Thursday, June 28, 2012

ATB Team Preview for Post Season Tournament

Just posted this in the Legends of Baseball forum, the league we will be competing against in the post season tournament we're trying to organize.

The Gold Country franchise has taken the world of ATB by storm.  Last year, in his rookie campaign, owner Justin B won 102 games and clearly had an all time great team even though they ultimately fell short of a Championship in the post season.  This year, Gold Country won 94 games and again were considered among the very best teams in ATB.  Led by Tris Speaker (.339 AVG) and John McGraw (.399 OBP), the scrappy offense failed to hit even 40 total home runs, but scored in bunches thanks to a team wide focus in getting on base.  Edgar Martinez (.836 OPS), Roger Connor (.346 AVG), and Bobby Murcer were vital cogs in the lineup as well.

Pitching was a true strength of the Gossamers.  Carl Hubbell (17-6, 2.80) won the AL Cy Young award while Tex Hughson (17 W, 2.90 ERA) was arguably the league’s top 2nd starter.  The bullpen, led by Cherokee Fisher (2.36 ERA)and BJ Ryan (2.39 ERA), was stellar.   As a team they sported a nifty 3.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and were second in the game in Quality Starts.  The bullpen blew just 12 saves, tops in the game.

So what happened to the Gossamers this year?  They ran into a buzz saw in the playoffs, and fell victim to a timely run from the Bertrand Island Carnies.  The Carnies opened the season with a .750 winning percentage over the first two months before fading and ultimately playing .500 ball over the last two months.  However, once the playoffs started the team kicked it into high gear again, thanks to a surprisingly deep rotation of Danny Haren (13-6, 2.60), Curt Schilling (19-9, 3.34), Jason Schmidt (13-9, 3.06), and newcomer Jerry Ruess (15-6, 3.45)

The offense was inconsistent but hit righties extremely well.  Johnny Mize hit 34 home runs in a platoon, while Ty Cobb, Frank Baker, and Orator Shaffer all had good seasons.  Catcher Fred Carroll, with a .384 OBP,  remained one of the most underrated players in the game.

The Carnies went 12-3 in the playoffs, giving owner Lou P his first World Series appearance in 6 years and his third overall championship.

Facing the Carnies in the World Series were the pitching and defense heavy Otherton Fishbisuits.  This was a truly unique team, hell bent on fielding as many Ex defending players as possible, including an Ex/1 rated second basemen, Placido Polanco.  Batting prowess was clearly secondary as six regulars failed to achieve a .310 on base percentage.  But it worked for owner Brian B.  Hank Aaron, one of the six, hit 49 home runs while Honus Wagner and Bill Terry each had all around great seasons.

Pitching, behind that stellar D, was the key to the Biscuit success.  Few pitchers in ATB history have meant as much to their team as Addie Joss meant to Otherton.  Starting 42 times, Joss went 23-14 with a 2.60 ERA, and narrowly missing the 300 IP plateau.  Behind Joss were Noddles Hahn (15-11, 3.18), Lefty Stewart (3.80) and a good bullpen.  Kent Tekulve was their best reliever, saving 36 games  and holding down a 1.50 ERA in 84 innings pitched.

The fourth team representing the All Time Baseball League will be the Sparta Hoplites.  The Hoplites won 89 times on guts, instinct, and hard work.  Leading the league in team doubles, players such as Arky Vaughan (.833 OPS), Joe Jackson (16 triples), Ed Delahanty (52 doubles), Cy Seymour (36 doubles), and Babe Herman (38 doubles) came up big night after night.

The rotation was an odd mix of old school and new.  Randy Johnson was their ace, winning 15 games with a 3.28 ERA.  Behind him was Mort Cooper (3.84 ERA), Stan Coveleski (13 W), and Bobby Shantz.  Closer Rafael Soriano had a great season, saving 27 games with a 2.35 ERA.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

1925 Rogers Hornsby

I am in the process of adding regular season award data into the Player Cards and came across 1925 Rogers Hornsby used in ATB 11:

.344 / .391 / .579, .970 OPS, 26 2B, 4 3B, 27 HR, 104 RBI

1924 is the de facto year selection for the second basemen, and ATB 11 was the one and only time an owner strayed off the path of collective wisdom for a gamble. 

It paid off.  So much so that his .970 OPS is about 100 points better than any of his 1924 seasons on record.

The genius behind it all?  Scott Salley, who played ATB 11 and was never heard from again.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

ATB History Pages Updated

Our league history pages have been updated:

  • 10 Greatest Seasons (Speedster, Overall, Non Power, Closers, etc)
  • ATB XIV Season Capsule
  • Player Cards and Historical Register companion
  • Leader boards (Career and Single Season)
  • Top Careers by Position
No major records were broken this year, however several top 10 marks were set.  These are all highlighted in green on the leader board pages.  Some of the more interesting milestones were Willie Keeler's 51 caught steals (somehow not a record), Babe Ruth's .627 slugging average, Addie Joss' 23 Wins, and Jonathan Papelbon's 1.23 ERA.




Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Balanced Schedule Resim Standings

Well, this is interesting

(Click to Enlarge)
I expected some wide variations here, but did not expect wide variations within the same division.  The Pinata Beaters are officially ranked 4th in the AL East, but somehow in these balanced re-sims jumped past the Carnies and Chips into second in the division and second overall.

The lesson?  Sample size.  Perhaps 20 seasons isn't enough to draw any definitive conclusion one way or another.  Next year we'll try 50!

20 Resim Files

For you reading pleasure, all the gory detail behind the 20 resims can be found here

Annual Team Records and Standings Summary
Summary of Batter and Pitcher Lines
Raw Single Season Pitching Data
Raw Single Season Batting Data

20 Resims: #1 Gold Country Gossamers


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


For the second season in a row, the Gold Country Gossamers are the 20 resim Champions.  With the 2nd ranked offense and 5th ranked pitching staff, the Gossamers had a stellar +132 run differential, allowing them to have a winning record in all 20 seasons, a feat no other team matched.  This team was so good that their resim minimum wins of 86 was better than the maximum wins of 6 other teams.

Their lineup was out of deadball-era lore – no batter hit more than 10 home runs, yet they scored 777 runs.  They didn’t hit an inordinate amount of doubles to triples either, but they did get on base at a prolific clip:

.436 – John McGraw (3B)
.387 – Tris Speaker (CF)
.379 – Roger Connor (1B)
.360 – Cupid Childs (2B)
.362 – Bobby Murcer (DH)
.358 – Ross Youngs (RF)
.355 – Harry Walker (LF)
.346 – Wally Schang (C)

Plus part time players:
.377 – Edgar Martinez
.356 – Joe Kelley
.343 – Frank Fennelly

Only Bill Dahlen, an Ex/85 shortstop, was deficient.

