Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Best Single Season Re-Sim Offense and Pitching Staff

In Sim 9, the Otherton Fish Biscuits let up only 541 runs with this pitching staff:

Other teams that came closer were the DC Chips (545) and Planet 10 (543)

In Sim 12, the Neanderthals scored 935 runs with this offense (2nd place was Fanclub with 927 runs):

Resim Power Alley: 4th through 1st

4th - Windy City Potato Pocketers (HC- It Might Be)
Owners: Lou Poulas
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 95/111
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 105/81
Avg RD: +137
Playoffs: 17 (6 Div Title)
MWP: 119

The "best" regular season team turns out to be of Top-5 quality only. Windy City had one of the best first halves in ATB history and when play ended on July 16, were on pace for a 120 win season. The second half was by no means poor, but the team fell off their pace to finish at 111. In truth, they were more like a 95 win team than anything approaching 100 wins let alone 110.

An average of 95 wins is still great of course. In 18 of the 20 seasons the team won at least 88 times and five times finished with 100 or more wins. They are our first team with a 200+ RD and never once finished with an RD below 39.

3rd - White Meadow Lake Black Stones (VS- It Gets By Buckner)
Owners: Mike Smitko
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 97/91
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 101/76
Avg RD: +115
Playoffs: 18 (15 Div Title)
MWP: 111

Head to Head is our 3rd place team truly better than our 4th? Likely not (Less wins, RD, MWP, etc) but they won an incredible 15 of 20 division titles, which goes a long way towards the ultimate goal of any fantasy league - winning the World Championship.

This team over performed in the regular season, winning 6 more games than can be expected. Their pitching staff was a little worse than the regular season showed (7% fewer runs given up) and a little better with the stick (8% more runs scored).

Only once in their 5 seasons without a division title did they fall short by more than 5 games, and in the other 4 they were within a combined 4 games of a tie.

Here's the title view of the division, now complete:

2nd - Bellevue Freakin Franchise (HC- It Could Be)
Owners: Brad Peterson
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 106/98
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 113/88
Avg RD: +166
Playoffs: 20 (19 Div Title)
MWP: 120

Well, this is what a season is all about:
  • Winning the world series
  • Averaging 98 re-sim wins
  • Sporting the best MWP in the league at 120
  • Winning the most single season re-sim wins at 113
Belleveue completely and totally dominated the Haray Carray "It could Be" Division, making the playoffs in all 20- re-sims and winning the division 19 times. In their one loss they even had a better team than Duke Street, losing by 2 games, but besting their rivals 127 to 73 in RD.

Congrats Brad - job well done.

1st - La Chapelle-aux-Saints Neanderthals (HC- It Might Be)
Owners: Justin Petronzi
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 96/103
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 110/94
Avg RD: +210
Playoffs: 20 (13 Div Title)
MWP: 119

And yet, there is a better team out there than Bellevue. The Neanderthal success in the re-sims is off the charts. The team averaged 103 wins; 85% of the teams in the league didn't win that many in their single best re-sim season. They actually won 110 or more games an incredible 15 times and at least 105 seven times.

We could go on for quite some time, but will leave with a two mesmerizing bullets. The team:
  • Never once had an RD below 145 (!)
  • Had an RD over 200 on eleven occasions, 4 more times than the rest of the league combined (!)

Resim Power Alley: 8th through 5th

8th - Helena Handbasket (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owners: Joe Terry
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 88/86
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 95/75

Avg RD: +46
Playoffs: 12 (4 Div Titles)
MWP: 102

Considered a fluke during the regular season because of their -7 run differential, Helena answered the naysayers with a very good showing during the Re-Sims. Our World Series runner-up finishes just inside the Top 10 after nine 85+ win seasons, six of which ended up being 90+.

During the ATB season, their offense underwhelmed by a considerable margin - 61 runs or 8% - leading to their negative RD.

In Sim 6, they finished in a 3-way tie for the division lead, matching both White Meadow Lake and I MIss Rod Beck with 86 wins. Thanks to their stellar +61 RD, they bested Rod Beck in the tie breaker for a Wild Card Birth, but lost out to White Meadow who had the best RD in the league at 182.

7th - Planet 10 (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: Ivar Anderson
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 88/88
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 107/88

Avg RD: +73
Playoffs: 9 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 115

One way Power Alley differentiates the 24 teams is by Max Win Potential, and Planet 10 is our first to have an elite MWP record. Their 13 win lead over Helena in wins also serves as a clear delineating factor between the two squads.

Planet 10 exactly matched their regular season win total of 88 games, but often played in the shadows of other during the re-sims. Eight times they won 90 or more games, and it took an incredible sim 14 win total of 107 to secure their one and only division lead.

A fun but meaningless stat - below are the average win totals of the division winners during the re-sims:

104 - HC, It Might Be
98 - HC, It Could Be
95 - VS, Behind the Bag
93 - VS, It Gets by Buckner

It took a lot to win in "It Might Be".

