ended up with Ted Williams by way of a too early Mark McGwire pick, my Red Eagles won 104 games.
Year in and year out owners make mistakes early in the draft.  If you happen to land a draft pick immediately after these one or two gaffes, you can easily end up with Top 5 value while not having to wait so long for the Round 2 pick to come back.

Getting back to the original point of poor winning percentages immediately after pick 5.  I believe this is occurring not because the talent after pick 5 is so bad; rather, the talent is not so obvious.  Everyone knows what do with the Top 5 picks in the draft but once the superstars are off the board, owners are forced to think and mistakes can happen.

I am generalizing here, but my conclusions:
  • A Top 4 or 5 pick is still the best place to draft, especially Top 2
  • The rest of the draft is relatively equal – if you make a good pick
  • However, the easiest place to make a mistake in the 1st round between choices 5-10, and making one here can kill a team.  
  • Conversely, the best place to capitalize on an owner's mistake are the handful of selections immediately after.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Pitchers with Clutch Bonus

If you recall, Hall of Famer's now get a 'clutch' boost.  Below is a list of current ATB pitchers who now receive the bonus.  If time permits, I will run a study to see how much effect this has on a player.

This is the last hope for 3-Finger.


Alexander,Pete-1915
Bender,Chief-1910
Brown,Mordecai-1906
Brown,Mordecai-1908
Brown,Mordecai-1909
Bunning,Jim-1966
Carlton,Steve-1972
Carlton,Steve-1980
Chesbro,Jack-1902
Chesbro,Jack-1904
Clarkson,John-1885
Coveleski,Stan-1917
Coveleski,Stan-1920
Dean,Dizzy-1933
Dean,Dizzy-1934
Dean,Dizzy-1938
Drysdale,Don-1957
Drysdale,Don-1960
Drysdale,Don-1964
Eckersley,Dennis-1990
Faber,Red-1921
Feller,Bob-1940
Feller,Bob-1946
Fingers,Rollie-1981
Ford,Whitey-1958
Ford,Whitey-1961
Ford,Whitey-1964
Galvin,Pud-1875
Galvin,Pud-1884
Gibson,Bob-1968
Gomez,Lefty-1931
Gomez,Lefty-1934
Gomez,Lefty-1937
Gossage,Rich-1977
Gossage,Rich-1980
Gossage,Rich-1981
Gossage,Rich-1982
Griffith,Clark-1898
Griffith,Clark-1901
Grove,Lefty-1930
Grove,Lefty-1931
Hubbell,Carl-1933
Hubbell,Carl-1936
Hunter,Catfish-1972
Hunter,Catfish-1974
Hunter,Catfish-1975
Jenkins,Fergie-1970
Jenkins,Fergie-1971
Johnson,Walter-1912
Johnson,Walter-1913
Joss,Addie-1904
Joss,Addie-1908
Keefe,Tim-1883
Keefe,Tim-1888
Koufax,Sandy-1963
Koufax,Sandy-1965
Koufax,Sandy-1966
Lemon,Bob-1954
Lyons,Ted-1939
Marichal,Juan-1965
Marichal,Juan-1966
Marquard,Rube-1916
Mathewson,Christy-1905
Mathewson,Christy-1908
Mathewson,Christy-1909
McGinnity,Joe-1904
Newhouser,Hal-1945
Newhouser,Hal-1946
Nichols,Kid-1898
Niekro,Phil-1967
Niekro,Phil-1974
Palmer,Jim-1972
Palmer,Jim-1975
Perry,Gaylord-1972
Perry,Gaylord-1974
Plank,Eddie-1915
Radbourn,Charley-1883
Radbourn,Charley-1884
Rixey,Eppa-1915
Rixey,Eppa-1924
Roberts,Robin-1952
Roberts,Robin-1953
Roberts,Robin-1954
Rusie,Amos-1894
Rusie,Amos-1897
Ryan,Nolan-1981
Ryan,Nolan-1987
Ryan,Nolan-1991
Seaver,Tom-1969
Seaver,Tom-1970
Seaver,Tom-1971
Spahn,Warren-1953
Sutter,Bruce-1977
Sutton,Don-1972
Vance,Dazzy-1924
Vance,Dazzy-1925
Vance,Dazzy-1930
Waddell,Rube-1900
Waddell,Rube-1902
Waddell,Rube-1904
Waddell,Rube-1905
Walsh,Ed-1908
Walsh,Ed-1909
Walsh,Ed-1910
Welch,Mickey-1885
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1959
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1965
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1967
Willis,Vic-1899
Wynn,Early-1950
Young,Cy-1892
Young,Cy-1895
Young,Cy-1901
Young,Cy-1903
Young,Cy-1905
Young,Cy-1908

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Iron Man: Changes to Current Pitchers

Meant to include this in the previous post.  Here are the current pitchers in the DMB Database that will become Iron Men, some big names on this list:


Alexander,Pete-1915
Antonelli,Johnny-1954
Avery,Steve-1993
Barrett,Red-1945
Blue,Vida-1971
Blue,Vida-1975
Blyleven,Bert-1973
Bradley,George-1876
Bunning,Jim-1966
Carlton,Steve-1972
Carlton,Steve-1980
Chesbro,Jack-1904
Clarkson,John-1885
Clemens,Roger-1997
Coombs,Jack-1910
Cooper,Mort-1942
Cooper,Wilbur-1920
Corcoran,Larry-1880
Coveleski,Stan-1917
Coveleski,Stan-1920
Cuellar,Mike-1969
Daily,Hugh-1884
Davenport,Dave-1915
Dean,Dizzy-1933
Devlin,Jim-1876
Donohue,Pete-1925
Drysdale,Don-1964
Drysdale,Don-1960
Faber,Red-1921
Falkenberg,Cy-1914
Feller,Bob-1940
Feller,Bob-1946
Fernandez,Alex-1996
Ford,Whitey-1961
Galvin,Pud-1884
Gomez,Lefty-1937
Gooden,Dwight-1985
Griffith,Clark-1898
Gubicza,Mark-1988
Halladay,Roy-2002
Halladay,Roy-2003
Hecker,Guy-1884
Hendrix,Claude-1914
Hentgen,Pat-1996
Hentgen,Pat-1997
Hernandez,Felix-2009
Hernandez,Felix-2010
Hubbell,Carl-1936
Hudson,Tim-2003
Hughson,Tex-1946
Hunter,Catfish-1974
Hunter,Catfish-1975
Hutchison,Bill-1890
Jackson,Danny-1988
Jenkins,Fergie-1971
Jenkins,Fergie-1970
Johnson,Randy-2004
Johnson,Randy-1999
Johnson,Walter-1912
Johnson,Walter-1913
Kaat,Jim-1966
Keefe,Tim-1883
Key,Jimmy-1987
Kilroy,Matt-1887
King,Silver-1888
Koufax,Sandy-1963
Koufax,Sandy-1965
Koufax,Sandy-1966
Lee,Bill-1938
Loaiza,Esteban-2003
Lolich,Mickey-1971
Lonborg,Jim-1967
Luque,Dolf-1923
Mathewson,Christy-1905
Mathewson,Christy-1908
McCormick,Jim-1880
McCormick,Jim-1884
McGinnity,Joe-1904
McLain,Denny-1968
McQuillan,George-1908
Morris,Ed-1885
Morris,Jack-1986
Mungo,Van-1936
Mussina,Mike-2001
Newcombe,Don-1956
Newhouser,Hal-1946
Newhouser,Hal-1945
Newsom,Bobo-1940
Nichols,Kid-1898
Niekro,Phil-1974
Oswalt,Roy-2002
Owen,Frank-1905
Paige,Satchel-1931
Palmer,Jim-1975
Peavy,Jake-2007
Perry,Gaylord-1972
Pettitte,Andy-2007
Radbourn,Charley-1884
Radbourn,Charley-1883
Ramsey,Toad-1886
Reynolds,Shane-1996
Richard,J.R.-1979
Rijo,Jose-1993
Roberts,Robin-1952
Roberts,Robin-1954
Roberts,Robin-1953
Rogan,Bullet Joe-1916
Rogers,Steve-1982
Rusie,Amos-1897
Rusie,Amos-1894
Sabathia,C.C.-2008
Saberhagen,Bret-1989
Sain,Johnny-1946
Sain,Johnny-1948
Santana,Johan-2004
Schilling,Curt-2001
Schilling,Curt-2002
Schilling,Curt-1997
Scott,Mike-1986
Shaw,Dupee-1884
Sheets,Ben-2004
Smoltz,John-1996
Sparks,Tully-1906
Stieb,Dave-1985
Trout,Dizzy-1944
Tudor,John-1985
Vance,Dazzy-1924
Vaughn,Hippo-1919
Vazquez,Javier-2003
Viola,Frank-1987
Viola,Frank-1988
Waddell,Rube-1904
Walsh,Ed-1908
Walsh,Ed-1910
Walters,Bucky-1939
Webb,Brandon-2007
Weimer,Jake-1904
Whitney,Jim-1881
Willis,Vic-1899
Wood,Joe-1912
Wood,Wilbur-1971
Wyatt,Whit-1941
Young,Cy-1901
Zito,Barry-2002

Pitcher Iron Men Rules Update

The qualification for Pitcher Iron Men has been updated.  7% was just too few to make a difference; the era's were adjusted so that about 15% of the starting pitchers are now iron men.

Rules (below) are convoluded but remember, the pitcher file in excel will just simply list if the player is an Iron Man or not.  You really only need these rules if you plan on doing your own calculations.

1994-current:  34+ Starts
1988-1993:  35+ Starts
1961-1980:  38+ Starts
1924-1960:  34+ Starts
1909-1923:  36+ Starts
1897-1908:  37+ Starts
1893-1896:  50+ Starts
1874-1892:  58+ Starts
1871-1873:  55+ Starts

The above gives each one of these era's somewhere around 15% eligibility.