The pitching staff was well above average top to bottom.  Only one regular, on the entire staff, had en ERA over 4.00.

Justin B simply drafted a team with absolutely no holes.  He monitored his team weekly and even survived a mistake trade, shipping Tim Burke to the Daffiness Boys for a wrong-year Frank Robinson

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Carl Hubbell: 3.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Tex Hughson: 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Preacher Roe: 3.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
BJ Ryan: 2.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Tom Henke: 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Sergio Romo: 2.80 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 17 Preacher Roe and Rd 24 Harry Walker (.315 / .355 / .353)

Bust Draft Pick
No standouts, but Fergie Jenkins in Rd 8 (4.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) is one I am sure Justin would want  back.


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats
#5 – New Orleans Thrill
#4 – Sparta Hoplites
#3 – Bertrand Island Carnies
#2 – Otherton Fishbiscuits
#1 – Gold Country Gossamers

Monday, June 18, 2012

20 Resims #2: Otherton Fishbiscuits


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Congrats to Brian B; I can picture the smile on his face when reading that his Biscuits have reached such heights.

This was an interesting team, one that took the “Does Defense Matter” question to heart, drafting almost exclusively great defenders and eschewing the on-base percentage movement that has gripped many in our league.

Playing home games in a batters park, this defense was largely responsible for the league’s best overall pitching staff.  All four members of the rotation had very good ERA’s, significantly below the league average of 4.10.  2nd rounder Addie Joss was brilliant, tossing almost 300 innings a season while yielding few hits and few walks.  After Noodles Hahn, was Lefty Stewart, an unheard of southpaw drafted in the 21st round, and great year in and year out.  Even Carnie reject Pete Alexander looked grate in a Fishbiscuit uniform.

The bullpen was the best in the business, with every single member eligible for being highlighted below with a ERA under 3.25.  Kent Tekulve was a truly elite closer, saving 38 games as season with an ERA of 1.95.

The offense was an odd bunch, with only Bill Terry, Honus Wagner, and Fred Clarke achieving an on base percentage over .315. Ken Griffey Jr was on base less than 30% of the time, but he hit 36 home runs and drove in 115.  Hank Aaron had a .305 OBP, but hit 37 home runs and drove in 108.  The rest were great defending, poor hitting late round draft choices.  Placido Polanco had a .613 OPS but his Ex/1 defense at second base made him worth it.

Otherton won 90 or more games thirteen times, made the playoffs 16 teams (including 13 division titles), and was third overall in Run Differential at +100. Are they better than Bertrand Island?   We’ll soon know after the balanced schedule resim, but they made the playoffs more often and almost won the division two and half times more, and that counts so they easily secure the #2 overall ranking.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Addie Joss: 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 19 W, 288 IP
Noodles Hahn: 3.57 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 18 W, 270 IP
Lefty Stewart: 3.51 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Pete Alexander: 3.45 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Kent Tekulve: 1.95 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 38 Saves
Joakim Soria: 3.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Andrew Bailey: 3.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Al Grabowski: 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Trevor Hoffman: 2.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Tom Glavine: 3.02 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 21: Lefty Stewart (see above)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4: Dizzy Dean, relegated to mop up duties


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats
#5 – New Orleans Thrill
#4 – Sparta Hoplites
#3 – Bertrand Island Carnies
#2 – Otherton Fishbiscuits

20 Resims: #3 Bertrand Island Carnies


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


I won’t pretend this doesn’t sting.  After winning 104 games in the regular season and avoiding elimination games in each round of the playoffs, I thought for certain my Carnies were destined to be proclaimed among the immortal teams in our league history.

Alas, it was a lot of timely luck that helped us win the ATB Championship.

Not say the Carnies weren’t great and one might argue they are deserving of the 2nd best ranking overall thanks to their +118 run differential, which we’ll soon see is clearly the 2nd best (and clearly not the overall best).  This team had few flaws, and had an equally adept lineup (6th overall) and rotation (4th overall).  They won 5 division crowns and were playoff bound 14 times.  Only once in the resims did they fail to win more games then they lost, and that was an 81-81 campaign.

Offensively, the Carnies were yet another example of an all around, well balanced team. Eight players, including both ends of two platoons, each had OPS scores above league average and the only true hole was at short, where defensive wizard Ozzie Smith roamed daily.

The pitching staff, no where near as good as the regular season suggested, was still among the best in the game.  Four pitchers ended up with ERA’s well below 4.00 (see below) and the 5th, Curt Schilling, was solid.  More than holding is own in the resims, regular season phenom Jerry Reuss pulled in a 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

The best aspect of this team was its bullpen.  Four relievers had ERA’s under 3.00 (see below) and Zach Greinke had a very good mark of 3.30.  Only mop up man Arnie Stone was questionable, and that is relative – his ERA was 3.59, still appreciably better than the ATB league average.

800 OPS Batters: 
Ty Cobb: .834 OPS, .327 / .369 / .465, 38 2B, 19 3B
Frank Thomas: .821 OPS, 20 HR in a platoon

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Danny Haren: 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14 W
Jason Schmidt: 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Jerry Reuss: 3.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Joe Wood: 3.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Jeff Zimmerman: 2.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 22 Saves
Steve Howe: 2.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 15 Saves
Mike Jackson: 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Taylor Buchholz: 2.93 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 19: Jerry Reuss

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 6: Ozzie Smith (.585 OPS)


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats
#5 – New Orleans Thrill
#4 – Sparta Hoplites
#3 – Bertrand Island Carnies

Sunday, June 17, 2012

20 Resims: #4 Sparta Hoplites


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


The Sparta Hoplites are the fist of our great resim teams.  Sure, we must consider the division they played in, arguably the worst in ATB. However, they were the only team to take advantage of the situation winning the title 13 times, tied for the best mark in the game.  They were awarded the wild card two more times, and their 15 post season appearances was tied for the second best overall

How did they do it?  Honestly I am not entirely sure and I look forward to the results of the balanced schedule resim at the end of the rankings.  This was a top tier team that won 90 or more games 9 times, yet they accomplished this with Teddy Higuera as their “ace” and Joe Jackson as their main offensive threat.  No other starting pitcher recorded an ERA and 4.00 and no other batter, despite a home park that increased offense dramatically, had an OPS over .800.

