Sunday, January 31, 2016

Sim 1A Partial Complete

A few owners couldn't get there lineups in.  We'll give them an extra day, and in the meantime, here is Day 1 (not Sim 1A, but just literal opening day) for those games where both owners have submitted a lineup.

Hopefully the owners will submit overnight and we'll catchup in the morning, and 2A will be run tomorrow night.

As always - all season data can be found under the League Results link to the right.

Week 1 Transactions


  • Spanish Harlem drops Mark Melancon, picks up Grant Balfour 2008
  • Port Hawkesberry drops Frank Chance, Bobby Veach, and picks up Carlos Pena 2007 and Juan Gonzalez 1993

Stadium Photos, LA Coliseum, and Will G's a First in ATB History

“Line drives, they are murder.” .... Willie Mays

Ballpark photos uploaded to the ballpark site.  My vote for best in the leauge is the LA Coliseum:



From SABR
With a seating capacity of over 90,000, the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum was the largest ballpark ever to regularly host major league games.  It was also one of the strangest. Games at the Coliseum could contain 250-foot home runs to left, 440-foot flyouts to right, and fielders staggering to pick up the ball in the park’s combination of single-decked seats, bright sunlight, and white-shirted fans (some of them movie and television stars). “It was weird, weird, weird playing in the Coliseum,” said Dodgers infielder Randy Jackson, summing up the feelings of many players.  But in the four seasons the Dodgers called the Coliseum home (1958-61), the stands were often packed, and the games were seldom dull.
Full article here.  All you need to know is this... lefty HR factor was 25, righty was 172.  Will G's projected lineup...

R - Tim Salmon
R - Dick Allen
R - Joe DiMaggio
R - Frank Thomas
R - Javy Lopez
R - Kevin Mitchell
R - Nomar Garciaparra
R - Eddie Stanky

In fact, in this ATB world of incredible left handed htting, Will has just one lefty batter on the squad, plus 2 switch hitters, all of which are projected to be role players off the bench.

I have to admit, I have never seen this before in the history of ATB - a full lineup of all right handed batters.  I didn't even realize he was attempting this until writing this article.  For postery, LA Coliseum's park factors:

Vs L - 101, 60, 115 , 25
Vs R -  91, 80, 108, 172

Hat tip to you Will G, and good luck my friend!


Saturday, January 30, 2016

Final Exhibition Standings - Full Season Likely to Start Tomorrow Night

Lineups are in very early.  If the trend continues we'll start the season tomorrow night with a full slate of games, and not using the "slow start" I mentioned over email.

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Pre-Season.htm

18 - 8: Jason B
18 - 10: Justin P
16 - 9: Justin B
16 - 10: John J
15 - 12: Thomas R
16 - 14: Tony P
15 - 13: Ivar A
16 - 15: Mike S
16 - 15: Brad P
13 - 12: Will G
13 - 12: Richard G
13 - 12: Joe V
13 - 13: Lou P
13 - 15: Mike M
12 - 14: David K
14 - 17: Allen C
11 - 14: Joel Q
12 - 16: Greg M
12 - 16: Gary G
12 - 16: Al H
11 - 15: TJ O
11 - 15: Brian B
13 - 19: Joe T
12 - 19: David I

Friday, January 29, 2016

Exhibition Standings

5 more today, 5 more tomorrow - then we are done

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Pre-Season.htm

14 -  6: Justin B
15 -  7: Jason B
15 -  9: Justin P
15 -  9: Ivar A
13 -  8: Richard G
13 -  9: John J
15 - 12: Brad P
14 - 12: Tony P
11 -  9: Joe V
12 - 10: Thomas R
14 - 13: Mike S
13 - 13: Allen C
10 - 10: Will G
11 - 12: Greg M
10 - 11: Joel Q
10 - 12: Lou P
11 - 13: Mike M
10 - 14: Gary G
 9 - 13: TJ O
 9 - 13: David K
 9 - 14: Al H
 9 - 17: David I
10 - 18: Joe T
 7 - 15: Brian B

Transactions Due Sunday 8PM

For anyone wanting to submit transactions for week 1 - they are due Sunday 8 PM.