6th - John McDonald Fanclub (VS- Behind the Bag)
Owners: Jason Bernardon
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 109/88
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 104/77

Avg RD: +71
Playoffs: 9 (5 Div Title)
MWP: 111

In the last post we saw that Rusty Kuntz lost the most value with their poor regular season showing compared to the re-sim records, and now we see that no other team gained as much John McDonald. Victorious 109 times, second best in the regular season, Fanclub never once approached that same win total in the 20 re-sims. In Fact, they averaged "just" 88 wins and bested 100 twice.

Having compiled at least a +100 RD seven times, they are still a very good team though, and much more often then not were in the thick of a playoff race at the end of each season.

Only three times did they finish below .500.

5th - DC Chips (VS- Behind the Bag)
Owners: Steve Chippendale
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 88/90
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 100/80
Avg RD: +94
Playoffs: 13 (9 Div Title)
MWP: 119

The DC Chips are the first team to average 90 wins per season and therefore the first team to be tagged with the "great' moniker. They reached that win plateau 12 times and had a positive RD over 140 five times. Though winning 100 games only in Sim 18, they were routinely the best team in "Behind the Bag" and challenged for the best record in all of Vin Scully.

Their Max Win Potential is among the very best in the entire league. In sim 14 they scored 828 runs and in sim 18 yielded just 545 for an RD of +283.

Ranking DC completes our first division. The behind the bag playoff picture is as follows:

It's been a while since I have had a chance to continue the Re-sim Power Alley write-ups and thought I'd list the ranked teams we've reviewed to date:
  • Truly Awful (Average of 55 or less wins): Hey Howarya (24th), Downsouth Brews (23rd)
  • Awful (60-69 wins): Wedge Tornado (22nd)
  • Bad (70-78 wins): Bucky Dents Middle Name (21st), Cincinnati Redlegs (20th), I Miss Rod Beck (19th), Warning Track Power (18th)
  • About .500 (79-83 wins): Potomac Rage (17th), Willets Point Mechanics (16th), Old Pete's Rabble (15th), Edinburgh Caber Tossers (14th), Chi-Town Black Sox (13th), Otherton Fish Biscuits (12th), Duke Street Kings (11th)
  • Good (84-89 Wins): Rochester Beau Brummels (10th), Rusty Kuntz Travelling All Stars (9th), Helena Handbasket (8th), Planet 10 (7th), John McDonald Fanclub (6th)
  • Great (90-95 Wins) - DC Chips (5th), ???
  • Elite (96+ Wins) - ???

Resim Power Alley: 12th through 9th

12th - Otherton Fish Biscuits (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Brian Barnes
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 70/83
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 89/77

Avg RD: +20
Playoffs: 4
MWP: 100

Barnes' Biscuits underachieved more than any other ATB team during the regular season, falling short of their re-sim average by 13 games and their maximum re-sim win total by 19 games. They were also the most consistent re-sim team with a spread of just 12 games between the best and worst win totals.

No doubt, the regular season gamble on a 3-man rotation was an utter failure and the direct cause for their low win totals. The correction to 4-man came too late in the season to be of any impact and should serve as a warning to any future owner wishing to go down the path of running new starters out every 3rd day.

In 15 of 20 seasons, the Fishbiscuit's sported a .500 record or better, twice capping at 89. They were a wild card representative of the VS four times.

11th - Duke Street Kings (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: Jeff Burns
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 81/83
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/69

Avg RD: +33
Playoffs: 5 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 103

The first of our upper half teams, Duke Street was very solid winning 90 or more games 5 times, and 85 or more games 8 times. Flaws were apparent of course - the team failed to maintain a .500 season six times as well.

In re-sim 10 they won the division title by 2 games and made the playoffs 4 other times as a Wild Card. Their 103 Max Win Potential is tied with Potomac for the best we seen to date - 854 runs from Sim 5 combined with 688 Runs Against from Sim 9.

10th - Rochester Beau Brummels (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Leanne Sarubi
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 85/87
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 104/68

Avg RD: +33
Playoffs: 8 (2 Div Title)
MWP: 103

What do we make of the Beau Brummels, our first female owned team in ATB history. One one hand they are five time 90+ win team, capping off at 104 wins in Sim 2. On the other, they also failed to reach .500 five times, the worst of which was in Sim 4 when they were outscored by 115 runs en route to a 68-94 season.

They finish ranked 10th in large part due to their 8 playoff births but I am not certain I wouldn't rather owning Duke Street, a similar team in terms of win potential but more consistent across the board.

Rochester is the first squad to surpass 100 wins in any of the 20 re-sims.

9th - Rusty Kuntz Travelling All Stars (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Shotgun Spratling
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/86
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 97/77

Avg RD: +47
Playoffs: 11 (4 Div Title)
MWP: 103

The Travelling All Stars are the most disappointing team of the season when considering the magnitude of their ATB failure. They won just 75 regular season games with a -16 Run Differential and were well out of any playoff contention. During their worst re-sim, they still managed 77 wins meaning ATB XI could be considered their 21st worst season out of all of them. Bad, bad luck.

What could have been? Across the 20 re-sims Rusty Kuntz owns 4 division titles and 7 more wild card births; they won 85+ games thirteen times; only three times did their RD sink below zero.

This was a good team that had an awful regular season.