You’ll notice Sean submitted 17 lineups in a 12 week season, and this indirectly speaks to his drafting mindset.  He subscribes to the practice of “the whole is greater than the sum its parts” and perhaps there is something to this.  While the lineup had no traditionally great offensive players, each person played a specific role, and it was littered with above average players.  Sandwiched between decent OBP threats such as Joe Jackson and Arky Vaughn, were extra base hit threats of Derek Lee (30 2B, 24 HR), Babe Herman (34 2B, 19 HR), Ed Delahanty (51 2B), and Cy Seymour (31 2B, 14 3B).

The starting rotation looked worse than reality thanks to Forbes Field.  Their best pitcher was Kevin Brown (11 W, 4.03 ERA), while Mort Cooper and Teddy Higuera were all above average when considering park effects.  John Denny was a good find in Rd 27, and let’s call him about league average (4.34, 1.40).

The bullpen was very good, featuring two top end relievers in Steve Reed and Rafael Soriano (see below), while Joel Pineiro, Kevin Saucier, and Aaron Fultz all performed better than the league average.

All this combined to give the Hoplites the 4th best run differential of the resims.

800 OPS Batters: 
Joe Jackson: .801 OPS, .326 / .364 / .437, 234 H, 41 2B, 118 R

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Teddy Higuera: 3.97 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Steve Reed: 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP,  96 IP
Rafael Soriano: 2.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 35 Saves

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 21: the aforementioned John Denny

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 8: Scott Rolen (.535 OPS and benched ½ way through he regulars season).


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats
#5 – New Orleans Thrill
#4 – Sparta Hoplites

Only three teams remain, our World Champion Carnie’s, their NL pennant winning Fishbiscuits, the Gossamers, owners of the 2nd best regular season record.


Saturday, June 16, 2012

20 Resims: #5 New Olreans Thrill


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Forget Brad P, I personally feel vindicated with this nice showing from the New Orleans Thrill.  After the draft, I thought the Thrill would challenge for title this year but they had a relatively poor showing for much of the regular season before catching fire late.  In the resims they made the playoffs more often than not (12 of 20 chances) and had two 100-win campaigns, including a stellar 107 win season in sim 6.  In that 107 win season, they scored 862 runs and had a +207 Run Differential, truly elite numbers.

The Thrill had a great offense (5th best) and an average pitching staff (13th best).  Second basemen Ross Barnes was the team’s best player and one of the most valuable in either league.   He hit for average, power, and got on base almost 41% of his at bats.  Luis Gonzalez, Willie Stargell, and Mike Schmidt provide almost 100 home runs while Dan Brouthers and Steve Evans were well above average too.
A word on Schmidt. With the new rules surrounding playing time, Brad rightfully chose his famous 1981 season.  Schmidt is now a legitimate top 10 or even top 5 third basemen, yet I can’t help but feel disappointed.  In the regular season he was awesome, batting .272  / .346 / .502 with 43 home runs and 125 RBI, but in the resims we was merely very good (.242 / .325 / .444, 37 HR)..

The offense could have been even better.  Catcher Roy Campanella (.287 / .325 / .425) was in a platoon, batting against lefties and came to the plate just over 200 times.  He shared duties with Brian McCann (.263 / .297 / .365) but was clearly deserving of a full time starting role.  Elsewhere, Cal McVey (.318 / .345 / .451) received only 238 plate appearances while Earl Combs (.285 / .323 / .354) accumulated 534.

In the rotation Brad found a gem in Ted Lilly, the 21st rounder won 15 games and secured a nifty 1.26 WHIP and 3.63 ERA.  The rest of the rotation was below average, but a great pen made up for it on most nights.

800 OPS Batters: 
Ross Barnes: .874 OPS, .347 / .409 / .465, 29 2B, 21 3B, 101 R
Dan Brouthers: .802 OPS, .309 / .369 / .433, 36 2B, 96 RBI
Willie Stargell: .820 OPS, .253 / .306 / .513, 32 HR

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Ted Lilly: 3.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 15 W

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Bruce Sutter: 2.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 IP
Mariano Rivera: 2.07 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 40 Saves
Arthur Lee Rhodes: 3.01, 1.22 WHIP, 79 IP
Jason Isringhausen: 3.19 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 21: Ted Lilly

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 9: George Wright: .269 / .298 / .327


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats
#5 – New Orleans Thrill

Friday, June 15, 2012

20 Resims: #6 St Louis White Rats


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.

20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first.

Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Most will not remember how the White Rats opened the regular seas, winning 17 of 26 and holding the NL East Division lead for much of May.  After about May 15th the team took a nosedive and ultimately finished in 5th place with a 78-84 record.  The resims revealed that their opening run was closer to reality than the nosedive.

Jeff B’s White Rats won 7 division titles and 4 wild cards.  They sported both an above average offense in pitching staff, and won 90 or more games seven times.  This was a very good team.  In fact, the regular season was such a fluke, their 78 wins was less than their worst showing in the 20 resims.

One day I will have to study the matter, but there is a general feeling among a sub-set of owners that believe drafting a 1st round pitcher is a mistake.  The definition is mistake is in terms of winning the World Series – it’s too difficult to win if one draft’s Pedro Martinez or Greg Maddux in the 1st round.

Our 7th Ranked Orators and now the 6th Ranked White Rats failed to obtain a single batter who could post an .800 OPS in the resims.  That has to mean something.  On the other hand, both teams were better than 2/3’s of the league and that means something too.

For the White Rats, this was an extremely balanced team with few standouts and few glaring holes.  The offense had no regular under a .625 OPS and their top 6 batters average a .767 OPS together.  5th rounder Sam Thompson was probably their best hitter (.299 / .330 / .462, 24 2B, 24 3B) but George Sisler (.321 AVG, .354 OBP) and Josh Gibson (29 HR) could make similar claims.

The rotation was of course top heavy thanks to Greg Maddux, but it worked.  Johan Santana, probably best suited as a #3 worked well enough as the White Rats #2.   The bullpen was led by Joe Nathan and Damaso Marte (see below), but Curt Leskanic, Mark Eichhorn, Steve Mingori, and Jeff Nelson were all better than average.

Counting it up – 8 of 10 pitchers bested the league average era, and 7 of 9 batters bested the league average OPS.   That is impressive.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Greg Maddux: 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 18 W, 264 IP
Johan Santana: 3.80 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Joe Nathan: 2.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Damaso Marte: 3.24 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 14: Bill Joyce: .763 OPS (.344 OBP, .419 SLG)

Bust Draft Pick
None, though I am disappointed with Duke Snider’s performance (.325 OBP, .430 SLG for a Rd 3 pick).


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators
#6 – St Louis White Rats

Reader Email: Does Defense Really Matter?