Once week two starts, here is the weekly timeline

WEEKLY SCHEDULE
- 15 Days Simulated Per Week over the course of 12 Weeks
* Sunday - Lineups Due 8 PM+ 3 Days Run
* Monday - Thursday - 3 Days Run per night
* FA Requests for the next week are due Fridays, 5 AM.
* Waiver process will be run by me on Friday.
* By Friday midnight I will let owners know if they got the players in question
* Cycle starts again, lineups due Sunday, 8 PM

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Ron Santo = Oscar Charleston

It's generally recognized Oscar Charleston is the best player in ATB, the MVP of the game so to speak.  Do you know who is the runner up?  Ron Santo.

Santo and Charleston are the only two players to help drive their human owners to 4 championships.  Santo has been shut out of the show for a while, but brought home the title in ATB 8, 9, 10, and and 13 for four different owners.

Charleston's been a title winner in ATB 8, 10, 11, and 15 - incredibly, teammates with Santo for two of those seasons in ATB 8 (Lake Hopatcong, Lou P) and 10 (DC, Steve C).

Thirteen others have three titles to their name:

Campanella,Roy
Jackson,Mike
Jarvis,Pat
Kelly,King
Medwick,Joe
Mize,Johnny
Russell,Reb
Shaffer,Orator
Smith,Dave
Stratton,Monty
Suttles,Mules
Vaughan,Arky
Whitaker,Lou

Do you have any of these players?  If not, better start trading.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Exhibition Standings

Website has been updated and here are another 5 pre-season games.


14 - 9: Brad P
10 - 5: Justin B
11 - 6: Jason B
11 - 6: John J
11 - 6: Richard G
13 - 9: Tony P
12 - 8: Justin P
12 - 9: Allen C
10 - 7: Thomas R
11 - 8: Ivar A
12 - 11: Mike S
8 - 7: Joe V
8 - 7: Will G
8 - 9: Joel Q
8 - 10: Greg M
7 - 10: TJ O
7 - 10: David K
8 - 12: Gary G
7 - 11: Al H
8 - 12: Mike M
8 - 13: David I
6 - 11: Brian B
5 - 12: Lou P
8 - 15: Joe T

Monday, January 25, 2016

League Reports Updated and Team Tabs Added to Draft Board

League reports are updated through Monday picks, with the exception of any skips as of 10:00 PM.

A few of you have asked where the team tabs went on the draft board.  I eliminated them before the draft because the google sheets response time was lacking.  Not sure what changed, but I added the tabs back in and all seems fine.  I do not have any player for player trades reflected, as that was not part of the actual draft.

Opening Day Matchups - American League

American League
Mike S @ Brad P
Curt Schilling (9-16, 4.34) vs Harvey Haddix (17-5, 3.82)
Mike pased on pictures until round 10, but still ended up with a solid option.  Schilling hasn't recorded and ERA in the 3's since ATB 14, but generally you know what you are going to get - a solid outing and a chance at W.  Division rival Brad waited even longer to draft a starter (though he did land two relievers earlier in the draft) and this series of season long match up may decide the division.  Haddix's numbers in the 355 resims weren't as good as Schillings, but his ATB performance has been the better over the past 4 years.

Tony P @ Gary G
Bill Bernhard (19-11, 3.08) vs. Walter Johnson (16-10, 3.00)
One of two top quality matchups in the American League, this game between division rivals Tony and Gary feature two top-10 starters.  Bernhard was drafted in the 4th this year, the latest the right handers has been picked in 5 years, which is surprising coming off an arguably career best season.  The Big Train is a first round pick 8 of the past 10 years, including this one.  In the past two seasons he's recorded 36 win and hurled 574 innings.

Allen C @ Joe T
Sandy Koufax (9-11, 4.17) vs Kevin Appier (15-8, 4.24)
Appier is a nice find for Joe when considering the round selected - and is another owner waiting until after the 10th to draft their first starting pitcher.  Appier's stock has been rising lately and was recently undrafted in ATB 15, was selected in the 23rd, then the 13th, and now the 11th.  Two years ago the righty went 13-9 with a 2.12 ERA for Joe, almost assuredly factoring into the decision to make him the ace of the staff.   Koufax may be the most underrated pitcher in ATB, even though he is routinely drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Long time ATB owners despise the lefty as he's never approached his real life greatness.  In fact, a quick scan of the all time manager list shows he's never been drafted by any of 8 owners with the longest ATB tenure.  There is good reason - Koufax average and ERA well into the 5's through ATB 13.  Since then, and since a year change to 1965, he's averaged a 3.88 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.  Stat of the day - Koufax is just one of 7 starters to record a WHIP of 1.21 or better in three of the past four seasons. He joins Pedro Martinez, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Bill Bernhard, Garland Braxton, and Johnny Podres.  I would be remis if I didn't mention he's recently had the luxury of playing in extreme pitchers parks.

