Thursday, November 27, 2014

Confirmed Owners and DH/No DH Preferences

Please start to send in your preferences for DH or no DH.  I'll update this list as things change

22 Confirmed Owners

DH Preference
Justin P
Justin Bo
Mike S
Lou P
Gary G
Matt B

No DH Preference
Brian B
Greg M
Mike M
Stephen L
Joe V
Sean S
Jason B
Ivar A
Will G

OK With Either Option
David K
Joe T
Allen C

Preference Not Yet Stated
Brad P
Al H
Leanne S

Played Last Year, Awaiting Decision for This Year

Shotgun S
Jay H

Played Last Year, But Not Available This Year
Jeff B
Steve C

Welcome Will G!

The funds funneled into the Helena recruiting  program has paid off.  Welcome Will G, friend of Joe T!

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Welcome Stephen Lee

We have our first new owner of the season.  Please welcome Stephen Lee from the DMB forums.

Welcome Stephen!

Friday, November 21, 2014

He Who Has Jarvis Will Succeed

Earlier today Ivar A made a comment to the effect "he promises not to draft Larry Walker" and this struck a chord with me.  For years during draft week, just about everyone knew Ivar wanted Walker and Allen C can't live without Jimmie Foxx.  Sure, it's a fun joke but how true is it?  And are there others even more dedicated to a certain player or two.

Yes and Yes.

Ivar has been an owner for 8 seasons and has drafted Walker in five of them.  Allen has been an owner for 6 seasons and has drafted Jimmie Foxx in half of them.  We might as well call Allen a Beene lover too though, he's gone with Fred Beene just as often.

Those are very high draft rates but hardly remarkable for our league.

  • Of the 21 current owners who have participated in at least two seasons, only 3 have failed to draft someone less than half of their seasons.
  • In fact, the average owner drafts one of his favorites 62% of the time.

Here are some of the extremes.

  • Brad has a man crush on Cal Ripken, going with the shortstop 6 times
  • Brian drafted Jose Canseco and Ray Dandridge 4 of 7 times.
  • Gary G has played in three seasons, and in all three has ended with Jay Johnstone, Shane Victorino, Jim Konstanty, and Pet Rose
  • Jason B likes Joey Belle - 4 of 7 times
  • Jay H goes Charles Johnson and Phil Regan 60% of the time
  • Joe T and Gil McDougald where made for each other, with the infielder going 71% of the time to Helena
  • Matt B has selected HoJo 4 of 7 years
  • Going back to Tony Larussa days, Sean S has always liked Joel Horlen, and in modern ATB history has gone with the pitcher 5 of 8 times.
  • Shotgun enjoys the company of JJ PUtz (4 of 6 years)
  • Steve C prefers consistency at backstop, drafting Deacon White 4 of 7 years.
  • Even the newer owners are getting in on the action.  Three time owners Dave K and Joe V have drafted 16 players between them twice, and two time owners Greg M and Mike M have drafted 5 players in both their seasons.
  • The most loyal though is Justin P.  Of all the darn relievers in the game, he has ended up with Pat Jarvis an incredible 8 of 11 times.  Justin is currently ranked as the best owner in ATB history, and therefore it stands to reason he who has Jarvis will succeed.  Thus, it is my personal mission to draft Jarvis early in round 2

The four owners who like a little variety?

  • Jeff B has never drafted anyone more than 4 times in 9 years (Dolf Luque)
  • Mike M never more than 5 of 11 (Jeff Gray and Kevin Millwood)
  • TJ O never more than 5 of 11 (Charlie Keller)
  • Lou P never more than 4 in 11 (Stan Musial)

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Quote from Earl Weaver

Fits in nicely for the current sports season....

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock.  You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance.  That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.  ~Earl Weaver

Top All Time Rotations

Last week looked at the best lineup in ATB history, and so now, naturally, we need to take a look at the best rotation.  Using the same methodology but replacing ATB Value Runs with the RSAA statistic, we find that the ATB 12 John McDonald Fanclub rotation was the best ever in ATB.  Just like the DC Chips, this team had the best no matter how we slice the data.  Their total RSAA scores were tops when analyzing the best two starters on a team, the best three, and the best four.

Three other teams are realistically "in the conversation".  The top 2, 3, and 4 starters scores are in parenthesis.

ATB 9 Dyersville Black Sox (-80.3, -113.1, -129.1)
-47.1: 2004 Randy Johnson .(2.63 ERA, 233 IP, 2.38 RCERA)
-33.2: 1962 Hank Aguirre ..(3.11 ERA, 237 IP, 2.94 RCERA)
-24.7: 2003 Jason Schmidt .(3.22 ERA, 204 IP, 3.11 RCERA)
-22.7: 2002 Curt Schilling (3.10 ERA, 235 IP, 3.33 RCERA)

ATB 12 Dumais Wells Oath Binders (-78.7, -107.5, -100.7)
-45.7: 1919 Babe Adams ....(2.76 ERA, 235 IP, 2.41 RCERA)
-33.0: 1948 Harry Brecheen (2.04 ERA, 198 IP, 2.66 RCERA)
-28.8: 1904 Noodles Hahn ..(3.03 ERA, 214 IP, 2.95 RCERA)
  6.8: 1902 Rube Waddell ..(3.90 ERA, 122 IP, 4.66 RCERA)