An ATB Faithful sent this to me yesterday:
Can you give us another word about defense as you go through the rest of the teams, as a postscript on the analysis you conducted over last fall? I wasn't alone in picking my team with a renewed defensive focus. I got thrown off by some of the early draft picks and went too extreme, as it appears - didn't find the right balance.
I can't add analysis to the rest of the 20 Resim articles - most have already been written - but I figured the least I can do is summarize the situation and offer up some theories, if not to conclusions.


Taking us back to end of last season, I wrote the following when unveiling the Gossamers as the best team in ATB XIII, and ultimately, in our league history:
Has the face of ATB changed forever? This, and not just naming the best team, is the most pertinent question we can ask ourselves in reviewing our 20-resims. With one of the best pitching staffs we’ve ever seen, and 180 more wins than any other team in the 20-resims, it’s clear the Gossamers were the best team in ATB this year. But what is the long term impact on draft strategy and team composition?

First, a few words the ATB XIII Gossamers. We know from the regular season Gold Country focuses on great pitching and even better defense. Perhaps just as important was there platoon strategy. With early draft picks mostly going towards pitching, Justin had to mix and match with his offense and the result was unofficial ATB record of six (!) platoons. Only Eddie Collins (.381 OBP), Pop Lloyd (.354 OPB), and Richie Ashburn (.363) were full time players.
There were many other articles about the Gossamers during the regular season, most focused on their incredible defense.  Long ago the league realized that defense was a critical aspect of winning a DMB league, but no owner had focused on total defensive excellence until the Gossamers came along, and they ran away with the league.

This year, many of us changed our focuses to defense as well, and the results were no where near as impressive.  Why?

Argument 1 - Defense Matters, but Rey Ordonez is still a bad player
I personally feel this is the key.  Many draft picks the season were reaches for good defensive players.  My Carnies s squad went with Ozzie Smith in round 6 and was stuck with a .570 OPS.  In the final ATB Value Scores Smith ended up as the 13th ranked full time shortstop in the league, and several platoons were better still - perhaps the Carnies had the 16th or 17th best shortstop results.  Hardly what I was looking for in a 6th rounder.

The Helena Handbaskets ended the season playing Ex/63 defender Rabbit Maranville most of the time, his OPS was .489.   At least a dozen owners fell into this same trap and paid for it all season long.



Argument 2 - More Owners means less great defenders to spread around
A year ago the Gossamers were one of handful of teams to focus on defense.  And this in a league of 18 teams.  This season I counted twelve teams with what I would consider very good defense, and since there were six additional teams in the league as well, any remaining great defenders were spread out across all 24 squads.


I won't pretend to know the mind of Justin B, but last year he took perfect advantage of a Moneyball situation.  Defense is a key aspect of winning, and with few teams recognizing it, the Gossamers obtained great defenders who could also hit.

A team can be very good with great defense.  It can also be very good by getting on base often.  The Gossamers did both, but the rest of us failed to appreciate it wasn't all defense.



Argument 3 - The 79 Resims Fouled up Everything
They sure did.  Never has a draft been so difficult to wade through and I received dozens of emails, and the draft board comments were alight with similar comments, all pronouncing their 'guy' was taken.  Before the 79 Resims (and 100 Resims) only a handful of owners appreciated the way DMB chose favorites.  I have said it before, but it's such a great example I'll say it again, my ATB XIV Manetheren Red Eagle team had John McGraw, Ted Williams, Tip O'Neill, Norm Cash, Bill Dickey, and Hughie Jennings on offense.  The rotation consisted of Cy Blanton, Jesse Tannehill, and Bill Bernhard.  Oh, and the pen featured Dennis Eckersley, JJ Putz, Jim Poole, and Steve Reed. 


We were all getting smarter anyway, but the resims generally leveled the playing field, ensuring a handful of teams would never stockpile the best players again.


Where does that leave us?
Wonderfully, it leaves us realizing that common sense prevails.  The best major league teams combine first rate lineups with first rate pitching staffs with first rate defenders.  DMB is no different - focusing on any single aspect of the game is no longer enough to make a team great.


Thursday, June 14, 2012

20 Resims: #7 Ee-Yah Orators

At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.

20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first.

Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.



Similar to the 8th ranked Brighton Shadows, Mike S’ Ee-Yah Orators were a team that showed hints of greatness but ultimately fell short of elite thanks to a few questionable draft picks. 

The Orators featured many of the key elements all memorable teams draft.  A great pitching staff?  Check, see Pedro Martinez and reliever Rafael Betancourt.  Superb defense?  You bet with Hughie Jennings, Chase Utley, and Keith Hernandez taking the field every day few teams were better.  Position scarcity?  Covered – King Kelly and the aforementioned Jennings.  What they needed, however, was a middle of the order type of player, and what they drafted was Larry Doby in the 4th round. 

We can’t pin everything on Doby. Utley was anemic at the plate, 5th Rounder Josh Hamilton was a disappointment, and with those holes, carrying Jimmy Williams and Tommy Holmes in the lineup everyday became problematic as well.  In a park that only slightly favored pitchers, six regulars (including 2 platoons) didn’t crack a .700 OPS.

Getting back to their lack of a middle of the order batter, here are the resim results for their round 4, 5, and 6 selections:

Doby: .247 / .325 / .345 in centerfield
Hamilton: .291 / .318 / .418 in left
Holmes: .267 / .310 / .287 in right

Playing the “what if” game again, how about Lip Pike (.754 OPS) in center field, Albert Belle (.869 OPS) in left, and Goose Goslin (.750 OPS) in right field.  Each was available at the time the Orators drafted, and the difference is pronounced to say the least.

Overall however, this was still a very good team.  The pitching was great thanks to Pedro and a quality bullpen (see below).  The rotation was better than many expected, with Deacon Phillippe, David Cone, and Larry Dierker all measurably better than the average ATB starter.

Cap Anson was a great find (.373 OBP), even if drafted perhaps a bit early, and King Kelly is still a top flight catcher despite a pronounced dip in results (.308 / .383 / .362) vs. ATB Career line of .328 / .413  / .398).

The team won 7 division titles, was 5th in Run Differential, and made the playoffs 9 of 20 times.  They are also our first team to win 100 games in any single re-sim season and sunk below 80 wins just twice.

800 OPS Batters:
Not one player was even close to .800  Remarkable for the 7th ranked team

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Pedro Martinez: 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20 W, 280 IP
Deacon Phillippe: 3.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
David Cone: 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Larry Dierker: 3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Rafael Betancourt: 2.44 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 37 Saves
Greg Holland: 3.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 84 IP
Mike Myers: 2.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 61 IP
Jonathan Broxton: 3.14 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 45 IP

Best Value Draft Pick
Either Holland (24th) or Jim O’Rourke (again in the 24th) with a .706 OPS.