David I @ John J
Roger Clemens (DNP) vs Pedro Martinez (21-6, 1.57)
David went with Clemens circa 1997 which gives the famous righty to a career stat line of 11-12, 3.83 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.  This year choice has had it's ups and downs with five seasons resulting in ERA's in around 4 and four seasons a more respectable 3.50.  Martinez needs no introduction, he is unarguably the best starting pitcher in the game and coming off his career best season.

Greg M @ Lou P
Tex Hughson (14-12, 4.16) vs Jake Arrieta (New)
Hughson has recorded double digit wins in 7 of his last 8 seasons.  He may still be riding a high from his first three years in the league when he averaged a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHP.  Since then it's been 4.19 and 1.29.  Jake Arrieta was a gamble for Lou as he's never been drafted.  In hindsight, a 3rd round pick was a stretch.

Justin B (6-8, 2.93) @ Jason B (18-11, 4.08)
Rick Reuschel vs Nip Winters
Drafted in the 9th round, Reuschel is relatively new to ATB with his rookie campaign coming in season 16.  His draft slot has gone from 21 to 13 to 9, and while he still has a lot to prove, his resim numbers do back up this draft slot  As Justin's ace, he'll have to face Winters who is a legitimate star, despite the down season last year.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Exhibition Standings

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Pre-Season.htm

12 - 6: Brad P
11 - 6: Tony P
 8 - 3: Justin B
11 - 7: Mike S
 8 - 4: Richard G
 9 - 5: Ivar A
10 - 7: Allen C
 7 - 4: Will G
 7 - 5: Jason B
 7 - 5: John J
 6 - 5: Joe V
 7 - 6: Thomas R
 8 - 7: Justin P
 6 - 6: Joel Q
 7 - 8: Mike M
 5 - 7: David K
 6 - 9: Gary G
 7 - 10: David I
 5 - 9: Greg M
 5 - 9: Al H
 4 - 8: TJ O
 6 - 12: Joe T
 3 - 9: Brian B
 2 - 10: Lou P

Opening Day Matchups - National League

Opening day is rapidly approaching (more on that soon) and it's fairly clear who the #1 starters are for each team.  Below is a list of opening day matchups and some brief commentary.  Stats listed are from last season.

National League
Al H @ David K
Clayton Kershaw (19-10, 4.13) vs Juan Marichal (18-12, 3.38)
After what can be described as a league average performance in his rookie year last season, Kershaw dropped a round and was selected 4th.  He hurls against Marichal who arguably had the best year of his ATB career and who is looking to prove he's worthy of a 4th round pick and ace status.

Joe V @ Ivar A
Greg Maddux (15-12, 3.44) vs Justin Verlander (13-16, 2.85)
This is the NL's opening day marquee match up.  Maddux is, on paper at least, the best starter pitcher in the National League.  In his 12 recorded seasons, the righty has exceeded an ERA of over 3.25 just three times and odds are hie comes back strong.  Verlander is a solid ace of a rotation, but has a lot to prove for Ivar who selected him in the 4th round, 2 rounds earlier than last year.

Thomas R @ TJ O
Cy Blaton (14-13, 3.42) vs Al Orth (17-16, 3.59)
Interestingly, each pitcher covered so far was in a 4-man rotation and the trend continues for this East vs West game.  Blanton dropped a round to the 4th this draft but is typically a strong performer year in and out. Orth is an interesting case as he is coming off two consecutive sub-par years when considering the extreme pitchers parks he played in.  Drafted at the end of the second round, Orth must pick up his game or risk dropping rounds in future drafts.

