Thursday, December 22, 2011

The Impact Of Draft Order

The Random Number Generator (of Death, mwahahaha!) can be an owner’s best friend or worst nightmare come draft day.  With a Top-2 pick you’re guaranteed a superstar in the form of Babe Ruth or Pedro Martinez, and with a 3-4 pick you have an elite list of players to pick from, be it Lady Baldwin for your staff or someone like Mickey Mantle to anchor a lineup and defense simultaneously.

But where is the trade off?  Is it better to have an 8th pick and land a player like Rogers Hornsby, but then have to wait 22 rounds for a Dan Brouthers or Randy Johnson; or pick last and pick up a Ty Cobb and John McGraw back to back at the turn?

I ran some numbers on the past 5 drafts – the only in which we haven’t used any PC teams – and the results while not necessarily groundbreaking, can lead is to some potentially vital conclusions.

In general terms it makes little difference if you pick in the first or second half of the draft.  Owners picking earlier in the first half have a cumulative .505 winning percentage and those picking in the latter have average a .495 winning percentage.  Over 162 games, that works out to be a 2.4 game difference, appreciable for certain, but in the grand scheme of things the difference between an 88 and 90 win team is very small.

Note: I hit a bit of a snag in how best to compile the data.  We have 16 round draft days as well as 24 round drafts, and the difference in 8 rounds is crucial.  To mitigate these differences I decided to normalize the rounds by separating each draft into buckets of 10% increments, and comparing the results by each increment.
 

Digging deeper into the results, a dangerous trend emerges.  Obviously with a Top 4 pick team success is all but assured, but as you approach the 7/8 picks, team success drops off the table before rising and eventually leveling off.  This implies one should wish for a Top 4 pick, perhaps Top 5, but then anything else in the Top-10 is a hindrance and not a benefit. 

We’ll come back to this point in a moment but first need to spend some time dissecting that 11-12 selection.  With a .549 winning percentage sandwiched between a .479 and .484, this slot sticks out like a sore thumb.  On one hand, the small sample size of just five drafts in the study needs to be considered since one or two abnormal teams can really skew the results.  Similarly, it’s important to note that five historically great owners (Jason B, Justin P, Lou P, Mike S, Steve C) have just happened to have picked in this slot.  Is the cumulative .549 winning percentage a result of the slot or of the general ability of the owners?

On first glance I assumed it was the owner base, but even if you take out the five, the balance of the teams have averaged a .528 winning percentage, considerably better than all but two other slots. 

We can draw a simple conclusion:  This spot is the best place to capitalize on another’s mistake:
  • Last year Tip O’Neill and Greg Maddux were nabbed here?  Why?  Two other owners stumbled early and took Jimmy Foxx and Hugh Duffy ahead of them.
  • In ATB XII again it was Tip O’Neill this time by Steve C, only available because Jimmy Foxx was again selected too early.  The Chips ended with a .617 Wpct.
  • ATB XI was infamous, as Ted Williams was passed on for Hugh Duffy, Roger Connor, Randy Johnson, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, and Fred Dunlap among others.  Justin happily grabbed him and won 96 games.
  • In ATB X Jason B selected Honus Wagner, only available because someone else thought Addie Joss was a Top 10 pick.  Jason’s Fanclub won 95 games.
  • Finally, in ATB IX yours truly ended up with Ted Williams by way of a too early Mark McGwire pick, my Red Eagles won 104 games.
Year in and year out owners make mistakes early in the draft.  If you happen to land a draft pick immediately after these one or two gaffes, you can easily end up with Top 5 value while not having to wait so long for the Round 2 pick to come back.

Getting back to the original point of poor winning percentages immediately after pick 5.  I believe this is occurring not because the talent after pick 5 is so bad; rather, the talent is not so obvious.  Everyone knows what do with the Top 5 picks in the draft but once the superstars are off the board, owners are forced to think and mistakes can happen.

I am generalizing here, but my conclusions:
  • A Top 4 or 5 pick is still the best place to draft, especially Top 2
  • The rest of the draft is relatively equal – if you make a good pick
  • However, the easiest place to make a mistake in the 1st round between choices 5-10, and making one here can kill a team.  
  • Conversely, the best place to capitalize on an owner's mistake are the handful of selections immediately after.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Pitchers with Clutch Bonus

If you recall, Hall of Famer's now get a 'clutch' boost.  Below is a list of current ATB pitchers who now receive the bonus.  If time permits, I will run a study to see how much effect this has on a player.

This is the last hope for 3-Finger.


Alexander,Pete-1915
Bender,Chief-1910
Brown,Mordecai-1906
Brown,Mordecai-1908
Brown,Mordecai-1909
Bunning,Jim-1966
Carlton,Steve-1972
Carlton,Steve-1980
Chesbro,Jack-1902
Chesbro,Jack-1904
Clarkson,John-1885
Coveleski,Stan-1917
Coveleski,Stan-1920
Dean,Dizzy-1933
Dean,Dizzy-1934
Dean,Dizzy-1938
Drysdale,Don-1957
Drysdale,Don-1960
Drysdale,Don-1964
Eckersley,Dennis-1990
Faber,Red-1921
Feller,Bob-1940
Feller,Bob-1946
Fingers,Rollie-1981
Ford,Whitey-1958
Ford,Whitey-1961
Ford,Whitey-1964
Galvin,Pud-1875
Galvin,Pud-1884
Gibson,Bob-1968
Gomez,Lefty-1931
Gomez,Lefty-1934
Gomez,Lefty-1937
Gossage,Rich-1977
Gossage,Rich-1980
Gossage,Rich-1981
Gossage,Rich-1982
Griffith,Clark-1898
Griffith,Clark-1901
Grove,Lefty-1930
Grove,Lefty-1931
Hubbell,Carl-1933
Hubbell,Carl-1936
Hunter,Catfish-1972
Hunter,Catfish-1974
Hunter,Catfish-1975
Jenkins,Fergie-1970
Jenkins,Fergie-1971
Johnson,Walter-1912
Johnson,Walter-1913
Joss,Addie-1904
Joss,Addie-1908
Keefe,Tim-1883
Keefe,Tim-1888
Koufax,Sandy-1963
Koufax,Sandy-1965
Koufax,Sandy-1966
Lemon,Bob-1954
Lyons,Ted-1939
Marichal,Juan-1965
Marichal,Juan-1966
Marquard,Rube-1916
Mathewson,Christy-1905
Mathewson,Christy-1908
Mathewson,Christy-1909
McGinnity,Joe-1904
Newhouser,Hal-1945
Newhouser,Hal-1946
Nichols,Kid-1898
Niekro,Phil-1967
Niekro,Phil-1974
Palmer,Jim-1972
Palmer,Jim-1975
Perry,Gaylord-1972
Perry,Gaylord-1974
Plank,Eddie-1915
Radbourn,Charley-1883
Radbourn,Charley-1884
Rixey,Eppa-1915
Rixey,Eppa-1924
Roberts,Robin-1952
Roberts,Robin-1953
Roberts,Robin-1954
Rusie,Amos-1894
Rusie,Amos-1897
Ryan,Nolan-1981
Ryan,Nolan-1987
Ryan,Nolan-1991
Seaver,Tom-1969
Seaver,Tom-1970
Seaver,Tom-1971
Spahn,Warren-1953
Sutter,Bruce-1977
Sutton,Don-1972
Vance,Dazzy-1924
Vance,Dazzy-1925
Vance,Dazzy-1930
Waddell,Rube-1900
Waddell,Rube-1902
Waddell,Rube-1904
Waddell,Rube-1905
Walsh,Ed-1908
Walsh,Ed-1909
Walsh,Ed-1910
Welch,Mickey-1885
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1959
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1965
Wilhelm,Hoyt-1967
Willis,Vic-1899
Wynn,Early-1950
Young,Cy-1892
Young,Cy-1895
Young,Cy-1901
Young,Cy-1903
Young,Cy-1905
Young,Cy-1908