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4: Larry Doby, who had an OBP close to .400 in the 79 resims.


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows
#7 – Ee-Yah Orators

20 Resims: #8 Brighton Shadows

At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.

20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first.

Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.



The Brighton Shadows are in interesting team.  Owner David K went with five pitchers in the first 10 rounds, placed them in a pitchers park, yet ended up with a high octane offense and a below average pitching staff.  One has to wonder how good this team had been with a few plausible alterations to the starting rotation.

For instance, here is their rotation and resim ERA’s, all selected between rounds 4 and 8.
Rd 4: 3.99 ERA, Justin Verlander
Rd 5: 4.53 ERA, Dazzy Vance
Rd 6: 4.20 ERA, Ed Walsh
Rd 8: 3.91 ERA, Jimmy Key

Justin Verlander could have been Kevin Brown (3.28 ATB XIV ERA)
Dazzy Vance could have been Carl Hubbell (2.80 ERA)
Ed Walsh could have been Kevin Millwood (3.75 ERA)
Jimmy Key could have been Harry Brecheen (3.70 ERA)

With the offense remaining as presently constructed and with the addition of those stareters, this would have easily been a top-5 squad.  With a year under his belt, a return season for David will likely result in an excellent championship caliber team

Still, this was a very good team as constructed.  The offense was centered around Barry Bonds, who was tailor made for 2003 Miller Park.  Providing additional power was Harmon Killebrew (26 HR), Jason Giambi (23 HR), and Ken Williams (22 HR).  Elsewhere Roy Thomas, John Olerud, and Pop Lloyd each were on base well above the league average rate and in fact looking at the lineup in total, only Killebrew was OBP handicapped.

As mentioned  the starting rotation was troublesome, but the pen was better than average.  Aside from Huston Street and Robb Nen mentioned below, Dan Quisenberry (3.29 ERA) and Gene Garber (3.52 ERA) were productive.

In all, the Shadows won the division 6 times and added three more wild card births, making the playoffs 55% of the time.  

800 OPS Batters:
Barry Bonds: 1.014 OPS, .302 / .444 / .570, 45 HR, 128 R, 137 RBI
Jason Giambi: .828 OPS, 23 HR, 117 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Justin Verlander: 3.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 16 W
Jimmy Key: 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Huston Street: 3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 75 IP
Robb Nen: 2.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 35 Saves

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 22:  No great revelations here, but Reb Russell (4.29 ERA out of the pen) was good for this late of a choice.

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5: Dazzy Vance and his 4.53 ERA/1.45 WHIP in a pitchers park


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub
#8 – Brighton Shadows

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

20 Resims: # 9 John McDonald Fanclub


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


John McDonald Fanclub, courtesy at least in part to a hitting friendly Connie Mack Stadium, ended up with the best lineup in the league.  With his second MVP in a row, team leader Mickey Mantle showed why some believe he’s the best choice for  the #1 draft pick.  The good defending centerfielder scored 125 runs with a .912 OPS.

Elsewhere Albert Belle emerged as an ATB star thanks to a .353 OBP and .516 SLG.  He hit 34 home runs and drove in, on average, 147 runs each sim.  I couldn’t help but check the raw data and sure enough in Sim 4 Belle hit 52 home runs and drove in 184.  I never remembered Belle as an upper tier player and the Player Cards confirm that most owners historically felt the same way.  In 8 ATB seasons Belle was a regular in just three of them.  I think Fanclub owner Jason B has changed that forever.

The rest of the lineup was extremely well balanced.  Carl Yastrzemski (.776 OPS), George Hall (.867 OPS) and Charley Jones (.781 OPS) split time roaming the outfield; Buck Leonard (.802 OPS) manned first base; Rod Carew (.355 OB) and the great defending Joe Sewell played middle infield.  Brooks Robinson (Ex Defense) and Gene “good for a catcher” Tenace rounded out the lineup.

With many early draft picks going towards offense the rotation and bullpen struggled.  No starter had an ERA under 4.25 but at the same time no starter was a disaster either, as Doc White, Doug Drabek, Jose Rijo, and Jeff D’Amico each had ERA’s between 4.33 and 4.45.  Cla Meredith was a gem out of the pen but the only other above average reliever was Dick Hall .  This adds up to make Fanclub ranked 19th in runs prevented.

John McDonald was a very good team, winning the division 6 times and claiming the wild card four additional.  In sim 13 they won 99 games and outscored opponents by 152 runs.  Only 6 times did their record dip below .500.

800 OPS Batters: 
Mickey Mantle: .912 OPS, .319 / .426 / .486, 21 2B, 24 HR, 125 R, 103 RBI
Albert Belle: .306 / .353 / .516, 34 HR, 147 RBI
Buck Leonard: .802 OPS
George Hall: .867 OPS, .321 / .380 / .488

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Dick Hall: 3.23 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 152 IP
Cla Meredith: 2.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 37 Saves

Best Value Draft Pick
Doc White:  The 24th rounder led Fanclub starters in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Innings Pitched.

Bust Draft Pick
Nothing major but Rd 10: Tiny Bonham (4.49 ERA) qualifies as a minor bust


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips
#9 – John McDonald Fanclub

20 Resims: #10 DC Chips


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Always at the forefront of manager innovation, this year was no different for Steve C and the DC Chips.  However, this time the Chips may have gone too far and ATB XIV was the franchise’s worst season to date.

The Chips selected the 1956 Polo Grounds as their home park, and with an insanely low 80 park factor for singles plays as the most pitching friendly park in the game.  In an attempt to take full advantage of this, the team carried just 9 pitchers all season.

I am not sure that it worked.  Out of the pen, Dennis Eckersley and Gabe White were stellar and the rotation, on it’s surface, looked pretty good as well.  But are ERA’s of Bill Bernhard (3.62) and Johnny Podres (3.53 ERA) really that good when taken in park context?

Similarly, the front end of the bullpen featured Goose Gossage (3.35 ERA), Roger Nelson (3.62 ERA), and Dick Donovan (3.72 ERA); the last two likely would have been below average pitchers in a run-neutral park.

Offensively, the Chips were frustrated by a lineup very disparate in quality.  On one hand there was Babe Ruth (1.000 OPS), but on the other hand the platoon of Eric Chavez and Matt Williams (.562 OPS combined).  Lip Pike was a good hitting centerfielder (.292 / .330 / .424) but his contribution was counteracted by second base platoon Max Bishop and Miller Huggins (.570 OPS).   Combined with the park, the result was an offense in the bottom third of the league.