Richard G @ Justin P
Randy Johnson (17-15, 3.80) vs Jimmy Key (10-8, 5.24)
Here is an interesting fact - RJ has matched his 355 resim stats just twice in his ATB career.  Does he still warrant an early 2nd round selection?  Since ATB 12 his park factors have averaged 105 and has had some suspect defenses behind him, so I say yes.  Selected at the end of Round 9, Justin didn't exactly punt pitching in the draft, but his ace expectations are obviously lower than that of Richards.  Still, Key is coming off an alarmingly bad season and Justin no doubt is thinking back to ATB 16 when Key went 14-9 with a 3.06 ERA for his Spanish Harlem squad.

Mike M@ Joel Q
Carl Hubbell (17-7, 3.68) vs Ted Lyons (12-14, 3.96)
Hubbell is one of my favorite ATB stories as it demonstrates how fresh blood is so very necessary to a league.  The de facto ATB season for Hubbell was 1933 and with a career ATB ERA of 5.02, he was selected on average in the 12th round.  In ATB 14, the 2nd year Gold Country Gossamers (who, by the way, turned ATB on it's head the year before with a defense 1st strategy, changing the league forever) jumped 7 spots and took Hubbel in the 7th round and changed the year.  He went 17-6 with a 2.80 ERA moving up draft positions every year since.  He faces Lyons, who has struggled recently, averaging a 10-16 record with a 3.96 ERA over the last three seasons.

Will G @ Brian B
Babe Adams (8-20, 4.50) vs Garland Braxton (11-13, 3.89)
Adams is coming off his historically worst season and hasn't recorded a campaign at least 2 games over .500 since ATB 12,  This is a make or break season for Adams.  Braxton is a rags to riches story, here is a graph of his draft positions since ATB 9.




Saturday, January 23, 2016

Exhibition Standings

Three more run this AM

10 - 5: Allen C
7 - 2: Richard G
9 - 5: Tony P
9 - 6: Mike S
9 - 6: Brad P
6 - 3: Justin B
6 - 3: Jason B
7 - 4: Ivar A
5 - 4: John J
5 - 4: Joe V
6 - 5: Thomas R
5 - 4: Will G
6 - 6: Justin P
6 - 6: Mike M
4 - 5: David K
5 - 7: Al H
6 - 9: David I
6 - 9: Joe T
3 - 6: Joel Q
3 - 6: TJ O
4 - 8: Gary G
4 - 8: Greg M
2 - 7: Lou P
2 - 7: Brian B

1953 Season Disk Removed from Play

I forgot about 1953 - if the new website can't be used, then adding new ratings from 1953 after the draft started is unfair as well.

While confusing, this has a silver lining.  Several owners are digging into their rosters and questioning some ratings.  If you see something off - email me, and I will make the necessary correctsion.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Exhibition Standings

Three more games run
http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Pre-Season.htm

8 - 4: Mike S
8 - 4: Allen C
5 - 1: Richard G
6 - 2: Ivar A
7 - 4: Tony P
4 - 2: Justin B
4 - 2: Jason B
5 - 3: Thomas R
4 - 2: Will G
5 - 4: Justin P
6 - 6: Brad P
6 - 6: Joe T
3 - 3: John J
3 - 3: TJ O
4 - 5: Al H
5 - 7: David I
2 - 4: Joe V
2 - 4: Joel Q
2 - 4: David K
3 - 6: Gary G
3 - 6: Greg M
3 - 6: Mike M
1 - 5: Lou P
0 - 6: Brian B

Joel Q Wheeling and Dealing

Trade 1
Joel trades David Cone to Gary for Dolf Luque

Trade 2
Joel trades Roy Halladay and his Round 18 to Joe for Whit Wyatt and and a Round 19

Joe V and Brian B Trade


Joe sends his 19th and 24th picks to Brian in exchange for 18 and 26

Thursday, January 21, 2016

League Reports Updated

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/atb.htm

Exhibition Standings

Three more sets of pre-season games posted.  I was lazy, three teams did not have the required # of batters to field a team, so i added "dummy" players with zero stats to make my life easier.  They are the "temp" players if anyone notices.