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Iron Man: Changes to Current Pitchers

Meant to include this in the previous post.  Here are the current pitchers in the DMB Database that will become Iron Men, some big names on this list:


Alexander,Pete-1915
Antonelli,Johnny-1954
Avery,Steve-1993
Barrett,Red-1945
Blue,Vida-1971
Blue,Vida-1975
Blyleven,Bert-1973
Bradley,George-1876
Bunning,Jim-1966
Carlton,Steve-1972
Carlton,Steve-1980
Chesbro,Jack-1904
Clarkson,John-1885
Clemens,Roger-1997
Coombs,Jack-1910
Cooper,Mort-1942
Cooper,Wilbur-1920
Corcoran,Larry-1880
Coveleski,Stan-1917
Coveleski,Stan-1920
Cuellar,Mike-1969
Daily,Hugh-1884
Davenport,Dave-1915
Dean,Dizzy-1933
Devlin,Jim-1876
Donohue,Pete-1925
Drysdale,Don-1964
Drysdale,Don-1960
Faber,Red-1921
Falkenberg,Cy-1914
Feller,Bob-1940
Feller,Bob-1946
Fernandez,Alex-1996
Ford,Whitey-1961
Galvin,Pud-1884
Gomez,Lefty-1937
Gooden,Dwight-1985
Griffith,Clark-1898
Gubicza,Mark-1988
Halladay,Roy-2002
Halladay,Roy-2003
Hecker,Guy-1884
Hendrix,Claude-1914
Hentgen,Pat-1996
Hentgen,Pat-1997
Hernandez,Felix-2009
Hernandez,Felix-2010
Hubbell,Carl-1936
Hudson,Tim-2003
Hughson,Tex-1946
Hunter,Catfish-1974
Hunter,Catfish-1975
Hutchison,Bill-1890
Jackson,Danny-1988
Jenkins,Fergie-1971
Jenkins,Fergie-1970
Johnson,Randy-2004
Johnson,Randy-1999
Johnson,Walter-1912
Johnson,Walter-1913
Kaat,Jim-1966
Keefe,Tim-1883
Key,Jimmy-1987
Kilroy,Matt-1887
King,Silver-1888
Koufax,Sandy-1963
Koufax,Sandy-1965
Koufax,Sandy-1966
Lee,Bill-1938
Loaiza,Esteban-2003
Lolich,Mickey-1971
Lonborg,Jim-1967
Luque,Dolf-1923
Mathewson,Christy-1905
Mathewson,Christy-1908
McCormick,Jim-1880
McCormick,Jim-1884
McGinnity,Joe-1904
McLain,Denny-1968
McQuillan,George-1908
Morris,Ed-1885
Morris,Jack-1986
Mungo,Van-1936
Mussina,Mike-2001
Newcombe,Don-1956
Newhouser,Hal-1946
Newhouser,Hal-1945
Newsom,Bobo-1940
Nichols,Kid-1898
Niekro,Phil-1974
Oswalt,Roy-2002
Owen,Frank-1905
Paige,Satchel-1931
Palmer,Jim-1975
Peavy,Jake-2007
Perry,Gaylord-1972
Pettitte,Andy-2007
Radbourn,Charley-1884
Radbourn,Charley-1883
Ramsey,Toad-1886
Reynolds,Shane-1996
Richard,J.R.-1979
Rijo,Jose-1993
Roberts,Robin-1952
Roberts,Robin-1954
Roberts,Robin-1953
Rogan,Bullet Joe-1916
Rogers,Steve-1982
Rusie,Amos-1897
Rusie,Amos-1894
Sabathia,C.C.-2008
Saberhagen,Bret-1989
Sain,Johnny-1946
Sain,Johnny-1948
Santana,Johan-2004
Schilling,Curt-2001
Schilling,Curt-2002
Schilling,Curt-1997
Scott,Mike-1986
Shaw,Dupee-1884
Sheets,Ben-2004
Smoltz,John-1996
Sparks,Tully-1906
Stieb,Dave-1985
Trout,Dizzy-1944
Tudor,John-1985
Vance,Dazzy-1924
Vaughn,Hippo-1919
Vazquez,Javier-2003
Viola,Frank-1987
Viola,Frank-1988
Waddell,Rube-1904
Walsh,Ed-1908
Walsh,Ed-1910
Walters,Bucky-1939
Webb,Brandon-2007
Weimer,Jake-1904
Whitney,Jim-1881
Willis,Vic-1899
Wood,Joe-1912
Wood,Wilbur-1971
Wyatt,Whit-1941
Young,Cy-1901
Zito,Barry-2002

Pitcher Iron Men Rules Update

The qualification for Pitcher Iron Men has been updated.  7% was just too few to make a difference; the era's were adjusted so that about 15% of the starting pitchers are now iron men.

Rules (below) are convoluded but remember, the pitcher file in excel will just simply list if the player is an Iron Man or not.  You really only need these rules if you plan on doing your own calculations.

1994-current:  34+ Starts
1988-1993:  35+ Starts
1961-1980:  38+ Starts
1924-1960:  34+ Starts
1909-1923:  36+ Starts
1897-1908:  37+ Starts
1893-1896:  50+ Starts
1874-1892:  58+ Starts
1871-1873:  55+ Starts

The above gives each one of these era's somewhere around 15% eligibility.

Monday, November 21, 2011

The Next Mickey Mantle

Had to share, this was from River Ave Blues today - once called the next Mickey Mantle.... Ruben Rivera

Select Iron Men

I've worked through the Iron Man setting for batters and pitchers.  The results are satisfactory to me - about 10% of the batter pool and 7% of the pitcher pool ends up being Iron Men. 

Key Iron Men:

First Base
1927 Lou Gehrig
1932 Jimmie Foxx
1940 Johnny Mize
2009 Albert Pujols
1938 Hank Greenberg

Second Base
1910 Nap Lajoie
1909 Eddie Collins
1951 and 1949 Jackie Robinson
1934 Charlie Gehringer
1892 Cupid Childs

Third Base
1953 Al Rosen
1969 Harmon Killebrew
1971 Joe Torre
1953 Eddie Mathews
2005 Alex Rodriguez

Shortstop
1887 Oyster Burns
1959 Ernie Banks
2001 Alex Rodriguez
1936 Arky Vaughan
1898 Hughie Jennings

Left Field
1924 Babe Ruth
1947 Ted Williams
1948 Stan Musial
1967 Carl Yastrzemski
1937 Joe Medwick

Center Field
1912 Tris Speaker
1915 Ty Cobb
1930 hack Wilson
1953 Duke Snider
1962 Willie Mays

Right Field
2001 Sammy Sosa
1912 Joe Jackson
1909 Ty Cobb
1962 Frank Robinson
1996 Gary Sheffield

Starters
2004 Randy Johnson
1965 Sandy Koufax
1901 Cy Young
1915 Pete Alexander
1908 Christy Mathewson
1971 Vida Blue
1883 Tim Keefe

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Proposed Changes for Next Season

It's time to starting thinking about the next ATB, tentatively set for early spring of 2012.  During the off-season I'll be updating our database with various 2011 players and improving upon our fatigue settings.  Additionally, I am toying around with the following changes:

1) 28 Man Rosters

  • To speed up the draft, especially since I want to expand # of teams
  • I am all for platooning, but want to make sure this isn't over used.  
2) Iron Man Injury Ratings
  • DMB allows for an iron man injury setting, reducing the odds a player gets injured.  It does not eliminate the chance of injury.  Batters and Pitchers will have unique sets of parameters, and I want to keep the number of players with this rating to under 20%.  First Draft:
a.    Batters 
i.    160 games 1961 – current
ii.    152 games 1904-1960
iii.    135 games 1893-1903
iv.    140 games 1886-1892
v.    1885 or early not eligible
b.    Pitchers
i.    35+ starts 1994-current
ii.    36+ starts 1988-1993
iii.    38+ starts 1924-1980
iv.    40+ starts 1909-1923
v.    45+ starts 1897-1908
vi.    50+ starts 1893-1896
vii.    68+ starts 1874-1892
viii.    55+ starts 1871-1873


3)  Clutch Ratings.  All HOF'ers and Negro Leaguer's to be considered 'clutch'.  Minor impact, per DMB:
If you use them, batters and pitchers with better-than-normal clutch and jam ratings will be a little better than usual in the late innings of close games. But this isn't a strong factor in the design of the game, so we recommend that you avoid placing a lot of weight on these ratings when making your decisions. It's rarely a good idea to use a weaker player over a better one just because the weaker player may have a better clutch or jam rating.

4) Finally, I am toying around with idea of reducing the number of games played per week.  Right now it is about 15. Perhaps we can play 2 games per mini-sim and reduce it to 10 games per week.

Would love your thoughts on all the above.  nothing is set it stone, but I am fairly convinced 1 and 2 are great ideas, 3 and 4 less so.

Monday, August 22, 2011

20 Resims Files

Here are two summary files that contain resim data:

Summary of Results

Team Data by Player

Enjoy!

20 Resims Summary - #1, Gold Country Gossamers

#1 – Gold Country Gossamers
Owner: Justin B
Activity Level: Moderate
Park Factor: Let’s just list it:
110/98 – Singles
94/90 – Doubles
96/100 – Triples
22/22 – Home Runs

Has the face of ATB changed forever? This, and not just naming the best team, is the most pertinent question we can ask ourselves in reviewing our 20-resims. With one of the best pitching staffs we’ve ever seen, and 180 more wins than any other team in the 20-resims, it’s clear the Gossamers were the best team in ATB this year. But what is the long term impact on draft strategy and team composition?

First, a few words the ATB XIII Gossamers. We know from the regular season Gold Country focuses on great pitching and even better defense. Perhaps just as important was there platoon strategy. With early draft picks mostly going towards pitching, Justin had to mix and match with his offense and the result was unofficial ATB record of six (!) platoons. Only Eddie Collins (.381 OBP), Pop Lloyd (.354 OPB), and Richie Ashburn (.363) were full time players. The rest of the lineup were successful, even if lacking star quality:

Catcher: Aaron Robinson (.677 OPS) and Bill Freehan (.628 OPS)
First Base: John Olerud (.378 OBP) and Frank Chance (.367 OBP)
Third Base: Stan Hack (.608 OPS – the only truly bad player) and Ezra Sutton (.355 OPS)
Left Field: Fred Clarke (.767 OPS) and Joe Kelley (.352 OBP)
Right Field: Al Kaline (.714 OPS) and And Van Slyke (.689 OPS)
DH: Bobby Murcer (.778 OPS) and Magglio Ordonez (.718 OPS)

As you’ll see below, the pitching staff was incredible. While many of the names we already associate with greatness, pitchers such as Arthur Rhodes, John Wetteland, and Jesse Tannehill are as much a product of their environment as it is of their true talent level.

Their best regulars were as follows:

Vg/48 with Vg arm - Catcher
Vg/91 – First Base
Ex/59 – Second Base
Ex/74 – Shortstop
Ex/61 – Third Base
Ex/70 – Left Field
Ex/100 – Center Field
Ex/62 – Right Field

Now back to the question at hand. Had I left this season with the paragraph above, the answer would have been no. A single great season without a World Series Championship would have convinced few the merits of a total pitching and defense strategy. However, my curiosity led me to substitute the worst team in the 100 resims with the Gossamers.

The results? In 50 resims this time, another clear and astounding victory for Justin B. In his first year in our league, he put together the single greatest team we’ve ever seen:

91 Wins – Gold Country Gossamers
87 Wins – Lusitania Death Speakers
86 Wins – Pangea T-Rex
84 Wins – DC Chips (X)
84 Wins – Manetheren Red Eagles

(Of course, the standings after the Gossamers don’t match what we saw over 100 re-sims, which does leave some open some loose ends to tackle for another day.)

Congratulations Justin B! Next season look for at least one team to fight you for the same players.

800 OPS Batters
None!

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Every dang one of em’:
Rd 1 – Pedro Martinez: 22-7, 2.49 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 273 IP, 280 K
Rd 4 – Scott Stratton: 17-11, 3.49, 1.23 WHIP, 249 IP, 228 K
Rd 5 – Jesse Tannehill: 16-11, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 244 IP, 124 K
Rd 14 – Cliff Lee: 15-13, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 237 IP, 118 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Who wasn’t?
Rd 10 – Rafael Betancourt: 8-5, 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 112 IP, 80 K, 24 Sv
Rd 12 – Bruce Sutter: 8-3, 2.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 118 IP, 121 K
Rd 15 – Steve Howe: 5-5, 2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 70 IP, 16 K, 22 Sv
Rd 17 – Arthur Rhodes: 4-1, 2.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 64 IP, 57 K
Rd 22 – John Wetteland: 2-3, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 21 IP, 18 K
Rd 23 – Mike Myers: 5-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 50 IP, 32 K

The only pitcher on the entire staff not listed in the two categories above was Brett Saberhagen. And he had a 3.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 33 IP.

And before anyone cries park factor, the only extreme rating in this park was HR factor, and idea we’ve seen at least a dozen times already

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 9 – Paul Waner. After a .592 OPS in 55 games he was dropped.

Value Draft Pick
Any one of those late round relievers will do, but Cliff Lee , whom nobody that was an especially good pick, gets the nod.


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine
#3, 93 Wins – Big Dan and the Ladys
#2, 93 Wins – Newark Slam Dumps
#1, 102 Wins – Gold Country Gossamers

Friday, August 19, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #2, Newark Slam Dumps

#2 – Newark Slam Dumps
Owner: Sean S
Activity Level: Extremely High
Park Factor: About Average (Increase hits, decrease home runs)



With a 2nd ranked offense and 13 division titles in the toughest of the three division, Sean and Jay’s Newark Slam Dumps were a team to be reckoned with. Having underperformed in the regular season, many thought the Dumps were a long shot to go deep in the playoffs. However, with the league’s second best regular season run differential, there were signs that this squad was top-3 in the league. They tied for the league best Max Win Potential at 110.

Led by 1st Rounder and league MVP Mickey Mantle, their offense was of course a vital key to their success. Aside from the great trio listed below (and who would have thought Heilmann was a legit 2nd rounder) their lineup also featured a high on-base catcher (Mickey Cochrane, .378), third basemen (Wade Boggs, .382), and platoon of left fielders (Sherry Magee, .370 and Roy Thomas, .380).

Finally, we saw a recurrence of the correct Randy Johnson year (2004) and it paid off. With Bill Bernhard, Teddy Higuera, Joel Horlen, and Hank Aguirre every starter had an ERA under 4.50. While that makes for a very good rotation, the bullpen was even better. Four are listed below in the “Sub-3.25 ERA Reliever” heading and three more were close to making the cut as well.