Overall, DC made the playoffs about a third of the time and for one long stretch, made the postseason 5 consecutive seasons, six times in seven seasons, and seven times in ten seasons.  That is an interesting spread and speaks the reason most DMB lifers like to see the results over 100 seasons before concluding anything.

One final note - look at that strange sim #6.  Anything can happen in a single season, and it happened to the Chips in Sim 6.  They won just 70 games, a full 12 games off the pace of their next worst season.

800 OPS Batters: 
Babe Ruth: 1.000 OPS, .261 / .413 / .587, 52 HR, 108 R, 127 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Bill Bernhard: 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 16 W, 168 IP
Bob Ojeda: 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16 W, 253 IP
Johnny Podres: 3.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Frank Sullivan: 3.97 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Dennis Eckersley: 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 120 IP, 21 Saves
Gabe White: 2.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 18 Saves

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 24: Roger Nelson (87 IP, 1.28 WHIP)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 8: Robin Yount (.283 OBP, 461 PA)



Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters
#10 – DC Chips

There are only nine teams left, who will make it into the heralded top 5?


In alphabetical order, the teams remaining:

Bertrand Island Carnies
Brighton Shadows
Ee-Yah Orators
Gold Country Gossamers
John McDonald Fanclub
New Orleans Thrill
Otherton Fishbiscuits
Sparta Hoplites
St. Louis White Rats

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

20 Reims: #11 Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Several have theorized that the AL East was the class division of ATB XIV.  The Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters are a case in point. By all meaningful measures, the Beaters were clearly superior to the #12 All Stars.  They had a higher resim average number of wins, a higher max potential, a higher minimum number of wins, etc.  They outsourced opponents by twice as much, and enjoyed both a better team ERA and team OPS.  Yet, the All Stars made the playoffs two and a half times more than the Beaters.

It must be the division, right?   I think so too and will run a balanced schedule set of resims to determine if it’s true.  For now, we can lament the random number generator and at least content ourselves with the idea that three other AL East owners had better teams.

This was a very good team though, 7th in overall run differential a 90 win team 7 times as well.  Incredibly, in four of those seven seasons they missed the playoffs entirely.

The star of this team was the bullpen.  Four different relievers sported ERA’s well under 3.00, a third was slightly above 3.00, and the fifth was still better than the league average.

The offense, led by second basemen Fred Dunlap, was very good.  Mark McGwire was his normal homer hitting self, but perhaps just as important were the seasons from Harry Heilmann (.303 / .360 / .427) and catcher  Mickey Cochrane (.364 OBP).  Designated Hitter Travis Hafner was also solid.

What kept Justin’s team out of the playoffs was the starting rotation.  Babe Adams (below) was a fine ace but three pitchers ended up with ERA’s over 4.00 and as you’ll see as we climb through the top-10 teams, that just isn’t good enough.

800 OPS Batters: 
Fred Dunlap: .896 OPS, .348 / .394 / .502, 38 2B, 17 HR, 115 RBI
Mark McGwire: .836 OPS, 49 HR, 115 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Babe Adams: 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 225 IP
Ted Lyons: 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Pat Jarvis: 3.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 94 IP
Graeme Lloyd: 2.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 85 IP
Jim Poole: 2.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 79 IP
Neftali Feliz: 2.92 ERA , 1.26 WHIP, 21 Saves
Paul Wilson : 2.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 57 IP

Best Value Draft Pick
Several candidates, but Feliz (above) was a true gem for Round 20.

Bust Draft Pick
None, but it is of note that Hank Aguirre was selected in Round 10 and is the only reliever not listed in the “Sub 3.25 Relievers” section.


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars
#11 – Spanish Harlem Pinata Beaters

20 Resims: #12 Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


The AL West Division winners apparently played above themselves in the ATB regular season. Just about everything broke right for Rusty Kuntz, so much so that their 92 regular season wins matched their best win total during the 20 re-sims.

In the resims, this was a solid team offensively and about average in pitching.  They made the playoffs exactly half of the time but never had quite enough wins for a division title.  They did tie for the division lead in Year 1 but ultimately lost in a tie breaker based on run differential.

Led by the immortal Ted Williams (see below) the All Stars also heavily relied on 21st rounder Elmer Flick (also see below) and 2nd Rounder Hugh Duffy.  Duffy, roaming center, was particularly good batting .312 / .350 / .430 with 34 doubles.  They key aspect of the balance of the lineup was lack of glaring hole.  No other batter excelled, but every other regular combined to average a .672 OPS.  Wade Boggs also recorded a notable .355 on base percentage.

The rotation was led by Al Orth and the bullpen JJ Putz. In between, starters Harvey Haddix (4.06 ERA) and Ben Sheets (4.07 ERA) were solid, but when one employs a 4-man rotation, the 4th leg needs to be better than Catfish Hunter (4.58 ERA).

The bullpen was a true bright spot.  Aside from the three relievers listed below, Derek Lilliquist (3.27 ERA), Al Hrabosky (3.44 ERA), Bryan Harvey (3.42 ERA), and Pascual Perez (3.33 ERA) were all above average.

800 OPS Batters: 
Ted Williams: .936 OPS, .320 / .437 / .500, 29 HR, 102 R, 100 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Al Orth: 3.45 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 19-13, 289 IP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Steve Ontiveros: 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 93 IP
JJ Putz: 2.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 75 IP, 37 Saves
Rafael Perez: 3.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 21: Elmer Flick (.714 OPS, 24 2B, 9 3B, 8 HR)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 6: Candy Nelson was harmed by the 1800s reset.  His new line for Rusty: .238 / .351 / .268


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket
#12 – Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars

Monday, June 11, 2012

20 Resims: #13 Helena Handbasket


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Well, this team is better than what is showed.  Joe T’s #2 draft pick in Willie McCovey was not placed in the starting lineups, and instead of enjoying another .800+ OPS batter, the team was stuck with Eddie Murray who batted .263 / .333 / .358.  I am not suggesting that McCovey makes Helena a top 5 or even top 10 team this a top 10 franchise, but they certainly would have placed better than .500 and would have scored a positive run differential.

Overall, this was an interesting result for Helena.  They featured some big names across the roster. Offensively Stan Musial (see below) was his typical wonderful self, hitting 32 doubles, 14 triples, and 17 home runs per season and then batters such as Chipper Jones (.373 OBP) and Paul Waner (.354 OBP) did more than hold their own.