2.5 7 - 2: Mike S
1.5 6 - 3: Allen C
1.5 4 - 1: Thomas R
0.5 2 - 1: Justin B
0.5 2 - 1: Jason B
0.5 2 - 1: John J
0.5 2 - 1: Will G
0.5 2 - 1: Richard G
0.5 2 - 1: TJ O
0.5 3 - 2: Ivar A
0.5 2 - 1: David K
0 4 - 4: Tony P
0 3 - 3: Al H
0 3 - 3: Justin P
0 3 - 3: Mike M
-0.5 4 - 5: Brad P
-0.5 1 - 2: Lou P
-0.5 4 - 5: Joe T
-0.5 1 - 2: Joe V
-0.5 1 - 2: Joel Q
-1 2 - 4: Gary G
-1.5 0 - 3: Brian B
-2 1 - 5: Greg M
-2.5 2 - 7: David I

Exhibition Standings

Three more sets of games run.  Only teams with 8 batters as of Round 14, pick 17 were included.

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Pre-Season.htm

2 5 - 1: Mike S
1 4 - 2: Allen C
1 2 - 0: Ivar A
0.5 3 - 2: Tony P
0.5 2 - 1: Justin P
-0.5 1 - 2: Gary G
-0.5 1 - 2: Greg M
-0.5 1 - 2: Al H
-0.5 1 - 2: Mike M
-1 2 - 4: Brad P
-1 2 - 4: David I
-1 2 - 4: Joe T

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

League Reports Updated

Here is the last updated roster grid, I'll run some more exhibitions tomorrow

Couple of Trades

Brad P sends 13 and 17 to Lou P for his 14 and 15.

Joe V sends 16 and 18 to Gary G for his 12 and 28

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Roster Grid and League Reports Updated

Tomorrow will likely be last update to roster grid - I stop once every team has enough players for exhbitions.

Roster Grid
League Reports

Please check your rosters and player stats for errors.

Exhbition Standings

6 teams have enough players for some exhibition games.  Goal is around 25 games per team.  9 games run tonight, here are the standings:

1.5 3 - 0: Mike S
0.5 2 - 1: Tony P
-0.5 1 - 2: Brad P
-0.5 1 - 2: Allen C
-0.5 1 - 2: David I
-0.5 1 - 2: Joe T

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/Pre-Season.htm

Monday, January 18, 2016

1953 Season Disk

I purchased the 1953 season disk today, hoping to eek out a Vg defensive rating for Al Rosen.  Alas, it didn't work, and $15 was spent without much payoff.  However, I did get a few error points in my favor.

There are also a few impacts to other 1953 players.  For the most part these are all positive.  One is slightly negative, but negligible that I am not going to prevent the update.  If any were significant, I would have kept the better rating as it would not have been fair to the owner to draft X and receive Y instead.

Here are the impacts

  • Roy Campanella
    • Sac Bunt - Av to Pr
  • Eddie Mathews
    • Sac Bunt - Pr to Av
    • Running - Av to Vg
  • Al Rosen
    • Sac Bunt - Fr to Pr
    • Fielding - Av/100 to Av/77
  • Red Schoendeinst
    • Fielding - Vg/71 to Ex/71
  • Alvin Dark
    • Sac Bunt - Av to Ex
    • Bunt Hit - Pr to Vg
    • Running - Av to Vg
  • Harvey Kuenn
    • Sac Bunt - Pr to Av
    • Running - Av to Vg
  • Hank Thompson
    • Sac Bunt - Pr to Av
    • Fielding - Av/86 to Fr/86
  • Gene Woodling
    • Fielding - Av/17 to Vg/17
The season disk ratings updated here.

355 Resim Totals per Team

I've previously shown real life batting totals, here is an attempt at team totals using the 355 resim data.  Please click to enlarge.



Note that any players not in the 355 resims - Arrieta, Harper, Greinke - do not count in the totals.

"List of Drafted Players" Tab Update

FYI - I added the year to the "List of Drafted Players" tab of the draft board.  Sorry if this screws up any vlookups someone might have working (this means you Justin P and Mike S).

League Reports and Roster Grid Updated Through Monday Picks

Most of the talk has been about owner preparedness  -  thank you for your timely and well thought out selections!

Roster Grid and League Reports are updated.  Please start to scrutinize your teams to ensure I don't have any errors.