It's been a while since I have had a chance to continue the Re-sim Power Alley writeups and thought I'd list the ranked teams we've reviewed to date:
  • Truly Awful (Average of 55 or less wins): Hey Howarya (24th), Downsouth Brews (23rd)
  • Awful (60-69 wins): Wedge Tornado (22nd)
  • Bad (70-78 wins): Bucky Dents Middle Name (21st), Cincinnati Redlegs (20th), I Miss Rod Beck (19th), Warning Track Power (18th)
  • About .500 (79-83 wins): Potomac Rage (17th), Willets Point Mechanics (16th), Old Pete's Rabble (15th), Edinburgh Caber Tossers (14th), Chi-Town Black Sox (13th), Otherton Fish Biscuits (12th), Duke Street Kings (11th)

Thursday, September 3, 2009

All Time ATB Managerial Records

I struggle with all time owner rankings because I can't tell where the divide should be. I feel strongly that owners who have played for years should be ranked higher than some of those with just a few seasons, but how best to do that?

Best case to illustrate. TJO has played 11 seasons with an 861-917 record (.484 Wpct). Should he be ranked better that Steve C who has a .620 win percentage in two seasons? You got me.

I made the cut-off for major penalty at 2 or less seasons. Each teams rank takes into consideration:
  • Career Winning Percentage
  • Season High Winning Percentage
  • Playoff Appearances
  • World Series Titles
  • Minor penalty for under 4 or 6 seasons played (out of 11)
  • Moderate penalty for 3 seasons played
  • Major penalty for 2 seasons played
  • Critical Penalty for 1 season played (no one time can be ranked higher than anyone with more than 1 season under their belt)
Hope it is fair. Top 10 below, complete list with records here.

1) 642 Pts - Lou Poulas
2) 637 Pts - Justin Petronzi
3) 627 Pts - Mike Smitko
4) 572 Pts - Sean Seeley
5) 567 Pts - Brad Peterson
6) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski
7) 528 Pts - TJ Olszewski
8) 524 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter
9) 518 Pts - Steve Chippendale
10) 513 Pts - Jason Bernarndon
11) 502 Pts - Jeff Burns
12) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas
13) 473 Pts - Jay Seeley
14) 460 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein
15) 422 Pts - Joe Terry
16) 421 Pts - Kevin Crowley
17) 417 Pts - Ivar Anderson
18) 415 Pts - Michael Rippe
19) 380 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh
20) 380 Pts - Matt Brody

Game 7 Recap

Don't mind the grammer......

The Fans have voted and Game 7 of the ATB XI World Series was indeed the greatest game in our league’s history.

Drama? Helena, the beloved underdog, trying to win their first every World Championship.
More Drama? Bellevue came back from a 3-0 series deficit in the LCS, and was now trying to come back from a 3-1 deficit.
Did I Say Drama? Dude, it’s Game 7!
Clutch Hitting? Uh, there were:

- 7 lead changes or new ties
- Not one, not two, but three game changing home runs in the 8th inning or later
- SIXTEEN runs scored after the 8th inning
- 38 total hits.

What about the pitchers you say? Shut-out innings from the Top 2nd through Top of the 8th, all with the game in the balance 3-2. For the heck of it, let’s add on incredible double plays and a bases loaded no-out situation where nobody scored. Baseball heaven.

Plus, we broadcast live making the anticipation all but unbearable.

It is not possible to write this up properly, so I must stick to the highlights (and low-lights).

1st Inning (3-1 Helena)
- Aaron hits a one out 3-run bomb to open the scoring
- A 2-out rally plates one for Bellevue. Key blows are a Sam Thompson double and a run scoring Tommy Holmes scoring single

2nd Inning (3-2 Helena)
- 2 strikeouts against Helena in Top of innings
- Another Bellevue 2-out rally. HBP for Scott Rolen after running the count 3-0, followed by two singles from Hughie Jennings and Nap Lajoie. 1 run scores, and after a walk, Bellevue left the bases loaded.

3rd Inning (3-2 Helena)
- BFF starter Allan Anderson yanked after walking Freddie Lindstrom to open the frame. Three easy outs recorded by Rob Murphy in relief. Murphy was key, giving up no runs and only yielding to another member of the BFF pen to start the 6th .
- HBP for the Franchise, but no threat.

4th inning (3-2 Helena)
- Helena gets runners at first and second with no-outs only two squander the opportunity with a strikeout and Pete Resier ground-out double play.
- Franchise almost duplicates the feat, by getting runners on 1st and 2nd with 1-out, but Sam Thompson grounds into a double play of his own.

5th Inning (3-2 Helena)
- Stan Musial triples with 2-outs but Albert Pujols couldn’t come through, weakly grounding out to short.
- Tommy Holmes singles with 1-out, steals second, but Helena starter Derek Lowe buckles down and retires the side.

6th Inning (3-2 Helena)
- Steve Reed now in for BFF, but only gives up a 1-out walk to Magglio Ordonez
- Terrible, terrible inning for BFF. Derek Lee singles to start the innings, Rolen follows with another, and famous Hughie Jennings gets plunked. Bases loaded no-outs, in the middle innings of Game 7. You gotta score right? Nope. Nap Lajoie flies out to right, but Lee wont’ run on Aaron’s arm and then Sam Thompson grounds into ANOTHER inning ending double play with runners in scoring position.

7th Inning (3-2 Helena)
- Can you feel the Helena faithful praying for an insurance run? Bellevue has put runners all over the place all evening, but to little avail. Arthur Rhodes comes in for Reed and gives up a 2-out single to Freddie Lindstrom but nothing else.
- Does Bellevue have any life in them after the horrid 6th? Nope – a 2-out single by Campy is all they get.

Top of 8th inning (4-2 Helena)
- The insurance run! Pujols leads off with a single; Hank Aaron gets on thanks to a fielding error by Rhodes. Another killer double play shuts down the chance at a big inning, but Ordonez at least gets Pujols to 3rd with 2-outs. Cal Ripken comes through in the clutch with a single to right to make the score 4-2.

Bottom of the 8th (6-4 Bellevue)
- How Helena ever came back from this is beyond me. Derrek Lee singled and 1-out later, Pujols boots a ball putting runners on 1st and second. Lajoie follows with a seeing eye single up the middle, but Lee can’t score and the bases are loaded with 1-out. Joel Hoerner comes in to pitch and gives up a Sac Fly to Sam Thompson, making the score 4-3.
- With 2-outs the game is still in hand, but Oscar Charleston drills a 1-0 fastball over the right field fence. 3-runs score, 6-4 Bellevue.

Top of the 9th (8-6 Helena)
- Somehow, someway, Helena comes back. Against the BFF closer Armando Benitez no less.
- Pete Reiser walked followed by a Frank Robinson single. Earl Averill pinch hits for Freddie Lindstrom and singles to left, loading the bases.
- Stan Musial plasters a ball to deep right, a Top o’ the ninth game changing grand slam.
- Brandon Webb comes in relief and retires the side in order.

Bottom of the 9th (8-8 tie)
- They won’t go away!
- Against the feared Robb Nen, Campy reaches on a single to lead off the inning.
- Nen follows up with 2-strikeouts. Bottom of the 9th, 2-out, best pitcher on the mound with a 2-run lead.
- Lofton singles. Johnny Mize comes off the bench and triples, plating 2 and tying the game.

10th Inning (8-8 tie)
- One walk between both teams, nothing else but outs.

Top of 11th inning (10-8 Helena)
- Baker double, Musial 4 pitch walk, and a Pujols single load the bases with no outs.
- Uh oh
- Hank Aaron strikes again, this time a 2-run single to center.
- Ordonez grounds into another double play for the 1st and 2nd outs, leaving Pujols at third.
- Gil McDougald walks but Johnny Bassler grounds out to third to end the inning.

Bottom of the 11th (10-10 tie)
- Yet another comeback. At this point, it is almost expected it is so absurd
- Campy singles and 1-out later Lee homers down the right field line on 3-1 fastball.

Top of the 12th (10-10 tie)
- Reiser battles in an 8 pitch at bat but grounds out. Robinson and Baker follow suit with ground outs of their own.

Bottom of the 12th (11-10 Bellevue Win)
- Lajoie lines an opening single, but gets caught stealing!
- No matter, Sam Thompson singles. O-Charles singles. Bedrosian enters in relieve but walks the bases loaded.
- Roy Campanella comes to the plate with 3 hits in 6 at bats and delivers. A squeaker between first and second and Bellevue Wins!

Amazing stuff.
398 pitches
38 hits
29 batters
25 left on base
21 runs
18 pitchers
11 strike outs
5 double plays
3 holds
3 blown saves (!)

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The Greatest Game Ever Played?

Writeup tomorrow, just the box score tonight. Joe T of Helena watched live - I can't ever recall a game like this. Check out the box score here.

The 20 Faces of Pedro Martinez

Chart only, interesting for sure

The 20 Faces of Babe Ruth

Bar none, Babe Ruth is the best player in ATB history. He is the undisputed 1st Round Pick of choice and year in and year out wins the MVP - well, almost. There have been a few non-Ruth MVP's, especially prior to the two league format. Point being, he's the consensus best player out there.

You can still be burned by him though. Here's his best and worst for a few statistics in the 20 sims.

Now, the chart is unfair as it portrays there is an equal chance of 36 HR or 66 HR, and that just isn't the case. Still, it is worth noting that down years happen to the best of them.

Here are those same stats for every season:

Please note, these are not stat lines. Each column is sorted individually from worst to best.

Game 7 Live Tonight!

10:30 PM Eastern! Post here or send email to alltimebaseball@yahoo.com if interested in watching.

Re-Sim All Stars - Harry Cary Pitching Staff

Sp 1) Greg Maddux - P10 (Yr15)
Sp 2) Lady Baldwin* - JuP (Yr4)
Sp 3) Al Orth - JuP (Yr10)
Sp 4) Babe Adams - WPP (Yr10)
Sp 5) Garland Braxton* - OPR (Yr5)

LR) Nolan Ryan - OPR (Yr2)
Se R) Joe Neale - WPP (Yr11)
Se L) Rob Murphy* - BFF (Yr8)
Cl 1) Jonathan Papelbon - CR (Yr3)
Cl 2) Dennis Eckersley - WPM (Yr11)

Single Season Leaders
W: .- 26, Greg Maddux Yr 13, P10

ERA - 1.70, Greg Maddux Yr 15, P10
QS: - 31,
Greg Maddux Yr 7, P10
Wpct: 22-2, Lady Baldwin Yr 13, Jup

CG: - 22,
Lady Baldwin Yr 3, Jup
ShO:- 9, Lady Baldwin Yr 3, Jup
ShO:- 9, Greg Maddux Yr 2, P10
SO: - 314, Lady Baldwin Yr 11, Jup
RCERA-1.80, Greg Maddux Yr 15, P10
Greg Maddux Yr 15, P10

Re-Sim All Stars - Vin Scully Pitching Staff

Sp 1) Pedro Martinez - WTP (Yr17)
Sp 2) Lefty Grove* - OFB (Yr7)
Sp 3) Walter Johnson - CBS (Yr16)
Sp 4) Bill Bernhard - WMB (Yr12)
Sp 5) Tex Hughson - OFB (Yr17)

LR) Jeff Zimmerman - DCC (Yr5)
Se R) Bryan Harvey - WMB (Yr7)
Se L) Frank Killen* - OFB (Yr9)
Cl 1) Kent Tekulve - JMF (Yr4)
Cl 2) Cla Meredith - WMB (Yr3)

Single Season Leaders
W: .- 25, Lefty Grove Yr 7, OFB

ERA - 1.82, Pedro Martinez Yr 17, WTP
QS: - 34, Lefty Grove Yr 15, OFB

Wpct: 21-3, Pedro Martinez, Yr 4, WTP

CG: - 17, Bill Bernhard Yr 11, WMB

ShO:- 9, Pedro Martinez Yr 16, WTP
SO: - 289, Pedro Martinez Yr, 19, WTP

RCERA-1.84, Pedro Martinez Yr 17, WTP

WHIP:-0.85, Pedro Martinez Yr 17, WTP

Post Season Awards - MVP

Vin Scully
In a no-brainer, Babe Ruth handily wins the Vin Scully MVP while Barry Bonds takes an easy second. Both were the best offensive talents in the league and by a wide margin. While Bonds is a better player than all others save Ruth, he didn't sweep the second place votes mainly because his team didn't challenge for a playoff spot. Dick Allen and Tris Speaker for instance were playing meaningful games (gotta love that phrase Omar!) the last week of the season and the voters found it important.

Still, one has to wonder why Allen received a first place vote. Ruth was the far superior player in every single major offensive statistic and Allen was one of three standouts in the John McDonald lineup. Hard to make a case he was the Most Valuable Player in the entire league.

Harry Caray
Ted Williams narrowly carries the vote in the HC. Personally, I don't agree with this but can't really argue with the results too much. Williams is definitely the best player in the league but I have a difficult time convincing myself he was more valuable the Tip O'Neill. Take a look at these statistics, O'neil bests Williams in:

RC: 159 to 117
RB: 390 to 255
H: 260 to 150
2B: 51 to 15
3B: 30 to 0
R: 124 to 89
SB: 41 to 0

Plus he had similar RBI totals, just "losing" 95 to 90. The cause for the difference? Playing time - Williams missed approximately 6 weeks of the season which must be considered.

Mickey Mantle was the clear 3rd place choice with Jeff Bagwell and Lou Gehrig garnering minimal interest.

Resim Power Alley: 16th through 13th

16th - Willets Point Mechanics (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: Matt Brody
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 72/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/67

Avg RD: -8
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 98

With 72 regular season wins, these re-sims must be bittersweet for owner Matt Brody. In ATB XI the Mechanics sported a -97 run differential, a figure the team sunk to only once in all of the 20 re-sims. In short, ATB XI was about as unlucky of a season Willets Point could have suffered through. They underperformed in Win total (-11%), Runs Scored (-8%), and Runs Against (-4%).

There true level of talent is almost exactly a .500 team - 81 wins a minus-8 run differential.

15th - Old Pete's Rabble (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: PC, Grrrr
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/82
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 92/72

Avg RD: 0
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 99

Here's the computer team that finished above .500 in 11 of the re-sims. Their early round picks were deferred to later in the draft as we searched for an owner too - what might have been.

14th - Edinburgh Caber Tossers (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: TJ Olszewski
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 85/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/72

Avg RD: -20
Playoffs: 4
MWP: 99

We've gone through 9 teams and now encounter our first team that outperformed it's 20-resim average. I really don't know why that is, but there has to be something too it - nine in a row is too much for coincidence. Why would all the lower ranked teams play even worse in the regular season than the re-sims?

TJ led his squad to 85 wins and at the end of August actually had the wild card lead before trailing off quickly, ultimately losing the last WC slot to Planet 10. This was a clear over achievement that normally this can be attributed to a hands on computer manager, but in this case TJ had limited time and made few lineup adjustments.

In terms of Run Differential, the team outperformed the re-sim average by 70 runs, third highest of any team. Overall during the re-sims, Edinbrugh averaged an RD of -20. They fair well in the rankings, at least when compared with the bottom ranked teams, because their upside was fairly high - they won 87 or more games six times, made the playoffs 4 times, and had a solid max win potential of 99.

13th - Chi Town Black Sox (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owners: Mike Thannasides, Zach Bernstein
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 80/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 92/70

Avg RD: +6
Playoffs: 3 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 97

What immediately comes to mind with Chi-Town is figuring out an explanation as to why their pitching staff let up 57 fewer runs in the regular season. Their total Runs Against of 680 is easily better then each of the RA values in the re-sims, with just season six approaching, but not close to equalling, that level of success. Likely just another reason that 20 sims truly isn't enough to be completely accurate on team skill.

The first division winner we've come across, with an 86-76 record in season 18 the Black Sox took advantage of an across the board down season in "It Gets by Buckner" to narrowly edge Helena by 2 games. Their best record came the re-sim prior, but even with 92 wins fell short of the division lead by 4 games though they did secure a playoff birth via the wild card.

Chi-Town finished with a positive RD and 80 ore more wins 12 of 20 times. Their max win potential of 97 is a bit on short side considering the 92 win season under their belt, but the combination of a division title, and overall net positive RD boosted their score.

Monday, August 31, 2009

World Series Games 3 & 4 Complete


One on the brink!

Re-Sim All Star Teams - Vin Scully Batters

1) 3B, John McGraw* - RBB (Yr5)
2) CF, Hugh Duffy - DB (Yr18)
3) RF, Babe Ruth* - RBB (Yr14)
4) LF, Barry Bonds* - RKA (Yr9)
5) DH, Stan Musial* - HH (Yr10)
6) 2B, Rogers Hornsby - BDM (Yr10)
7) 1B, Willie McCovey* - JMF (Yr11)
8) C, Mickey Cochrane* - JMF (Yr7)
9) SS, Honus Wagner - JMF (Yr11)

Bnch - OF, Benny Kauff* - WMB (Yr4)
Bnch - OF, Willie Keeler* - RBB (Yr1)
Bnch - IF, Fred Dunlap - WMB (Yr17)
Bnch - C, King Kelly - CBS (Yr2)
Bnch - CI, Jason Giambi* - WMB (Yr8)
Bnch - CI, Mark McGwire - WMB (Yr2)

Single Season Leaders
AVG - .391, Willie Keeler Yr 1, RBB
OBP - .510, Babe Ruth Yr 13, RBB
SLG - .758, Babe Ruth Yr 14, RBB
OPS - 1.264, Babe Ruth Yr 14, RBB
2B .- 58, Honus Wagner Yr 14, JMF
3B .- 24, Honus Wagner Yrs 11 & 20, JMF
3B .- 24, Mike Tiernan Yr 16, CBS
HR .- 66, Babe Ruth Yr 7, RBB
R ..- 153, John McGraw Yr 19, RBB
RBI - 167, Babe Ruth Yr 10, RBB
RC .- 206, Babe Ruth Yr 14, RBB
SB .- 126, Billy Hamilton Yr 4, WTP

Re-Sim All Star Teams - Harry Caray Batters

At time permits I will be releasing the Re-Sim All Star teams. These are the best single season performances during the 20 re-sims, all-star's are not nominated for their aggregrate performance.

Here's the single season greatest performances from Harry Caray batters.

1) DH, Tip O'Neill - ECT (Yr9)
2) SS, Arky Vaughan* - WPM (Yr16)
3) LF, Ted Williams* - JuP (Yr12)
4) 1B, Lou Gehrig* - CR (Yr1)
5) CF, Mickey Mantle# - DSK (Yr16)
6) RF, Larry Walker* - P10 (Yr7)
7) C, Bill Dickey* - WPP (Yr13)
8) 3B, Eddie Mathews* - P10 (Yr20)
9) 2B, Nap Lajoie - BFF (Yr11)

Bnch - OF, Ty Cobb* - WPP (Yr12)
Bnch - OF, Sam Thompson* - BFF (Yr19)
Bnch - IF, Joe Morgan* - PR (Yr4)
Bnch - IF, Hughie Jennings - BFF (Yr6)
Bnch - C, Josh Gibson - JuP (Yr1)
Bnch - CI, Jeff Bagwell - WPP (Yr2)

Single Season Leaders
AVG - .375, Ted Williams Yr 12, JuP
OBP - .488, Ted Williams Yr 5, JuP
SLG - .670, Lou Gehrig Yr 1, CR
OPS - 1.093, Lou Gehrig Yr 1, CR
2B .- 63, Tip O'Neil Yr 15, ECT
3B .- 30, Sam Thompson Yr 18, BFF
HR .- 54, Jeff Bagwell Yr 2, WPP
R ..- 136, Mickey Mantle Yr's 4 & 10, DSK
R ..- 136, Joe Morgan Yr 4, PR
RBI - 172 Jeff Bagwell Yr's 2 & 11, WPP
RC .- 184.4, Ted Williams Yr 12, JuP
SB .- 114, Joe Morgan Yr 4, PR

Sunday, August 30, 2009

World Series Games 1 & 2 Complete!


Resim Power Alley: 20th through 17th

2oth - Cincinnati Redlegs (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: Steve Gray, Tommy Bligh
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 72/76
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 86/65

Avg RD: -52
Playoffs: 0
MWP: 100

Averaging the same number or re-sim wins as the 21st place Middle Name, the Redlegs have an advantage in run differential and the Power Alley formula therefore favors them slightly. This team played fairly close to expected in the regular season falling short by 4 games, and very close in terms of run differential, only 19 runs short.

20 re-sim seasons seems like a lot, but 100 would be best if there was unlimited times to do these types of studies. This is important, take a look at Cincinnati's win totals when grouped by quarters:

72 - Yrs 1-5
73 - Yrs 6-10
76 - Yrs 11-15
80 - Yrs 16-20

Which is more indicative of their true level of play?

19th - I Miss Rod Beck (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owners: Johnny Kondovski
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 81/77
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 86/66

Avg RD: -37
Playoffs: 0
MWP: 95

I won't pretend the Power Alley formula is really good enough to separate these last three teams. All three had Max wins between 88 or 86; all three had Min Wins of 65 or 66; and all three averaged either 75 or 76 Re-Sim wins per season. Power Alley basically then leaves it up to Run Differential and in ascending order

-70: BDM
-52: CR
-37: IMR

I Miss Rod Beck comes out as the best of these three teams of virtual identical quality.

One interesting item that does distinguish Rod Beck from the others - in re-sim #6 they won their division, but missed the playoffs. Would have been fun to watch unfold as the year featured a 3-way tie between Rod Beck, White Meadow, and Helena. All three teams won 86 games and our re-sim tie breaker rules look to the best Run Differential. Rod Beck was at -21 while the other two at +182 and +61 respectively. Rod Beck was out.

They also missed out on the Wild Card as there was also a two-way tie atop "Behind the Bag". Both DC and John McDonald won 93 a piece, leaving Rod Beck as the odd man out of the playoffs, despite a "Division Title".

18th - Warning Track Power (VS - Behind the Bag)
Owners: Kevin Crowley
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/78
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 89/65

Avg RD: -58
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 95

Our first playoff bound franchise!

Warning Track isn't appreciably better than the 19th through 21st ranked teams, but they did make it to the post season twice, a Power Alley key statistic. In Sim 4 the held the tie breaker against John McDonald for the last Wild Card Slot, and in Sim 5 held the last slot outright.

Overall though, this was a below average team that was outscored in 17 of their 20 re-sims, and in the regular season played almost exactly as expected. They played within 3 games of their re-sim average, had virtually identical Runs Scored, and came up short in Runs Allowed by just 3%.

17th - Potomac Rage (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: Jay Hatem (Ji)
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 77/80
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 90/68

Avg RD: +2
Playoffs: 1
MWP: 103

And now we have our first team with a positive RD. The Rage was at its best in Sim's 5 & 12 winning 89 and 90 games respectively, and claimed a post-season birth in sim 12 with a 3rd place finish.

In sim 1 they scored 863 times and in Sim 5 allowed opponents to score 693 times for a Maximum Win Potential of 103 games. The scored 863 runs twice in the 20-sim history but never again approached their team best in run prevention.

Just twice did the Rage finish within 15 games of first place in "It Might Be".

POSTSCRIPT - Another stat to show how bad HEY HOWARYA was - in Sim 14 they finished an astounding 73 games out of first. Yikes!

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Resim Power Alley: 24th through 21st

I finished compiling the 20 resim results and will slowly, as time permits unfortunately, roll out the results. First up, as to not taint any World Series data by releasing player specific details, is a summary of all the teams and how they did.

I tired something new and created Power Alley Rankings based upon re-sim data. The rankings take into consideration the average number of Wins, Average Run Differential, Total Number of Division Titles, and Total Number of playoff appearances for each team.

Along with rankings for each each team I'll publish a few stats as well, and all but one is common sense and needs no introduction. I created something called Max Potential, which is completely meaningless but FUN nonetheless. It is supposed to express be the maximum wins a team could have earned in the perfect storm scenario - the best Runs Scored of any re-sim, coupled with the best Runs Against of any re-sim, sprinkled in with a fixed % boost for luck factor.

For example, Old Pete's Rabble, the lone computer team we had (still burns me) averaged 82 wins per re-sim. To get to 82, and this is another proof of Pythagoras, they scored 678 runs on average, and yielded the same amount. However, in re-sim 5 they scored 739 and in re-sim 18 they let up just 625. The run differential of 124 results in Pythagorean record of 94 wins. Sprinkle in a small luck factor, and you get a a Max Win Potential (MWP) of 99 wins. Like I said, pointless, but I love it regardless.

Oh, one other point to mention on stats. Actual, Avg, Max, and Min wins are the actual number of ATB XI wins, the average number of wins per re-sim, the most ever won in any re-sim, and the least ever won in any re-sim.

We'll start bottom to top and eventually make our way to #1.

24th - Hey Howarya (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: Russ Palmer, Mario Iafrate
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 53/47
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 57/34

Avg RD: -358
Playoffs: 0
MWP: 61

Rarely has a worse team graced an ATB league. In fairness, the original owner bailed on the draft and Russ and Mario were kind enough to jump in partway through. They had little to work with and it showed. Still - you can't average 115 losses per season and take no responsibility.

Howarya lost 100 games or more in each of the 20 re-sims and lost 120 or more an incredible 5 times. In re-sim 15 they lost 128 scoring 523 runs and letting in 949.