ATB 15 Otherton Fishbiscuits (-83.3, -113.1, -129.1)
-49.2: 2000 Pedro Martinez (2.61 ERA, 297 IP, 2.54 RCERA)
-34.1: 1902 Bill Bernhard .(3.29 ERA, 287 IP, 2.96 RCERA)
-29.8: 1966 Juan Marichal .(3.54 ERA, 285 IP, 3.09 RCERA)
-16.0: 1993 Danny Darwin ..(3.73 ERA, 195 IP, 3.29 RCERA)

And our winners:

ATB 12 John McDonald Fanclub (-90.1, -129.7, -169.0)
-48.4: 1946 Tex Hughson ....(2.67 ERA, 256 IP, 2.46 RCERA)
-41.7: 1942 Mort Cooper ....(2.34 ERA, 177 IP, 2.04 RCERA)
-39.6: 1884 George Bradley .(2.53 ERA, 224 IP, 2.57 RCERA)
-39.3: 2000 Pedro Martinez .(2.70 ERA, 213 IP, 2.50 RCERA)

That is quite remarkable.  No other team has approached 3 starters with RSAA marks around 40, and this team has four.  Unfortunately for the Fanclub their offense was quite bad this year, finishing 19th in runs scored resulting in an 88 win season, a full 16 games off the pace in their division.

One thing that irks me with RSAA is the potential to rely too heavily on innings pitched.  The four teams with the lowest runs against in league history don't make the top 4.  It is possible that their bullpens played a large role, but it is also possible that RSAA isn't the best measure.

Let's look at the two of those teams, the ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters and Dosequis Interesting Men, both of which only allowed 540 runs all year.

ATB 16 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters (-40.7, -53.5, -60.3)
-21.7: 1987 Jimmy Key ......(3.06 ERA, 205 IP, 2.70 RCERA)
-19.0: 1928 Garland Braxton (2.49 ERA, 184 IP, 2.72 RCERA)
-12.8: 1901 Al Orth ........(3.66 ERA, 213 IP, 3.11 RCERA)
 -6.9: 1988 Teddy Higuera ..(3.45 ERA, 187 IP, 3.32 RCERA)

ATB 16 Dosequis Interesting Men (-48.3, -57.9, -66.7)
-37.1: 1902 Jesse Tannehill.(2.66 ERA, 244 IP, 2.28 RCERA)
-11.1: 1908 3-Finger Brown (3.20 ERA, 233 IP, 3.22 RCERA)
 -9.7: 1946 Hal Newhouser .(2.65 ERA, 193 IP, 3.20 RCERA)
 -8.7: 1957 Johnny Podres .(3.33 ERA, 224 IP, 3.30 RCERA)

It's plain to see - the Fanclub's rotation holds up here as well.  Congrats JMF!

Thursday, November 13, 2014

My Kind of Lineup - the ATB 10 DC Chips

The ATB 17 (!) season is quickly approaching and I have been racking my brain trying to find a way back into the swing of things with an article or two.  I originally hoped to focus on offensive  prowess by identifying the the best infield and outfields in our history, but this quickly became an insurmountable task due to the way DMB stores data.

Fielding data is not readily reportable and as a result, most of the time I can only report on real-life positions.  If someone decides to play Ducky Medwick at 1st base instead of left field, I am generally blind to it.  To pick the best outfield, I would have to comb through every team throughout our history and manually identify the most common lineups.  Maybe one day, but not today.

Instead I thought I would focus on the best 1-2, or 1-2-3 combinations that owners have been able to field.  To save time, I chose ATB Value Runs as the primary indicator of success.  As a result, this study turned out to be more about well rounded players than solely offensive success.

And hence the title, "My Kind of Lineup".  You see, ATB Value Runs is really just a made up stat. Sure, there are legit calculations behind it - Weighted On Base, Defensive Studies, and park factors are the three most critical - but ultimately it comes down to judgement on how to bring each individual metric into one tidy number.

That judgement of course, was solely mine.  Looking at ATB Value, I am really looking at how I personally value players and nothing more.

Which team has been the most "My Kind of Team" through the years on offense?  It turns out there is really no contest.  The ATB 10 DC Chips owned by Steve C have the single best ATB Value Runs scored of all time, plus the best two ATB Value Runs Scored, plus the best 3, all the way down to all nine slots in the lineup.

I love looking at these guys:
This team had everything. 
  • Power?  Three guys with 30+ home runs led by Barry Bonds.  This, in a park where the HR factor for the team was 53 and the division was 67
  • Speed?  How does 7 regulars that averaged 30 SB's between them sound.
  • Defense? 5 Ex rating defenders, a team error rate of 66, 2 Ex Armed Outfielders, and an Ex armed catcher. 
  • On Base?  Bonds had the highest OBP ever recorded and the team averaged .362.
Steve's DC Chips  of ATB 10 hold the record for the most wins and are one of only three teams to lead a league in Runs Scored and Runs Against.  Most telling of all I think, is what round these players are drafted in our current environment:
Rd 1 - Barry Bonds
Rd 1 - Larry Walker
Rd 1 - Oscar Charleston (though, this is the old OC)
Rd 2 - Eddie Collins
Rd 5 - Jesse Burkett
Rd 5 - Pop Lloyd
Rd 9 - Roy Campanella
Rd 9 - Todd Helton
Rd 10 - Howard Johnson
Nice job Steve.