Lou P and Brian B Swap Jennings, Connor

Lou sends SS Hughie Jennings and his 10th round pick to Brian for first basemen Roger Connor and a 6th rounder.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Roster Grid Update

League Reports and grid are updated.

Tony P and Lou P Trade

Lou sends picks 6 and 7 to Tony in exchange for picks 5 and 10

Brian B Trades up With David I

David I trades 5th (106) , 27th (634), and 28th (663) to

Brian B for 8th (185) , 10th (233) , and 12th (281)

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Roster Grid Update

Trends are more difficult to spot, but noticeable today from the Roster Grid:

  • Gary G is the first to three SPs - W Johnson, A Joss, and H Brecheen
  • Joe V soon followed - G Maddux, C Mathewson, and J Tannehill
  • 7 teams have no starters, 5 have no pitchers
  • Center field remains one of the strongest positions - 13 have already been taken, and there are still quality options available.
Total drafted by position

C  5
1B 12
2B 7
3B 6
SS 5
LF 7
CF 13
RF 11
DH 3
SP 25
RP 2

League Reports have been updated with rosters through round 4.  And here are the team batting and pitching totals for the 4 rounds:




Introducing South Boston Sabermetrics

Justin B will be doing the calculations....

BJ not JB

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Roster Grid Update

Moving this to the blog.

Day 3 in the books.  Here is the roster grid and rosters have been updated online.

Observations

  • Three teams have two starters.  Which two do you like the best?
    • Pedro Martinez and Zach Greinke (John J)
    • Greg Maddux and Christy Mathewson (Joe V)
    • Randy Johnson and P Alexander (Richard G)
  • Justin P has set a new unofficial record - earliest reliever taken.  Red Ryan was taken 75th overall last year (Rd 4), a record then,  but JP jumped even early at 70th (Rd 3).
  • Jake Arrieta joins the previously drafted Zach Greinke as two high risk/high reward players taken in crucial early rounds.
  • Overall, this continues to be the best draft in our history.  Owners have done their homework!

Bagwell Traded to Joe T

Will G sends Jeff Bagwell, their 8th round pick and their 11th round pick

to

Joe T for his 4th, 5th and 7th round picks.

Welcome Richard G!

Thomas has found a replacement for Stephen L - welcome Richard!

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Draft - Day 1: No Love for the Catchers

Picks by position

4 - 2B
4 - CF
3 - SS
3 - RF
3 - SP
2 - LF
2 -1B
1 - 3B
0 - C


Monday, January 11, 2016

Justin B Trades Up

With Joe V.  The two swap picks in rounds 1, 2, 6, and 10, so:

  • to Joe V - picks 11, 38, 134, and 230
  • to Justin B - picks 5, 44, 140, and 236

NL West Parks


Updated AL East Park Factors

I had the wrong factors for Baker Bowl...


Saturday, January 9, 2016

Friday, January 8, 2016

Grumman Hellcats Return

David K is the Air Boss


Resolved Draft Board Order Problem

The order of picks after Round 6 on the Draft Board were not accurate.  Thanks David K for noticing.  I just updated, if anyone was looking at there times after Rd 6 they all just changed.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Not Many HR's in the NL East - Park Factors Set


Jeff City Blausers Return

Thomas R is the man with the plan...


Planet 10 Red Lectroids Return

Ivar A is da boss...


Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters Return

Justin P fills the candy...

Chattanooga Lookouts Return

Al H will continues to run the frfanchise...


Introducing the Seattle Pilots

Tony P owner and operator....


Who is the Worst ATB Player?

After yesterdays post regarding the best ATB player to draft, Brian B posed a great question – who is the worst player in ATB history?  We all want the best players and spend plenty of time trying to determine who is worthy of a draft pick, but who we should  be avoiding is almost as important.

There are a couple of ways to go about this.  In ATB 11, shortstop Woody English batted .178 / .247 / .199 in 473 at bats for World Team Police and by all accounts this is the single worst season I've come across.  But English hasn't been drafted in years and likely never will be again, so in order to avoid a short article, let's widen the net.

Instead, we'll ask who the worst regular that owners still want on their team.  To do this, we'll only allow players who've been drafted each of the past three years and accumulated over 900 at bats

158 players meet this criteria and Keith Hernandez is the worst batter, by a fairly large margin.  In 924 plate appearances the slick fielding first basemen has recorded a .541 OPS (.209 / .261 / .281). 