In ATB, the team over performed winning 13% more games then expected, thanks almost entirely to a pitching staff that let in 73 less runs than in the average re-sim.

23rd - Downsouth Brews (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owner: Allen
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 47/52
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 61/38

Avg RD: -267
Playoffs: 0
MWP: 68

A shade better than HOWARYA, the Brews still lost 100 or more games 20 times in a row, averaging 109 losses in the process. Long time ATB'ers knew the problem early on in the draft with after seing them post a 1st Round Hugh Duffy pick followed by Top-10 picks of Lou Brock, Herman Long, Barry Zito, and Hal Trosky.

In sim 9, the squad was at its best going 61-101 scoring 667 runs to their opponents 858.

The Brews were the worst team in the regular season thanks to a poor showing from their offense. They won 10% fewer games then expected mostly due 4% less runs then expected and some bad, bad, luck.

22nd - Wedge Tornado (HC - It Could Be)
Owner: Paul Taschereau Jr
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 56/60
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 77/51

Avg RD: -190
Playoffs: 0
MWP: 74

Paul T's squad is one of just two teams to exceed their Max Win Potential in one of the re-sims. In re-sim 10 they won 77 games with a -126 run differential, a full 11 games better than their Pythagorean Record indicates. Their spread between their best and worst re-sim records is one of the highest and the only one above 25 for a team with a losing record.

Comparing to ATB actuals, the Tornado underperformed by about 7% after giving up approximately 8% more runs than expected. They had fourteen 100 loss seasons but lost more than 110 "just twice".

21st - Bucky Dent's Middle Name (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owner: Scott Salley
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/76
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 85/66

Avg RD: -70
Playoffs: 0
MWP: 90

There is a clear delineation between the 22nd and 21st worst teams in the league.
  • BDM has a max win potential of 90; WT's was 74.
  • BDM never lost 100 games; as you recall WT lost 100 fourteen times.
  • BDM is our first team to max out with a record above .500, doing so 3 times.
While never making the playoffs, in re-sim 15, the team finished just 6 games off the pace for the division title and in re-Sim 10 were just 5 games off the pace for a Wild Card birth.

Middle Name was consistent across the board as well. They won 75 regular season contests and averaged 76 wins in the re-sims. They were within 22 runs of their regular season and re-sim run differentials and had one of just 5 Max/Min spreads below 20 games.

Next time, another group of 4 and our 1st two squads to make the playoffs.

Friday, August 28, 2009

World Series Page and Preview

  • Probable Starters
  • Team Comparisons (Defense, Pitching, Batting)
  • Park Data
  • and Prediction

Thursday, August 27, 2009

LCS Game 7 Complete!

Wasn't quite Kevin Brown, but close enough....?


Game 7 Breaking News!

Bellevue, October 28
Despite winning three consecutive, the Bellevue Freakin Franchise take a huge risk in Game 7 by starting their first basemen across the diamond at the hot corner and have also decided start middle reliever Allan Anderson. In the words of owner Brad P, it "wouldn't be me if I didn't take the risk with an unorthodox approach."

Derrek Lee (.818 regular season OPS) starts in place of the struggling Jimmy Williams (.360 LCS OPS) despite having no prior experience at the position. Anderson pitched a handful of games as a starter this year, and a handful more in relief. In the playoffs however, Bellevue turned to him after a poor showing from many others starters and he has delivered with a 2.85 ERA in 3 post season starts.

Facing off against the Franchise for Planet 10 is Joel Horlen. Horlen was masterful in the regular season winning 14 against 7 losses while holding down a 2.97 ERA. In the post season he has made two starts, both complete game shutout victories.

Post Season Awards - Cy Young

Harry Caray Cy Young
The Cy Young hardware is awarded to Planet 10's Greg Maddux, who received 16 of 17 first place votes, blowing out all competition. He bested second place starter Garland Braxton by 54 points, and third place award winner Jesse Tannehill by 55.

Wins must have counted heavily in one owner, as Braxton, despite giving up 20 points in WHIP and full point in ERA (almost a point and a half in RCERA) took one first place vote away from Maddux. Still, it is not completely outlandish as Maddux only made 27 starts and Braxton did have one more start of the Quality variety. Still, Maddux was clearly the best pitcher in the league whenever he took the mound.

The only other choice worth noting (for purposes of intrigue) is the second place vote for Brandon Webb. At 16-4, he no doubt had a great Win-Loss record but his 1.39 WHIP is hardly award worthy.

Vin Scully Cy Young
In the only unanimous voting in any of the 6 major awards, Pedro Martinez is the hands down winner of the VS Cy Young Award. Pedro was again masterful this season, pacing the league in ERA, RCERA, WHIP, Wins, CG, ShO, and strikeouts. He was also healthy all season long, making 33 of 33 scheduled starts

Bill Bernhard narrowly missed the majority vote for 2nd place, but still doubled the next closest competitor, Lefty Grove. The latter of which has spend many of season in ATB turmoil, and it is a pleasant surprise to see him among the Top 3.

One other vote of note - Curt Schilling and Dwight Gooden received 6 votes between them despite a combined 23-33 Win-Loss record, and a shout out goes to each owner who recognized their skills above the mostly random skill of recording a W.