They also featured three good starters and three good relievers (see below) so why did they struggle, floating around .500 over the course of the 20 re-sims?  While not the only reasons, Rabbit Maranville and White Ford are the two most significant.  Maranville, a shortstop, was truly awful and may have been the worst everyday hitter in ATB.  He batted .202 / .235 / .220 in 608 plate appearances.  Not sure I have seen a .220 slugging before.  Ford was almost as bad, recording a 1.57 WHIP and 4.78 ERA in 33 starts.

The lesson?  You can have a great draft but even a handful of  selections that  don’t pan out might sink your playoff chances.

800 OPS Batters: 
Stan Musial: .864 OPS,306 / .348 / .516, 348 TB, 119 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Walter Johnson: 3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14 W
Cliff Melton: 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 11 W
Chris Carpenter: 3.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Eric Gagne: 2.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 37 Saves
Armando Benetiz: 2.79, 1.23 ERA
Rob Murphy: 2.47 ERA

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 22: Joe Berry 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHP, 136 IP in relief

Bust Draft Pick
None, though one could argue Nellie Fox isn’t a 5th round pick (.279 / .341 / .305)


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket

Sunday, June 10, 2012

20 Resims: #14 Saginaw Slammers


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


In truth, it’s fairly remarkable this team ranked 14th.  To refresh your memory on the history of the Slammers, the original owner suddenly disappeared after making his 4th round draft pick.  He didn’t let me know he quit, so several rounds went by before I pulled the plug on his ownership.

Then, it took several days to find a replacement owner and during that time, fellow owner Sean S and I teamed up to make some picks to ensure we didn’t have complete dud of a team.

Finally, Jason S took over and we enjoyed smooth sailing every since.  The point of the long story is that if ever there was a team setup to fail, it was this one.  Instead, the Slammers won an average of 80 games per season and made the playoffs 4 times, including 2 division titles.

The team was almost the very definition of average – 13th in Run Scored and 12th in Runs against.  They had a great season in resim #12 winning 97 and recording a +125 run differential.

The strength of Saginaw lie in their bullpen. Four pitchers maintained ERA’s under 3.25 and a 5th, Darren O’Day, recorded a 2.79 ERA in 11 innings per season (216 total resim innings).

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Warren Hacker: 3.99 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Joel Horlen: 3.98 ERA

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Hideki Okajima: 2.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 78 IP
John Wetteland: 3.18 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 35 Saves
Jeff Gray: 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Bill Henry: 2.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 25: Randy Tomlin 3.90 ERA, 141 IP in relief

Bust Draft Pick
Nothing major, but Rd 4 pick George Davis recorded a .650 OPS.  On the other hand, he is a good fielding shortstop that stole 45 bases


 Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers

Saturday, June 9, 2012

20 Resims: #15 Willets Point "Mechanics"


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.



Matt B’s “Mechanics” almost recorded ATB history.  Had 5th starter Mordecai Brown just given up a handful of less earned runs per year, he would have been listed under the “Sub 4.00 ERA Starters” for the first time in league history.  Brown, loved by so many, for so many years, is typically a perennial disappointment in ATB.  This year, while not dominant, he was a league average pitcher thanks to the pitcher friendly home turf of Willets Point, which had the second lowest Raw OPS in the league.  Brown went 11-11 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 197 innings.

The rest of the pitching rotation was good as well with each member easily besting a 4.00 ERA.  Garland Braxton was the best of them, giving up 206 hits in 230 innings.

The major issue for Willets Point was scoring runs.  The park didn’t help matters much, but once you go past their first three offensive picks (Tip O’Neill, Larry Walker, and Fred Lynn) there wasn’t much quality to go around.

Troy Tulowitzki (see below) was a major bust as was Johnny Bench (.591 OPS).

Still, Willets Point was a good team in sims, making the playoffs as a Wild Card 8 times and maxing out as a 91 win team in Sim 17.

800 OPS Batters:
Tip O’Neill:  .825 OPS

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Garland Braxton: 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 12 W
Eddie Cicotte: 3.77 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Willie Mitchell: 3.57 ERA
Clayton Kershaw: 3.87 ERA

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Dale Murray: 3.10 ERA, 124 IP

Best Value Draft Pick
RD 19: Dale Murray 17 Saves

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5: Troy Tulowitzki .253 / .304 / .314



Division Summary


Not a particularly good showing in the AL West.

Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”

Updated Career Manager Standings

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/ATB_Mgr_Stand.htm



1) 648 Pts - Lou Poulas (0 Chg)
2) 631 Pts - Justin Petronzi (0 Chg)
3) 630 Pts - Mike Smitko (0 Chg)
4) 595 Pts - Steve Chippendale (0 Chg)
5) 574 Pts - Sean Seeley (0 Chg)
6) 566 Pts - Brad Peterson (1 Chg)
7) 563 Pts - Jason Bernarndon (-1 Chg)
8) 551 Pts - Justin Burnson (22 Chg)
9) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski (-1 Chg)
10) 530 Pts - TJ Olszewski (0 Chg)
11) 528 Pts - Joe Terry (-2 Chg)
12) 526 Pts - Jeff Burns (1 Chg)
13) 524 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter (-2 Chg)
14) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein (-2 Chg)
15) 494 Pts - Jay Seeley (1 Chg)
16) 493 Pts - Shotgun Spratling (2 Chg)
17) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas (-3 Chg)
18) 482 Pts - Matt Brody (-3 Chg)
19) 467 Pts - Michael Rippe (2 Chg)
20) 465 Pts - Leane Sarubbi (2 Chg)
21) 460 Pts - Ivar Anderson (-4 Chg)
22) 458 Pts - Brian Barnes (-2 Chg)
23) 428 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh (0 Chg)
24) 422 Pts - Matt Hinzpeter (0 Chg)
25) 421 Pts - Kevin Crowley (-6 Chg)
26) 398 Pts - Ben Matsil (0 Chg)
27) 393 Pts - Jay Hattem (-2 Chg)
28) 378 Pts - Devon Eckhart (0 Chg)
29) 378 Pts - Andy Matsil (0 Chg)
30) 358 Pts - Allen Cherulnik  (-3 Chg)
31) 345 Pts - Adam Bloomquist (0 Chg)
32) 306 Pts - Scott Carter (0 Chg)
33) 297 Pts - Mike Green (NA Chg)
34) 275 Pts - Bruce Nalepka (-1 Chg)
35) 256 Pts - Larry Caggiano (-1 Chg)
36) 253 Pts - David Kuenn (NA Chg)
37) 235 Pts - Jim Nugent (-2 Chg)
38) 235 Pts - Richard Madachik (-2 Chg)
39) 231 Pts - Mike Wishnick (-2 Chg)
40) 231 Pts - Scott Salley (-2 Chg)
41) 228 Pts - Gary Gambino (NA Chg)
42) 225 Pts - Dennis Slinger (-3 Chg)
43) 216 Pts - Bob Lessard (-3 Chg)
44) 213 Pts - Paul Nebenfuer (NA Chg)
45) 210 Pts - Greg Stillwagon (-4 Chg)
46) 207 Pts - Joe Valenzano (NA Chg)
47) 207 Pts - Jason Schwartz (NA Chg)
48) 198 Pts - John Wolford (-6 Chg)
49) 194 Pts - Chris Kelly (-6 Chg)
50) 188 Pts - Rod Aukamp (-6 Chg)
51) 188 Pts - Adam Luther (-6 Chg)
52) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes (-6 Chg)
53) 173 Pts - Paul Taschereau Jr (-6 Chg)
54) 167 Pts - Neil Book (-6 Chg)
55) 164 Pts - Mario Iafrate & Russ Palmer (-6 Chg)


Friday, June 8, 2012

Gore, Cobb stun the Biscuits late; Carnies Win!