He's great in the field – Ex/50 – so maybe we should let him off the hook.  Not surprisingly, the 18 worst batters all have plus fielding, either in terms of error rate, range, or both.  The first batter on the list who's a liability in the field is Howard Johnson. 

Johnson is a great example of how crappy memories can be.  Most owners with 6+ years of tenure will remember the breakout campaign HoJo enjoyed a few year back – slamming 31 home runs and driving in 108 for the Willets Point "Mechanics" (incidentally, owner Matt B took the season off this year).  This is the same "Mechanic" team that was lucky enough to have that magical year from Greg Maddux (23-3, 1.92 ERA) and the combo led them to a 90 win season. 

Since then however, Johnson's been abysmal, and over the last three seasons has batted .213 / .268 / .387, and combine that with Fr/112 defense, he has really hurt is teams.  Still, his 355 resims are solid enough at .201 / .301 / .433 and it's understandable why he's still drafted.

Johnson dropped to part time duty the last two seasons (less than 300 PA in each), but what about players that get 500 plate appearances a year – who is the worst of that lot?  Pop Lloyd has a .620 OPS but sports Ex/75 defense, so next up is Buddy Myer at .661 OPS.  He's bad, but you could do a lot worse than a .336 OBP from a middle infielder, especially considering the last two seasons his played in extreme pitchers parks.

Maybe we need to do this by position – here's a chart by position, with blue shade for full time players and the peach shade for part time players:


What say you – who are the worst ATB players at the moment?  Personally, my vote goes to either Paul Molitor or Keith Hernandez.

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Shamokin Miners Return

Mike M continues the tradition...


Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Who is the Most Deserving #1 Pick

Oscar Charleston has ruined all the fun. 

Ever since he's joined the league the 1st pick in the draft is no longer in doubt – Charleston's been selected 1st in each of the past three years.  In other words, after his amazing showing in the 500 resims after the ATB 14 season, Charleston has widely been regarded as the best player in the league.

I am not sure this is still holds true.

In the resims, Charleston batted an out of this world .338 / .442 / .625 and followed this up with an ever more other worldly .352 / .458 / .650.  Add in stellar defense (Ex/55 Vg Arm) and selecting him 1st was a simple choice.

Unfortunately, the center fielder has never again approached this level of greatness.  You may recall the era we use in ATB was tweaked a few years ago, and a few all time greats saw abnormal drops in results – Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, and Charleston where the most notable.  In the subsequent 355 resims, Charleston batted .324 / .407 / .604 and followed it up even further declining campaigns in ATB 16 and 17. 

Putting his slash lines in chronological order:

.338 / .442 / .625 – 500 resims
.352 / .458 / .650 – ATB 15
.324 / .407 / .604 – 355 Resims
.318 / .409 / .589 – ATB 16
.289 / .380 / .548 – ATB 17

To be fair, Charleston played in fairly extreme pitchers parks the last two seasons so for our intents I am fine calling the 355 resim a fair approximation of what to expect.  A 1.010 OPS is great, but still a long way off from the previous de facto #1 draft pick, Babe Ruth, who scores a 1.128 OPS.

In the 355 resims Ruth batted .278 / .450 / .670 and taken home back to back MVP Awards.  Granted, his defense is not only worse than Charleston's, it's also a team liability at Av/168.  Or is it? 

According to the some of the defensive studies we've discussed that 168 error rate costs the average of just 2 runs per season to a normal team.  Surely his bat can make up that difference.

Let's not forget Charleston's defense though, which according the studies saves a whopping 22 runs per season, which leaves Ruth 24 total runs to make up for.

We can convert each players 355 resim wOBA to runs using formula's found here and do a full comparison.

This is getting confusing, here's a chart.

 

Wow, that is close.  And frankly I am not confident enough in the margin of error in the defensive studies to declare Charleston the winner here, especially considering his last two seasons where is wOBA averaged .409.  If we were to us that number, Ruth ends up with a 5 run advantage.

What should Brad do?  Probably decide based upon the stadium he selects prior to the draft.  Now if we only had a great way to compare Pedro Martinez to these two.  The best pitcher in the league went 21-6 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.77 WHIP last season, and has his own strong case for #1 pick as well.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Draft Board Posted

Everyone should have received an invite to access, and here is a direct link.

I also added a newish utility to the draft day page - owners often send me requests to find out the error rate of a player they want to create.  Open the spreadsheet, follow the directions, and you can self help!

Introducing the New Amsterdam Highlanders

Last season's Albuquerque Heisenbergs went bankrupt after the owner went AWOL. Some sort of legal trouble for the old owner, according to the interim GM.

Luckily, a Dutch billionaire came in and bought the franchise for pennies on the dollar and is moving it to New Amsterdam. They'll be known as the New Amsterdam Highlanders.

..... Greg M


1800s Fielding Ratings Updated on the Site and Blog

The Player Cards and the main Batter Rating report have been updated.

Here is a re-print of this morning email too:

I know this is fairly short notice, but I have decided to improve the defensive error rates for our 1800s player set.  There are some very significant and meaningful changes.

Our newest owner, Joel, inquired why the 1800s players had such poor error rates, even when they had better than average fielding percentages.  This was because DMB never created the leage average error rate for years prior to 1895 and I simply used those for the entire player set.  

This was a poor way to do it.

Joel's questioning led me to investigate and I can determine these error rates on my own (using the Lahman DB).  Thanks Joel!!!

As one might expect, error rates became worse and worse the earlier back in time I went.  As an example, second basemen averaged 97 errors per 100 games in 1875, but only 44 in 1895.  As a result, the players I created from the earliest years were heavily penalized.

The results as wonderful as they are accurate, but they also will throw a monkey wrench into draft day.  Here are some of the major changes:

  • George Hall: Av/342 down to Av/171
  • Ross Barnes: Ex/124 down to Ex/56
  • Ed Swartwood: Av/209 down to Av/131
  • Fred Dunlap: Vg/111 down to Vg/76
  • Orator Shaffer: Ex/105 down to Ex/71
There are others.  In all, 84 player seasons changed, though, only 36 of these were drafted last year.

Attached is a file of all the changes.  The website reports are not updated yet, but will work on them ASAP.

Also - the Stadium Draft begins Wednesday, 8 picks per day, in reverse order of the player draft.  I should have the draft board up by tonight.

Hoboken Zephyrs Return

Stephen L and the Zephyrs return...


Final Draft Order

#...Owner.......Picks in slot last 2 yrs
24. Al H ......(N. Cash, L. Walker)
23. Allen C ...(N. Winters, W. Johnson)
22. Justin P ..(S. Musial, T. Stearnes)
21. Stephen L..(J. DiMaggio, T. O'Neill)
20. Gary G.....(L. Grove, J. DiMaggio)
19. Ivar A.....(W. Wells, N. Lajoie)
18. Thomas R...(T. O'Neill, N. Winters)
17. Tony P.....(T. Stearnes, T. Cobb)
16. Mike M.....(A.  Vaughan, G. Brett)
15. Will G.....(T. Cobb, H. Johnson)
14. Mike S.....(H. Wagner, W. Wells)
13. David K....(H. Johson, A. Vaughan)
12. Joel Q.....(L. Gehrig, T. Williams)
11. Justin B...(G. Maddux, R. Hornsby)
10. David I....(R. Hornsby, G. Maddux)
9.. Joe T......(T. Williams, R. Barnes)
8.. Brian B....(R. Barnes, L. Gehrig)
7.. Jason B....(F. Dunlap, F. Dunlap)
6.. Lou P......(M. Mantle, M. Mantle)
5.. Joe V......(P. Martinez, P. Martinez)
4.. TJ O.......(B. Bonds, H. Wagner)
3.. Greg M.....(B. Ruth, B. Ruth)
2.. John J.....(W. Johnson, B. Bonds)
1.. Brad P.....(O. Charleston, O Charleston)

Player Card Issue

The career average line for pitchers was corrupt for some stat lines.  This has been fixed and posted.

Thanks Mike M for the catch!

Eligible Batter File Issue

For the 2015 records, the first name and last name columns were reversed.  I just posted a new file.  If you have an old version I recommend downloadin a fresh copy or updated your local version.

Thanks Thomas for the catch!