Any other season, this team or our #3 Lady’s could easily have been ranked #1 in the league. But as mentioned yesterday, neither team was close to the level of the top team in ATB XIII (and perhaps the top team of all time?)

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Mickey Mantle: .925 OPS, .327 / .436 / .489, 22 HR, 120 R, 108 RBI
Rd 2 – Harry Heilmann: .803 OPS, .312 / .370 / .434, 33 2B
Rd 7 – Frank Robinson: .815 OPS, .277 / .347 / .467, 33 HR, 102 R, 136 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 1 – Randy Johnson: 16-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 225 IP, 187 K
Rd 4 – Bill Bernhard: 14-11, 3.98 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 227 IP, 77 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 11 – Rafael Soriano: 3-3, 2.88 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 37 IP, 38 K, 20 Sv
Rd 13 – Rob Murphy: 3-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44 IP, 20 K, 23 Sv
Rd 20 – Buddy Groom: 5-4, 3.07 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 50 IP, 23 Sv
Rd 22 – Huston Street: 5-3, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 54 IP, 40 K
Honorable mentions, just to show the depth of this pen: Jim Poole (3.30, 62 IP), Tim Keefe (3.45, 52 IP), and Darren O’Day (2.90, 3 IP  60 total in the 20 Sims)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 6 – Hank Aguirre: 4.46 ERA, 1.47 WHIP. Not that he is terrible, he just could have been had 5 rounds later. It would have been interesting to see what this team could have done, with, say, 9th Rounder Chris Carpenter (3.77 ERA, 281 IP) instead.

Value Draft Pick
Part of me wants to list Frank Robinson, who went as the 112th pick of the draft, but we will stick with Huston Street. Street stunk in the regular season, but it was a great late pick, especially considering the Lady’s wanted him too. Left out of the 100 re-sims in error, Street is a relative unknown but pitches like a top tier reliever.


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine
#3, 93 Wins – Big Dan and the Ladys
#2, 93 Wins – Newark Slam Dumps

Thursday, August 18, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #3, Big Dan and The Lady's

#3 – Big Dan and the Lady’s
Owner: Mike S
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Above Avg 1B, 2B, and 3B; below average HR


There is a tremendous gulf between the third ranked Lady’s and the 4th ranked Machine. The Top 3 teams are clearly superior to all other teams before them, and further, the top ranked team is another significant leap better still.

Mike S as known as a pioneer of sorts, being the first to focus almost entirely on OBP, forsaking all power. This season his squad was more balanced, finishing 3rd in OBP and 6th from the bottom in slugging. In addition to Jason Giambi and Dan Brouthers (listed below), four other regulars had OBP’s at .370 or higher. Among them, the Lady’s employed two on-base only specialists, Candy Nelson (.449 OBP, .698 OPS) and Frank Fennely (.385 OPS, .716 OPS).

Starting pitching was a strong point. Three starters had ERA’s below 4.00 and the remainder of the rotation where all below 4.40. Somewhat of a surprise was the bullpen, were only one member (Jeff Zimmerman) recorded and ERA under 3.25, and only by a narrow margin.

Overall, the Lady’s made the playoffs all 20 seasons (16 division titles) and never once finished with fewer than 87 wins, and fifteen times the finished in the 90’s. They were in fact tied in total wins with our #2 team, but received the lower ranking due to their slightly inferior run differential.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 2 – Dan Brouthers: .854 OPS, .327 / .392 / .462, 40 2B, 117 R, 97 RBI
Rd 3 – Jason Giambi: .833 OPS, .284 / .384 / .448, 34 2B, 23 HR, 101 R, 116 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 1 – Lady Baldwin: 17-10, 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 246 IP, 302 K
Rd 4 – Ben Sanders: 15-11, 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 234 IP, 225 K
Rd 7 – Charlie Buffinton: 7-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 95 IP, 94 K, 15 GS

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Jeff Zimmermann: 5-6, 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 115 IP, 59 K, 31 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 17 – Buck Ewing. Not a major thing, but Ewing was drafted as a 1st string catcher and batted .234 / .260 / .312, but not much else can be expected from a 17th round catcher

Value Draft Pick
Rd 29 – Charley Jones: .354 OBP, .399 SLG in 190 AB per sim
Also note Josh Hamilton who batted .343 / .388 / .492 in 951 total at bats



Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine
#3, 93 Wins – Big Dan and the Ladys

20 Resims Summary - #4, Londonderry Machine

#4 – Londonderry Machine
Owner: Brad P
Activity Level: Moderate
Park Factor: About average

With a #4 ranking, the Machine are labeled “the best team to miss the playoffs” in the regular season. Only a handful of teams performed this much below their resim averages and no team lost as much due to bad luck as this one.

The resims proved this was a very good team, making the playoffs 70% of the time and ending as division winners 5 times. While they didn’t have as high a Max Wins or a Max Win Potential as others, neither did they have as low ceiling. Only four times did their win total dip below 80.

The only glaring flaw on this team was the starting pitching. Despite Babe Adams, no starter kept their ERA in the three’s, which maybe more of an indictment on their defense than anything else. The more ATB owners turn to defense, the harder it is not to focus on it. With 3 Av and only 1 Ex defender taking the field, it is very difficult for pitchers to perform up to expectations.

Finally, Ross Barnes was the real thing and will be a legit top 5 pick going forward. In the twenty resims, overall he was

2nd in Batting Average
3rd in Triples
6th in On Base Percentage
6th in Runs Created and RC/27
6th in OPS

Basically, he bats like Tip O’Neill but plays stellar (Ex) defense at one of the weakest positions, 2nd base.

Comparing him directly to his second base brethren, it is clear he is now the best in game:



800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Ross Barnes: .893 OPS, .346 / .421 / .472, 29 2B, 23 3B, 101 R, 120 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 9 – Dennis Eckersley: 5-5, 2.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 79 IP, 65 K, 38 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 3 – Billy Hamilton. I might be overly harsh because the man had a .378 OBP, but with so many good CF and on a team where only one person reached 20 HR, perhaps this 3rd pick could have been used on someone like Duke Snider (.283 / .349 / 464) or another legit starter a la Cannonball Titcomb or Ben Sanders.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 30 – Joey Votto. It’s only a total of 1400 at bats over 20 seasons, but Votto batted .281 / .351 / .427

Honorable mention to Ross Barnes. A gutsy call for Brad to take this unknown in the 1st round, but it easily was worth it.


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub
#4, 86 Wins – Londonderry Machine

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #5, John McDonald Fanclub

#5 – John McDonald Fanclub
Owner: Jason B
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Very High 1B, 2B, 3B, low HR

Surprise! Due to the Fanclub’s inauspicious start to the season and poor September, nobody realized this was in fact a very good team. Led by the 2nd best pitching in the league, John McDonald won on average 85 games per season. 16 times they were above .500 and had at least 90 wins on five different occasions.

With a great defense behind them, three starters held ERA’s under 4.00 while the last two, Guy Hecker and Dwight Gooden, were good starters as well. Both returned ERA’s at 4.30 or better. Seven different relievers had ERA’s in the three’s.

Offensively, this team hit its share of extra base hits, was better than average in stolen bases, and was Top 10 in batting average. Where it suffered was on-base percentage. Outside of their top to picks, Norm Cash (see below) and Tris Speaker (.334 / .397 / .400, 103 R, 62 SB), no other batter on their entire team could muster a .345 OBP. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez could only manage .257.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Norm Cash: .841 OPS, .301 / .385 / .456, 23 HR, 93 R, 95 RBI
Rd 6 – Albert Belle: .845 OPS, .291 / .341 / .484, 29 HR, 92 R, 105 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 3 – Cy Blanton: 14-10, 3.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 218 IP, 127 K
Rd 9 – Ron Guidry: 12-11, 3.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 201 IP, 158 K
Rd 22 – Silver King: 8-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 134 IP, 60 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Gabe White: 6-5, 2.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 87 IP, 67 K
Rd 24 – Dan Quisenberry: 7-2, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 157 IP, 42 K

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 12 – Joe Tinker. Yeah, he is a defensive minded specialist but you can’t have someone batting .236 / .264 / .311 in your every day lineup.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 22 – Silver King (see above)


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips
#5, 81 Wins – John McDonald Fanclub


20 Resims Summary - #6, DC Chips

#6 – DC Chips
Owner: Steve C
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Pitchers

There are several aspects of the 6th ranked ATB champions for us to wonder about. First and foremost, and I know I have harped on this, despite 300 days lost due to injury, including significant missed time for several stars, Steve piloted his team to more regular season wins than the injury free 20-resims. Frankly, this is incredible and a testament to his lineup and rotation diligence and creativity.

Second, the Chips had the largest spread between their min and max wins, ranging from 11 games below .500 to 19 games above. Their max win potential was tied for the best in the entire league. Players like Ty Cobb, Rickey Henderson, Lefty Grove, and Bobby Shantz have such wide swings in their performance it makes for a roller coaster 20 re-sims. This team only had 11 seasons above .500.

Third - Lefty Grove. Finally he did well!

Fourth – Bobby Shantz. Dropped outright by Hathsin in May, Steve and foresight to pick him up as a free agent and it paid great dividends.

The knock on this squad are the batting selections made between rounds 7 and 16, none of which achieved a .700 OPS. Had the Chips gotten more from their offense here, they would have been a top-3 team.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Ty Cobb: .801 OPS, .315 / .353 / .446, 37 2B, 18 3B, 91 R, 31 SB

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 9 – Lefty Grove: 8-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 133 IP, 88 K
Rd 13 – Fergie Jenkins: 13-12, 3.83 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 211 IP, 130 K
FA – Bob Ojeda: 11-9, 3.72 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 182 IP, 75 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 5 – Joe Neale: 11-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 179 IP. 133 K
Rd 6 – Mariano Rivera: 11-7, 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 157 IP, 122 K, 23 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Willie Mays: .241 / .289 / .404, .693 OPS in a platoon

Value Draft Pick
Rd 26 – Whit Wyatt: 3.66 ERA, 76 IP


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors
#6, 85 Wins – DC Chips

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #7, Hathsin Survivors

#8 – Hathsin Survivors
Owner: Lou P
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Increase 1B, 2B, 3B and suppress HR

This was a fun, if not particularly good, team. Bludgeoning opponents with a solid offense playing in an extreme hitters park, Hathsin scored the most runs of any team in the resims at 871. Their starting offense averaged an .791 OPS with three different people scoring 100 runs. Further, three ‘new to ATB’ players were a success too – catcher Fred Carroll (.407 OBP), George Hall (see below), and Ed Swartwood (see below).

For all that, Lou had a terrible draft picking many of these players up too early at the expense of the pitching staff, ranked 3rd to last in the game. Hall played out of position with a 300 Error Rate and Lou then traded up for Charlie Gehringer of all people then played him out of position too. With this awful defense and the addition of a batters park, even proven greats like Walter Johnson (4.36 ERA) struggled.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Ted Williams: .982 OPS, .349 / .452 / .530, 31 HR, 125 R, 130 RBI
Rd 7 – George Hall: .860 OPS, .329 / .477 / .484, 25 3B, 107 RBI
Rd 14 – Frank Thomas: .835 OPS in a platoon
Rd 25 – Ed Swartwood: .812 OPS, .320 / .377 / .436

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 6 – Cal Mcvey: .733 OPS in bandbox playing the deepest position in ATB, center field. He's not a bad player, and actually starter quality, but could have been had 10 rounds later.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 25 – Swartwood

Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#7, 84 Wins – Hathsin Survivors

20 Resims Summary - #8, Rusty Kuntz All Stars

#8 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
Owner: Shotgun S
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Increase 1B, 2B, 3B heavily suppress HR

Shotgun’s team was very interesting to investigate. On one hand, the reached 96 wins in one of the re-sim’s and were our first team with a 99 Max Win Potential. On the other hand they also suffered through a 95 loss season and have no standout batters or starting pitchers.

A playoff team in regular season and the re-sims, Shotgun did something no other team has done so far – avoided the clunker. One has to look all the way down the draft board to Rd 22 before they find a player with and OPS below .700, and that’s the backup third basemen relegated to 8 AB’s per season. The next pick by the way was Kevin Mitchell who compiled a .777 OPS (in 84 AB).

On the pitching side of the house, only one player on the whole team averaged a 5+ ERA, and that was 25th rounder Lefty Gomez. (Of course he did start 30 games as the last starter in a 4-man rotation, and that did not help the win/loss record).

In a nutshell, Shotgun played it very safe and the result was a playoff contender 85% of the time.

800 OPS Batters
None. Quite incredible for the 8th ranked team with home games in a batters park not to average one player with an OPS of .800

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None.

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – JJ Putz: 5-5, 2.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 68 IP, 58 K, 36 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 8 – Joe Wood. Not a true bust, but Wood average a 4.46 ERA in 248 IP. Rusty needed a bit more from their #2.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 30 – Chicken Wolf: 112 AB, .307 AVG, .356 OBP



Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket
#8, 83 Wins – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars

Sunday, August 14, 2011

20 Resims Summary - #9, Helena Handbasket

#9 – Helena Handbasket
Owner: Joe T
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Increase 1B, 2B, 3B heavily suppress HR


Two things immediately come to mind when reviewing Helana’s data. The first is Robbie Alomar in Round 4! C’mon Joe T, you know better! With such a poor offense, Alomar really hindered the Handbasket’s this year. His defense was very good, not great, and a .615 OPS in a Top-5 round hurts, especially since he went with Ozzie Smith in Rd 9.

The second is the win disparity between the regular season and resims. With 95 wins in ATB XIII, Joe was the third ranked team and a division winner. He made weekly lineup changes and multiple Free Agent moves and should be credited for his managerial skills, this team shined under his soft hands.

Helena made the playoffs 9 teams and had our best single season yet – a 97 win, +118 run differential in resim #6.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Oscar Charleston: .805 OPS, .303 / .348 / .458, 20 HR, 91 R, 98 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 9 – Chris Carpenter: 17-16, 3.77 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 281 IP, 115 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Eric Gagne: 4-3, 2.36 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 63 IP, 85 K, 21 Sv
Rd 12 – BJ Ryan: 5-4, 2.36 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 64 IP, 58 K, 21 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Roberto Alomar: .615 OPS, .240 / .320 / .294, 2 HR, 38 RBI

Value Draft Pick
No standouts, but Kenny Williams in Rd 21 was a nice pinch hitter/backup. He had a .774 OPS in 60 AB per year.

Sweet Free Agent Pickup
Reliever Peter Moylan – 6-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 108 IP


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos
#9, 83 Wins – Helena Handbasket



20 Resims Summary - #10, Kakadu Didgeridoos

#10 – Kakadu Didgeridoos
Owner: TJ O
Activity Level: Extremely Low
Park Factor: Neutral

The Didgeridoos are our second team to make the playoffs during the regular season, only to finish outside the top-8 during the re-sims. Unlike the Willets Point Mechanics case though, the Didgeridoos were on the playoff bubble most of the time and are truly a playoff caliber team.

Owner TJ O drafted almost purely based on the 100 resim findings, resulting in a solid 30 man squad. Of course, with no risky picks there was no true reward, which one can see plainly below. He had no real bust draft picks, but he had no great values either.

The two stars of the team were first basemen Lou Gehrig and closer Jonathan Papelbon. Aside frop Nap Lajoie, the rest of team are interchangeable parts. I do like seeing Sammy Sosa hold his own at least, belting 34 home runs and driving in 103.

Kakadu made the playoffs half the time and were above .500 13 times out of 20.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Lou Gehrig: .999 OPS, .313 / .407 / .592, 38 2B, 11 3B, 36 HR, 111 R, 124 RBI
Rd 2 – Nap Lajoie: .811 OPS, .329 / .360 / .451, 42 2B, 101 R

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 4 – Garland Braxton: 15-11, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 224 IP, 118 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 9 – Jonathan Papelbon: 2.63 ERA, 28 Sv, 1.23 WHIP, 85 IP, 65 K

Bust Draft Pick
No true busts, but Rd 8 – Hal Newhouser: 4.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 202 IP, 233 H

Value Draft Pick
No true value, but Rd 21 – Jason Isringhausen: 3.82 ERA, 88 IP, 62 K



Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
#11, 83 Wins – Otherton Fish Biscuits
#10, 83 Wins – Kakadu Didgeridoos


Saturday, August 13, 2011

All Time Standings Update

Despite not making the playoffs, Lou P jumps to first place overall after last years leader Justin P, suffers through a dismal 68 win season. There were no other major changes in the standings.

Here are the full standings.

A note on methodology. The all time standings are based upon regular season winning percentage, # of post seasons made, # of world series titles, and # of seasons played.

The last is a critcal point to understand. We have owners who have played 4 seasons and others who have played for 14. The owner with relatively few seasons under his belt would never have a shot at the # 1 Ranking if we just used the total regular season wins. But, by the same token, it would be fair for a new owner with 1 great season under his belt to be ranked #1 overall.

For the past 5 years or so, I've instituted a reduction policy. The Power Point total is reduced by percentage points based upon # of seasons played:

No Reduction - 7+ seasons
5% Reduction - 4-6 seasons
10% Reduction - 3 seasons
20% Reduction - 2 seasons
50% Reduction - 1 seasons

Here are the current standings with a few owners removed not playing recently and have few seasons to their credit:

1) 638 Pts - Lou Poulas
2) 634 Pts - Justin Petronzi
3) 632 Pts - Mike Smitko
4) 607 Pts - Steve Chippendale
5) 573 Pts - Sean Seeley
6) 571 Pts - Jason Bernarndon
7) 566 Pts - Brad Peterson
8) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski
9) 532 Pts - Joe Terry
10) 529 Pts - TJ Olszewski
11) 524 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter
12) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein
13) 502 Pts - Jeff Burns
14) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas
15) 482 Pts - Matt Brody
16) 473 Pts - Jay Seeley
17) 457 Pts - Ivar Anderson
18) 442 Pts - Shotgun Spratling
19) 421 Pts - Kevin Crowley
20) 417 Pts - Brian Barnes
27) 339 Pts - Allen Cherulnik
30) 315 Pts - Justin Burnson
46) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes

World Series Page

Friday, August 12, 2011

World Series G6: Surprise start by Grove pays off; gem leads DC to 2-1 win


Chips 2, Slam Dumps 1
The DC Chips are World Champions!

In a surprise move, just before game time owner Steve C scratched the original plan of starting Bobby Shantz, and went with Lefty Grove. Grove was brilliant, only giving up 7 hits in 8 1/3 innings.

The Chips offense barely mustered enough runs against Hank Aguirre themselves, but somehow their 2-run first help up for the entire game. Derek Jeter led off the inning with a single and after a Chipper Jones line out, Ty Cobb walked. In a gutsy call, the double steal was on and it worked. Sure enough the next batter Henry Larkin singled home both runners for a 2-0 lead.

Newark had their best chance to score some runs in the eighth. With 2-outs Harry Heilmann singled up the middle allowing the great Mickey Mantle a shot. He singled, when the whole world wanted an extra base hit, but it brought power hitting Frank Robinson. Robinson had a league leading 143 RBI and 40 HR in the regular season could have quickly given his Slam Dumps the lead. Instead, Grove on his 135th pitch of the day, struck Robinson out on a 1-2 fastball.

Series MVP is Grove. In addition to his Game 6 victory, Grove relieved games 2 and 5, pitching 14 innings and giving up 9 hits while striking out 9. His ERA was 1.29. In game 2 he shut down Newark for 4 innings and picked up a save.

A hearty congratulations to Steve C. Despite the most injuries I have ever seen in ATB, and so many to star players in both the regular season and playoffs, he piloted the Chips to his second World Series title.

Steve donated two trophies for last season and this. He won't even have to mail it this time.

World Series Page

Thursday, August 11, 2011

World Series G5: Robinson HR and 4 RBI help Newark, Bernhard win 5-3

Slam Dumps 5, Chips 3
Newark stayed alive this afternoon, battling the Chips as well as a 43 degree chilly temperature at first pitch. On short rest Bill Bernhard delivered, pitching very well for 7 innings before tiring in the eight. His final line: 8 IP, 8 H, 3 R.

Frank Robinson homered in the 6th to break a 1-1 tie while Mickey Mantle added insurance with a solo blast of his own two innings later. Robinson on the afternoon went 3-4 with 4 RBI and a run scored.

The biggest blow to DC didn't come at the hands of Newark however. Incredibly, Stan Musial went down with yet another injury and is out the rest of the series.

Game 6 (and 7 if necessary) will be played in the Astrodome as the series moves back to DC.


World Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #11, Otherton Fishbiscuits

#11 – Otherton Fish Biscuits
Owner: Brian B
Activity Level: High
Park Factor: Extreme HR Park, but 90 for singles


Our previous team, the Beanballers, is in a virtual tie with the Fish Biscuits. They traded a little more upside for a little less consistency, plus Otherton narrowly averaged more wins per season. In fact, these two squads all the way through our #7 team are very close in talent, each averaging between 82-84 wins.

For their part, the Fish Biscuits had a draft strategy of focusing on home run hitters and stuck with it. Eight regulars hit double digits and 5 of them had at least 20. Interestingly enough, because the low singles rate in the park, the Fish Biscuits traded home runs for batting average and on base percentage, and it may not have worked as well as one would prefer. Their team OBP of .324 was in the lower quarter of the league and certainly prevented them from scoring more runs.

Pitching in the Baker Bowl was difficult as no starters were good enough to make the spotlight list below. The last three men in the rotation averaged a 5.03 ERA between them. Reliever Tim Burke was a bright spot however, compiling a 3.15 ERA in 146 IP. Yet another work horse reliever we’ve forced into duty the past 3-4 seasons.

One other tidbit to note. After the season ended, Brian asked me for an opinion as to whether Ruth or Maddux was the right draft choice for this team. I assume a wash, or at a minimum a slight edge for Ruth, but after 5 resims with the two switched, the Fish Biscuits added an average of 4 wins to their total.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Babe Ruth: 1.071 OPS, .278 / .421 / .650, 68 HR, 130 R, 143 RBI
Rd 2 – Willie McCovey: .819 OPS, .273 / .328 / .482, 40 HR, 91 R, 119 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Monty Stratton: 10-12, 4.85 ERA. This a stretch, the 4.85 ERA is not that bad in park with 300 HR factor from both sides.

Value Draft Pick
Rd 17 – Mike Jackson: 6-2, 3.74 ERA, 95 IP, 54 K


Overall Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers

World Series Page

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

World Series G4: Johnson weak on short rest + Musial's 3 RBI = DC 4-1 victory

Chips 4, Slam Dumps 1
In a move that will no doubt be second guessed all winter long, down 2 games to 1 the Slam Dumps trotted out Randy Johnson on short rest in Game 4. He lasted 4 innings, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) mostly due to his wildness. Looking fairly effective through four, Johnson walked three in, the 5th, forcing in a run. Stan Musial then doubled to clear the bases, and gave the Chips a 4-1 lead that stood.

Whomever started for Newark would have mattered little, as Whit Wyatt was very effective in shutting down the Slam Dump offense. He tossed 8 innings of 1 run, 5 hit ball, and struck out 7.

The Chips no own a decisive 3-1 series lead. Probable starters for game 6 are two greats: Bobby Ojeda (15-6, 3.09) and Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38).

World Series Page

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

World Series G3: Pen saves DC from poor Shantz start; win 5-3 on cold night

Chips 5, Slam Dumps 4
The DC Chips pen was one of the best in the league during the regular season. On this cold late October night, they proved once again how critical a bullpen can be to success. DC starter Bobby Shantz was chased from the game early, not making it through the 4th inning. On came the trio of Joe Neale, Doc White, and Mariano Rivera to shut down Newark to the tune of 4 hits and 1-run in 5 1/3 innings.

This allowed the Chips offense to extend a slight lead and go on to win 5-3. Rickey Henderson homered and drove in two and Derek Jeter tripled and singled.

World Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #12, Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers

#12 – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers
Owner: Justin P
Activity Level: Moderate
Park Factor: Batters Park

The Beanballers are definitely not a great team, but the poor luck they endured in the regular season cannot be minimized. With 14 fewer wins than their re-sim average, no other team underperformed as much – a full 17% fewer wins than was expected. The main culprit was 2nd rounder King Kelly whose .698 OPS was over 100 points worse than his resim average.

Sill, Justin should not remain blameless. Hooked by lure of the unknown, the Beanballers spent two picks in the first 10 Rounds on 1800s pitchers Denny Driscoll and Candy Cummings. By the end of May, both were released for poor performance. Even without these two in the resims, the Beanballers could only muster the 11th best runs against.

One major bright spot was oft-maligned Mike Schmidt. The third baseman has a long been denounced as an ATB player, with a half dozen owners wasting a draft pick on the power hitter only to be sorely disappointed. This season, even with a new 1981 season eligible, appeared to be no different. Schmidt batted .227 with a .310 on base in the regular season, only marginally better than past years. However, the resims showed he really is a top 10 third basemen, and perhaps even top 5 when considering is Ex/99 defense. Granted, the results are in a home run friendly park, but Schmidt batted .256 / .326 / 467, .793 OPS, 39 HR, 109 RBI and was second on the team in total bases.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 1 – Tip O’Neill: .893 OPS, .337 / .391 / .502, 49 2B, 101 R, 108 RBI
Rd 2 – King Kelly: .807 OPS, .325 / .402 / .405, 26 2B, 94 R

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 4 – Addie Joss: 14-12, 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 221 IP, 101 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Hong Chi Kuo: 2.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 71 IP, 55 K, 31 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 7 – Denny Driscoll: 7.04 ERA, 15 GS, Released
Rd 9 – Candy Cummings: 10.18 ERA, 10 G, Released

Value Draft Pick
Rd 24 – Manny Ramirez: .288 / .354 / .435 in 234 AB platoon


Standings
#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins – Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10
#12, 82 Wins – Bridgewater Brazen Beanballers




World Series Page

Monday, August 8, 2011

World Series G2: Blowout: Musial 2 HR and 5 RBI helps defeat Newark 11-4

Chips 11, Slam Dumps 4
Bill Bernhard looked lost from the moment he took the mound, issuing a walk and back to back home runs in the first to Stan Musial and Todd Helton, putting his Slam Dumps in a 3-0 hole they never recovered from.

It got worse before it improved too. After giving up another run in the second, Bernhard was chased from the game in the third following Musial's second bomb of the night. Tim Keefe came on in relief and struck out the side, but not before three more Chips were plated on two doubles and two singles.

Bobby Ojeda struggled, giving up five hits, two walks, and three runs in 5 innings.

World Series Page

ATB XIII MVP

Mickey Mantle enhanced his reputation as the best all around player in the game by easily outpacing Barry Bonds and Ross Barnes for the ATB XIII MVP.

Mantle was inexplicably left off two ballots, but garnered enough first place votes that it hardly matter. On the season, the Vg center fielder batted .352 / .451 / .528 with 23 HR and 119 RBI.

Accustomed to contending for the MVP year in and year out was Bonds. The left fielder had a great year belting 41 HR's with a .460 OBP.

However the talk in the off season will likely surround neither of these two. Instead, the Ex defending infielder Barnes will receive extreme attention heading into next ATB IV. Barnes batted .361 / .428 / .490 with 38 2B, 21 3B, and 41 SB.

Results
32 Pts - (5, 8) - Mickey Mantle (NSD)
18 Pts - (0, 6) - Barry Bonds (ICB)
16 Pts - (1, 8) - Ross Barnes (LM)
11 Pts - (1, 3) - Babe Ruth (OFB)
06 Pts - (1, 2) - Lou Gehrig (KD)
05 Pts - (1, 1) - Greg Maddux (WPM)
04 Pts - (0, 2) - Fred Dunlap (RKA)
01 Pt. - (0, 1) - Ted Williams (HS)

League Championship Series Page

20 Resims Summary - #13, Planet 10

#13 – Planet 10
Owner: Ivar A
Activity Level: Low
Park Factor: Neutral (High HR, low 1B and 2B)

Even with 7 batters selected in the first 10 Rounds of the draft, Planet 10 was a pitching focused team. Their #1 pick Larry Walker faltered a bit, garnering just a .754 OPS. With Ex defense this is acceptable for a Round 2 or 3 selection, but can’t be justified in Rd 1 in a corner outfielder. Planet was in a tough position with the last pick of the draft, but I think Stan Musial, John McGraw, King Kelly, or even Dan Brouthers may have served this specific team a bit better.

Aside from George Brett in Rd 2, the rest of the lineup was shaky too. With a team OBP of just .320, 2nd worst in the league, their runs scored was near the bottom the league leaders.

Still, thanks to above average pitching, Planet made the playoffs seven times, reach 90 wins, and had a max win potential of 94. Cannonball Titcomb, with another great season, has proven himself an ace lelvel starter. This has to be a point of particular pride for Ivar, as he personally found Cannonball a year ago. Behind the team ace, Kevin Brown and the bullpen had great resims and led the team to the second best strikeout rate in the game.

800 OPS Batters
Rd 2 – George Brett: .830 OPS, .318 / .357 / .473, 21 2B, 15 HR

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Rd 3 – Cannonball Titcomb: 13-12, 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 215 IP, 242 K
Rd 6 – Kevin Brown: 11-13, 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 210 IP, 83 K

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rd 10 – Joe Nathan: 2.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 42 IP, 46 K
Rd 13 – Troy Percival: 2.78 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 43 IP, 40 K, 22 Sv

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Rod Carew: .301 / .345 / .369 at First Base

Value Draft Pick
Rd 28 – Al Hrabosky: 46 IP, 3.25 ERA


#18, 55 Wins – Texas Gringos
#17, 63 Wins – Nottingham Outlaws
#16, 64 Wins – Downsouth Brews
#15, 78 Wins - Willets Point "Mechanics"
#14, 79 Wins – Island Creek Bivalves
#13, 79 Wins – Planet 10

Sunday, August 7, 2011

World Series G1: DC starts reliever Game 1 of World Series; loses 6-4

Slam Dumps 6, Chips 4
With a completely rested rotation, the DC Chips opted to start reliever Pascual Perez in game 1 for the 13th annual World Series. To the surprise of few, Perez struggled giving up 8 hits and 4 runs in three innings. Its sets up the DC rotation quite nicely for the rest of the series but one does wonder if it worth the sacrifice.

For the Slam Dumps, Randy Johnson struggled at times yielding 4 runs on 5 hits in 7 2/3 innings. Shortstop Robin Yount tripled and drove in two while Mickey Mantle singled in two of his own in the 4-run 4th that chased Perez.

Game 2 Probable Starters are the Slam Dumps Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38) vs DC's Bob Ojeda (15-6, 3.09).

World Series Page

Saturday, August 6, 2011

World Series Preview

Beginning Sunday night, the 87-75 DC Chips led by Steve C face off against the 87-75 Newark Slam Dumps. There may be other teams as deserving as these two, but none more so. Both owners are among the most active in the league, and both have had to battle through a tremendous injury strain throughout the regular season and playoffs.

The Chips have dealt with a league leading 290 days lost due to injury, and incredible amount, and 64 more days the team with the second most days lost. The injuries impacted star players too - Ty Cobb (68 days), Todd Helton (58 days), Fergie Jenins (38 days), Stan Musial (21 days), and Mariano Rivera (15 days).

While not as severe as DC, Newark has had their own burden to deal with. To date they have endure 35 different injuries, tops in the league and 17% more than any other team. 28 of these injuries have to been to starters or ace-type relievers.

Head to head this season, DC has taken 4 of 6 from Newark. But who is poised to win a best of seven now?

Starting Pitching
Edge: Newark

The two best starters on either team are Newark's Randy Johnson (12-10, 3.16) and Bill Bernhard (15-7, 3.38). DC counters with a relative unknown with mid-season pickup Bobby Ojeda (15-6, 3.09). The lefty came out of nowhere to have a stellar season, but with no track record it's difficult to know if he's luck or really this good.

During the regular season Newark starters compiled a 4.03 ERA, 5th best in league. DC's era was 7th best, but at 4.33 there's an appreciable difference between the two, especially considering DC plays their home games in a pitchers park, the Astrodome.

Relief Corps
Edge: DC

There is no question the DC bullpen is the better of the two. Joe Neale (213 IP, 2.15 ERA) and Mariano Rivera (2.47 ERA, 147 IP) are now household names synonymous with relief excellence. Doc White (118 IP, 3.42 ERA) adds flexibility as a spot starter or long reliever as well.

Newark counters with just two relievers compiling a regular season ERA below 4.00. Closers Rafael Soriano (3.49 ERA) and Rob Murphy (3.86 ERA) are solid but can be beaten.

Defense
Edge: Newark

Newark's most common lineup features 7 regulars with Vg defense and average fielding ratings significantly better than average. With Mickey Cochrane and is Ex throwing arm, this one of the better defenses in the game.

DC's defense is bit more haphazard. They feature Ex ranges in first an center, but just average defense at short and third, and routinely play Ty Cobb (Vg/80) out of position in right field. With an unimpressive starting catcher arm they are a little behind Newark in general ability.

Offense
Edge: Newark

Newark scored 858 runs, DC just 708. This is the largest advantage for Newark in any facet of the game. Led by Mickey Mantle (.980 OPS), eight regulars have OPS scores above .750 and as a team, the Slam Dumps have hit 126 home runs.

DC's lineup sports just three regulars with an OPS over .750 and have hit 95 home runs. As a team they are batting .257 / .323 / .360 which has led them to the third worst offense in the game.

Commish Predicton
Newark in 6. The Slam Dumps are the better team. Their run differential was +130 in the regular season, more than five times better than the Chips +23. In order for DC to win a short series, Bobby Ojeda must start well in three games, a tall order.

The wild card for both teams is the rotation. For now at least, it appears Steve and Sean will employ 3-man rotations throughout the World Series and starting on short rest can be very unpredictable. DC can win the title, but Newark should win it.

The World Series page is up an running.

LCS Game 6: Robinson, Mize send Newark on to face DC; win 5-3

Slam Dumps 5, Kakadu 3
In a hard fought game, the Slam Dumps narrowly outplayed Kakadu and head the World Series on a 5-3 victory. First Basemen Johnny Mize singled home runners in the 2nd and 8th innings, and Frank Robinson added a double and a home run to the Newark cause.

Teddy Higuera pitched well for the win, lasting 6 innings giving up 4 hits and a run. Huston Street struggled out of the pen, but Rob Murphy and Rafael Soriano nailed down the final 5-outs for the win.

Series MVP is Rafael Soriano. This was a difficult call, but the closer shut down the Didgeridoos on three different occasions, recording the save in each.

League Championship Series Page

Thursday, August 4, 2011

LCS Game 5: Kakadu stays alive with 9-3 throttling of Newark

Didgeridoos 9, Slam Dumps 3
The bottom of the Didgeridoo order did all the damage tonight, collecting 9 hits and 9 RBI in the easy win over Newark. Garland Braxton was strong for the win - a complete game 6 hitter.

With the game tied at two, the fifth opened with two walks, a triple, and a sac fly. Two inning later Roy Campanella hit a 2-run shot to cap a four run inning.

The series heads back to Kakadu for games 6 and 7. With Randy Johnson slated for game 7, it would seem Kakadu needs to win tomorrow against Teddy Higuera.


League Championship Series Page

LCS Game 5: Blowout: DC heads to the World Series with 11-1 win

Chips 11, Gossamer's 1
Despite just about as many hits, the Gossamer's scored just 1 run against the Chips 11 and DC heads to the show with 4-1 series win.

Gossamer star pitcher Pedro Martinez was shelled, leaving the game with 1-out in second after giving up 6 earned runs. After recording his first out, Martinez yielded 4 consecutive singles followed by two walks. With three runs in, the Gossamer's turned to their pen, but Arthur Rhodes surrendered a two run double to Ty Cobb and a sac fly to Willie Mays. When the dust settle 6 runs had scored and the game was virtually over.

Lefty Grove and the DC pen allowed plenty of runners to reach the bases, but recorded the key outs when they needed to stranding 12 on base.

DC moves on and will face the winner of the Newark-Kakadu series in the world series.

League Championship Series Page

ATB XIII Cy Young Award

Unlike reliever of the year, the Cy Young award was never in doubt. Greg Maddux posted the best season we've seen in thirteen years of ATB and swept all first place votes. He set a new record for regular season wins and even received a vote for the MVP. His final line is memorable: 23-3, 1.92 ERA, 262 IP, 160 K, 1.06 WHIP, 2.20 ERA.

No slouch, Pedro Martinez swept all second place votes and under normal circumstances could have won the award himself: 22-7, 2.63 ERA, 260 IP, 268 K, 1.00 WHIP, 2.44 ERA

50 Pts (10,10) - Greg Maddux (WPM)
30 Pts (0, 10) - Pedro Martinez (GCG)
03 Pts (0, 3) - Ben Sanders (BDL)
02 Pts (0, 2) - Scott Stratton (GCG)
02 Pts (0, 2) - Bill Bernhard (NSD)
01 Pt. (0, 1) - Mariano Rivera (DC)
01 Pt. (0, 1) - Joe Neale (DC)
01 Pt. (0, 1) - Cannonball Titcomb (P10)

League Championship Series Page