World Series Game 6
Otherton Fishbiscuits @ Bertrand Island Carnies



Falling short of title chances since 2006, owner Lou P and his Bertrand Island Carnies defeated the Otherton Fishbicuits 6-5 in 10 innings, winning the ATB XIV World Series in 6 games.  

The Fishbiscuits, despite a poor start from Addie Joss, never yielded, using an incredible 8 total pitchers in the game.  In the end, and perhaps fittingly in the minds of the baseball gods, Pete Alexander gave up the game winning hit..  Alexander as you may recall, was drafted by the Carnies as their ace starter, but after an incredibly dissappointing first half, was jettisoned in a mid season trade for Joe Wood, who didn't throw a pitch in any of the playoff series.

The Fishbiscuits had Carnie starter Curt Schilling on the ropes early, smacking 5 hits and drawing a walk in the first three innings.  The opportunities were squandered though, and the visiting Biscuits didn't score until the fourth on a solo shot by Fred Clarke.

Otherton added two in 5th on a Hank Aaron  home run, and two more in the 6th on a Placido Polanco single.  Polanco's single gave Otherton back the lead at 5-4.

An inning prior, the Carnies put up a crooked number thanks to a Fred Carroll run scoring double and a rare Ty Cobb home run.  Their first run of the game occured in the 4th on a Johhne Mize double to right.

Four relievers would  hold the Biscuit lead in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings, eventually turning the game over to a shocked Trevor Hoffman.  Shocked because Hoffman, having seen all of 12 innings in the regular season, was now on the hook for the save and forcing a Game 7.

How exactly did this happen?  A quirk in how the Fishbiscuit bullpen was constructed.  Joakim Soria, both the long reliever, #1 setup man, and #2 closer, entered the game in the 5th with his team leading 3-2.  This would, of course, have repercussions later in the game.  After letting two inherited runners score, Soria did make the final out in the 5th but didn't come out in the 6th.

That job went to Kent Tekulve, the #2 long reliever, #2 setup man, and also the teams closer.  By the time the 6th inning was complete, the Biscuits had burned through the best two setup men and closers on the roster.  

Al Grabowski, Hong-Chi Kuo, and Andrew Bailey pitched stellar 7th and 8th innings leaving the bullpen depleted and the ball in Hoffman's hands.

George Gore took a first pitch fastball deep down the right field line for a lead off double.  He moved to third on a Sac Fly and a walk later, scored on an Orator Shaffer grounder between first and second.  Hoffman got out of the inning with a double play on the next batter, but the damage was done and the game was tied.

Otherton put runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs, but Honus Wagner was robbed of a hit when Ty Cobb made a wonderful diving catch on a sinking line drive to centerfield.  The shot would have easily scored a run had Cobb not been roaming center.

Hoffman came out for the 10th and as we seem to see so often, faced the player who ended the previous inning with a great catch.  Cobb singled and Hoffman, rattled, walked the next batter on 4 pitches.  

This brought Frank Baker to the plate and Otherton signaled for a reliever.  It was Pete Alexander.  Baker sacrificed the runners up a base and rather face Frank Thomas, Otherton gave him the intentional pass.

The 9th inning sparkplug Gore was up next, and the left fielder drove in the league winning run on a liner to right field.

The series MVP was Cobb.  He batted .462 with a .731 slugging, scoring 7 and driving in 5.  He led the Carnies in hits, doubles, triples, and stolen bases.

Starting Pitchers Results
Joss (OFB)::::::4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Schilling(BIC): 5.0IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

20 Resims: # 16 North Podunk Banana Bears


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


This is why we play the games.  The North Podunk Banana bears had the second most wins in ATB this season and sported an outstanding +143 Run Differential, tops in the National League.  However, in the 20 resims they never approached either of these figures and come in as a very disappointing 17th ranked team.  With 96 regular season wins and a max win potential of 97, the Bears received just about every break possible en route to their NL East Division Title.

What happened?  First, and perhaps foremost, owner Mike G was the most active owner in our leagues history. In a 13 week season (12 weeks of regular season, plus 1 week of playoffs) Mike submitted an unheard of 26 lineups.  It is entirely possible that his active hand and lineup machinations allowed the Banana Bears to over perform.

On the other hand, it may have just been pure luck.  Let’s take a more in depth look at some of the regulars:


Somewhat speechless here.  Reggie Jackson had a career type year, coming in with an .876 OPS vs. a resim average OPS of .770 (which by the way was directly in line with his career ATB average of .770).  Lenny Dykstra and Jim Genitely also significantly outperformed their resim averages.

The excellence of pitching staff was even more pronounced, every regular except Harry Brecheen outperformed their 20 resim baseline in the ATB regular season.  And Brecheen did exactly as he was supposed to.  Look at third starter Lefty Gomez, almost a full run and half better then he should have been.

In all, the Banana Bears made the playoffs just three times but they were still a good team.  They had a winning record 10 times, including 7 occasions with Wins in the mid 80’s or better.

Mike G had an awesome year.  Hey may not have had an awesome team, but he had a good one, and as so many owners can attest, not many can say that in a rookie season.

800 OPS Batters: 
George Brett: .809 OPS, 91 Runs

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Harry Brecheen: 12 W, 3.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Jesse Tannehill: 12 W, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Kevin Millwood: 13 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
John Smoltz: 3.05 ERA, 36 IIP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 24: Ryan Braun - .285 / .336 / .443 in a platoon

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 2: Joe Morgan batting .229 with a .329 OBP.  In general, many owners, including myself, panicked when the great infielders were taken early.  We all decided to jump on the next best available, but situations like this occurred too often.  This simply isn’t enough offense for a second round selection.


#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears